Tifia Daily Market Analytics

AUD/USD: Downtrend prevails
15/11/2017
Current dynamics
Weak data on the growth of wages in Australia, as well as on the level of consumer confidence, published at the beginning of today's Asian trading session, "knocked" the Australian dollar, which fell 4-month low against the US dollar.
According to data provided on Wednesday, wage growth in the 3rd quarter was 0.5% compared to the previous quarter (the forecast was + 0.7%).
The Australian dollar remained today almost the only major world currency, declining against the US dollar. And so far, the fundamental background for the Australian dollar remains negative.
We are waiting for data from the USA today. It is expected that the growth in retail sales in October was 0% (against growth of 1.6% in September). The consumer price index, which is a key indicator for estimating inflation and changing consumer preferences, is also expected with a value just above 0 (+ 0.1%).
These are very weak values. If the weak data on inflation in the US are confirmed, the US dollar will continue to decline. In this case, an upward correction in the AUD/USD is likely.
Recall that the publication of macro data from the United States is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
AUD / USD continues to decline in the downward channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which runs near the support level of 0.7535 (balance line and EMA200 on the daily chart in April 2017).
AUD / USD is below the key resistance levels 0.7710 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.7740 (EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
Downward dynamics prevails. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly and monthly charts are on the side of sellers.
In the event of further downside, the targets will be support levels of 0.7535, 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014; the minimum of the wave is near 0.6830 level). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7460 will return the AUD / USD into a global downtrend that began in July 2014.
You can proceed to consideration of long positions only after AUD / USD returns to the zone above the resistance level 0.7740 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart). The growth targets in this case will be the levels of 0.7850 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 0.7885 (October highs), 0.7980 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460
Resistance levels: 0.7650, 0.7710, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7660. Take-Profit 0.7580, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460
Buy Stop 0.7660. Stop-Loss 0.7590. Take-Profit 0.7710, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: the pair is trading in the range
16/11/2017
Current dynamics
Unexpectedly grown in October, retail sales have supported the British currency.
According to data published on Thursday, retail sales in the UK increased 0.3% in October (the forecast was + 0.1%). In September, as compared to August, sales decreased by 0.7%. It is noteworthy that the most significant increase in October was the sale of second-hand items. Whether the British are moving to a more economical regime due to the weakening of the pound against the background of rising inflation, whether the residents of the UK have grown interested in antiques in terms of its historical value, which, on the contrary, indicates an increase in their welfare. However, compared to October last year, retail sales for the first time since early 2013 decreased (by 0.3%).
This year, the growth of the UK economy slowed significantly, as consumer expenses are under pressure exerted by inflation accelerated as a result of the fall of the pound after voting for an exit from the EU.
Last week, the European Commission lowered its forecast for UK GDP growth this year, including, due to a weak increase in investment in the UK economy against the backdrop of Brexit.
The statistics presented on Tuesday showed that inflation in the UK in October, as in September, rose to 3.0%. At the same time, prices are growing faster than salaries, which mean that consumer spending will remain low-key. This is a negative factor for the pound and the country's economy, which focuses on domestic consumption.
The pound continues to remain under pressure, even though at the beginning of the month the Bank of England raised its interest rate due to a galloping inflation after the referendum on Brexit. Investors do not believe in the possibility of accelerating the growth of the British economy, as evidenced by the fall, the second week, in a row of the British stock index FTSE. And in the leaders of the fall are shares of British companies that build their business inside the country.
The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has repeatedly said that the central bank will monitor how the economy reacts to the rate hike in November. It is likely that the Bank of England will not raise rates again in the near future, given the uncertainty associated with Brexit.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is restoring its positions today in the foreign exchange market. Macroeconomic indicators remain positive, and growth continues in the corporate sector of the US economy.
Today, the US House of Representatives must pass a vote on the tax bill. Investors will closely monitor the results of voting. Any delay or reduction in the scale of tax cuts can damage to the dollar.
Also today we are waiting for the publication of important macro statistics from the USA. Among the data - primary applications for unemployment (changes in the number of applications for the past week), indices of import / export prices for October, the volume of industrial production and use of production capacities for October. If the US strong macro statistics comes out, the dollar will continue to recover.
The publication of the data is scheduled for 13:30, 14:15 (GMT), and at 14:00, 14:10, 14:30, 17:30, speeches of the representatives of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve will begin, which again may cause volatility in the pound trade and the dollar, if they touch upon the subject of monetary policy of the central banks of the United Kingdom and the United States.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3175, 1.3145, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3140. Stop-Loss 1.3220. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3220. Stop-Loss 1.3140. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Brent: the price may stay in the range until the end of November
17/11/2017
Current dynamics
The third day, oil is trading in the range after a sharp decline in the price at the beginning of the week. January futures for Brent crude oil fell in price by 0.21%, to 61.23 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of today's trading day was close to the level of 61.00 dollars per barrel.
Nevertheless, at the beginning of today's European session, the price is close to 62.00, through which there is a strong short-term resistance level (200-period moving average on the 1-hour chart).
Since the opening of the trading day, the price has risen by 1.00 dollars. Nevertheless, it is highly likely that on the eve of the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at the end of this month, prices may remain in the range. It is expected that the meeting will extend the deal to reduce oil production.
As the UAE oil minister said earlier this week, "there is a potential for extending the deal to cut production in order to reduce the surplus on the market." "We are not satisfied that the price of oil for the year increased from 40 to 64 dollars per barrel, and we will discuss the terms of the extension of the agreement," the minister added.
Today (17:00 GMT), the report of the Baker Hughes oilfield services company on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy, will be published and significantly affects the quotations of oil prices. The current value of the indicator is 738 active drilling rigs.
If the number of drilling rigs increases, this will indicate the next recovery of oil production in the United States. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
A strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature remains in force and keeps prices from a deeper decline. The current decrease should be considered so far as correctional.
In case of resumption of growth, the nearest target will be resistance level 62.90 (EMA200 on the monthly chart). The growth above the level of 65.30 will indicate a full recovery in prices after falling from the level of 65.30 in June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark.
If the decline resumes, then up to the support level of 59.85 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), it should still be considered only as a correction in the uptrend.
Long positions are preferred.
Consideration of short medium-term positions is possible after the price returns under support level 59.85. The first signal for the opening of short positions will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 61.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The medium-term targets in this case will be the support levels of 55.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 54.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) 50.00 (August lows), 48.75, 48.00 , 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 since June 2015).
Support levels: 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 62.00, 62.90, 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 60.80. Stop-Loss 62.20. Take-Profit 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Buy Stop. 62.20. Stop-Loss 60.80. Take-Profit 62.90, 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: the range remains relevant
20/11/2017
Current dynamics
Published in the press on the weekend news, that German Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to create a ruling coalition, caused a surge in volatility at the opening of trading on Monday.
Euro, as well as European stock indexes, above all, DAX (the leading German index), fell at the opening of today. The fall of the euro against the pound in the pair EUR / GBP caused, on the contrary, the growth of the pound, including against the dollar. The pound gets support also against the backdrop of the fact that British Prime Minister Theresa May will most likely convince the government to support the increase in the payment to the European Union for Brexit.
As you know, the financial question is the cornerstone in the Brexit process. In September, British Prime Minister Theresa May promised that Britain would pay its share in the EU budget until 2020. But the EU authorities said that they still do not have a clear understanding of whether the UK will fully fulfill its obligations. The final amount of payments on Brexit may exceed 60 billion euros. It even mentions a figure of 100 billion euros, but representatives of the UK dispute this figure.
Last week, the representative of the EU in Brexit talks from the EU Michelle Barbier stated that it would be time for Britain to clarify the situation on the issues of "exit" from the bloc.
The draft budget will be presented on Wednesday. UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond will present his plan for taxes and expenses, which, apparently, will be met with approval. On this positive for the pound background, the GBP / USD pair can update the local highs of the previous month near the 1.3335 mark.
Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for the pound will remain negative until the details of the UK's exit procedure from the EU are finally understood.
Investors will also be interested in data on public sector borrowing, which will be presented on Tuesday (09:30 GMT), as well as the volume of capital investments of British companies in the third quarter, which will be known on Thursday (09:30 GMT). Also at this time on Thursday will be published the second estimate of GDP growth in the UK in the third quarter. Economists expect that in the third quarter GDP grew by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter, which coincides with a preliminary estimate.
Also volatility in the financial markets may rise on Wednesday, after at 18:00 (GMT) will be published "FOMC minutes". In the published minutes from the November meeting of the Federal Reserve, investors will seek signals on the future of US monetary policy. The publication of the protocol is extremely important for determining the course of the current policy of the Fed and the prospects for raising the interest rate in the United States. According to interest rate futures, the probability of a rate hike in December in the US is above 90%.
Economists expect that the US labor market situation will continue to improve, and inflation will rise to a target level of 2%, which will force the Fed to raise the key interest rate four times next year.
And this is the strongest factor for the growth of the dollar, including in the pair GBP / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3145, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3230. Stop-Loss 1.3280. Take-Profit 1.3200, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3280. Stop-Loss 1.3230. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3400, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

NZD/USD: pair growth will be limited
21/11/2017
Current dynamics
The large-scale decline in the New Zealand dollar, which began in August, continues. An additional downward impulse to the New Zealand currency was given by the general elections held in late September in New Zealand, as a result of which the ruling conservative party was defeated. The achievements of recent years in the growth of the country's economy belong to the former leadership of the country. First of all, this refers to the improvement of the situation on the labor market of the country. For example, unemployment in the 3rd quarter fell to the lowest level since the global financial crisis.
It is still too early to say what adjustments the new government will make to the earlier forecasts. Nevertheless, a survey of business circles conducted earlier this month in the country showed a sharp drop in confidence, and it turned out to be much lower than its average. The new government of New Zealand intends to reassess the RBNZ policy. Now the decision-making in the central bank will have to be carried out by the vote of the committee, whereas the role of the manager will go to the background. Further changes in the RBNZ policy will be discussed with the involvement of independent experts.
As a result of the meeting of the RB of New Zealand held in early November, the interest rate was maintained at the current level of 1.75%.
According to many economists, the RBNZ can return to consideration of the possibility of raising the rate in New Zealand not earlier than the second half of 2018.
Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has already hinted that a weakening of the New Zealand dollar could help the country's exporters.
On the other hand, the US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market both the background of positive macroeconomic data coming from the US, and against expectations of a gradual increase in the rate of the Fed. According to some economists, the Fed can raise the rate not three, but four times in 2018.
Fundamental factors support the further reduction of the NZD / USD pair.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of -3.5% (against the previous value of -1.0%). Dairy products - one of the main exports of New Zealand, so the reduction in world prices for dairy products will harms the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6775
Resistance levels: 0.6863, 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7110, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270


Trading scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.6830. Take-Profit 0.6800, 0.6775, 0.6700
Buy Stop 0.6830. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit 0.6863, 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7100




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

S&P500: major indexes have updated highs
22/11/2017
Current dynamics
World stock indexes on Wednesday continued to rise. On the eve, the major US stock indices Dow Jones Industrial Average, S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite updated record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 23590, S & P 500 added 0.7%, Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%.
The leaders of growth were shares of technology companies. Apple's shares rose 1.9%, International Business Machines shares rose 1%, Microsoft shares rose 1.4%. The shares of these three technological giants made the largest contribution to the growth of DJIA. The shares of retailers also significantly strengthened. "Dollar Tree" went up by 2.4%, after the profit and proceeds of this discounter exceeded expectations. Shares of Hormel grew by 3.3%.
Yesterday's rally completely offset the losses suffered by the indices in the last two weeks. This points to the strength of growth, despite concerns about the high ratings and unclear prospects for the tax reform proposed by the Republicans.
Only a large increase in rates or a decline in the economy, according to economists, could lead to a more significant decline in the American stock market. In the next 6-12 months, this is not expected, therefore, most likely, the bullish trend will continue.
On Wednesday, trading on the stock markets is sluggish in anticipation of a weekend in the US on Thursday, and a shortened one on Friday.
Investors analyzed the statement of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, who said that she would withdraw from the Board of Governors of the Central Bank, as soon as Jerome Powell will replace her at the post in February.
Today Janet Yellen delivered a speech at the business school at New York University, which investors regarded as soft. "We expect inflation to rise (to the target level) in the next one or two years, but I have to say that I'm not sure about it", Yellen said.
"We have almost reached full employment", Yellen said. The unemployment rate in October was 4.1%, becoming the lowest since December 2000. The Fed is facing a problem of low inflation for most of this year, despite the growth of the economy and a strong labor market.
Yellen did not comment on the immediate prospects for monetary policy. The probability of a rate hike in December is above 90%, according to the CME Group. The last time the Fed raised rates in June, to the range of 1% -1.25%. At its meeting on September 19-20, the Fed signaled another increase in rates this year. It is expected that in 2018, the Fed will raise 3 or 4 times.
As Janet Yellen previously stated, the rate hike speaks of the strength of the American economy. It is unlikely that a gradual increase in rates will cause a reversal of the bullish stock market. On the contrary, the banking sector of the economy will benefit from this.
Today, investors will focus on the publication (at 19:00 GMT) of the protocol from the November meeting of the Fed (minutes FOMC). Investors will carefully study the text to understand the outlook for the current Fed policy and the increasing of the interest rate in the US. Volatility during the publication of the protocol can significantly increase, especially against the backdrop of low trading volumes on the eve of the celebration of Thanksgiving Day in the US on Thursday.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2594.0, 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2480.0, 2444.0, 2415.0
Resistance levels: 2598.0, 2600.0, 2650.0, 2700.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2592.0. Stop-Loss 2600.0. Objectives 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2480.0, 2444.0, 2415.0
Buy Stop 2600.0 Stop-Loss 2592.0. Objectives 2650.0, 2700.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CHF: the dollar shows a large-scale decline
23/11/2017
Current dynamics
After yesterday (19:00 GMT) minutes from the November meeting of the Fed were published, the dollar collapsed throughout the currency market. Although, in general, the protocols continued to testify to the Fed's commitment to further tightening monetary policy, there was something new in the rhetoric of the Fed's statements, which alarmed investors. Fed executives said that interest rates in December will be increased by 0.25%, however, they are not sure about the reasons for maintaining sluggish inflation. This, according to investors, can slow down the pace of monetary tightening in the coming year.
The uncertainty about the Fed's leadership regarding the inflation forecast calls into question the vigorous pace of tightening monetary policy in the US. Earlier, it was announced about 3, and according to some information, 4 rate increases in 2018, starting already in March.
As a result, yesterday the index of the dollar WSJ fell by 0.8% after the release of the minutes of the Fed meeting, and today the decline in the dollar continues against the backdrop of low trading volumes. The US and Japanese stock markets are closed today on the occasion of the holidays.
On the Eurozone today, positive macro statistics emerged, which caused the euro to rise, including against the dollar, provoking additional pressure on the dollar.
The dollar fell strongly against safe haven assets, such as gold, yen, franc. Concerning the dynamics of the franc, it is worth paying attention to the speech of the Head of the National Bank of Switzerland, Thomas Jordan, scheduled for today (16:30 GMT).
The Swiss National Bank is pursuing an extra soft monetary policy, trying to disperse inflation in the country and supporting Swiss producers supplying their products for export. To disperse inflation, which is at a record low 0.7%, and lower, the NBS prints huge amounts of francs and uses them to buy foreign shares and bonds. From Thomas Jordan, traders will be waiting for signals about further plans for monetary policy of the National Bank. If he again traditionally declares his adherence to the course of the central bank, then the franc can react with a decrease, including against the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

The negative dynamics is prevailing.
In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.9800, the targets for the decline will be support levels of 0.9775 (Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and from the level of 1.0300), 0.9730 (EMA144, EMA200, bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 0.9800, 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445
Resistance levels: 0.9840, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 0.9840. Stop-Loss 0.9790. Take-Profit 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000
Sell Stop 0.9790. Stop-Loss 0.9840. Take-Profit 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

EUR/USD: The dollar is recovering, but continues to decline against the euro
24/11/2017
Current dynamics
The third day, the EUR / USD is growing and at the beginning of today's European session again reached the level of 1.1875 (last month's highs). The growth of the pair is facilitated by the sharp weakening of the dollar after the publication of the protocol from the November meeting of the Fed, and the strengthening of the euro against the background of positive macro data on the Eurozone, published on Thursday and Friday.
Today we received information about the growth of business optimism in Germany in November.
The German IFO index reached a new record high of 117.5 (against the forecast of 116.6 and 116.8 in October), the index of expectations in Germany rose to 111.0 in November (against the forecast of 108.9 and 109.2 last month).
The economy of Germany, which is the leading economy of the Eurozone, ranked 4th in the world in terms of GDP, is moving towards a boom. Among the leaders of the Fed there is uncertainty about the rate of inflation, which may somewhat reduce investors' optimism about future increases in rates in the US. At the same time, in the minutes of the ECB meeting published on Thursday, it was said about the proposal of some leaders in the guidelines for the future policy of the ECB - not to link the quantitative easing program to the steady growth of inflation.
According to economists, this is a key factor, since it "implies the possibility of completing the program for the purchase of assets in 2018, even if there are no clear signs of accelerating inflation."
The dollar is now attempting to recover from a large-scale decline the day before and is rising against commodity currencies and the yen. Nevertheless, the dollar is falling against the euro.
A number of positive macro data on the Eurozone, received in the last two days, more than offset political uncertainty in Germany, where the ruling conservative party of Angela Merkel, was in the minority after the German chancellor failed to form a coalition with other opposition parties.
In the US today, a shorter working day after Thanksgiving and in view of "Black Friday", when the Christmas sales period starts, and in retail trade huge discounts.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of important macro data from the US, when at 14:45 (GMT) the indexes of business activity in various sectors of the US economy for November will be published, as well as the composite PMI index. The growth of indicators with values above 50 is expected, which is seen as evidence of economic growth.
If the indices are above the forecast values, the dollar will continue to recover. In the second half of the US trading session, the activity of traders will decline, and the volume of trading will be insignificant.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts are on the buyers side. Positive dynamics persists. Nevertheless, the likelihood of a downward correction is also high, if strong macro data comes from the US (at 14:45 GMT).
Support levels: 1.1848, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1740, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1570, 1.1470, 1.1285
Resistance levels: 1.1875, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1840. Stop-Loss 1.1885. Take-Profit 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1740, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1570, 1.1470, 1.1285
Buy Stop 1.1885. Stop-Loss 1.1840. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Brent: on the eve of the OPEC meeting
27/11/2017
Current dynamics
The large-scale weakening of the dollar is reflected not only in the financial markets, but also in the commodity market, including the oil market.
Oil prices have been rising for the fifth consecutive month. During today's Asian session, the price of Brent crude slightly decreased. Futures for Brent crude fell down in price by 0.02%, to 63.85 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of the European session is close to $ 63.20 per barrel, which is about 0.14 dollars lower than the opening price of today's trading day.
Nevertheless, the positive dynamics persists. This week the market will wait for the decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on the further fate of the production reduction deal.
The meeting of OPEC and a number of countries outside the cartel, including Russia, will be held on Thursday in Vienna. Participants will hope for an extension of the agreements to reduce oil production to the end of 2018.
If there is no extension of the deal, then this can alert investors, and the prices in this case may drop sharply.
In the event of a positive outcome of the meeting and the extension of the deal, prices may soon overcome the $ 65.00 mark and go up to the area of $ 70.
As the oil minister of the UAE said earlier this month, "there is the potential for extending the deal to cut production in order to reduce the excess in the market." "We are not satisfied that the price of oil for the year increased from 40 to 64 dollars per barrel, and we will discuss the terms of the extension of the agreement", the minister added.
Saudi Arabia is extremely interested in higher world oil prices for a more profitable IPO of state-owned company Saudi Aramco, which is the largest oil company in the world.
An upward trend in oil prices may also be linked to the risks of a possible production disruption in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
Nevertheless, the negative impact on prices will be provided by the growing production of shale oil in the US, which will create a new inflow of oil to the market.
After a decline in recent months due to hurricanes over the US, the number of oil rigs in the US increased by nine units last week to 747 units, according to Baker Hughes. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units). So, American oil companies still have a significant prospect for growth and increase in production. This will become one of the main negative factors. However, further price increases, perhaps, can not be avoided if the agreement to reduce production on Thursday will be extended.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

So far, a strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature remains in force, and long positions are preferred.
Support levels: 62.90, 62.60, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 62.80. Stop-Loss 63.60. Take-Profit 62.60, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00
Buy Stop 63.60. Stop-Loss 62.80. Take-Profit 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/JPY: The dollar is trying to recover
28/11/2017
Current dynamics
"I think that the agreement (between the government and the Bank of Japan on the target inflation rate of 2%) remains in force, and I do not see any need to change anything", Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said today in a speech to members of the parliamentary committee. "I expect that the Bank of Japan will adhere to the mitigation policy in order to achieve the target level of inflation", he said. At the meeting of the same parliamentary committee, the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda spoke in support of the current soft monetary policy.
These statements were made at a time when market participants expect that the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest-rate targets in the near future to ease the collateral effect of the aggressive easing of monetary policy.
This has become one of the factors of strengthening the yen, including against the dollar, this month.
Expectations for changes in the direction of extra soft policy of the Bank of Japan stopped this month the growth of the Japanese stock index Nikkei Stock Average. This year, the Nikkei index grew by 18%, with almost the growth coming in the period after the beginning of September. Nikkei Stock Average reached a peak this month near the mark of 23400.00 amid the strengthening of shares of export-oriented companies and the victory of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party in the parliamentary elections held in Japan last month. Nikkei Stock Average set a record for the duration of continuous growth (8 consecutive weeks). However, the index subsequently declined amid expectations of a change in the policy of quantitative and qualitative easing by the Bank of Japan and the strengthening of the yen, while other major central world banks made statements that showed the possibility of a gradual tightening of their monetary policies.
Stopping the growth of the Japanese stock market, apparently, has alarmed the monetary authorities of Japan. And today Abe and Kuroda tried to dispel doubts of investors in the commitment of the Bank of Japan to the former soft policy.
The next meeting of the Bank of Japan, dedicated to monetary policy, will be held on December 21. Last month, the Bank of Japan reiterated its commitment to buy government bonds in the amount of 80 trillion yen a year, and the head of the Bank of Japan at a subsequent press conference promised that "we will patiently adhere to the policy of powerful easing in order to achieve inflation of 2%" and " take additional mitigation measures, if necessary ".
At the same time, the dollar is now recovering in the foreign exchange market and continues to grow during the European session, interrupting the drop observed within 4 days after the publication of the minutes from the November meeting of the Fed.
On Monday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, spoke in favor of raising rates "in the near future", in part because of concerns over the economy's overheating.
Today, the dollar also was supported by the statements of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, who said that the economy is close to achieving full employment. Dudley reiterated his view that low inflation with low unemployment - "not really bad" and expressed support for a gradual rate hike.
Investors are waiting for Jerome Powell's speech in the Senate today. "We expect that interest rates will grow a little more, and the amount of the balance will gradually decrease", says the text of his speech, which will begin at 14:44 (GMT).
It is likely that Powell will support the Fed's plan to further raise the rate, which will provide short-term (1-2 days) support to the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 110.80, 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
Levels of resistance: 111.65, 111.85, 112.55, 113.10, 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Trading Scenarios
Buy in the market. Stop Loss 110.70. Take-Profit 111.65, 111.85, 112.55, 113.10, 114.00, 114.40
Sell Stop 110.70. Stop Loss 111.70. Take-Profit 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com