Tifia Daily Market Analytics

DJIA: amid escalating trade contradictions between the US and China
04/04/2018
Current dynamics
World stock markets fell sharply on Wednesday after the state Chinese TV reported that import duties on imports of US goods to China totaled $ 50 billion. This is the answer to the new tariffs, which the US reported on Tuesday.
China announced a 25% duty on US imports, including soybeans, aircraft and cars. Deputy Finance Minister of China Zhu Guangyao and Vice Minister of Commerce of China Van Shouwen will hold a joint press conference on Wednesday evening. "Such unilateral protectionist measures clearly violate the fundamental principles and values of the World Trade Organization", the Chinese embassy in the US said in a statement. China took these measures after the administration of Donald Trump on Tuesday said that it will levy duties from imported Chinese goods in the amount of $ 50 billion in excess of the duties imposed on steel and aluminum. Earlier this week, China introduced reciprocal duties on various American goods, including pork and fruit.
Strengthening trade contradictions between the US and China on Wednesday strengthened the price of gold, which traded with an increase of 0.76%, at 1343.00 dollars per troy ounce. Investors once again prefer safe haven assets, such as the yen, franc, and gold.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped 0.9% after a statement on China's response fees. The key indices of Hong Kong and Singapore lost 2.2% and 1.8% respectively. The South Korean Kospi dropped 1.4%.
The main US indices also fell after this information. DJIA lost 1.8% to the beginning of the US trading session, falling to 23500.0. It is likely that with the opening of trading on US stock exchanges, the indices will continue to decline.
Volatility will raise both at the beginning of the US trading session and during the publication of important macro data on the US.
At 12:00 (GMT) ADP will present a monthly report on employment in the private sector of the US economy for March. This report usually has a strong impact on financial markets, although there is usually no direct correlation with Non-Farm Payrolls. Strong data will positively affect the dollar and indices. The number of employees in the private sector in the US is expected to increase by 205,000 (against +235,000 in February). This is a strong indicator, despite the relative decline.
A little later (at 13:45 and 14:00 GMT) indices of ISM business activity in the US services sector, as well as the indicator of orders for durable goods in the US in March will be published. The indicator reflects the value of orders received by producers of durable goods, implying large investments. The growth of indicators is expected, which will positively affect the indices and the dollar.
Nevertheless, investors will assess the risks and threats that have emerged against the background of escalating trade contradictions between the US and China, which will be the main driver in the financial markets in the short term.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0
Resistance levels: 24050.0, 24080.0, 24425.0, 24800.0, 25000.0, 25750.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 24200.0. Stop-Loss 23300.0. Take-Profit 24425.0, 24800.0, 25000.0, 25750.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 23300.0. Stop-Loss 24200.0. Take-Profit 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CAD: Canadian foreign trade deficit is expected to grow
05/04/2018
Current dynamics
As reported by the US Department of Commerce on Wednesday, orders for manufactured goods in February rose by 1.2% (after falling by -1.3% in January). New orders for durable goods in February rose by 3.0% compared with the previous month.
Activity in the US services sector also grew in March. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday that the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the US non-manufacturing sector in March was 58.8, compared to 59.5 in February. Despite the relative decline, this is a strong indicator; Index values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.
Employment in the private sector of the US in March grew stronger than forecast. According to the submitted Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) data, the number of jobs in the private sector increased by 241,000 in March (the forecast was +205,000).
The ADP report precedes the official data on the number of jobs outside of US agriculture, which will be presented on Friday by the Ministry of Labor. Economists predict that the data will show an increase in the number of jobs in March by 190,000 after an increase of 313,000 in the previous month.
The dollar and US stock indices reacted positively to this information and rose in the second half of the US session on Wednesday. Today, the growth of the indices and the dollar continues.
The dollar is also being helped by the easing of the anxiety about trade wars between the US and China after the countries imposed restrictions on trade in goods with an aggregate value of about $ 100 billion.
On Wednesday, concern about trade wars began to weaken, as representatives of both economic superpowers were ready for negotiations.
The response tariffs on imports of a number of American goods, which China threatens to accept after the introduction of duties in the US, led to a new phase in intensive negotiations on new trade relations.
In recent days, there has been a strengthening of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, including due to favorable expectations regarding the future agreement on NAFTA.
Nevertheless, the Canadian dollar remains vulnerable against data indicating a slowdown in Canadian economic growth, which calls into question the probability of an increase in the Bank of Canada's key interest rate in the coming months. The Canadian economy grew by 3% in 2017, which is the fastest rate among the G7, and inflation in February increased to the highest level in the last three years. However, other data indicate that the economy lost its upward momentum in early 2018.
Concerns about international trade and the high debt burden of consumers are likely to deter the Bank of Canada from raising rates during the first half of this year.
"We all know that interest rates are low, and this suggests that in a more normal period they would be higher than today", said Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz at a press conference in mid-March. "But the transition to this is a very gradual process", he added.
Today at 12:30 (GMT) data on Canada's foreign trade balance for February will be published. The deficit of the foreign trade balance is expected to grow to -2.00 billion Canadian dollars, down from -1.91 billion Canadian dollars in the previous month. This is a negative factor for the Canadian dollar, and when the forecast is confirmed, CAD will decline.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2770, 1.2740, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2830, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2730. Stop-Loss 1.2840. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170
Buy Stop 1.2840. Stop-Loss 1.2730. Take-Profit 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

AUD/USD: on the eve of the publication of NFP
06/04/2018
Current dynamics
Unconditional center of attention of traders today will be the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of monthly data on the US labor market. It is widely expected that
the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector increased by 193,000 in March after an increase of 313,000 in the previous month, unemployment fell to 4.0%, and the average hourly salary of Americans grew by 0.2% (against + 0.1% in February). It is this part of the report (growth of labor payment) that will be of interest to investors. During the December meeting, the leaders of the Fed planned to implement three key rate increases in 2018. However, recent forecasts showed that this year an increasing number of leaders are inclined to four increases, 0.25% each time.
New forecasts showed that now the Fed expects faster economic growth, higher inflation and a more significant reduction in unemployment this year.
So far, inflation in the US is below the target level of 2%, with most of the past five years.
A new fiscal policy in conditions of low unemployment can lead to a sharp rise in wages, which, in turn, will also cause inflation. In this case, the central bank will have to raise rates faster than expected to avoid hyperinflation and bubble growth in stock markets.
That is why the growth rates of salaries, personal income of Americans and inflation in March and April are very important. If they demonstrate faster growth then this can make Fed leaders more confident in their forecasts and plans for interest rates. And this is a strong fundamental factor in favor of the growth of the dollar.
At the same time, other major world central banks adhere to the former soft monetary policy. According to the Governor of the RBA Philip Lowey, at present there are no arguments in favor of changing the monetary policy of Australia.
Last Tuesday, the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 1.5%. "Despite the improvement in the labor market, wage growth rates remain low, which is likely to continue for some time", said RBA Governor Philip Lowe. "Inflation is likely to remain weak, reflecting the slow growth in labor costs and high competition in the retail sector", Lowe said, adding that the RBA will not follow other central banks in the world that are prone to tightening policies. The country is expecting a weak wage growth, as well as low inflation, which means interest rates can remain unchanged for most of 2019, according to many economists.
The key interest rate of the RBA remains at a record low of 1.5% since mid-2016, and now it is expected that the first increase will take place only in 2019. Some economists say that interest rates may remain unchanged for an even longer time, given the weak growth of wages and high underutilization of labor market capacities.
The unemployment rate fluctuated by about 5.5% for most of the past 12 months, and the RBA expressed doubts that full employment will be achieved in the near future.
Thus, the different focus of monetary policy in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD / USD pair.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7645, 0.7620, 0.7590, 0.7500, 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7700, 0.7760, 0.7820, 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7925, 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8130

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7735. Take-Profit 0.7645, 0.7620, 0.7590, 0.7500, 0.7330
Buy Stop 0.7735. Stop-Loss 0.7635. Take-Profit 0.7760, 0.7820, 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

S&P500: the resumption of falling indices is not worth waiting for
09/04/2018
Current dynamics
The renewed tension in the trade relations between the US and China led to a sharp drop in the main US indices at the end of last week.
S & P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite lost more than 2% on Friday. The aggravation of the trade conflict between the US and China threatens the growth of the world economy.
Last week, the White House announced import duties on 1300 categories of Chinese goods, with a total value of 50 billion US dollars. China, in turn, said that it would impose duties on 106 categories of goods from the United States. On Wednesday, the world stock markets collapsed after China announced that it was imposing import duties on US goods worth a total of $ 50 billion.
Nevertheless, since the beginning of today's trading day, futures for US stock indexes are growing. The statements of official representatives of the White House, sounded over the weekend, calmed investors. Representatives of the administration of the US President Donald Trump said that previously issued restrictive measures with respect to Chinese goods have not yet been implemented. In the White House they hope to come to an agreement and prevent the outbreak of a trade war. So, the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Munchin said on Sunday that he "does not expect the beginning of the trade war". Donald Trump wrote on Twitter that he expects China to reduce trade barriers, because "this will be the right decision". According to him, the US will take mutual measures in the field of taxes and conclude an agreement with China on intellectual property. Lawrence Kadlow, who is the head of the National Economic Council, reassured market participants, stressing that "so far nothing has happened".
Meanwhile, if there is no next round of escalation of the trade conflict between China and the US, this week we can expect the growth of US stock indices, as the US will start the reporting season. Positive reports of American companies are expected. According to FactSet, this is the maximum number (53 companies from the S & amp; 500 calculation base, which expect positive quarterly statistics) since 2006. Forecasts are highest in the technological sector.
Investors, it seems, were also encouraged by the news that the leader of North Korea over the weekend confirmed his willingness to discuss with the US the elimination of nuclear weapons.
This week (Wednesday at 18:00 GMT) will be published minutes from the March meeting of the Fed. As you know, the Fed raised the rate by 0.25% to 1.75% and gave a more positive outlook for economic growth. "The outlook for the economy has improved in recent months", the Federal Reserve said in an official statement following the meeting. The central bank expects GDP growth of 2.7% this year and 2.4% in 2019 against earlier forecasts of 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively. The Fed also kept the outlook for two more rate hikes this year, although many investors betting on the dollar's rise were counting on the Fed signaling about 4 rate hikes this year.
If in the protocols investors do not find signals aimed at a more accelerated tightening of monetary policy, then with a progressive positive forecast of the growth of the US economy, the stock indices will receive real support for more confident recovery and the resumption of growth.
For today, important news is not planned. It is likely that the sluggish dynamics of trading will remain the same during the American trading session, but the resumption of the fall of the indices is not yet to be expected.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2605.0, 2572.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Resistance levels: 2630.0, 2636.0, 2683.0, 2700.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2609.0. Stop-Loss 2637.0. Objectives 2605.0, 2572.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Buy Stop 2637.0. Stop-Loss 2609.0. Objectives 2683.0, 2700.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CAD: Canada's business sentiment are improving
10/04/2018
Current dynamics
The tension in the trade relations between the US and China weakened, and the risk appetite for investors again increased. After this, stock markets grew, and commodity and oil prices strengthened. Rising commodity prices, as well as a general weakening of the dollar, contribute to the growth of quotations of commodity currencies against the US dollar.
Investors also took a positive view of the speech of Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Boao Asian Forum on Tuesday. Xi Jinping stressed Beijing's commitment to further liberalization of the economy and promised to give foreign companies more access to the financial and manufacturing sectors of China.
Investors considered Xi Jinping's speech as conciliatory with respect to the US, which gives hope for resolving the trade conflict between the two countries.
On Monday, the Bank of Canada published the results of a survey according to which the mood of the business community remains positive, which is supported by good sales forecasts due to strong demand from the US. The companies signaled a desire to increase capital expenditures in the next year and create new jobs.
The Canadian economy grew by 3% in 2017, which is the fastest rate among the G7 countries, and inflation in February increased to the highest level in the last three years.
The growth of the positive mood of business circles in Canada is also promoted by the expectations regarding the achievement of the NAFTA agreement. The US wants to reach an agreement on the NAFTA in the coming weeks.
In January, the central bank of Canada raised the rate, and left it unchanged in March, pointing to the uncertainty associated with US trade policy. In the second half of the year, the pace of economic growth has slowed significantly, and data point to a slight decrease in GDP in January.
"We all know that interest rates are low, and this suggests that in a more normal period they would be higher than today", said Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz at a press conference in mid-March. "But the transition to this is a very gradual process", he added.
Nevertheless, a positive assessment of the state of the Canadian economy and the mood of the country's business circles is especially important on the eve of the meeting of the Bank of Canada, which will be held on April 18.
Probably, the Bank of Canada will keep the current interest rate at 1.25%. Investors will study the text of the accompanying statement of the Bank of Canada to understand the prospects for the monetary policy of the bank. If signals from the side of the Bank of Canada towards a rapid increase in the interest rate, the Canadian dollar will strengthen, including against the US dollar, which remains vulnerable against a growing deficit of foreign trade and the US federal budget.
On Monday, the Budget Office of the US Congress published its forecast, according to which the recent tax cuts and increased budget spending will make the state budget deficit exceed the $ 1 trillion mark by 2020.
"The increasing of public debt in the late stages of the business cycle is bad", commented Robert Kaplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The aging of the population, the slow increase in labor resources, the slow growth of productivity, and the high level of public debt can become deterrents for GDP growth in the next few years, Kaplan said. For this reason, the Fed should raise rates "gradually and patiently", he added. "In 2018, GDP growth will be relatively high", Kaplan said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. "In 2019-2020, I expect some slowdown in economic growth, so raising rates will also be less rapid", he said.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2740, 1.2770, 1.2820, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2670. Stop-Loss 1.2710. 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170
Buy Stop 1.2710. Stop-Loss 1.2670. Take-Profit 1.2740, 1.2770, 1.2820, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

XAU/USD: demand for gold will continue
11/04/2018
Current dynamics
The focus of traders today will be the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the minutes from the March Fed meeting. At this meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to increase the range of the key interest rate by a quarter of percentage points to 1.5% -1.75% and raised the forecast for the growth of the US economy for the next two years.
"The outlook for the economy has improved in recent months", the Fed said in an official statement following the meeting. The central bank expects GDP growth of 2.7% this year and 2.4% in 2019 against earlier forecasts of 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively, and predict annual inflation at 2,1% next year against 2% in the previous forecast. Investors were disappointed that the Fed confirmed the intention to raise another 2 times the rate this year. However, the new forecasts published after the meeting indicated that the Fed could accelerate the rate of rate hikes in order to cool down the economy after 2019. And this is now the main intrigue - how high is the probability that the Fed will make 4 rate increases this year, rather than 3, as it was planned earlier. In a statement by the Fed following the results of the March meeting, it was said that the risks appear to be approximately balanced.
Nevertheless, there was one significant negative factor. The leaders of the Federal Reserve took a cautious approach to the introduction of duties and other restrictions on trade with China. Investors now need to know how the Fed will react in the event of increased tensions.
It is likely that the number of supporters of a more balanced approach with regard to the rate of further rate increases may increase. It is characteristic that the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan said on Monday that this year he expects two more interest rate hikes. At the same time, he believes that in the coming years the rate of rate hikes will decrease due to a slowdown in the economy.
The aging of the population, the slow increase in labor resources, the slow growth of productivity, and the high level of public debt can become deterrents to GDP growth in the next few years, the president of the Fed-Dallas said. For this reason, the Fed should raise rates "gradually and patiently", he added.
On Monday, the Budget Office of the US Congress published its forecast, according to which the state budget deficit by 2020 will exceed the $ 1 trillion mark.
The recent tax cuts and the increase in budget expenditures create prerequisites for the growth of the federal budget deficit. In addition, the growing deficit of the US foreign trade balance, coupled with the trade conflict with China, makes investors cautious about buying dollars. The dollar remains under pressure, despite the Fed's rate hike.
Under normal conditions, tightening monetary policy of the Fed strengthens the dollar and leads to a decrease in gold quotations.
But at the moment, the dollar is getting cheaper, and gold is rising in price, as geopolitical risks, connected with the prospect of new trade wars, are brought to the forefront.
Perhaps, the trade conflict will not be aggravated, but it is too early to say about its completion. Volatility and negative dynamics of the stock market will continue, at least until the end of May, given the planned introduction of customs duties in the US. Against this background, the demand for gold will continue.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1335.00, 1330.00, 1310.00, 1300.00, 1277.00, 1268.00
Resistance levels: 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

Trade recommendations
Sell Stop 1339.00. Stop-Loss 1355.00. Take-Profit 1335.00, 1330.00, 1310.00, 1300.00
Buy Stop 1355.00. Stop-Loss 1339.00. Take-Profit 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CHF: amid positive macro statistics
12/04/2018
Current dynamics
Against the background of positive macro statistics, received on Wednesday from the US, and after the publication of the minutes from the March meeting of the Fed, the dollar strengthens against the defensive assets such as gold, yen, franc.
As follows from published protocols, the leaders of the Fed are more confident in achieving a target inflation rate of 2% during the year, confirming plans for a gradual increase in interest rates. At the December meeting, the leaders of the Fed planned to raise the interest rate in 2018, and they confirmed two more rate hikes.
In the past year, the drop in unemployment was the argument for higher rates. Since October 2017, unemployment is 4.1%, remaining near the lowest level in 18 years. The leaders also said that the weakening of inflation is temporary, and inflationary pressures have grown in recent months. As reported on Wednesday by the Ministry of Labor, the basic consumer price index in the US rose in March by 2.1% compared to a year earlier. This is the strongest growth in the index since February 2017.
The dollar also replayed a part of losses on the publication on Tuesday of the producer price index (PPI), which in March rose by 0.3% compared to the previous month, which may speak of increasing inflationary pressure in the economy.
Now investors will pay attention to the fact that the basic index of prices for personal consumption expenditures, which the Fed prefers, in March grew by 1.9% compared to March 2017. The Ministry of Commerce will publish it later this month. In February, the growth of the index was 1.6% (with the target level of 2.0%).
This index is preferred for the Fed in determining the level of inflation. But if it turns out to be worse than the forecast, then the probability of 4 rate increases this year will significantly decrease, which will have a negative impact on the dollar.
From the news for today, we are waiting for publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data on the number of new (initial) applications for unemployment benefits in the US over the past week. The result above the expected indicates a weak labor market, which has a negative impact on the US dollar, and vice versa. Previous value of 242 000, forecast - 230 000, which should positively affect the dollar in case of confirmation of the forecast.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.9610, 0.9600, 0.9575, 0.9520, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300
Resistance levels: 0.9640, 0.9690, 0.9745, 0.9810, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9970, 1.0000

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 0.9650. Stop-Loss 0.9590. Take-Profit 0.9690, 0.9745, 0.9810, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9970, 1.0000
Sell Stop 0.9590. Stop-Loss 0.9650. Take-Profit 0.9575, 0.9520, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

AUD/USD: commodity currencies increased against the backdrop of risks with raw material supplies
13/04/2018
Current dynamics
As part of his speech on Wednesday, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said that "the central bank needs good reasons to change its policy". Earlier this month, when the RBA kept the interest rate at 1.5%, Philip Lowe said that "it is likely that inflation will remain weak, reflecting the slow growth in labor costs and high competition in the retail sector". In his opinion, the RBA will not follow other central banks of the world, which are prone to tightening policies.
Economists predict that official inflation data, expected later in April, will show a 0.4% increase in consumer prices in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter and 1.8% compared with the first quarter of 2017, when this rate of core inflation will be slightly higher.
Taking into account the attention that the RBA assigns to achieving the target inflation range (2% -3%), an increase in interest rates is not expected in the coming months.
This is a negative factor for the Australian dollar. Nevertheless, on Friday the Australian dollar is growing, including in cross-pairs and against the US dollar.
Its strengthening is supported by the growth of world commodity prices against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, as well as positive data on China's foreign trade balance, which is Australia's closest and largest trading partner.
Last Thursday, oil prices reached new three-year highs due to increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a decrease in oil production in OPEC and Russia.
WTI futures for NYMEX rose 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $ 67.07 per barrel. Futures for aluminum in the first half of the European session traded with an increase of 1.75%, at 2323.50 dollars per ton. Over the last week, aluminum prices have added 13.1%. Copper futures rose 0.54% to 6859 dollars per ton.
Australia is the world's largest supplier of primary commodities; primarily iron ore, liquefied gas, coal, which accounts for 10% of the country's total foreign trade, oil and oil products, and gold.
China accounts for 25% of Australia's total exports and 13% of imports to Australia.
According to official data released on Friday, the surplus of foreign trade in March was 326.1 billion yuan, and imports to China increased by 14.4%, including through the importation of raw materials into the country. Australia as a supplier of raw materials to China is at the forefront.
Despite the fact that the RBA intends to maintain a soft monetary policy, as the RBA said on Wednesday Philip Lowe, the Australian dollar is growing.
Even though the different focus of monetary policy in the US and Australia is the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening AUD / USD, today AUD / USD is growing. Risks associated with interruptions in the supply of primary commodities to the world market are coming to the fore.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7760, 0.7690, 0.7645, 0.7620, 0.7590, 0.7500, 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7820, 0.7840, 0.7900, 0.7930, 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8130

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7750. Stop-Loss 0.7810. Take-Profit 0.7700, 0.7690, 0.7645, 0.7620, 0.7590, 0.7500, 0.7330
Buy Stop 0.7830. Stop-Loss 0.7750. Take-Profit 0.7840, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

S&P500: the intensity has been asleep; investors switched attention to economic data
16/04/2018
Current dynamics
In recent weeks, investors have been alarmed by geopolitical tensions, by lower than expected macroeconomic data, and trade conflicts.
Investors sighed with relief after the air strikes on Syria, inflicted on Saturday, did not lead to a serious aggravation of the conflict and not escalate into a large-scale military conflict. A representative of the Pentagon said that a single wave of blows has been completed so far. President Donald Trump on Saturday wrote on Twitter that "the task is completed".
The yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to 2.851% from 2.828%. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the other 6 major currencies, is declining from the opening of the trading day, dropping from 89.50 to 89.28 at the beginning of the US trading session.
Uncertainty may increase again, but the darkest scenario has not yet been realized, which allowed the risky assets to recover. Investors turned their attention to economic data and corporate reporting. On Monday, traders are waiting for new US data on retail sales. Retail sales are expected to grow by + 0.4% in March (against a decline of -0.3% in February and the previous forecast release of -0.1%), which should positively affect the US stock indexes when confirming the forecast.
Volatility in the stock markets could rise sharply on Tuesday during the Asian session, when at 02:00 (GMT) Chinese data on economic growth (GDP for the first quarter) and the March business activity statistics and industrial production, as well as the level of retail sales will be published.
This will be particularly reflected in the dynamics of Asian stock indices, but will affect the US indices as well.
Also it is worth paying attention to today's speech by representatives of the Fed (at 16:00 and 17:15 GMT). If they touch on the topic of monetary policy in the US, then volatility in the dynamics of US stock indices will grow (in the short term).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2650.0, 2645.0, 2630.0, 2605.0, 2572.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Resistance levels: 2680.0, 2700.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2645.0. Stop-Loss 2685.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2605.0, 2572.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Buy Stop 2685.0. Stop-Loss 2645.0. Objectives 2700.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: pound declined despite rising wages
17/04/2018
Current dynamics
Despite the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) at the beginning of the European session indicating that the British labor market is in good shape, the pound declined after the publication of the data. Earlier, the GBP / USD reached its highest level in 22 months at 1.4375.
The average hourly earnings of Britons (without premiums) for the period December-February increased by 2.8%, which means that real wages increased by 0.1%. This was the fastest growth rate of wages since 2015. Unemployment fell to 4.2% against 4.3% for the period November-January, the lowest level since 1975. The data indicate that the UK labor market remains healthy.
Probably, the presented data will strengthen expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates to 0.75% at its May meeting (May 10). Earlier, the Bank of England signaled that in the coming years it plans to raise rates three or more times to contain inflation.
Despite the current growth, the pound is undervalued, which implies its further possible growth.
In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in a decade to contain inflation. Recently, central bank officials signaled that the rate may need to be raised earlier than originally expected. This is a strong factor in favor of strengthening the pound.
Nevertheless, there are still a lot of uncertainties in the issue of leaving the UK from the EU, and the Teresa May government is weak, and the Bank of England against this background may postpone the issue of tightening monetary policy.
Today, the focus of traders will be the publication of a block of important macro data for the US at 12:30 (GMT), and between 13:15 and 17:10, several members of the FOMC (Williams, Quorles, Harker, Evans) are scheduled to perform. If they touch upon the subject of the monetary policy of the Fed and speak in favor of faster rates of tightening of the policy of the American central bank, the dollar may strengthen for a short time, including in the GBP / USD. The tougher the rhetoric of their speeches, the stronger the dollar will be strengthened.
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Support levels: 1.4302, 1.4263, 1.4205, 1.4100, 1.4075, 1.3970, 1.3725, 1.3600
Resistance levels: 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760

Trading Scenarios
Buy Limit 1.4305, 1.4265. Stop-Loss 1.4225. Take-Profit 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760
Buy Stop 1.1.4350. Stop-Loss 1.4285. Take-Profit 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760



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