Tifia Daily Market Analytics

EUR/USD: Trading Scenarios
26/07/2018

Since mid-April, EUR / USD has been trading in a downward channel on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which is near the support level 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014).
The signal for the resumption of short positions will be the break of the short-term support level 1.1690 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The target of the decline is the level of support 1.1520 (lows of the year). In case of breakdown of the support level 1.1520, the target of further decline will be the level of support 1.1285. The prevailing negative dynamics.
An alternative scenario will be connected with the breakdown of the resistance level 1.1750 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) and the rise to the resistance level 1.1850 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, the different orientation of the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB is the main negative driver for EUR / USD. Short positions are preferred.
Today, all the attention of market participants will be focused on the ECB meeting. The decision on the rates will be published at 11:45 (GMT) of the decision on rates. At 12:30 a press conference will begin. ECB President Mario Draghi will give an assessment of the prospects for the European economy and monetary policy of the ECB and explain the decision of the ECB on rates.
Any hints of Mario Draghi on the approach of the start of the curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone will cause the growth of the euro and the EUR / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.1700, 1.1690, 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1520, 1.1400, 1.1285
Resistance levels: 1.1740, 1.1750, 1.1790, 1.1850

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1680. Stop-Loss 1.1760. Take-Profit 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1520, 1.1400, 1.1285
Buy Stop 1.1760. Stop-Loss 1.1680. Take-Profit 1.1790, 1.1850



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USD/JPY: SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
31/07/2018
The yen fell on Tuesday after the decision of the Bank of Japan to maintain its current monetary policy unchanged.
The Bank of Japan retained the key short-term rate at the level of -0.1% and the zero target level of 10-year government bonds yield.
A statement by the central bank of Japan said that the bank "intends to maintain current extremely low levels of short-term and long-term interest rates for an extended period".
The Bank of Japan reiterated that it wants to achieve the target inflation rate of 2% as soon as possible, although acknowledged that inflation will not reach the target level, at least until the end of 2021.
By the beginning of the US trading session, the USD / JPY rose 0.45% to 111.60.
The USD / JPY is rising in the upward channel on the daily chart, continuing to trade above the key support levels of 110.20 (the Fibonacci level 38.2% of the pair's correction since August last year and the level of 99.90), 110.00 (EMA200 and lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
The further growth of USD / JPY with the nearest target at resistance level 113.10 (Fibonacci level 50% and maximums of the year) is probably. Long-term growth targets - the level of resistance 116.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 118.60 (highs in January 2017).
The alternative scenario will be connected with breakdown of short-term support levels of 111.30 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 111.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and further decline to the support levels 110.20, 110.00.
Nevertheless, against the background of a different focus of monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan, the upward trend is predominant. Long positions are preferred.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 111.30, 111.00, 110.20, 110.00
Resistance levels: 112.00, 112.25, 113.10, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 111.65. Stop Loss 111.20. Take-Profit 112.00, 112.25, 113.10, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
Sell Stop 111.20. Stop Loss 111.65. Take-Profit 111.00, 110.20, 110.00



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GBP/USD: Support and resistance levels
02/08/2018
From the middle of April and from the level of 1.4340, the GBP / USD fell sharply. The decrease to current levels was almost 10%. Starting in May, GBP / USD is traded in a downward channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which is near the support level of 1.2900.
Below the nearest resistance levels 1.3213 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3248 (EMA50 and the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart), only short positions should be considered.
The negative dynamics is maintained, and if the decline continues, the 1.2900 mark will be the immediate target.
The further target of the decline is the level of 1.2590 (June 2017 lows).
The signal for corrective growth will be a confirmed short-term resistance level of 1.3127 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) breakdown. In this case, the corrective growth can continue to the resistance levels 1.3213, 1.3248.
Short positions are preferred, long-term bearish trend is maintained.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3055, 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2900
Resistance levels: 1.3127, 1.3213, 1.3248, 1.3335, 1.3445

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3140. Take-Profit 1.3055, 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2900
Buy Stop 1.3140. Stop-Loss 1.3090. Take-Profit 1.3213, 1.3248, 1.3335, 1.3445


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

NZD/USD: Trading Scenarios on the eve of the RBNZ meeting
08/08/2018
Since mid-April, the NZD / USD has been trading in a downward channel, falling from the level of 0.7380. After the breakdown of the important support levels of 0.7240 (the Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014; the wave minimums are near the level of 0.6260), 0.7200 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) the NZD / USD decline accelerated. In July, NZD / USD reached multi-month lows near the 0.6690 mark. However, later, NZD / USD "fell into a drift", having spent July in the range between the levels of 0.6725, 0.6865 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%).
The negative trend persists, and NZD / USD is traded in the descending channel on the daily chart.
In case of breakdown of support levels of 0.6725, 0.6690 NZD / USD will target at May 2016 lows near the 0.6675 mark.
A signal for the development of an upward correction may be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level 0.6762 (EMA200 on a 1-hour chart). The correction target may be the level of resistance 0.6865 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the upper limit of the range formed in July). The strong negative dynamics prevails.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the side of sellers.
Below the resistance level 0.6865 short positions are preferred. The global downtrend, which began in July 2014, resumed.
Today at 22:00 (GMT) the decision of the RBNZ on the interest rate will be published. Probably, the interest rate will remain at the same level of 1.75%. If, during a press conference that starts at 11:00 pm (GMT), signals about the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the near future will sound, then the New Zealand dollar may strengthen, including against the US dollar. Nevertheless, the growth of NZD against the USD will be short-term.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.6725, 0.6700, 0.6690, 0.6675
Resistance levels: 0.6762, 0.6807, 0.6865, 0.6900, 0.6965, 0.7010

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6720. Stop-Loss 0.6765. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6690, 0.6675, 0.6600
Buy Stop 0.6765. Stop-Loss 0.6720. Take-Profit 0.6805, 0.6865, 0.6900, 0.6965, 0.7010



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

WTI: Support and resistance levels
09/08/2018
After in July, the prices for WTI oil reached the next annual maximum near the mark of 73.85 dollars per barrel, later prices fell sharply.
As a result of a sharp decline on Wednesday, the price reached the first important support level of 65.87 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
If downward dynamics develop, the targets will be support levels of 65.50 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the wave of growth, which began in June 2017 with a support level near the 42.00 mark), 64.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the side of sellers.
The bullish trend persists until WTI oil trades above the key support level 64.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
In case of return to the zone above the resistance level of 68.50 (EMA200 on a 4-hour grafik, as well as EMA50 and the lower boundary of an ascending channel on the daily chart), the price increase will resume.
Support levels: 65.87, 65.50, 64.15, 63.00, 61.00
Resistance levels: 68.50, 69.50, 70.00, 72.80, 75.00
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 65.70. Stop-Loss 66.80. Take-Profit 65.50, 64.15, 63.00, 61.00
Buy Stop 66.80. Stop-Loss 65.70. Take-Profit 68.50, 69.50, 70.00, 72.80, 75.00


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

AUD/USD: Prospects for AUD
14/08/2018

Prospects for AUD look negative against the US dollar.
The unfavorable external background (the intensification of international trade conflicts), as well as the different orientation of the monetary policies of the Fed and the RBA (economists believe that the RBA will not raise rates by the end of 2020), create fundamental prerequisites for further decline of the AUD / USD.
It is necessary to consider the possibility of entering into the short positions on AUD / USD.
This is best done by rolling back to the nearest resistance levels of 0.7290 (EMA200 on the 15-minute chart), 0.7320 (EMA200 on the 30-minute chart), 0.7350 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The immediate goal of the decline is the support level of 0.7155 (the lows of 2017 and May 2016).
The alternative scenario involves a breakdown of the resistance level of 0.7395 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the continuation of the growth to resistance levels of 0.7500 (minima of December), 0.7580 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The downward global trend that began in July 2014 predominates. Short positions are preferred.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7155, 0.7100
Resistance levels: 0.7290, 0.7320, 0.7355, 0.7395, 0.7500, 0.7580

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Sell Limit 0.7290, 0.7320, 0.7350. Stop-Loss 0.7370. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7155, 0.7100
Buy Stop 0.7410. Stop-Loss 0.7370. Take-Profit 0.7500, 0.7580



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

XAU/USD: Support and resistance levels
16/08/2018
Since mid-April, XAU / USD is trading in a downtrend. Below the key resistance level of 1277.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 61.8%) is dominated by a downward trend.
On Thursday, the pair XAU / USD moved into the corrective phase, consolidating to the nearest resistance level at 1185.00 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016).
The signal for buying and developing an alternative scenario will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level 1200.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). In this case, corrective growth can last up to resistance level 1220.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and Fibonacci level of 38.2%). Below this level, sales look safe.
Short positions are preferred. The XAU / USD on Wednesday broke the last strong support level at 1185.00 (the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016).
The breakdown of the support level of 1185.00 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6%) could mean the return of XAU / USD to the global downtrend, which began in October 2012.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1175.00, 1160.00, 1128.00
Resistance levels: 1185.00, 1200.00, 1220.00, 1237.00, 1248.00, 1268.00, 1277.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1174.00. Stop-Loss 1186.00. Take-Profit 1170.00, 1160.00, 1120.00, 1128.00
Buy Stop 1186.00. Stop-Loss 1174.00. Take-Profit 1200.00, 1220.00, 1237.00, 1248.00, 1268.00, 1277.00




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

AUD/USD: Support and resistance levels
20/08/2018
The different focus of monetary policy of central banks in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD / USD pair.
Since the beginning of the year, the AUD / USD has been actively declining. AUD / USD develops a downward trend, trading in the downward channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which near the support level of 0.7155 passes.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on long-term periods (weekly and monthly) indicate short positions.
In case of further decrease in AUD / USD, the targets will be support levels of 0.7235 (August lows), 0.7155 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart). Only in case of the return of AUD / USD to the zone above the key resistance level of 0.7570 (EMA200 on the daily chart) long-term long positions can be considered with targets at the levels of 0.7820 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the fall wave from August 2011 year and level 1.1030. The minimum of this wave is near the level of 0.6830). The signal for purchases may be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level 0.7370 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). So far, negative dynamics prevails. Short positions are preferred. The immediate goal of the decline is the support level of 0.7235 (the lows of the year and August). The AUD / USD is returning to the global downtrend, which began in August 2011.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7300, 0.7235, 0.7200, 0.7155, 0.7100
Resistance levels: 0.7320, 0.7350, 0.7370, 0.7500, 0.7570

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7290. Stop-Loss 0.7330. Take-Profit 0.7235, 0.7200, 0.7155, 0.7100
Buy Stop 0.7330. Stop-Loss 0.7290. Take-Profit 0.7350, 0.7370, 0.7500, 0.7570


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

DJIA: stock markets are growing
21/08/2018
Current situation
US and world stock indexes continue to grow. Investors were encouraged by reports of the resumption of negotiations between the US and China with a view to resolving the trade conflict between the countries. Market participants also expect that strong US economic data and financial results of companies will continue to support the indices.
DJIA rose on Monday by 0.3%, to 25758.69 points, the highest level of closure since February 1. S&P500 added 0.2%, reaching 2857.05 points, which is 0.6% lower than the January record. Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.1%, to 7821.01 points. All three major US indices are growing on Tuesday for 4 consecutive days.
The main risk for the economy and the stock market at the moment are trade conflicts. As they weaken, the growth of US stock indices is likely to accelerate.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
DJIA retains positive dynamics, trading in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts. Above the short-term support level of 25260.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart), only long positions should be considered.
The breakdown of the support level of 25260.0 may provoke a deeper correction decrease to the key support levels 24775.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 24450.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart). Near these levels also passes the bottom line of the rising channel on the weekly chart.
In general, the positive dynamics remains. Only the breakdown of the support level of 24050.0 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% of the correction to the growth from the level of 15650.0 in the wave that began in January 2016. The maximum of this wave and the 0% Fibonacci level are near the 26620.0 mark) may call into question the DJIA's bullish trend.
DJIA is growing, heading toward resistance level 26620.0 (absolute and annual highs).
Support levels: 25670.0, 25260.0, 25000.0, 24775.0, 24450.0, 24050.0
Resistance levels: 26000.0, 26200.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 25650.0. Take-Profit 26200.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 25650.0. Stop-Loss 25800.0. Take-Profit 25260.0, 25000.0, 24775.0, 24450.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

NZD/USD: Support and resistance levels
24/08/2018
Since mid-April, the NZD / USD has been trading in a downward channel, falling from the level of 0.7380. In August, NZD / USD reached multi-month lows near the 0.6548 mark. The negative trend persists, and NZD / USD is traded in the descending channel on the daily chart.
In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.6548, NZD / USD will target at lows 2015 near the 0.6260 mark.
The objective of the upward correction after the breakdown of the resistance level 0.6715 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) may be the resistance level of 0.6865 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, level of 0.6260 and the upper limit of the range formed in July).
The prevailing negative dynamics. Short positions are preferred. The global downtrend, which began in July 2014, resumed.
Investors are preparing for the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at a symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday (14:00 GMT). Investors are interested in Powell's opinion about the growing US-China trade confrontation and the prospects for the monetary policy of the Fed.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6548, 0.6500, 0.6410
Resistance levels: 0.6650, 0.6715, 0.6750, 0.6865, 0.6900, 0.6965

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6620. Stop-Loss 0.6665. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6548, 0.6500, 0.6410
Buy Stop 0.6665. Stop-Loss 0.6620. Take-Profit 0.6715, 0.6750, 0.6865, 0.6900, 0.6965



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com