Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDCAD finds equilibrium, but the Canadian dollar remains strong

Investors in the USDCAD pair are assessing the latest statistics and forecasts. The Bank of Canada’s actions will determine further movements.

USDCAD trading key points

• The market is considering Canada’s employment market statistics
• The Bank of Canada may lower interest rates at every meeting until the end of 2024
• USDCAD price targets: 1.3696, 1.3600, 1.3530, and 1.3473

Fundamental analysis

The Canadian dollar has stabilised against the US dollar after strengthening markedly in July. The USDCAD pair is hovering around 1.3635.

Investors were prompted to react to last week’s Canadian employment market statistics release. The unemployment rate rose 6.4% from 6.2% in June, with the economy losing approximately 1,400 jobs. Although this is not the largest possible loss, signs of economic weakness are increasing.

The USD’s depreciation also contributed to the previous drop in the USDCAD pair. The slowing US economy is causing widespread concern, intensifying the focus on interest rates. The likelihood of a Bank of Canada interest rate cut at its July meeting is estimated at 60%. If this occurs, it will mark the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, with markets anticipating a total reduction of 55 basis points by the end of the year.

If the Bank of Canada lowers interest rates again on 24 July, the market will likely interpret this as a signal for further cuts at each subsequent meeting unless unforeseen events happen.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD: Nagel’s and Powell’s speeches may give hope for the euro’s strengthening

The EURUSD pair continues strengthening ahead of officials’ speeches and amid the rising US national debt.

Wednesday, 10 July 2024, is rich in speeches from the central bank and Fed’s chiefs and officials. A speech by the president of the Deutsche Bundesbank (concurrently a member of the ECB Governing Council) may shed light on the future EU monetary policy and help strengthen the euro against the US dollar. A subsequent speech by Deutsche Bundesbank official Sabine Mauderer may bolster the words of the Deutsche Bundesbank president.

Comments from the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are due after the US trading session opens, potentially adding to the market volatility and providing insight into the future of US interest rates. The increasing US national debt also works against the US dollar.

Although any market movements can be expected in this environment, the general situation does not favour the US currency at this stage. The euro is more likely to strengthen than the US dollar.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range continues to develop above 1.0806. This level is considered crucial for the EURUSD pair today, 10 July 2024, with the market receiving support at this level. A rise to 1.0844 is expected. If this level breaks, the price could climb to the local target of 1.0888. After reaching this target, the price is expected to decline to 1.0840 (testing from above). Subsequently, another growth structure could follow, aiming for 1.0900.



The Federal Reserve chair’s speech, rising US national debt, and technical indicators suggest a potential correction towards the 1.0888 and 1.0900 targets.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY is rising amid uncertainty about the BoJ’s actions

The USDJPY rate closely approached weekly highs on Thursday, 11 July 2024. The current USDJPY exchange rate is 161.68.

USDJPY trading key points

• Uncertainty about the BoJ’s actions: traders awaiting a rate hike
• Japan’s machinery orders: unexpected decrease of 3.2% in May
• USDJPY price targets: 162.00 and 162.52

Fundamental analysis

Intrigue regarding the pace of monetary policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan remains. Markets anticipate that the BoJ may raise interest rates in late July in an attempt to curb the yen’s weakening. Analysts’ opinions vary, with some believing this will not be enough to halt USDJPY growth in the long term.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance officials reiterated their readiness for currency market interventions. Although they currently have a limited effect, they help to keep the yen weakening slowly and moderately.

Recent data showed an unexpected 3.2% (m/m) decline in Japan’s core machinery orders in May, indicating a potential economic slowdown. This is another signal favouring a further decline in the yen’s rate.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

The GBPUSD pair hit a monthly peak

The GBPUSD pair is appreciating markedly; market sentiment is positive. The Bank of England is gathering additional arguments in favour of falling inflation.

The British pound sterling appears strong against the US dollar. The latest growth impulse was driven by a statement made by Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill. He noted that additional evidence of a sustained decline in inflation was necessary before deciding to lower interest rates. Pill believes rising prices in the services sector and overall wage growth negatively impact consumer prices.

UK inflation reached the 2% target in May. However, according to Pill, more is needed as this could be a temporary phenomenon.

The market currently expects borrowing costs to be reduced at the September meeting. According to stock market forecasts, two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each are possible by the end of the year.

GBPUSD technical analysis

Based on analysis as of 12 July 2024, the GBPUSD pair has reached the growth wave’s local target of 1.2945. Today, a correction might start, aiming for 1.2777. After the correction, the price could rise to 1.2950, marking the completion of growth potential. Subsequently, a decline wave could begin, targeting 1.2610.



The pound sterling is rising steadily and has reached a monthly high. Technical analysis suggests that the GBPUSD rate will continue its upward trajectory to the 1.2950 target.

Read more - GBPUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD continues to rise: demand for risk wins over caution

The EURUSD pair remains in positive territory, but the market acts carefully. It has yet to evaluate the consequences of an assassination attempt on Trump.

The EURUSD pair suspended but did not halt its growth, with the main movements around 1.0892 at the start of the week.

Friday’s US statistics were surprising. The producer price index in June rose by 0.2% m/m from the zero value in May in line with the 0.2% forecast. The indicator increased by 2.6% year-over-year from the previous 2.4%. Manufacturing inflation is rising, which may alert the US Federal Reserve and prompt it to maintain elevated interest rates longer than necessary.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 66.0 points in July, falling short of forecasts of 69.5, which may also be attributed to the inflationary environment.

The weekend events could not but impact the market. This refers to the incident with former US President Donald Trump, who was shot in the ear at his rally in Pennsylvania.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.0888 and extended it to 1.0910. Today, 15 July 2024, the market returned to 1.0881. The price is expected to breach this level and extend the range down to 1.0858, representing the first target for correction. A corrective wave could practically form, with the main target at 1.0808. After the correction, another growth structure might develop towards 1.0950, marking the completion of growth potential.



Volatility in the EURUSD pair will increase during the US presidential race. Technical indicators point to a further correction towards the 1.0808 target. A growth wave could start once the correction is complete, aiming for 1.0950.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JPY loses ground after strengthening

Yen’s attempts to strengthen failed. The Japanese currency continues to lose ground against the US dollar.

USDJPY trading key points

• Japan’s services PMI (m/m): previously at 2.2%, currently at -0.4%
• US core retail sales index (m/m): previously at -0.1%, forecasted at 0.1%
• US retail sales (m/m): previously at 0.1%, forecasted at -0.3%
• USDJPY price targets: 155.00 and 154.55

Fundamental analysis

After attempting to strengthen against the US dollar, the yen begins to lose ground. Japan’s services PMI (m/m) was forecasted to be positive but decreased to -0.4%, affecting the USDJPY rate not in favour of the yen.

The US core retail sales index and retail sales are projected to rise slightly. After the release of actual data, this may help strengthen the US dollar against the yen. However, actual values could be worse than forecasted. In this case, the USDJPY rate may continue to decline as part of a corrective wave.

Hopes for the yen’s strengthening and stabilisation are fading away every day. Although currency intervention can save the yen, the Bank of Japan is not yet ready for it.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

NZD rises amid easing inflation

The NZDUSD rate is rising on Wednesday, 17 July 2024, after rebounding from the support level. The price earlier reached a two-month low.

New Zealand’s services PMI decreased by 2.4 points to 40.2 in June 2024, reaching the lowest level in 17 months. This is the fourth consecutive decline, indicating a significant slowdown in the services sector. Due to this, the NZDUSD rate reached a two-month low.

However, today, investors reacted positively to the news that New Zealand’s annual inflation eased to 3.3% in Q2 from 4.0% in the previous quarter, marking the lowest level in three years. The New Zealand dollar recouped some losses, rising above 0.6081. Despite this data, markets are still pricing in about three interest rate cuts by the end of the year.

The RBNZ kept the interest rate at 5.5% last week but hinted at a potential future easing of monetary policy if inflation continues to slow. This increased the chances of an interest rate cut at the August meeting which is currently estimated by markets at 53%.

NZDUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the NZDUSD pair completed a decline wave, reaching 0.6031. Today, 17 July 2024, a correction towards 0.6098 is expected. Once the correction is complete, a new decline wave could start, aiming for the local target of 0.6022. Subsequently, the price could rise to 0.6064 (testing from below) before falling to 0.5977, the estimated target.



Despite growth driven by easing inflation, the New Zealand dollar could weaken due to a significant decline in business activity in the services sector. Technical analysis of the NZDUSD pair suggests that the trend could continue to the 0.6022 and 0.5977 targets.

Read more - NZDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) could reach new all-time highs amid US news

Gold continues to rise on Thursday, 18 July 2024, offsetting Wednesday’s correction.

XAUUSD trading key points

• The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (US): previously at 1.3%, forecasted at 2.7%
• A speech by US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) official Mary C. Daly
• XAUUSD price targets: 2,434.84, 2,400.00, and 2,386.50

Fundamental analysis

This week’s economic data showed a slight increase, helping the precious metal strengthen its position against the US dollar. XAUUSD quotes are maintaining their upward trajectory.

US economic data, including the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, is scheduled for release today. The indicator is projected to rise to 2.7% but it is difficult to foresee what will come. Weaker-than-expected data may exert pressure on the US dollar and push gold prices further up.

A speech by US FOMC official Mary C. Daly last time negatively impacted the US dollar. Investors expect this speech to answer questions about future interest rate changes and inflation growth or slowdown rates. Any response from Mary C. Daly may trigger an immediate market reaction, potentially pushing the XAUUSD to new all-time highs.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

AUD falls again, marking the fifth consecutive day of decline

The AUDUSD pair continues to lose ground. The market is selling off risky assets.

The Australian dollar, in the pair with its US counterpart, has been steadily and uninterruptedly falling for five days. The AUDUSD pair reached 0.6698, the lowest level in the last two weeks. The sell-off is associated with the strengthening of the US dollar.

According to recent data, Australia’s unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%. At the same time, June’s job growth is notable, indicating heightened tension in the employment sector, which elevates concerns about an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Investors are now pricing in a 20% possibility of an RBA interest rate hike in August, whereas the figure did not exceed 12% a couple of days ago.

AUDUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair has completed a decline wave, reaching 0.6699. A consolidation range is expected to form above this level today, 19 July 2024. With an upward breakout, a growth wave could start, aiming for 0.6750 and potentially continuing to 0.6811.



The Australian dollar came under pressure from the USD and employment market data. Technical analysis for the AUDUSD pair suggests a growth wave to the 0.6750 and 0.6811 targets.

Read more - AUDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JPY is rising amid expectations of BoJ policy tightening

The USDJPY rate declines on Monday morning, 22 July 2024, after a two-day growth. The current USDJPY exchange rate is 156.55.

USDJPY trading key points

• Japan’s inflation continues to rise
• The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates next week
• USDJPY price targets: 158.28, 154.80, and 154.66

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen is rising after rebounding from the 157.60 resistance level. Investors expect the BoJ to raise interest rates next week amid rising inflation. Consequently, the USDJPY rate has fallen by more than 2% over the past two weeks.

Investors believe the Japanese government is already intervening in the currency market to support the national currency rate. The Bank of Japan’s data shows that the authorities could have purchased about 6 trillion yen a week ago.

Although Japan’s inflation remained at 2.8% in June, the core index, excluding food and energy prices, jumped to 2.6%. This data reinforces traders’ view that the BoJ may start tightening monetary policy despite potential risks for the country’s weak economy. The possibility of the yen’s rate rising further in the near term persists.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team