Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Congratulations to the IB Challenge winners

TIFIA is happy to congratulate the winners and participants of the IB Challenge contest.

Here is the list of our three winners.
https://tifia.com/company/company-news/id/1123

The full rating of the contest is available here:
https://tifia.com/en/contests/regional/ib-contest

Sincerely yours,
Tifia Markets Limited

Opening of Tifia's office in China

Tifia: international company with offices all across the globe The Tifia group is proud to inform its clients of its business expansion and opening of a new office in the city of Yiwu, China.At the end of the last week, Tifia's representatives opened an office in Yiwu, China. The new office will provide Tifia's clients working and living in China easier communication with the Company: from now on you can contact our local office or come in person whenever you want.


The office is open on working days.Working hours:9:00 – 17:30, Monday to Friday
Address:No. 877, Chengbei Road, Yiwu City, Block 17F-A, Yuye BuildingPhone number +8613818472902
WeChat
https://tifia.com/cn
Join the community of successful traders and investors - now in China!

GBP/USD: The British economy is recovering
05/06/2018

Current dynamics
Published at the beginning of today's European session, positive macro data on the UK services sector, supported the pound. According to the research company IHS Markit, the index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK services sector increased to 54.0 in May from 52.8 in April (the forecast was 53.0), reaching the highest level in three months. The values of the index above 50 indicate an increase in activity.
Activity in the services sector in the UK increased in May, which was another signal for the country's economic recovery after weakening at the beginning of the year. On Friday, a similar report was submitted for the UK manufacturing sector, which also indicated an acceleration of activity in May. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector assesses the business climate and conditions in the manufacturing sector. As this sector forms a significant part of the final indicator of the UK GDP, the PMI production index is an important indicator of the business environment and the general state of the British economy. The figure above the 50 mark is a positive (or bullish) factor for GBP. The production PMI came out on Friday with the value for May 54.4 (the forecast was 53.5, and 53.9 in April). The production growth accelerated to the highest level in the current year against the backdrop of the strongest growth in inventories over the entire 26-year history of observations and a sharp reduction in outstanding orders.
The services sector and the manufacturing sector of the economy form the bulk of the UK GDP. Growth in these sectors indicates a positive trend and the restoration of the British economy, despite the continuing uncertainty of Brexit. There is less than a year left before the end of Brexit.
Many economists believe that signs of recovery in the second quarter may increase the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of England in the coming months, perhaps even in August.
So, one of the nine members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Silvano Tenreiro, said last Monday that it expects "several" increases in the cost of borrowing by mid-2012, although the exact terms for each of them is "an open question".
The next meeting of the Bank of England, dedicated to monetary policy, is scheduled for June 21. And now investors will monitor the data, which may allow the central bank to hint at raising rates this year.
The next important data on inflation, which may affect the determination of the Bank of England to raise the rate in the coming months, will come later this week.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3337, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050
Resistance levels: 1.3395, 1.3460, 1.3575, 1.3650, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4000

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3325. Stop-Loss 1.3395. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3050
Buy Stop 1.3395. Stop-Loss 1.3325. Take-Profit 1.3460, 1.3575, 1.3620, 1.3800, 1.3970



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

EUR/USD: this year the ECB can curtail the large-scale program QE
06/06/2018

Current dynamics
According to the chief economist of the ECB, Peter Pret, the ECB is close to achieving the conditions under which it is possible to complete the program of buying bonds. According to Pret, the Eurozone labor market is strengthening. The unemployment rate is declining, and this accelerates the growth of wages, which is becoming a key condition for stronger inflation, the target level of which is just below 2%.
Now, as part of the quantitative easing program, the central bank buys assets at 30 billion euros a month and will continue to purchase at least until September.
Since the beginning of the current week, the Euro has been growing on the information that at a meeting on June 12 the ECB may discuss an exit from the quantitative easing program.
At the end of last week, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, Sabine Lautenschlager, said that the ECB could decide at the June meeting to close the asset purchase program later this year.
Peter Pret signaled on Wednesday that the central bank's leaders are increasingly confident in the return of inflation in the Eurozone to the target level amidst the strength of the economy and the growth of salaries. This means that this year the bank can curtail a large-scale asset purchase program.
Nevertheless, more conservative investors believe that the growth of the euro will be limited, even if at a meeting on June 12 the ECB will signal the completion of the QE program. As ECB President Mario Draghi previously said, interest rates will remain near zero for a long time, even if the quantitative easing program is curtailed.
And it is this issue that will be decisive in determining the direction of the further movement of the euro and the EUR / USD.
Later on Wednesday, the attention of market participants will switch to publication (at 12:30 GMT) of important macro statistics from the US, including data on the foreign trade balance for April. In the last month, the US trade deficit narrowed from -57.6 billion dollars to -49 billion dollars. If the data again indicates the growth of the deficit, the dollar may fall. In any case, at the time of publication of macro data, volatility in currency pairs with the dollar, including in the EUR / USD, can significantly increase.
Before the meetings of the ECB and the Fed next week, investors will attach great importance to macro data.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.1755, 1.1695, 1.1660, 1.1630, 1.1570, 1.1520
Resistance levels: 1.1790, 1.1860, 1.1900, 1.1935, 1.2000

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1730. Stop-Loss 1.1810. Take-Profit 1.1695, 1.1660, 1.1630, 1.1570, 1.1520
Buy Stop 1.1810. Stop-Loss 1.1730. Take-Profit 1.1860, 1.1900, 1.1935, 1.2000


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CAD: the uptrend remains in force
07/06/2018

Current dynamics
At the end of last week, as expected, the Bank of Canada did not begin to change the interest rate, leaving it at 1.25%. As Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri said earlier last month, the Bank of Canada "has to hedge itself because of the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations". The uncertainty associated with the prolongation or amendment of the terms of the NAFTA negatively affects the quotes of the Canadian currency.
In addition, since June 1, US import duties on steel and aluminum (25% and 10%, respectively), including those supplied from Canada, have come into effect.
Last Thursday, Canadian Prime Minister Jasin Trudeau announced a response to the United States duties. The total value of imports from the US, which will be subject to new duties, is 16.6 billion Canadian dollars (12.8 billion US dollars). This corresponds to the value of Canada's exports to the US for 2017. This is the strongest response measures that the country has decided to apply since the Second World War.
Weaker oil prices also put pressure on CAD. The Canadian economy largely depends on the export of raw materials, primarily oil and oil products. The largest partner of Canada and the buyer of Canadian oil are the United States.
On Thursday (15:15 GMT), the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz will begin. He will explain the bank's position and assess the current economic situation in the country. If the tone of Stephen Poloz's speech is tough with respect to the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, the Canadian dollar will strengthen on the foreign exchange market. If Stephen Poloz expresses his support for maintaining soft monetary policy, the Canadian currency will decline. In any case, during the speech of Stephen Poloz high volatility in trading on the Canadian dollar is expected.
Investors also want to hear the opinion of Poloz about NAFTA's prospects and regarding Canada's counter measures after the introduction of US import duties on steel and aluminum.
Also, the dynamics of the Canadian dollar could be affected by the publication on Friday (12:30 GMT) of data on the Canadian labor market for May.
Unemployment in April was 5.8%. In the case of rising unemployment and a decrease in the number of employed, the Canadian dollar will decline. If the data prove to be better than the forecast, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. However, the impact of this publication on the dynamics of USD / CAD will be short-term, and the upward trend of the pair USD / CAD in the current situation is likely to continue.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2937, 1.2900, 1.2875, 1.2790, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2550
Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3045, 1.3080, 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3450

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2975. Take-Profit 1.2875, 1.2790, 1.2740
Buy Stop 1.2975. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.3045, 1.3080, 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3450



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

S&P500: the focus of traders - meeting G7
08/06/2018

Current dynamics
The focus of traders at the end of the week is the G7 meeting. Leaders of the G-7 countries are due to meet in Québec on Friday for a two-day meeting, during which the issues of trade relations will be discussed after the introduction of the US import duties on steel and aluminum.
As is known, since June 1, import duties on steel and aluminum imported from the EU, Canada, and Mexico have started to operate in the United States. Steel and aluminum from other countries are subject to import duty (25% and 10%, respectively) as early as March.
At the end of May, G7 finance ministers held a meeting in Canada, following which a public protest was issued against the introduction of new import duties on steel and aluminum. The European Union is ready to introduce counter restrictions of € 6.4 billion, Canada - $ 12.8 billion. Nevertheless, the White House insists on continuing pressure on trading partners. "When the foreign trade deficit is almost 800 billion dollars a year, one can not afford to lose a trade war", Trump wrote on his Twitter page on Saturday. "The US has been ripped off by other countries for years, it's time to start thinking", he added.
French President Macron said on Thursday that due to the recently announced US steel and aluminum duties against the EU and Canada, the remaining six members of the G-7 will have to unite in their own strength. Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau said that he will remain faithful to the interests of Canadian citizens, even if this entails contradictions between neighbors. To this Trump replied on Twitter: "Please tell Prime Minister Trudeau and President Macron that they are charging huge fees and imposing non-tariff restrictions on the United States".
Many investors believe that the tension in trade issues will increase the restless situation in the stock markets.
The yield of 10-year US government bonds fell to 2,915% today from 2,933%. The demand for asylum assets - yen, franc, gold - is again growing.
World stock markets on Friday are falling amid growing tension in trade on the eve of an important G7 summit.
It is likely that up to the end of today's trading day, stock indices in Europe and the US will remain under pressure.
Nevertheless, the bullish trend of the US stock market so far remains in force.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2745.0, 2716.0, 2673.0, 2640.0, 2630.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2780.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2740.0. Stop-Loss 2785.0. Objectives 2716.0, 2673.0, 2640.0, 2630.0
Buy Stop 2785.0. Stop-Loss 2740.0. Objectives 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

DJIA: activity of traders is low before important events
13/06/2018
Current dynamics
After Tuesday's meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, and also in anticipation of the outcome of the meetings of the central banks of the US and the Eurozone, the world stock indices retain a restrained-positive dynamic.
It is widely expected that today the Fed will raise the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75% -2%. The probability of such an increase is estimated by investors at 94%. This scenario is already included in the prices. Investors will be concerned with the question of how many more increases the Fed can make before the end of the year - one or two. The decision on the rates of the Fed will be published at 18:00 (GMT), and at 18:30 a press conference will begin at which the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will explain the decision taken by the Fed, and also express the opinion of the FRS leadership on the prospects for economic growth in the US.
Published on Tuesday, the data again pointed to the steady strengthening of inflation in the US, which should convince the Fed to further gradually increase interest rates. The consumer price index (CPI) in May grew by 2.8% compared to the same period last year. Thus, last month the annual price increase was the strongest since February 2012.
The labor market in the US remains stable, and unemployment reached 3.8% in May, the lowest level since 1969. The last time the unemployment rate was 3.8% was recorded in April 2000. The average hourly earnings in the US in May rose by 0.3% (against the forecast of + 0.2% and + 0.1% in April) and by 2.7% (in annual terms).
The US economy continues to grow more confident than others, the macroeconomic situation in the US remains favorable, indicating that it is possible to raise rates after today's meeting more than once.
Market participants will closely follow Powell's speech to catch signals about the Fed's tougher position on monetary policy. If Powell unequivocally signals about the possibility of 4 rate increases this year, then the dollar can become sharply stronger. But the stock indices can again turn to the "south".
Investors also do not forget about the risks and threats that have emerged against the backdrop of escalating trade contradictions between the US and major trade and economic partners, such as China, the EU, Canada.
Thus, the monetary policy of central banks, as well as the threat of escalation of trade wars, will be the main driver in the financial markets in the short term.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 25240.0, 24800.0, 24425.0, 24050.0, 23750.0
Resistance levels: 25425.0, 25750.0, 26300.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 25430.0. Stop-Loss 25200.0. Take-Profit 25750.0, 26300.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 25200.0. Stop-Loss 25430.0. Take-Profit 25000.0, 24800.0, 24425.0, 24050.0, 23750.0


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: rate hike could happen in August
14/06/2018

Current dynamics
Published on Wednesday, disappointing inflation data contributed to the weakening of the pound and the fall of the GBP / USD. The consumer price index (CPI) in May grew by 2.4% compared to the same period of the previous year, as in April.
The published data indicate that inflationary pressure in the UK remains, despite the restrained growth of wages. The leadership of the Bank of England, headed by Mark Carney, has repeatedly signaled that it expects two or three increases in borrowing costs in the UK over the next two years in order to bring inflation back to a 2% target.
The inflation report released on Wednesday may strengthen expectations for another small increase in borrowing costs, as the data signals that inflationary pressures are on the rise. Growth in company sales prices accelerated in May for the first time in six months. The producer price index rose by 2.9% compared to the same period of the previous year, after rising by 2.5% in April.
On Thursday, strong retail sales data was released, which pushed the pound up.
Compared to May of the previous year, retail sales in May grew by 3.9%. Compared to the previous month, sales increased by 1.3%, although they were projected to increase by only 0.3%. In April, retail sales grew by 1.6%.
On published data and after yesterday's decision of the Fed to raise rates the GBP / USD rose by 70 points from the opening of the trading day.
The next meeting of the Bank of England, dedicated to monetary policy, is scheduled for June 21. And now investors are watching the data, which may allow the central bank to hint at raising rates this year.
Economists expect that the next rate increase may occur in August.
In anticipation of this decision of the Bank of England, the pound may continue to strengthen, including in the GBP / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3000
Resistance levels: 1.3490, 1.3560, 1.3650, 1.3800, 1.3980, 1.4000

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3370. Stop-Loss 1.3450. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3000
Buy Stop 1.3450. Stop-Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3560, 1.3620, 1.3800, 1.3980



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

XAU/USD: demand for gold will be supported as for an asset-shelter
15/06/2018
Current dynamics
Despite the decision of the Fed to raise the rate and a statement of intent to further tighten monetary policy in the US, gold prices on Thursday reached the highest level for the month near the mark of 1309.00 dollars per ounce.
Investors once again remembered geopolitical tensions and the threat of a large-scale world trade war.
President of the United States Donald Trump approved the introduction of duties on the import of goods from China worth about 50 billion dollars.
On Thursday, high-ranking representatives of the White House, officials responsible for state security, representatives of the Ministry of Finance and the US Department of Commerce held a 90-minute meeting. On Friday, the US Trade Mission intends to make public the list of goods for which duties will be distributed.
Trump does not intend to back away from taking the course to support local producers and pursuing a protectionist policy towards American goods abroad.
As you know, from June 1, the US began to apply import duties on steel and aluminum from China, the EU, and Canada. Other countries, suppliers of these goods to the United States, were sanctioned in March.
June gold futures on COMEX closed on Thursday with an increase of 0.6%, at USD 1304.00 per troy ounce, which is the maximum closing level since May 14.
US President Donald Trump's administration announced plans to introduce import duties on Chinese goods worth tens of billions of dollars in the next few days, which led traders to prepare for a new wave of geopolitical tensions.
As you know, in the context of an increase in the interest rate, the price of gold is falling, because it is more difficult for him to compete with other objects for long-term investments that generate revenue, such as, for example, government bonds. At the same time, the investment attractiveness of the dollar is growing.
In periods of aggravation of the geopolitical situation or international trade contradictions, the "swing" moves in the opposite direction and the demand for gold rises again, as investors see it as an safe-asset.
Nevertheless, despite the growth, prices in the future will face resistance of sellers of gold in favor of the dollar against the background of further tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed.
Only weak macro data from the United States, as well as an even greater strengthening of geopolitical tensions in the world, can push gold quotes higher. So far, negative dynamics prevails.
Level 1303.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) is still a strong resistance for the XAU / USD pair.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1299.00, 1283.00, 1277.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1308.00, 1325.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1309.00. Take-Profit 1290.00, 1283.00, 1277.00, 1270.00, 1248.00
Buy Stop 1309.00. Stop-Loss 1298.00. Take-Profit 1325.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

AUD/USD: amid escalation of trade contradictions
18/06/2018

Current dynamics
As you know, President Donald Trump on Friday approved a 25% import duty on Chinese goods worth $ 50 billion. After that, representatives of the Chinese authorities said that they would introduce reciprocal tariffs of the same scale on American goods.
World stock markets and commodity currencies are declining at the beginning of a new week. The aggravation of trade disagreements between the US and China negatively affects the demand of investors for risky assets.
Prices for raw materials also fall in the face of aggravation of trade contradictions, which leads to a decrease in the quotations of commodity currencies relative to the dollar.
The situation can lead to a trade war between the two largest economies in the world.
China is Australia's largest trade and economic partner. Negative information on the Chinese economy leads, as a rule, to a decrease in the quotations of the Australian dollar.
China is also the largest buyer of primary commodities in Australia, primarily iron ore, so necessary for China's industrial potential.
Concerns about the fate of the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) and the fees that the Trump administration imposed on the European allies also increase concerns in the markets.
In this situation, the demand for the US dollar, which plays the role of refuge in this situation, is growing.
Also, the decision of last week's Fed meeting contributed to the growth of the dollar, following which the Fed raised the target range of interest rates by 0.25% to 1.75% - 2.00% on Wednesday, and also signaled the possible acceleration of the rate of monetary tightening policy this year to maintain a sustainable recovery of the country's economy.
On Tuesday (01:30 GMT) the protocol from the recent meeting of the RBA, at which the bank kept the current monetary policy at the same level, will be published.
Also at the same time (01:30 GMT) on Tuesday housing price indices in Australia (for 1 quarter) will be published. The RBA is positively considering the slowdown in housing prices.
At the same time, market participants believe that the RBA will not raise interest rates until mid-2019. Salaries continue to grow slowly, and households' debt has risen to a record high, which also includes raising interest rates to a more distant future.
According to the head of the RBA Philip Lowe, "there are no serious arguments in favor of tightening monetary policy in the short term". In his opinion, "before the rate increases, some time will pass".
In any case, on Tuesday, at the time of the publication of the minutes of the RBA meeting and the Australian housing price index, volatility in the Australian currency trading is expected to grow.
At the same time, the different focus of the monetary policies of the Fed and the RBA remains the main argument in favor of further weakening of the AUD / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7410, 0.7330, 0.7270, 0.7155
Resistance level: 0.7500, 0.7575, 0.7680, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7490. Take-Profit 0.7410, 0.7330, 0.7270, 0.7155
Buy Stop 0.7510. Stop-Loss 0.7460. Take-Profit 0.7575, 0.7680



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com