Tifia Daily Market Analytics

DJIA: indexes updated recent absolute highs
29/11/2017
Current dynamics
After yesterday, the main US stock indexes updated the absolute highs, today the indices are traded in a narrow range, maintaining a positive momentum.
It is likely that the news that North Korea has launched another ballistic missile, which, according to the leadership of North Korea, can reach any point of the United States, kept the markets from continuing growth. Experts confirmed that the launched missile had a higher trajectory. This launch may once again intensify tensions in the region and worsen the country's relations with the United States.
So far, investors' reaction to this news has been rather low-key. It is likely that they are waiting for a reaction from the administration of the US President. If aggressive statements follow, investors can again begin to withdraw funds into safe assets and sell some of the high-risk assets of the stock market. The tougher the statements from the US president, the stronger the stock markets can "shake".
If the reaction from the administration of the US president does not follow, then the growth in US stock exchanges will continue.
Investors continue to analyze positive economic data from the US, as well as information that the US Senate Budget Committee voted on Tuesday to adopt a tax bill proposed by Republicans.
Now we can assume that the bill will be approved on Thursday, when it will be put to the vote in the Senate. Republican leaders are confident that they will be able to get 50 votes needed to approve the bill.
At the same time, investors drew attention to the positive macro data received from the US on Tuesday. The index of consumer confidence in the US (according to the Conference Board version) rose in November to a new high for 17 years and amounted to 129.5 against 126.2 in October. The national housing price index in the USA increased by 6.2% in September (against + 5.9% in August) compared to the same period of the previous year, showing the fastest annual growth since June 2014. The growth of the production index (according to the Fed-Richmond data) was 30 in November (against 12 in October), the highest level since 1993.
The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 2.338% from 1.328% on Monday.
As a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said yesterday during a hearing in the banking committee of the Senate, the Fed may move toward "normalizing interest rates". In his opinion, "if to wait too long for an increase in rates, the economy may overheat". Powell also suggested that US GDP growth in 2018 will be 2% -2.5%, and the unemployment rate will drop below 4%.
The data show that the growth of the US economy is accelerating towards the end of the year. Now investors are trying to understand how aggressively the Federal Reserve will be able to raise rates in the next year. The higher cost of borrowing makes the dollar and US assets more attractive for purchases.
Today, again, the rapid growth of volatility in the financial markets is expected during the American session, when important macro statistics from the United States begin to arrive, and Fed Chairman Janet Yellen (15:00 GMT) and FOMC member San Francisco FRB John Williams (at 17:45) start speeches.
If the data presented (GDP for the 3rd quarter (preliminary release), as well as the inflation index of spending on personal consumption of Americans) coincides with positive forecasts or will be stronger (3.2% GDP is expected to grow against 3.0% in the second quarter), then the dollar and US stock indices will react with growth.
At 19:00 (GMT) "Beige Book" with an economic review of the Fed the current situation in the US economy will be published.
The US stock market is expected to retain positive dynamics in the short term, if unexpected extraordinary events of a geopolitical scale do not follow.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 23560.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22900.0, 22720.0, 22400.0, 22000.0, 21930.0
Resistance levels: 23900.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 23780.0. Take-Profit 23900.0, 24000.0, 24100.0
Sell Stop 23780.0. Stop-Loss 23910.0. Take-Profit 23560.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22900.0, 22720.0, 22400.0, 22000.0, 21930.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

EUR/USD: amid positive US macro data
30/11/2017
Current dynamics
According to the US Department of Commerce, the gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of the production of goods and services in the economy, increased by 3.3% per annum in the third quarter (the forecast was + 3.0% and + 3.1% quarter).
This growth was the strongest in three years.
Federal Reserve manager Jerome Powell, who was nominated by US President Donald Trump as chairman to replace Janet Yellen, said on Tuesday at a Senate hearing that he expects GDP growth in 2017 to be 2.5%.
The yield of 10-year US government bonds, according to Tradeweb, after the release of data on US GDP on Wednesday rose to 2.385% from the level of 2.338% recorded on Tuesday.
"I believe that there are conditions for raising interest rates at the next meeting", Powell told lawmakers. The next meeting of the Fed is scheduled for December 12-13. Almost with 100% certainty, investors expect an increase in the key rate in December by 0.25%, which is currently in the range of 1% -1.25%.
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, FOMC member John Williams on Wednesday also called for higher rates.
"As long as the data continues to indicate stable growth, and we see such an increase in inflation as we expect, we, in my personal view, should continue to slowly increase interest rates next year. If we do not return interest rates to more normal levels, we risk undermining steady growth and create conditions that could lead to a recession in the future", he said.
In a report published on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve System, known as the "Beige Book", it is said that economic activity in the country has increased "from modest to moderate" in recent weeks amid signs of rising prices and the continued strengthening of the labor market.
And yet, the dollar's growth on Wednesday turned out to be restrained, and on Thursday the dollar traded in different directions from the opening of the trading day and during the Asian session, declining against the euro and the pound. Apparently, several important factors do not allow the dollar to move into a more aggressive offensive.
Earlier in the week, the Budget Committee of the US Senate approved the republican bill of tax reform. On Thursday, a vote on this bill in the Senate should take place. Republican leaders are confident that they will be able to get 50 votes needed to approve the bill. And yet, there is a certain share of the risk for investors who are betting on the further growth of the dollar, if the bill is not adopted today in the Senate.
Disagreements among the leaders of the Fed on the pace and need to raise rates in 2018, which became clear from the previously published protocols from the November meeting of the Fed, also impose a negative imprint on the dynamics of the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
At the beginning of the European session EUR / USD resumed its decline. This was facilitated by statistical data, published at 10:00 (GMT) and indicated that the rate of inflation in the Eurozone in November remained low.
The annual preliminary consumer price index (CPI) of the Eurozone in November is + 1.5% (against + 1.4% in October and + 1.6% according to the forecast). The unemployment data in the Eurozone, which declined to 8.8% in November (against 8.9% in the forecast and last month), slightly brighten the negative picture.
The EUR / USD could not develop the upward momentum and gain a foothold above the resistance level at 1.1875 (last month's highs). Breakdown of resistance level 1.1900 would determine its further growth.
EUR / USD broke the short-term support level 1.1837 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the 4-hour chart) and is down to support level 1.1780 (Fibonacci level 38.2% corrective growth from the lows reached in March 2015 year in the last wave of global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900, as well as EMA144, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
The break of this level will call into question the further growth of EUR / USD, and the medium-term reduction targets will be the support levels 1.1640 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart), 1.1585 (EMA144), 1.1490 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Support levels: 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1765, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1585, 1.1490, 1.1285
Resistance levels: 1.1837, 1.1875, 1.1900, 1.1930, 1.1960, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1810. Stop-Loss 1.1880. Take-Profit 1.1780, 1.1765, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1585, 1.1490
Buy Stop 1.1880. Stop-Loss 1.1810. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1960, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: pound declines despite strong macro data
01/12/2017
Current dynamics

According to data provided today by IHS Markit Ltd., the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the UK manufacturing sector rose to 58.2 in November (the previous estimate was 56.6, the forecast was 56.5). Thus, the November figure was the highest in 51 months.
This indicator assesses the business climate and conditions in the manufacturing sector in the UK and is an important indicator of the business environment and the overall state of the country's economy. The manufacturing sector, the second most important in the UK after the services sector, forms a significant part of the final UK GDP. The value above 50 indicates an increase in activity, and below - to reduce it. Steady growth in activity in the UK manufacturing sector contributes to the recovery of the British economy as a whole.
This is a good sign for investors who put on the rise of pound and restoring of the British economy after the collapse of the pound after Brexit. And, nevertheless, the pound ignored the strong PMI for the manufacturing sector and continued the decline that began during the Asian session.
This week, the pound was supported by the news of progress in the negotiations on Brexit, although negotiations are still going on. Great Britain has increased the amount it is willing to pay for withdrawing from the European Union. The parties came to a preliminary agreement on the payment by the UK for the exit from the EU from 40 to 55 billion euros.
However, the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland threatens to give up support for the UK-based coalition if conditions for Northern Ireland differ from those for the rest of the country. The reminiscing about itself and the once again manifested uncertainty around Brexit halted the almost non-stop 4-week growth of the pound and the GBP / USD pair.
At the same time, the dollar also suspended its ascent after yesterday's vote in the Senate on the tax bill of the Republicans was postponed.
It turned out that the US budget deficit will increase by 1 trillion dollars within 10 years, if the proposed plan is adopted. Reducing the tax from US companies to 20% from the current 35% was the main point of the new economic policy of President Donald Trump. This promised to accelerate economic growth and inflation.
Thus, today in the foreign exchange market there is a multidirectional dynamics of the dollar.
At 15:00 (GMT) will be published important macro indicators for the United States. Among them - the index of business activity ISM (for November) in the manufacturing sector, which is an important indicator of the state of the US economy as a whole, the index of gradual acceleration of inflation from ISM for November, which assesses the state of the US industrial sector and the mood of business representatives regarding inflation. A relative decrease in indicators is expected, although, in general, indicators will remain well above the value of 50, which indicates the growth of this sector of the US economy.
Also during the American trading session (at 14:05, 14:30, 15:15 GMT) a number of representatives of the Federal Reserve, including the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis James Bullard, the executive director of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank Robert Stephen Kaplan, the head of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Patrick Harker, will speak. At this time (from 14:05 to 15:15) the volatility of trades will grow not only in terms of the dollar, but also in the American stock market.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3500, 1.3400, 1.3365, 1.3265, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3055
Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3460. Stop-Loss 1.3520. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3365, 1.3265, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3055
Buy Stop 1.3520. Stop-Loss 1.3460. Take-Profit 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Brent: despite the decline, the upward trend is prevailing
04/12/2017
Current dynamics
Last week in Vienna, OPEC, Russia and a number of other major oil-producing countries agreed to further reduce oil production by about 1.8 million barrels a day, or about 2% of global oil production.
The deal was extended until the end of 2018. The task of rebalancing the market has not yet been fulfilled, according to representatives of the countries participating in the meeting, which together control about 60% of world oil production.
"We need to wait for the exact rate of reduction (stocks) in the second quarter, and we will consider them at the June meeting. We expect that unless something unexpected happens, we will not change our course in the second half of the year", Saudi Energy Minister Khaled Al-Falih said in Riyadh today.
At the same time, American oil companies will make their own decisions, Al-Falih said. The US can work in the existing parameters, according to Al-Falih.
Nevertheless, the proposal from the United States and other countries not participating in the deal will continue to grow. Now that the OPEC agreement on production cuts has been extended, the market will become dependent on oil production data, as well as sensitive to the dynamics of the dollar.
So, today in Asia quotations of oil futures fell against the background of the strengthening of the dollar. Prices lost some of the positions won at the end of last week.
February futures for Brent crude oil fell 0.47%, to 63.43 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of the European session is close to the level of 63.20, which is $ 0.3 per barrel less than the opening price of today's trading day.
The dollar received good support today after it became known on Saturday about the adoption of the US Senate tax bill. It provides for a reduction of the tax from companies to 20% from 35%, which should stimulate the growth of the US economy and the dollar in the long term.
Some pressure on oil prices was also provided by a report on Friday from the American oil service company Baker Hughes that the number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased by 2 units last week to 749 units after growing 9 units earlier two weeks ago. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units). US oil producers still have a significant prospect for the production growth. Especially, the growth of oil production in the US will be stimulated by the extended OPEC deal and high oil prices. This, along with the growth of the dollar, will become one of the main constraints to the growth of oil prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance levels
From the end of June, Brent crude oil is traded in the upward channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of which runs near the 67.00 dollars per barrel mark.
The price remains above the key support level of 62.90 (EMA200 on the monthly chart), and in case of resumption of growth the nearest target will be a local resistance level of 64.50 (November highs). Growth above the level of 65.00 will indicate a full recovery in prices after falling from the level of 65.00 in June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00. According to optimistic forecasts, the price may soon overcome the $ 65.00 mark and rise to the area of $ 70.00.
Support levels: 62.90, 62.00, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.00, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.50, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 63.50, 64.00, 64.50, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 62.80. Stop-Loss 63.60. Take-Profit 62.60, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.50
Buy Stop 63.60. Stop-Loss 62.80. Take-Profit 64.00, 64.50, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

AUD/USD: The RBA kept its benchmark interest rate at 1.5%
05/12/2017
Current dynamics
During today's Asian trading session, the Australian dollar was growing.
First, it rose against the background of more positive than expected retail sales figures for October. According to the data, retail sales in October in Australia increased by 0.5%, exceeding expectations. In September, the indicator grew only by 0.1%, and in August and July, retail sales in Australia decreased by 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively.
Then, the Australian dollar received support from positive data from China, according to which activity in the services sector of China in November grew at a faster pace. The index of supply managers (PMI) for the service sector of China, calculated by Caixin Media Co. and research company Markit, in November it increased to 51.9 against 51.2 in October.
Later (at 03:30 GMT), the RBA decision was published, according to which the interest rate was saved at the current level of 1.5%. This RBA decision was expected, and it did not make a strong impression on market participants. The Australian dollar reacted rather weakly to the decision of the RBA.
In the accompanying statement of the RBA it was stated that "interest rates correspond to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation. Low rates support the Australian economy, and a higher rate of the Australian dollar will slow the economic recovery".
RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated that, in the opinion of the board, "it is advisable to leave monetary policy unchanged at this meeting in order to maintain a stable growth of the economy and achieve a target inflation rate over time".
Contradictory economic indicators (record low wage growth rate, surplus labor market resources and weak inflationary pressures) contribute to the cautious approach of RBA leaders towards monetary policy. Therefore, in the foreseeable future, interest rates are likely to remain unchanged.
At the same time, strong macro data and positive news on the success of the presidential administration in promoting tax reform continue to flow from the US. This will accelerate economic growth in the country and increase inflation. This, in turn, will allow the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy, which will increase the attractiveness of the dollar and the assets of the American stock market.
Thus, a different focus of monetary policy in Australia and the US will further reduce AUD / USD in the medium term.
From the news for today we are waiting for data from the USA. At 14:45 (GMT) will be published indexes of business activity in the service sector (PMI), which is an indicator of the state of the services sector in the US economy. According to the forecast, a slight decrease is expected after a strong growth in October (59.0 versus 60.1 in October). Nevertheless, the result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the US dollar. It is likely that the decline in the US dollar, if the data will be weaker than the forecast values, will be short-term in nature.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts are on the buyers side. Therefore, if the resistance level of 0.7655 breaks, the AUD / USD growth will continue to the resistance level of 0.7695 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, the downward dynamics prevails.
Support levels: 0.7625, 0.7600, 0.7520, 0.7500, 0.7460
Resistance levels: 0.7640, 0.7655, 0.7695, 0.7715, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7950

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7665. Take-Profit 0.7625, 0.7600, 0.7520, 0.7500, 0.7460
Buy Stop 0.7665. Stop-Loss 0.7620. Take-Profit 0.7695, 0.7715, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7950



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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USD/CAD: the meeting of the Bank of Canada
06/12/2017
Current dynamics
In the focus of attention of traders today will be the meeting of the Bank of Canada and publication of the decision on the interest rate. Bank of Canada twice this year raised rates - in July and September. Inflation remains below the target level of 2%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Poloz noted earlier that the target range for inflation is 1% -3%, and said that the decline in the Canadian dollar will support exports. The Central Bank does not promise that the next step will be in favor of a rate hike, but the statement of the Bank of Canada says that it will closely monitor the level of household debt, and will decide in which direction the next change in monetary policy will be.
The decision to raise the rate was motivated by the desire to somewhat stabilize the monetary policy in the country against the background of rising oil prices after a series of lowering rates after the crisis in 2008.
It is widely expected that the rate will remain at the current level of 1.0%. The growth of the Canadian economy slowed in the second half of the year. In the third quarter, GDP grew only by 1.7% (after growth of 4.2% in 2Q). According to economists, the Bank of Canada will not change the interest rate until the second half of 2018 to wait for clearer signals about the economic recovery, despite the strong labor market in the country.
At the same time, the Fed intends to continue tightening monetary policy. The different focus of monetary policy in the US and Canada will be the most important factor in favor of the growth of the pair USD / CAD.
On the other hand, unexpected solutions are not excluded. As the recent events have shown, the Bank of Canada is able to surprise the markets. This applies, in particular, to unexpected increases in rates in July and September, despite the low inflation in Canada.
If today the rate is also raised, then the Canadian dollar will be sharply strengthened.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
On strong data from the Canadian labor market published on Friday, the pair USD / CAD broke through the important support levels 1.2835 (EMA200), 1.2770 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.2740 (Fibonacci level 38.2% downward correction to the pair's growth in the global ascendant trend from September 2012 and 0.9700 mark), 1.2715 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and again tries to return in to the descending channel on the weekly chart, trading just below its upper limit at the beginning of today's European session.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts have deployed to short positions, signaling a possible resumption of the downtrend.
So far, the downward trend is prevailing.
In case of breakdown of the local support level 1.2620, the target for further reduction will be the support level 1.2500 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
The breakdown of the support level at 1.2430 will completely return the USD / CAD pair to the downtrend and send it (within the downward channel on the weekly chart) to support levels 1.2170 (50% Fibonacci level), 1.2050 (2017 low).
The long-term goal of the decline is support level 1.1590 (Fibonacci level 61.8% and the bottom line of the descending channel on the weekly chart).
The signal for the resumption of growth will be the return of USD / CAD to the zone above the resistance level of 1.2740. A break of resistance level 1.2900 will return the pair USD / CAD to the upward global trend, which began in September 2012.
Support levels: 1.2620, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2715, 1.2740, 1.2770, 1.2835, 1.2900

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2650. Stop-Loss 1.2690. Take-Profit 1.2620, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Buy Stop 1.2690. Stop-Loss 1.2650. Take-Profit 1.2715, 1.2740, 1.2770, 1.2835, 1.2900



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

XAU/USD: The dollar is stable against the backdrop of new signs of strengthening the labor market
07/12/2017
Current dynamics
The dollar continues to bargain with the rise after it rose on Wednesday amid new signs of strengthening the labor market in the US. The ADP report, based on data from private companies, as well as on government data, pointed to a 190,000 increase in jobs in the private sector in the United States (the forecast was +175,000).
Hopes for signing the law on tax reform also support the US dollar. Earlier it became known that on Saturday the Senate passed a bill providing for lowering the tax from companies to 20% from 35%. This victory of Republicans and the administration of Donald Trump promises to give a new impetus to the US economy and accelerate the growth of inflation, which will allow the Fed to tighten its monetary policy more confidently.
Despite disagreements between legislators, it is very likely that the final bill on tax reform will appear before the end of this year. And this, of course, is a strong fundamental factor for the growth of the dollar and the assets of the American stock market.
This, in turn, encourages investors to withdraw funds from safe assets, directing them to purchase higher-yield assets.
Today we are waiting for the publication at 13:30 (GMT) macro data from the United States. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits last week increased by 2,000 and amounted to 240,000. Despite the small increase, the number of unemployed has remained at the lowest level since 1973, and initial claims for benefits are kept below the mark in 300 000 for more than 2.5 years. This is the longest series since 1970. Employers will have to raise salaries to retain or attract employees, which will lead to an increase in personal incomes, correspondingly, expenditures and a gradual acceleration of inflation.
And this is a downgrade factor for gold prices, as in the case of rising inflation rates increase becomes more real event. The cost of acquiring and storing gold in this case will grow.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
The XAU / USD declines for the third day in a row, breaking through the important support levels 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1275.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1269.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The next target of the decline will be the support level of 1248.00 (Fibonacci level of 50%).
A break of this level could provoke further weakening of the pair XAU / USD and a return to the global downtrend that began in October 2012.
An alternative scenario involves a weakening of the dollar and a return of XAU / USD to the zone above the resistance level of 1280.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart).
Meanwhile, against the background of the strengthening of the dollar, negative dynamics of XAU/USD predominate.
Support levels: 1250.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1260.00, 1269.00, 1275.00, 1277.00, 1280.00, 1290.00, 1300.00, 1305.00, 1312.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1265.00. Take-Profit 1250.00, 1248.00, 1240.00
Buy Stop 1265.00. Stop-Loss 1255.00. Take-Profit 1269.00, 1275.00, 1277.00, 1280.00, 1290.00, 1300.00, 1305.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: pound grows on breakthrough in Brexit talks
08/12/2017
Current dynamics
The pound continues to trade stably ahead of the publication (13:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market, including against the dollar. Strong data are expected: the increase in the number of new places created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy amounted to 200,000 in November (after an increase of 261,000 new seats in October), the average hourly wage rose by 0.3% (after rising in October 0%), unemployment remained at the same level of 4.1%.
It is likely that the dollar will strengthen in response to the publication of strong data.
This is the latest important macro data before the Fed meeting next week (December 12 - 13). If labor market data comes out, as predicted, with strong values, then there will be no last doubt that the Fed will raise the rate at this meeting. And, although this increase, by and large, is already taken into account in prices, strong macro data creates the basis for further rate increases. And this is a strong fundamental factor for the further growth of the dollar.
The optimism of investors regarding the prospects for the US economy has increased. The index of the dollar WSJ, which displays the value of the US currency against a basket of 16 currencies, increased by 0.1%, to 87.25.
In anticipation of the publication of strong data from the labor market, the dollar is growing in price against major competitor currencies, including against safe assets, the yen, the franc, and gold. The exception is, perhaps, only the pound, which maintains positive dynamics, including in the GBP / USD.
Today, the pound received additional support after the results of the talks of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker with the prime ministers of Ireland and Great Britain became known.
British Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced that the UK and the EU reached an agreement under Brexit terms. Now, after six months of tense negotiations, the way to discussing the trade agreement has been opened. "I believe that we have reached the necessary breakthrough", Juncker said. The agreement on the conditions for the exit of the UK from the EU, which include financial conditions, the conditions for the stay of EU citizens in the UK, and the settlement of the border problem with Ireland, means that EU representatives are now likely to agree to further negotiations.
If at the meeting in Brussels on December 14-15 the leaders of the EU countries approve the agreement, then negotiations on further UK trade agreements with the EU and conditions for a transition period may begin in the next few weeks. The UK exit from the EU is scheduled for March 2019. The trade agreement can be signed only after the UK leaves the bloc.
The pound also gets support from positive macro statistics on the UK, coming in recently.
According to official data released on Friday, manufacturing production in October increased by 0.1% compared to September, and by 3.9% compared to October last year.
Industrial production in the UK for the first time in history grew in October for the sixth consecutive month.
Contrary to the gloomy forecasts of economists, the UK economy did not collapse after the referendum on Brexit, and British producers are supported by weakening the pound and strong external demand. The manufacturing sector accounts for about one-fifth of the country's economy, mainly based on services and the domestic market. In general, industrial production in the UK in October compared with October last year increased by 3.6%, which is slightly higher than the forecast.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3410, 1.3365, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3075
Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3440. Stop-Loss 1.3520. Take-Profit 1.3410, 1.3365, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3075
Buy Stop 1.3520. Stop-Loss 1.3440. Take-Profit 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

S&P500: major indices retain positive dynamics
11/12/2017
Current dynamics
Major US stock indices on Monday remain positive dynamics, stably bargaining on eve of the Fed meeting scheduled for December 12-13. On Friday, US indices rose and recorded growth in the past week against the background of the restoration of shares of technology companies and more favorable than expected, the report on the US labor market. As you know, the report of the US Department of Labor pointed to an increase of 228,000 new jobs (with a forecast of +200,000). Unemployment remained at the same level of 4.1%. The picture was somewhat spoiled by the index of the average hourly earnings, which in November was less than the forecast and amounted to 0.2% (the forecast was 0.3%).
This week, important decisions of three other leading central banks in the world and fresh data on inflation are expected. On December 14, sessions of the NBS, the Bank of England and the ECB are scheduled. As unforeseen decisions of central banks are not expected, the most interesting are the forecasts of inflation and economic development.
It is widely expected that the Fed at its meeting will decide to raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.50% (publication of the decision on the rates is scheduled for 19:00 (GMT) on Wednesday). Investors, basically, have already considered this increase in prices, and their attention will be riveted to the report of the Fed with forecasts on inflation and economic growth, as well as the views of FOMC members regarding further plans for monetary policy.
Probably, the Fed will adhere to current plans, according to which it intends to gradually raise rates three more times in 2018.
Against the backdrop of positive, as investors expect, Fed reports, US stock indexes will continue to grow, despite overbought. If, however, the Fed report or the views of FOMC members contain fears about the future of economic development in the US or accelerate the growth of inflation, the stock indexes may short-term, but sharply decline.
Investors will carefully study the text of the report in order to understand the prospects of the course of the current policy of the Federal Reserve System. Volatility during the publication of the report can significantly increase.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2634.0, 2600.0, 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2466.0, 2444.0, 2415.0
Resistance levels: 2663.0, 2700.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2637.0. Stop-Loss 2660.0. Objectives 2634.0, 2600.0, 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2466.0
Buy Stop 2660.0 Stop-Loss 2637.0. Objectives 2663.0, 2685.0, 2700.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com