Tifia Daily Market Analytics

AUD/USD: low interest rates are desirable
07/05/2018

Current dynamics
Last week, the central bank of Australia, as expected, left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. According to the RBA Governor Philip Lowey, at present there are no arguments in favor of changing the RBA monetary policy.
On Tuesday, Philip Lowy said that "the low level of interest rates continues to support the Australian economy".
At the level of 1.5%, the RBA rate is already since the middle of 2016, and economists believe that the first increase will take place only in 2019. However, interest rates may remain unchanged for an even longer time, given the weak wage growth and the slowdown in the Australian economy.
The RBA raised the forecast for core inflation by mid-2018 from 1.75% to 2.0%, to the lower limit of the RBA's target range of 2% -3%. At the same time, the RBA does not expect further growth in core inflation until June 2020.
On Friday, in the quarterly Monetary Policy Statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia revised upward its forecast for the unemployment rate. Now, given the negative dynamics of the Australian labor market from the beginning of 2018, the long-awaited increase in the RBA rate in the first half of 2019 may be in jeopardy.
Nevertheless, the situation in the Australian labor market remains a key factor in the prospects for raising the key interest rate of the country's central bank.
"The board does not see any weighty arguments in favor of adjusting the key interest rate in the short term", the statement adds.
Economists also warn that due to the weakness of the housing market and the continuing weakening of housing prices in major cities, the RBA will not change rates until 2020.
If pressure on housing prices increases, it will undermine consumer confidence and lead to a slowdown in economic growth. And this, in turn, suggests a possibility of a decrease, rather than an increase in interest rates.
On Tuesday, investors will be attracted by the publication (09:30 GMT) of the Australian government's annual budget plan. The impact of this document on the market and on the quotations of the Australian dollar is high, because it can have a significant impact on the economy.
At the same time, the tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed in combination with strong economic data of the US supports the US dollar. Its growth, most likely, will continue in the short term.
The different focus of monetary policy of central banks in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD/USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7500, 0.7430, 0.7330, 0.7155
Resistance levels: 0.7550, 0.7655, 0.7690, 0.7730, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

Trading Scenarios
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 0.7565. Take-Profit 0.7430, 0.7330, 0.7155
Buy Stop 0.7565. Stop-Loss 0.7490. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7655, 0.7690, 0.7730, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

S&P500: US stock indexes are falling before the speech of Donald Trump
08/05/2018

Current dynamics
Major US stock indexes are down on the eve of the speech of US President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump wrote on Twitter that he would announce a decision on the Iranian nuclear agreement on Tuesday. The deadline for the adoption of this decision by the US expires on May 12.
Traders took a wait-and-see position before the decision of US President Donald Trump on the Iranian nuclear deal. If Trump still decides to withdraw from the agreement and the US restores economic sanctions against Iran, it will lead to a reduction in the supply of oil from Iran, reduce the world supply of oil and cause an increase in oil prices.
In this case, the Fed may begin to respond more acutely to consumer price growth, which is partly related to the expected increase in oil prices, and to raise interest rates faster than previously expected. This is a negative factor for stock indices, although the dollar will benefit from this.
The strengthening of inflationary pressures in the US can stimulate the Fed to further raise interest rates this year. According to the futures quotations for interest rates of the Fed, investors estimate the probability of four rate increases of 50% (against 32% a month earlier). In this case, the probability of an increase in the rate in June is estimated at 100%. Strong recent economic data from the US has strengthened investors' expectations about 4 Fed interest rate rises in 2018, despite the fact that the Fed is still signaling about 2 more rate hikes. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds is 2.954%, which indicates the expected increase in inflation, and therefore, at a higher rate of tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed.
It is also necessary to take into account the impressive deficit of the US foreign trade balance and the federal budget deficit, which can be further aggravated against the backdrop of the new tax and economic policy of the White House and expectations of a significant increase in budget expenditures.
In recent weeks, the main US stock indices are hesitating in anticipation of the Fed's actions and trade negotiations between the US and China, which ended on Friday with nothing.
Negative dynamics of US stock indexes persists in the medium term, although in the long run, indices are still in a long-term bull trend.
Recall that the beginning of the performance of Donald Trump is scheduled for 18:00 (GMT).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2650.0, 2630.0, 2615.0, 2590.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Resistance levels: 2672.0, 2712.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2640.0. Stop-Loss 2685.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2615.0, 2590.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Buy Stop 2685.0. Stop-Loss 2640.0. Objectives 2712.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Brent: the price tends to the marks around 80.00
10/05/2018
Current dynamics
According to official data released by the US Department of Energy on Wednesday, commercial oil reserves in this country fell by 2.197 million barrels last week (the forecast assumed a drop in stocks of only 0.719 million barrels). Gasoline inventories declined by 2.2 million barrels (forecasted decline is of only 0.4 million barrels), diesel fuel inventories decreased by 3.8 million barrels against the expected drop of 1.4 million barrels.
This is a positive factor for oil prices. However, prices continue to grow, playing out the recent US decision to withdraw from the "nuclear deal" with Iran, as well as the escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced the renunciation of the agreement on Iran's nuclear program, which means the resumption of sanctions against this country.
It is expected that the resumption of sanctions will lead to a reduction in Iran's oil production, a key member of OPEC, and a reduction in the world supply of oil.
Analysts of the oil market believe that the resumption of sanctions could lead to the withdrawal of Iranian oil from the world market and to a reduction in the world supply of oil by 700,000 barrels a day. Previously, the sanctions imposed on Iran in 2012 led to the withdrawal of about 1 million barrels of Iranian oil from the market.
At the moment, pressure on oil quotations towards further price increases is also exacerbated by the situation in the Middle East, which can lead to interruptions in the supply of oil from Asia.
Israeli forces struck at Iranian facilities in Syria after rockets were fired from Iranian military bases to the positions of the Israeli army in the Golan Heights. In addition, Iranian-backed Yemeni rebels on Wednesday launched rockets for Saudi Arabia.
On Thursday, July futures for Brent crude went up by 0.75% to 77.79 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude rose during the Asian session to 77.80, a new high since November 2014.
It is likely that oil prices will continue to rise, given geopolitical risks and possible interruptions in supplies from Iraq and Venezuela, as well as OPEC's intent to adhere to a plan to further limit oil production.
According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States increased oil production by 1.34 million barrels per day in comparison with last March, ranking second in the world for oil production after Russia, outstripping Saudi Arabia.
But even despite the growth in oil production in the US, the world oil supply will not be able to cover the demand in the current situation.
On Friday (at 17:00 GMT) a weekly report will be published from the American oil service company Baker Hughes on the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US. Their number almost weekly grows and at the moment is 834 units. The next growth of this indicator will be another negative factor for the oil market and positive - for oil prices. Probably, the price for Brent crude oil will try to break into the zone around $ 80 per barrel.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 77.00, 76.60, 76.00, 74.90, 72.25, 70.40, 70.00, 69.80, 68.50, 66.70, 64.30, 63.20
Resistance levels: 78.00, 78.50, 79.00, 80.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 75.80. Stop-Loss 77.20. Take-Profit 75.00, 74.00, 72.25, 70.40, 70.00, 69.80, 68.50, 66.70
Buy Stop 77.80. Stop-Loss 75.80. Take-Profit 78.00, 78.50, 79.00, 80.00
Buy Limit 72.25. Stop Loss 70.00. Take-Profit 73.00, 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00, 78.00, 78.50, 79.00, 80.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CAD: investors fix profit after growth of US dollar
11/05/2018

Current dynamics
After the Bank of Canada left the rate at the previous level of 1.25% in April, the Canadian dollar declined. The central bank is concerned about international trade conflicts and weaker economic expectations than expected.
"Despite the higher demand in the world economy, the growth of investment (Canadian) companies focused on exports will be limited by the increased uncertainty surrounding foreign trade and concerns about regulatory rules. In addition, after the tax reform in the United States, there is the question of likely investors switching to US assets", the central bank said.
Nevertheless, in recent days, the Canadian dollar has been receiving support from rising oil prices. Strengthening of the Canadian dollar and the decline in the USD / CAD will continue if the bull market continues to be present in the oil market.
So far, everything is in favor of further price increases after Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced the US withdrawal from the agreement on Iran's nuclear program. The unilateral exit of the US from the deal implies the resumption of sanctions against Iran and limiting of the Iranian oil on the world market, which is approximately 1 million barrels a day.
At 12:30 (GMT), the publication of data from the Canadian labor market is planned. It is expected that unemployment in Canada in April remained at 5.8%, and the number of employed increased by 17,400 people. If the data prove to be better than the forecast, the Canadian dollar will strengthen, and the USD / CAD will decrease.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is declining from the opening of today's trading day. Investors continued to analyze yesterday's weak data on consumer inflation in the US. The growth in consumer price indices was less significant than economists had expected.
Data pointed to a possible slowdown in inflation, and this is a negative sign for the Fed in the matter of tightening monetary policy and the prospects for strengthening the US dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2765, 1.2805, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.2780. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170
Buy Stop 1.2780. Stop-Loss 1.2720. Take-Profit 1.2805, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: investors are expecting for data from the UK labor market
14/05/2018

Current dynamics
As you know, last week the Bank of England retained the key interest rate at 0.50% without risking the weak recovery of the British economy, and also with the continuing of uncertainties regarding Brexit. The program for the purchase of stock assets by the Bank of England also remained unchanged at the level of 435 billion pounds sterling a year.
The Bank of England also lowered its forecast for GDP for 2018 from 1.75% to 1.40%.
In early May, disappointing macro data were published, indicating a weak growth in the UK economy in April. The PMI index for the manufacturing sector turned out to be the lowest for 17 months (53.9 against 54.8 under forecasts and 54.9 in March). Gross domestic product in the 1st quarter increased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, or by 1.2% year-on-year (the forecast was + 0.3% and + 1.4%, respectively). Thus, GDP growth has slowed significantly; The UK economy in the first quarter of 2018 grew at a slower pace in more than five years.
Slowing down the rate of inflation also caused the Bank of England leaders to refrain from raising the interest rate. So, the consumer price index pointed out that the annual inflation in the UK in March slowed from 2.7% to 2.5%.
On Tuesday, the focus of traders will be data from the British labor market, including data on employment and wages, which will be published at 08:30 (GMT). If the data here also prove to be weak, then the prospect of an increase in the rate in August will be postponed for an even later period. Although, some economists expect that the Bank of England can still go on raising rates in August or November.
The Bank of England's propensity for a softer monetary policy amid the Federal Reserve's intention to gradually raise the interest rate makes the pound vulnerable to the dollar and leads to a further decline in the GBP / USD.
As stated on Monday by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and FOMC member Loretta Mester, "it is advisable to continue tightening monetary policy in order to avoid increasing risks for macroeconomic stability". In her opinion, "fiscal policy turns from limiting to stimulating, the growth rate of the economy exceeds trend, and investments are increasing, so the neutral interest rate is also likely to grow".
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3535, 1.3465, 1.3400, 1.3300, 1.3210
Resistance levels: 1.3595, 1.3610, 1.3710, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 1.3625. Stop-Loss 1.3530. Take-Profit 1.3710, 1.3740, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400
Sell Stop 1.3530. Stop-Loss 1.3625. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3465, 1.3400, 1.3300, 1.3210



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CHF: the dynamics of the pair is determined, basically, by the strengthening of the dollar
15/05/2018
Current dynamics
As reported by the Swiss Federal Bureau of Statistics this morning, the import price and producer prices index rose by 0.4% in April (+ 2.7% in annual terms), mainly due to higher oil and equipment prices. The forecast was +0.3% and + 3.0%, respectively.
This has not yet led to an increase in consumer prices; annual consumer inflation in Switzerland is 0.8%. Nevertheless, the current weakening of the Swiss franc and the increase in producer prices can increase inflationary pressures and provoke the acceleration of consumer inflation in the coming months.
This, on the one hand, can contribute to changing the NBS rhetoric about the current monetary policy. On the other hand, the NBS already almost traditionally considers the franc overbought and conducts an extra-soft monetary policy aimed at reducing the relative value of the franc.
As you know, in mid-March, the Swiss National Bank left its negative interest rates unchanged. The deposit rate remained at the level of -0.75%, the range for the 3-month LIBOR rate also remained unchanged, between -1.25% and -0.25%. The NBS traditionally stated that the franc rate is still too high, which indicates that the NBS still intends to keep rates in the negative territory.
"The bank still considers it necessary to have a negative interest rate and is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market, if the situation requires it", the NBS said.
At the moment, the USD / CHF reached the levels of October-November last year, near the mark 1.0030, from which the weakening of the pair began. Beginning in February, when the USD / CHF reached its 3-year lows near the 0.9200 mark, then the pair almost weekly grew.
During this period, the dynamics of the USD / CHF was determined, basically, by a large-scale strengthening of the dollar.
A cheap franc is beneficial to Swiss exporters. It will be interesting now to listen to the opinion of the head of the NBS, Thomas Jordan, about the current weakening of the franc. Will his performance strengthen the franc and reduce the USD / CHF from current levels, or the NBS will be tolerant of further weakening of the franc and the growth of the pair USD / CHF to the resistance level of 1.0300. From this level twice in the last 3 years (in November 2015 and December 2016) another wave of USD / CHF decline began.
Speech by Thomas Jordan is scheduled for Wednesday (16:00 GMT).
So far, the difference in the direction of monetary policy in the US and Switzerland is the most important argument in favor of the growth of the pair USD / CHF.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.9965, 0.9900, 0.9875, 0.9815, 0.9745, 0.9690, 0.9640, 0.9610
Resistance levels: 1.0030, 1.0060, 1.0100, 1.0300

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 1.0040. Stop-Loss 0.9960. Take-Profit 1.0060, 1.0100, 1.0300
Sell Stop 0.9960. Stop-Loss 1.0040. Take-Profit 0.9900, 0.9875, 0.9815, 0.9745, 0.9690, 0.9640, 0.9610



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Brent: the positive dynamics will be preserved, despite the current correction
16/05/2018
Current dynamics
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase in crude oil inventories in the US for the week of +4.854 million barrels. Nevertheless, this information almost did not affect the quotations of oil, futures for which increased by 35 cents, to 71.31 dollars per barrel following the results of trades on Nymex.
The spot price for Brent crude at the end of the trading day on Tuesday was near the mark of 77.90, after rising to new annual highs near the 79.25 dollars per barrel in the middle of the trading day.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday, oil reserves in advanced economies fell to a three-year low.
In its monthly report, which closely follows the markets, the IEA reported a reduction in oil reserves in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in March compared to the previous month by 26.8 million barrels, to 62.819 billion barrels. This level is 1 million barrels below the 5-year average, which is used by participants to assess the process of market rebalancing. The efforts of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to level the world's excess supply, which has put pressure on the oil market since the end of 2014, is bearing fruit.
Since the entry into force of the OPEC agreement, oil reserves in the OECD countries have fallen by 233 million barrels. As you know, OPEC and 10 oil-producing countries outside the cartel, including Russia, from the beginning of last year reduce the total oil production by about 1.8 million barrels a day.
The market is also supported by geopolitical risks. Iran is the third largest OPEC oil producer, and in the past sanctions limited Iranian oil exports by about 1 million barrels a day. If the US now restores sanctions against the Islamic Republic (currently Iran exports about 2.4 million barrels a day), it will reduce OPEC's total production and further reduce the global supply.
At the moment, pressure on oil quotations towards further price increases is also exacerbated by the situation in the Middle East, which can lead to interruptions in the supply of oil from Asia.
Nevertheless, oil prices have so far suspended growth and declined from the highs for three and a half years on signs that the oil rally is beginning to weaken the growth in demand.
In the monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the forecast for growth in oil demand in 2018 was reduced to 1.4 million barrels per day against the previous estimate of 1.5 million barrels per day, including because of a significant price increase.
In the current year, Brent oil prices have increased by about 17%, and since 2016 prices have increased by approximately 2.6 times.
On Wednesday (at 14:30 GMT), the Ministry of Energy will provide official data on oil and petroleum products in the US. The stock is expected to decline by -0.763 million barrels, which will positively affect oil prices while confirming the forecast.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 77.00, 75.60, 74.40, 73.40, 72.00, 70.40, 70.00, 66.90, 64.80, 63.30, 58.00
Resistance levels: 78.50, 79.30, 80.00, 90.00, 100.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 76.80. Stop-Loss 78.60. Take-Profit 76.00, 75.60, 75.00, 74.40, 73.40
Or Buy Limit 77.00, 75.60, 74.40, 73.40. Stop-Loss 72.80. Take-Profit 78.00, 79.00, 80.00, 90.00, 100.00
Buy Stop 78.60. Stop-Loss 76.80. Take-Profit 79.00, 80.00, 90.00, 100.00




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

AUD/USD: downward dynamics prevails
17/05/2018

Current dynamics
As reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday, the unemployment rate in April was 5.6% after 5.5% in March (the forecast was 5.5%). Nevertheless, other articles of the report were more positive, and the Australian currency strengthened. Thus, the number of jobs increased by 22,600 against the expected 20,000, the number of full-time jobs increased in April by 32,700, and the number of part-time jobs dropped by 10,000. Meanwhile, the proportion of economically active population in Australia in April was 65.6% after 65.5% in March and compared with the forecast of 65.5%.
Published on Wednesday, data showed that the growth rate of wages in Australia remained near the record low in the first three months of this year. Wage growth in Australia in the first quarter of 2018 was + 2.1% (in annual terms). The Reserve Bank of Australia pays much attention to this indicator when deciding on the interest rate. Low wage growth rates may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to not change interest rates for a longer period of time.
Since mid-2016, the RBA's key rate is at a record low of 1.5%.
Deputy Governor of the RBA Debell said that interest rates will not be raised until consumers' incomes rise. Economists believe that the first increase will take place only in 2019. However, interest rates may remain unchanged for an even longer time, given the weak wage growth and the slowdown in the Australian economy.
"The Board does not see any weighty arguments in favor of adjusting the key interest rate in the short term", - said in one of the latest statements of the RBA.
Economists also warn that due to the weakness of the housing market and the continuing weakening of housing prices in major cities, the RBA will not change rates until 2020.
If pressure on housing prices increases, it will undermine consumer confidence and lead to a slowdown in economic growth. And this, in turn, suggests a possibility of a decrease, rather than an increase in interest rates.
In general, the negative dynamics of the AUD / USD pair remains. The US dollar receives support from the growing yield of 10-year US government bonds, which reached a new high of 3.122% on Thursday.
The different focus of monetary policy of central banks in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD / USD pair.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7500, 0.7410, 0.7330, 0.7155
Resistance levels: 0.7565, 0.7595, 0.7655, 0.7715, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

Trading Scenarios
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 0.7570. Take-Profit 0.7500, 0.7410, 0.7330, 0.7155
Buy Stop 0.7570. Stop-Loss 0.7490. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7655, 0.7690, 0.7715, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CAD: oil price growth supports CAD
18/05/2018

Current dynamics
Uncertainty over the NAFTA negotiations puts pressure on Canada's investments and exports, said earlier in the week, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Lawrence Schembri.
"Economic capacities are almost fully loaded, inflation is close to the target level of 2%, and yet rates remain below the neutral level, in part because we have to hedge ourselves because of the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations", added Lawrence Shembry.
As you know, in April the Bank of Canada left the rate at the same level of 1.25%. The central bank is concerned about international trade conflicts and weaker economic expectations than expected.
"Despite the higher demand in the world economy, the growth of investment (Canadian) companies focused on exports will be limited by the increased uncertainty surrounding foreign trade and concerns about regulatory rules", said in the central bank.
Nevertheless, in recent days, the Canadian dollar has been receiving support from rising oil prices.
So, Brent oil prices exceeded the $ 80 mark per barrel on Thursday, although they fell to 79.30 by the end of the trading day. The US decision to resume economic sanctions against Iran continued to support the rally in oil prices, which reached new highs since November 2014.
If the bull market continues to be in the oil market, then the probability of strengthening the Canadian dollar will increase.
At 12:30 (GMT), publication of data on retail sales and consumer inflation in Canada is planned. Retail sales are expected to grow by 0.3% in March, after rising by 0.4% in February. The level of retail sales is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence, which reflects the state of the retail sector in the short term. The growth of this indicator is a bullish factor for CAD.
The consumer price index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of prices relative to the retail prices of the corresponding basket of goods and services. The target inflation rate for the Bank of Canada is in the range of 1% -3%. The growth of CPI is a positive factor for CAD. Forecast: consumer prices rose in Canada by 0.4% in April (against +0.3% in March). The base CPI rose in April, expected to be +1.4% (in annual terms). Thus, the CPI indicators are still weak, so that the Bank of Canada could return to the issue of raising the interest rate.
If the data are better than forecasts, then against the backdrop of rising oil prices, as well as against the fixation of profit in long positions on the US dollar at the end of the trading week, CAD can significantly strengthen against the USD.
In any case, a surge in volatility in the USD / CAD is expected during the publication of this macro statistics.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2805, 1.2765, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2790. Stop-Loss 1.2855. Take-Profit 1.2765, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260
Buy Stop 1.2855. Stop-Loss 1.2790. Take-Profit 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

S&P500: US and China agree on trade armistice
21/05/2018

Current dynamics
Markets positively perceived the information that the US and China agreed on a trade truce. At last weekend's talks, Beijing agreed to increase purchases of goods manufactured in the US to reduce the US trade deficit with China, which is $ 375 billion now.
The Trump administration tried to force China to agree to reduce the trade imbalance by $ 200 billion.
Nevertheless, Beijing has refused to determine the exact amount of purchases in dollar terms, and now everything depends on the talks between the two presidents, Trump and Xi Jinping.
On Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said that the administration of US President Donald Trump intends to "put the trade war on a pause" and postpone the introduction of duties on the import of goods from China, until the two sides discuss the details of the agreement to reduce the trade deficit.
The successful season of reporting US companies for the first quarter also contributed to the growth of US stock indices in recent days.
At the same time, long-term estimates of inflation in the US are still restrained, despite improvements in indicators. In this regard, investors are interested in how actively the Fed will react to one-time price increases.
As you know, at the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018. In 2017, the rates were also raised 3 times. This temp of tightening of monetary policy is already taken into account in quotes.
According to the futures quotations for interest rates of the Fed, investors estimate the probability of four rate increases at 50% (against 32% a month earlier). In this case, the probability of an increase in the rate in June is estimated at 100%. Strong recent economic data from the US has strengthened investors' expectations about 4 Fed interest rate rises in 2018, despite the fact that the Fed is still signaling about 2 more rate hikes.
Now investors will carefully monitor the release of the minutes of the Fed's May meeting (on Wednesday 18:00 GMT), which may shed light on how quickly rates will be raised in response to increased inflation.
On Friday (13:20 GMT) the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will act. If he signals a high probability of 4 rate increases this year, then US stock indices may fall again. As a rule, raising rates leads to the strengthening of the national currency and to a decrease in the attractiveness of the assets of the stock market.
Meanwhile, the bullish trend of the US stock market remains.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2712.0, 2688.0, 2660.0, 2630.0, 2625.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2741.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2700.0. Stop-Loss 2742.0. Objectives 2688.0, 2660.0, 2630.0, 2625.0
Buy Stop 2742.0. Stop-Loss 2700.0. Objectives 2760.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com