Tifia Daily Market Analytics

S&P500: indexes continue to decline
02/03/2018
Current dynamics
Major US stock indexes continue to decline, receiving a negative impulse at the beginning of the week from the speech of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell.
As you know, during his first official speech before Congress on Tuesday, Powell drew a very positive picture of the state of the American economy, confirming the Fed's intention to gradually tighten monetary policy.
"Economic prospects remain strong. A further gradual increase in the rate of federal funds will best contribute to the achievement of the goals of the Fed", in his opinion.
Jerome Powell said that the Fed "will continue to seek a balance between avoiding overheating of the economy" and the achievement of annual inflation of 2%. Many investors considered Powell's speech as a signal to the Fed intending to hold 3 interest rate increases planned at the December meeting. Some market participants felt that the Fed could implement even 4 increases instead of the previously planned 3 increases. According to CME, the probability of 4 rate increases this year is estimated by investors at 34%. On Monday, this probability was 24%, and a month ago - 23%.
The tightening of monetary policy negatively affects the dynamics of the stock markets, since it leads to an increase in the cost of borrowing. Investors in this case prefer the dollar as a more reliable form of investment in comparison with highly risky assets.
On Friday, the major US stock indexes are down for the fourth consecutive day.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump, who announced that next week he will approve the plan to introduce new import duties on steel and aluminum by 25% and 10%, respectively, contributed to this decline. Market participants are afraid of accelerating inflation and slowing the growth of US GDP due to new import tariffs. From China and Europe, statements from the authorities have already followed that they will take counter measures to protect their interests.
Since the beginning of the week, the DJIA dropped 3.3% to 24510.0 points, the S & P500 fell 3.1% to 2670.0 points. Thus, DJIA for 2018 decreased by 0.4% and the S & P500 - by 0.2%, again moving into the correction zone. European stock markets also fell. STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.3%, German DAX fell 2.0%, and the British FTSE and French CAC fell 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively.
World trade wars have not brought long-term benefits to anyone. The yield of 10-year US government bonds fell to 2.802% from 2.870% on Wednesday, showing the most significant drop since September and indicating that investors are buying safer assets.
Today, important news on the US is not expected. It is likely that the stock indexes, including the S & P500, will finish today's trading session in negative territory. While the S & P500 is below the short-term resistance level of 2725.0 (200-period moving average on 1-hour and 4-hour charts), it is necessary to consider only short positions with objectives at support levels 2630.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to growth from February 2016 and EMA144 on the daily chart), 2580.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2672.0, 2630.0, 2580.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2725.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 2686.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2614.0, 2585.0, 2530.0
Buy Stop 2686.0. Stop-Loss 2665.0. Objectives 2725.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

NZD/USD: before publishing data from the dairy auction
06/03/2018
Current dynamics
Investors are still assessing the possible long-term impact on international trade relations from the recent decision of the White House to impose import duties on steel and aluminum. "America is first of all". The US, as usual, does not particularly consider the interests of their closest trading partners when it comes to the interests of the US itself. "When a country (the USA) loses many billions of dollars in trade with almost all the countries with which it conducts business, trade wars are good, and they are easy to win", Trump wrote on Twitter, making it clear that these are normal methods of the US administration .
For American companies, primarily working in these sectors of the economy, this may be good, but for the nearest US trading partners - not very much. The European Commission and China announced the possibility of applying retaliatory measures.
If the US stock indices appear to have positively perceived the information on the protection of the domestic market through the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum,
the dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, strengthening against commodity currencies, and declining against the yen and European currencies. The second day the futures for the DXY index, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 other currencies, are trading near the 89.90 mark.
At the beginning of today's European session, the dollar is growing against Canadian and Australian dollars, but is down against the New Zealand dollar.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the next dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the dairy price index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a slight decrease (-0.5%) against the previous values of + 5.9%, + 4.9%, + 2.2% and +0.4 %. If the prices for dairy products rise again, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD. The decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotations of the New Zealand dollar.
Also worth paying attention to the publication on Thursday (02:00 GMT) of data on China's foreign trade balance (in February) which may have a significant impact on the New Zealand dollar and cause volatility in the NZD / USD pair, as China is the largest trade and economic partner of New Zealand and the buyer of agricultural products of the country.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800
Resistance levels: 0.7258, 0.7265, 0.7300, 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7230. Stop-Loss 0.7280. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080, 0.6900, 0.6865
Buy Stop 0.7280. Stop-Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

S&P500: investors are concerned about the possibility of commencement of trade wars
07/03/2018
Current dynamics
More recently (at the end of last week), participants in the global financial market were concerned about the US decision to impose import duties on steel and aluminum. Today, this story was developed after it became known about the resignation of the chief economic adviser to President Donald Trump Gary Cohn, who opposed the introduction of new duties. His resignation upset the market participants, pointing out that Trump intends to pursue a tougher policy with regard to trading partners, and can unleash a large-scale trade war.
On this news, the currencies of those countries that actively trade with the US, including the Mexican peso and commodity currencies - the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar - fell sharply.
Also, the main US stock indexes fell, and asylum assets rose in price because of fears about US policy. The yield on 10-year government bonds fell to 2.863% from 2.877%, while the yen rose 0.4% against the dollar during the Asian trading session.
Representatives of the world's largest economies are extremely negative about the intentions of the White House to introduce import duties.
Thus, the Minister of Economy of Germany, Brigitte Tsipris, said today that "in the event of a worsening situation, the EU is ready to respond appropriately, but our goal is to avoid a trade conflict". "Trade brings prosperity when it is based on exchange and interaction", she said. So far, the signals coming from the US are bothering me".
The EU intends to challenge the planned US introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum.
Investors are worried that the main US trading partners will retaliate and this will start the world trade war, which will negatively affect world economic growth. The EU has already announced the preparation of a package of measures worth 3.5 billion US dollars in respect of imports from the United States. In response, Trump promised to introduce a tax on cars imported from the EU.
The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said on Wednesday that it could be "very bad" for the global economy. "If the process grows, it will be very bad. If retaliatory measures are taken, the world economy will suffer a very strong blow", Philip Lowe said.
Meanwhile, the main US stock indexes are at the beginning of the European trading session in the negative territory after they collapsed at the opening of today's trading day after the resignation of Gary Cohn.
Today we expect a busy trading day.
After 13:15 to 13:30 (GMT), a block of important macro data from the US will be published, including the ADP report on employment in the private sector of the US economy (for February), foreign trade balance (January), inflation indicator of costs per unit labor force and labor productivity outside the agricultural sector for the 4th quarter, at 13:30 the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision will be published.
The growing uncertainty in trade relations between Canada and the United States will help ensure that the Bank of Canada retains the key interest rate unchanged at 1.25%.
We would like to remind you that volatility in this period will rise sharply, and this must be taken into account when making trading decisions.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2672.0, 2630.0, 2590.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2720.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2680.0. Stop-Loss 2735.0. Objectives 2670.0, 2630.0, 2600.0, 2590.0, 2530.0
Buy Stop 2735.0. Stop-Loss 2680.0. Objectives 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

NZD/USD: Positive dynamics persists
12/03/2018
Current dynamics
Published last week with the results of the dairy auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT), showed a slight decline in world prices for dairy products (-0,6%). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the dairy price index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a slight decrease (-0.5%) against the previous values of + 5.9%, + 4.9%, + 2.2% and +0.4 %. Nevertheless, the New Zealand dollar is the most successful of all other currency-competitors traded against the US dollar in recent days.
Investors continue to assess the impact of the decision of the White House on the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum on international trade relations. Commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, rose in response to this decision. Economists believe that the decision to impose import duties will positively affect the US economy. At least, the main US stock indexes are growing again, and the NASDAQ100 index updated its absolute maximum on Friday, and on Monday the NASDAQ100 futures are again trading higher, near the 7130.0 mark. Traditionally, it is believed that economic growth is accompanied by an increase in demand for primary commodities. The share of the United States in world GDP is estimated at 16-20%. Accordingly, the growth of the world's largest economy assumes a growing demand for commodities. The current weakening of the US dollar contributes to higher commodity prices, which also positively affects the quotations of commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar.
Wednesday (21:45 GMT) is expected to publish data on New Zealand's GDP for the 4th quarter (latest release). It is expected that GDP grew by 0.8% in Q4 (against + 0.6% in Q3), implying an annual GDP growth of about 2.5% -3.0%. This is strong enough data. If the data is confirmed, the New Zealand currency will strengthen, including in the NZD / USD.
On Tuesday at 21:45 (GMT) data on the balance of payments of New Zealand will be published.
Reducing the current account deficit in the balance of payments of New Zealand (expected to reach $ 2.40 billion from NZ $ 4.68 billion) will support the New Zealand currency. In the absence of important news in the economic calendar, flat and low trading volumes are expected in the foreign exchange market today. However, it is worth paying attention to the speech (at 23:45 GMT) of the deputy head of the RBNZ Grant Spencer. If he touches on the RBNZ monetary policy, then the volatility of the New Zealand dollar trades will go up. Rigid rhetoric of his speech on inflation and the likelihood of tightening monetary policy will cause the New Zealand dollar to grow.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Support levels: 0.7300, 0.7270, 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800
Resistance levels: 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7290. Stop-Loss 0.7330. Take-Profit 0.7270, 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7165
Buy Stop 0.7330. Stop-Loss 0.7290. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CAD: Bank of Canada concerned about talks over NAFTA
13/03/2018
Current dynamics
As you know, last week the Bank of Canada retained its key rate at the previous level of 1.25%, referring to the growing uncertainty of the prospects for negotiations on the NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement). The USA is Canada's largest trading partner. Protectionist measures on the part of the US cause concern among all US trade partners, including in the leadership of Canada and its central bank. Recent US rhetoric increases the likelihood of a negative outcome of the NAFTA negotiations. As you know, the USA introduced 25% of the duty on the import of steel and 10% of the duty on the import of aluminum to the USA from all countries, except Canada and Mexico, the US partners for NAFTA. Import tariffs come into force 15 days after last Thursday, US President Donald Trump signed an order to impose duties. For Canada and Mexico, there is a 30-day delay. If the participating countries (the USA, Canada, Mexico) manage to agree on new conditions for the extension of NAFTA, steel and aluminum tariffs for Canada and Mexico will not be introduced. Otherwise, Trump promised to leave NAFTA.
The US share in Canada's exports is about 75%, which is 20% of Canada's gross domestic product.
The economy of Canada lost 88,000 jobs in January. In addition, the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, published earlier this month, pointed out that companies' investments could significantly slow down this year.
Last Wednesday, when the meeting was held, the Bank of Canada said that economic prospects are expected to justify higher interest rates over time. However, it is possible that instead of tightening the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, some monetary easing will be required. This will become especially important if there are difficulties in the mutual trade relations between Canada and the United States. Any disruptions in trade flows between these two countries can have big consequences for the Canadian economy.
Many investors expect that this year the Fed will raise rates four times, rather than three, as the central bank's leaders planned at a meeting in December. If the Federal Reserve receives signals about the intention to speed up the tightening of the policy, it will support the dollar.
While the Fed plans to further tighten monetary policy, the failure of other major world central banks to normalize monetary policy will help strengthen the US dollar.
Today, investors will pay attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz, which will begin at 14:30 (GMT). The soft rhetoric of his speech on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, as well as the concerns voiced by Poloz about US protectionist actions and the prospects for NAFTA, will further lower the Canadian dollar against the US dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2800, 1.2740, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3100

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2790. Stop-Loss 1.2870. Take-Profit 1.2740, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170
Buy Stop 1.2870. Stop-Loss 1.2790. Take-Profit 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3100



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Brent: the current situation can be described as flat
14/03/2018
Current dynamics
The Energy Information Administration of the US Energy Ministry recently made another forecast, according to which, the production of shale oil in the country in April will increase by 131,000 barrels a day to a record level of 6.95 million barrels per day.
The rapid growth in the production of shale oil in the US reduces OPEC's efforts to stabilize the level of demand and supply of oil and maintain world oil prices. As you know, the OPEC agreement on the reduction of oil production by about 1.8 million barrels per day was signed in 2016 and will continue until the end of 2018.
In the opinion of the UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrui, who is the president of OPEC at the present time, "reducing the cartel's production has prevented chaos in the oil market". And this, to a large extent, is true. But the increase in oil prices began, mainly, from June 2017, when OPEC confirmed the extension of the contract to reduce oil production before the end of 2018. Moreover, Saudi Energy Minister Khaled Al-Falih said at a press conference in Riyadh in February that Saudi Arabia is ready to take additional measures in this direction. "We believe that it is better for us to take redundant steps (to reduce supply) and ensure the restoration of the balance of the market", said Khaled Al-Falih.
Meanwhile, in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), disagreements arose over the necessary level of oil prices.
Saudi Arabia is aiming for prices around $ 70 per barrel or higher, while Iran would like prices to be around $ 60 per barrel. According to Iran, prices in the levels of $70 per barrel will provoke oil companies in the US to increase production even more rapidly, which will cause a collapse in prices.
There is a certain share of truth in this. For example, US Deputy Energy Minister Dan Brulett said recently that US oil production this year may show "phenomenal" growth, making oil rally almost impossible.
Participants in the oil market are waiting for OPEC's monthly reports, which will be released this week.
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), which was published on Tuesday evening, US oil inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels last week. However, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels, and distillate stocks decreased by 4.3 million barrels, which could push up oil prices.
And today the attention of traders will be riveted to the report of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy on data on oil reserves in the US, which will be published at 14:30 (GMT). It is expected that oil and oil products stocks in the US increased by 2,023 million barrels last week. If the data is confirmed, oil quotes may decrease.
Meanwhile, the second week Brent crude oil is trading near the level of 65.00 dollars per barrel. It seems that the oil market lacks drivers for either resuming growth, or for further, deeper, lowering. Thus, the current situation can be described as flat.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 64.80, 64.00, 63.00, 61.80, 60.50, 56.50
Resistance levels: 65.40, 66.50, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00, 70.75

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 63.80. Stop-Loss 65.70. Take-Profit 63.00, 61.80, 60.50, 56.50
Buy Stop 65.70. Stop-Loss 63.80. Take-Profit 66.50, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00





*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

EUR/USD: inflation in the Eurozone is still low to change the parameters of the QE program
15/03/2018
Current dynamics
Speaking on Wednesday at the conference, ECB President Mario Draghi again drew the attention of investors to low inflation in the Eurozone, as well as to the increased risks for the European economy in connection with the prospect of a new trade war with the United States. "Among the risk factors for the outlook for inflation are new US trade measures, the strengthening of the euro. We will adhere to the order that is outlined in our leading indications, namely, our promise to maintain interest rates at current levels for a long time after the completion of net purchases (bonds)", Draghi said.
Thus, on the part of the ECB leadership, the ECB's commitment to a soft monetary policy is again and again being confirmed. Interest rates will not increase "for a long period of time", Draghi said last week, when the ECB's regular meeting on monetary policy was held.
In response to Mario Draghi's declarations, the euro is falling against the dollar, but the deeper decline of the euro is constrained by its growth in crosses against other currencies, primarily commodity ones.
Friday (10:00 GMT) is expected to publish important inflationary indicators for the Eurozone, including labor costs (in the fourth quarter), consumer price indices for February. According to these data, consumer inflation in the Eurozone remains low. It is expected that the consumer price index in February rose by 0.2% (against the decline of -0.9% in January) and by 1.2% in annual terms. However, the publication of these data, despite their importance, will most likely provoke a weak market reaction, since this is a later release, and the data is already included in the prices. Volatility may increase in case of deviation from the forecast values.
Investors are beginning to prepare for a meeting of the Fed, which will be held next week (March 20-21). It is expected that the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25%. Market participants will carefully study the text of the Fed's accompanying statement on this decision in order to understand the prospects for monetary policy.
Until the end of this week, EUR / USD is likely to remain positive, staying in the zone above support levels 1.2330 (EMA200 on the monthly chart), 1.2310 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
EUR / USD remains positive dynamics, trading above support levels of 1.2330, 1.2310. Long positions are relevant. The first signal for the opening of short positions will be the break of the short-term support level 1.2348 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). In case of breakdown of the support level 1.2310 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), EUR / USD will go to the lower border of the range formed between the levels 1.2550 and 1.2200 (Fibonacci level 50% of correction to the EUR / USD drop from 1.3900 in the last wave of decline since May 2014).
The breakdown of support level 1.2200 (50% Fibonacci level) will significantly worsen the outlook for EUR / USD and provoke a decline to support level 1.2100 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, while EUR / USD is trading above support levels 1.1870 (200-period moving average on the daily chart), 1.1790 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), a long-term bullish trend persists.



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

DJIA: the index completes the week in a negative territory
16/03/2018
Current dynamics
On Thursday, the US stock index Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to 24873.00 points. Nevertheless, the DJIA seems to be wrapping up this week and the first half of the month in negative territory. DIJA remains in the bullish long-term trend; however, the positive momentum of further growth is dying out more and more.
Investors continue to assess the impact of the protectionist trade measures of the Donald Trump administration, and also expect additional signals from the Federal Reserve regarding a more rapid increase in interest rates in the United States.
After earlier in March, US President Donald Trump signed a decree on the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum, representatives of the world's largest economies protested against US protectionist actions. The EU has already prepared a package of countermeasures against American goods. In response, Trump promised to introduce a tax on cars imported from the EU. Now the White House is exploring the possibility of implementing a package of initiatives aimed against China, including duties on the import of certain goods.
However, China is the largest holder of US government bonds and stock assets. If China, in response to the US protectionist actions, begins to massively get rid of them, then this may cause a new wave of sales on the US stock market.
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 2.824% from 2.815% on Wednesday, staying close to the psychologically important level of 3.000%. The increase in bond yields in early 2018 was one of the reasons for the decline in world stock markets. Profitability can grow even more on the background of the normalization of monetary policy and the further strengthening of the world economy. If their profitability exceeds the mark of 3.000%, it will sharply increase the degree of anxiety and lead to another wave of sales of stock assets, according to many economists.
Investors are still cautious after the sharp sales observed in early February.
Now investors are preparing for the Fed meeting, which will be held next week (March 20-21). It is expected that the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25%. Market participants will carefully study the text of the Fed's accompanying statement on this decision in order to understand the prospects for monetary policy. At the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018 and 2 increases in 2019. If the Federal Reserve signals to the Fed's determination to tighten monetary policy at a faster pace, the outlook for the US stock market will deteriorate significantly.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 24650.0, 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0
Resistance levels: 25050.0, 25750.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 25070.0. Stop-Loss 24600.0. Take-Profit 25200.0, 25750.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 24600.0. Stop-Loss 25070.0. Take-Profit 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

XAU/USD: The dollar is rising before the Fed meeting
19/03/2018
Current dynamics
While the dollar is strengthening in the foreign exchange market, and market participants are preparing for the Fed meeting, which will be held on March 20-21, gold prices are down, today is the fifth week in a row. The growth of the dollar makes gold and other commodities traded for the US currency, less attractive to holders of other currencies.
As expected, the Fed will raise the range of key interest rates by 25 basis points, to 1.50% -1.75%. Earlier in December, Fed executives planned 3 interest rate increases in 2018, and 2 increases in 2019. At the January meeting, the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intentions to support the previously planned plans to tighten monetary policy amid the fast-growing US economy.
So, the macro data published on Friday confirmed the growth of industrial production in the USA. The index of industrial production in February was + 1.1% (the forecast was + 0.3%, the previous value was -0.3%). At the same time, the consumer confidence index rose to 102.0 in March (the forecast was 99.3 and 99.7 - the previous value), a maximum of almost 14 years.
It is likely that at the March meeting, the Fed will also raise its forecast for economic growth for the next two years. The expected increase in budget spending in the US, as well as stimulation of the economy due to lower taxes on the activities of US corporations against the backdrop of low unemployment will contribute to the growth of inflationary pressures. This, in turn, can force the Fed to accelerate the pace of normalizing monetary policy.
Investors are trying to understand whether the Fed will raise interest rates 4 times, whereas the Fed previously talked about 3 interest rate increases in 2018. At higher interest rates, gold is difficult to compete with assets that generate interest income, for example, with treasury bonds. Basically, economists expect that a further increase in the interest rate in the US this year will put pressure on gold. However, the decline in gold prices will be restrained by its purchases from retail buyers and also by some investors using gold to hedge the risks of growth in consumer prices amid the expected increase in inflation.
The drop in gold prices will also be hampered by political and economic uncertainty in the world, as many investors prefer to invest in reliable assets during periods of instability in the markets. Another reshuffle in the administration of the White House, as well as the introduction of duties on imports of steel and aluminum in the US, which provoked fears of unleashing trade wars, increase the demand for protective assets, such as gold.
For today, important news in the economic calendar is not planned, and, apparently, the positive dynamics of the dollar will remain, and the pair XAU / USD will remain under pressure, until Wednesday. At 18:00 (GMT) on Wednesday, the Fed's interest rate decision will be published and the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank Jerome Powell will begin, and the comments of the Fed on the decision and prospects of monetary policy in the US will be published.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1308.00, 1303.00, 1294.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1324.00, 1330.00, 1341.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1307.00. Stop-Loss 1316.00. Take-Profit 1303.00, 1294.00, 1277.00, 1268.00
Buy Stop 1316.00. Stop-Loss 1307.00. Take-Profit 1324.00, 1330.00, 1341.00, 1361.00, 1365.00




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

NZD/USD: on the eve of the Fed and the RBNZ meetings
20/03/2018
Current dynamics
On the eve of the Fed meeting and the publication of an interest rate decision on Wednesday, the US dollar is rising against commodity currencies, including against the New Zealand dollar.
Most market participants expect that the Fed will announce the first interest rate increase in 2018, as well as give slightly more positive predictions about the growth of the US economy in the next 2 years. The forecast of economists for 2018 envisages US GDP growth of 2.7%, as well as a decrease in unemployment to 3.9% by the middle of the year and 3.8% by December.
At the same time, many market participants will look for signals in the Federal Reserve's statement regarding the possibility of accelerating rates of rate hikes this year in order to prevent overheating of the economy. The Fed's inclination towards more aggressive policy tightening may support the dollar, as raising borrowing costs in the US makes the dollar more attractive to investors.
If the Fed leaves its forecast for 3 rate increases this year, the US dollar may fall, as the probability that rates will be raised this year 3 times is already taken into account in the dollar quotes.
On the same day, when the decision of the Federal Reserve on the rates will be published, the RBNZ meeting on monetary policy in New Zealand will conclude. The RBNZ decision on the rates will be published on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT).
As expected, the interest rate will remain at the same level of 1.75%. The New Zealand currency remains robust against the US dollar, despite the threat of a trade war between China and the United States, the largest trade and economic partners of New Zealand.
According to the data released last week, New Zealand's GDP grew by 0.6% in the fourth quarter (+ 2.9% in annual terms). This is quite strong data, indicating a stable state of the New Zealand economy, which remains one of the fastest growing in the world. Nevertheless, the RBNZ is unlikely to go on to tighten monetary policy, economists expect, until mid-2019.
If, however, the accompanying statement of the RBNZ, which will also be published on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT), contain signals on the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the near future, then the New Zealand dollar may strengthen, including against the US dollar, even in spite of The Fed's plans to tighten monetary policy in the US.
From the news for today we are waiting for the data with the results of the milk auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT), which will be published after 13:00 (GMT).
The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. If the data points to another decline in world prices for dairy products, primarily for milk powder, the New Zealand dollar will decrease. Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a slight decrease (-0.6%) against the previous values of -0.5%, + 5.9%, + 4.9%, +2.2 % and + 0.4%.
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Support levels: 0.7180, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800
Resistance levels: 0.7240, 0.7250, 0.7270, 0.7350, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7180, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.7230. Stop-Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7250, 0.7270, 0.7350, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500



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Уровни поддержки и сопротивления
В настоящий момент пара NZD/USD торгуется в зоне сильных уровней - поддержки 0.7165 (ЕМА200 на дневном графике) и сопротивления 0.7250 (ЕМА200 на недельном графике).
Индикаторы OsMA и Стохастик на 4-часовом, дневном, недельном графиках рекомендуют короткие позиции.
Пока NZD/USD находится выше уровня поддержки 0.7165, сохраняется долгосрочная позитивная динамика. Тем не менее, длинные позиции можно рассматривать после возврата NZD/USD в зону выше уровня сопротивления 0.7270 (ЕМА200 на 4-часовом графике). Ближайшая цель роста находится вблизи мартовского максимума на отметке 0.7350.
Пока что предпочтительны короткие позиции с ближайшей целью на уровне поддержки 0.7165 (ЕМА200 на дневном графике).
Пробой уровня поддержки 0.7165 (ЕМА200 на дневном графике) значительно ухудшит перспективы NZD/USD, а пробой ключевого уровня поддержки 0.7080 (ЕМА200 на месячном графике) будет означать окончание восходящей коррекции, начавшейся в сентябре 2015 года.
Пробой уровня поддержки 0.6865 (уровень Фибоначчи 23,6% восходящей коррекции к глобальной волне снижения пары с уровня 0.8800, начавшейся в июле 2014 года; минимумы волны находятся вблизи уровня 0.6260) будет означать возврат в глобальный нисходящий тренд.
Уровни поддержки: 0.7180, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800
Уровни сопротивления: 0.7240, 0.7250, 0.7270, 0.7350, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

Торговые сценарии
Sell по-рынку. Stop-Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7180, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.7230. Stop-Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7250, 0.7270, 0.7350, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500


*) Актуальную и развернутую аналитику и новости по рынку форекс смотри на сайте tifia.com компании Tifia Forex Broker