Tifia Daily Market Analytics

AUD/USD: The strength of the Australian dollar reflects the weakness of the US dollar
16/02/2018
Current dynamics
During his speech today before the parliament, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Philip Lowey said that he "would prefer a lower exchange rate". In his opinion, "there is no reason to raise rates in the short term". Lowey noted that "inflation remains low", although "business sentiment is improving".
Approximately the same statements Lowey did before. Therefore, his today's speech did not bring surprises.
The Australian dollar reacted with restraint to Lowey's speech. Nevertheless, the Australian dollar is rising against the US dollar, justifying Lowey's view that "the strength of the Australian dollar reflects the weakness of the US dollar".
And, indeed, the US dollar remains under pressure, continuing to decline against its major counterparts. The dynamics of the dollar is not affected even by the macro statistics coming from the US, indicating an increase in inflation. So, on Thursday there were one more data, indicating the growth of inflationary pressure.
The producer price index (PPI), reflecting changes in prices for goods and services of American companies, in January rose by 0.4%, which is the best result since April 2017.
The consumer price index (CPI) released on Wednesday also surpassed expectations. The growth of consumer inflation in January was 2.1% (in annual terms). The CPI base index increased by 1.8% compared to the same period in 2017. According to economists, inflation will be above the target level of 2% this year already.
The growth of inflation against the backdrop of a strong labor market and a stable state of the US economy gives the Fed a reason to tighten monetary policy more rapidly. At the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018. Now many investors believe that the Fed can implement a 4-time rate increase this year. So, according to the CME Group, investors estimate a 21% chance of 4 rate increases this year. Earlier this week, such a probability was estimated at 17%.
Nevertheless, the US dollar continues to scale down. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the basket of 6 other currencies, fell on Friday to 88.18, the lowest level since December 2014, and at the beginning of the European session is near the mark of 88.35.
Of the news for today, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of data on the housing market in the US for January, which may increase volatility in the US dollar. However, this statistic will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the US dollar.
The US dollar remains under pressure due to profound fundamental changes in the global financial market. Investors seem to opt for more interesting and growing financial markets outside of the US, which forces them to buy assets and the national currency of countries with a fast-growing economy, in particular the Eurozone and Japan.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7950, 0.7900, 0.7820, 0.7795, 0.7760, 0.7620, 0.7500, 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7990, 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8130, 0.8200

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7940. Stop-Loss 0.8000. Take-Profit 0.7900, 0.7820, 0.7795, 0.7760
Buy Stop 0.8000. Stop-Loss 0.7940. Take-Profit 0.8100, 0.8130, 0.8200



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XAU/USD: gold prospects are positive
19/02/2018
Current dynamics
After on Friday the price of gold updated the monthly maximum, having risen to the mark of 1361.00 dollars per troy ounce, then the price went to the corrective phase. The XAU / USD declined, retreating to the mark near the support level of 1348.00 (the opening price of the month). Last month, the price of gold reached the next local multi-month high near the mark of 1365.00 dollars per ounce. The last time near this mark the price was in July 2016.
Nevertheless, with regard to the further dynamics of the price of gold, there are two opposing opinions of experts. The first view is that, amid rising inflation, the Fed will begin to raise interest rates at a faster rate, which will increase the interest to the dollar purchases. Gold does not bring investment income and is used, mainly, as a hedging instrument for risks during the period of economic or political instability in the world. In periods of increasing interest rates, gold, as a rule, becomes cheaper, giving way to assets that generate revenue, such as government bonds. Due to the growth of inflation expectations, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds returned to almost 3%.
In this sense, the publication on Wednesday (19:00 GMT) of the minutes from the January meeting of the Fed, the latter under the leadership of Janet Yellen, will be of interest to investors this week. The minutes of the meeting may give market participants an idea that the Fed's management is thinking about the possible economic consequences of reforming the tax system and about accelerating inflation in the US.
The contrary opinion of experts is that, despite the expected increase in interest rates, gold still has good chances for growth as a means of protecting against the growth of consumer inflation.
Thus, the probability of further growth in gold prices outweighs the likelihood of their decline. Taking into account the multi-month cycles, the long-term targets for the growth of the gold price will be the levels of 1390.00, 1425.00 dollars per troy ounce.
In view of the fact that the US has a day off ("President's Day"), and American banks and exchanges are closed, the sluggish dynamics of trading on financial markets is expected until the end of the trading day.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1340.00, 1328.00, 1308.00, 1289.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1343.00. Stop-loss 1358.00. Take-Profit 1340.00, 1328.00
Buy Stop 1358.00. Stop-Loss 1343.00. Take-Profit 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

NZD/USD: Fundamental factors are on the side of US dollar sellers
20/02/2018
Current dynamics
The US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market after it reached new lows last week. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the basket of 6 other currencies, is growing for the third consecutive day. At the beginning of the European session, the futures on the DXY index traded with an increase near the mark of 89.50.
The growth of the dollar is also promoted by the growth of the yield of US Treasury bonds, which is close to the highs observed last week. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 2.92% on the eve of the first trading day in the US this week. On Monday, US markets were closed due to the day off (President's Day).
Meanwhile, the attitude to the dollar on the part of investors remains negative. Economists and financial companies lowered forecasts for US GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018. Significant growth of the country's budget deficit, coupled with the growth of the foreign trade deficit to $ 566 billion, the highest level since 2008, leads to a further decrease in investors' interest in the dollar.
The new US tax law, which provides for a significant reduction in taxes and an increase in budget spending, will only contribute to the growth of the federal budget deficit.
Despite the positive macro statistics coming from the US, deep fundamental factors are on the side of dollar sellers.
Meanwhile, the dollar receives short-term support on the eve of the publication on Wednesday (19:00 GMT) of the minutes from the January meeting of the Federal Reserve System.
Probably, investors will wait for new signals from the leadership of the Fed regarding further interest rate increases in the US. As you know, the Fed planned 3 rate increases in 2018 and 2 more increases in 2019.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the next dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of +5.9% (against previous values of +4.9%, +2.2% and +0.4%). If the prices for dairy products rise again, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD. The decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotations of the New Zealand dollar.
Nevertheless, this time the reaction of market participants to this publication will likely be restrained due to the continued celebration of the New Year in China, which is New Zealand's largest partner and buyer of dairy products from this country.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7340, 0.7300, 0.7270, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800
Resistance levels: 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7330. Stop-Loss 0.7380. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7270, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080
Buy Stop 0.7380. Stop-Loss 0.7330. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: before the release of the Fed's minutes
21/02/2018
Current dynamics
In anticipation of the publication (at 19:00 GMT) of the minutes from the Fed meeting held on January 30-31, the dollar remains stable and trades with a slight increase. In December, the Fed for the third time in 2017 increased the rate, bringing it to the current level of 1.5%. Fed leaders voted unanimously for this rate hike and showed a tendency to further tighten monetary policy in the next two years. During the January meeting, the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intention to raise the interest rate three times in 2018 and twice in 2019.
Market participants expect that the first rate increase may occur already during the March meeting of the Fed (March 20 - 21). Moreover, many investors (21%, according to the latest data from the CME Group) believe that the Fed will raise the rate four times in 2018 amid a steady growth in the US economy, the labor market and inflation. And now, investors are hoping to catch new signals from the Fed regarding further plans in the matter of monetary policy.
As usual, the national currency grows when the interest rate rises. So far, the growth of the dollar is not observed, since many investors remain negative towards him because of deep negative fundamental factors. Many economists believe that the dollar is only at the beginning of the multi-year cycle of the next decline. But everything can change if the Fed will systematically tighten monetary policy, and the positive macro data will come from the USA.
There is still no clear idea of how the macroeconomic situation in the US will change as the new tax and economic policies of the White House are implemented.
As for the pound, the positive macro statistics received during the current European session from the UK did not significantly affect its dynamics. Despite the fact that the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased in the fourth quarter of 2017 (by 0.1% to 4.4%), the overall employment rate has increased, and the number of unemployed has declined most strongly since the end of 2015. Wages also increased. Moreover, the growth of salaries in the UK has been the strongest since the end of 2016.
In January, inflation remained at 3.0%, which is 1 percentage point higher than the target level of the Bank of England. In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in a decade to contain inflation. Recently, central bank officials signaled that the rate may need to be raised earlier than originally expected. This is a strong factor in favor of strengthening the pound. At the same time, the pound will remain vulnerable against the euro and the dollar against the backdrop of Brexit.
Among other important news for today regarding the pair GBP / USD, it is worth highlighting
the speech (at 14:15 GMT) of the Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney during the hearing in the British Parliament of the Bank of England's report on inflation.
And at 14:45 there will be a block of important macro statistics from the United States. Among the published data - PMI in the leading sectors of the US economy (in the services sector and in the manufacturing sector) for February (preliminary release). The growth of indicators is expected, which will give an additional bullish impulse to the dollar.
With respect to the pair GBP / USD, we can say that, in general, positive dynamics remains. However, GBP / USD is in the zone of strong resistance levels 1.4185 (EMA50 on the monthly chart), 1.4050 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), from which it is possible, if not a turn, then a deep enough rebound.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3890, 1.3835, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3370, 1.3210
Resistance levels: 1.3990, 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4185, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575

Trading Scenarios
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 1.4010. Take-Profit 1.3890, 1.3835, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3370
Buy Stop 1.4010. Stop-Loss 1.3910. Take-Profit 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4185, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CAD: much depends on the dynamics of the US dollar
22/02/2018
Current dynamics
At the beginning of today's trading day, the dollar continued to rise after on Wednesday (19:00 GMT) the minutes from the January meeting of the Fed were published. From the text of the protocols, investors learned that the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intentions to support plans for further tightening of monetary policy in the US. At the December meeting, when the rate was raised for the third time in 2017, it became known about the Fed's intentions to raise the rate three times in 2018 and make two more increases in 2019.
During the January meeting, the US Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the key interest rate range of 1.25% -1.5% unchanged, but market participants expect that in March, when the first rate hike is expected to take place this year, the leaders of the Fed will add another increase in rates to the three planned.
And if this really happens, then the dollar will receive a strong support, despite the fact that there are a number of negative factors of a fundamental nature that cause investors to be wary of the dollar.
Among these negative factors - the growth of the federal budget deficit and the deficit of the foreign trade balance, which in December amounted to a record $ 566 billion, the highest level since 2008.
Meanwhile, at the beginning of the European trading session, the US dollar is once again declining.
To resume the growth of the dollar, additional signals from the Federal Reserve and macro statistics are needed. Important news from US is not expected until the end of the week, but it should pay attention to the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of such an important inflation and macro statistical indicator as the level of retail sales in Canada. According to the forecast, in December retail sales in Canada are expected to grow by 0.2% after growing by 0.2% in November. The index of retail sales is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence. At the same time, retail trade is one of the most important components in filling the country's budget and GDP growth. A weak or negative value of this indicator is a negative factor for the Canadian dollar. If the value of the indicator is worse than the forecast, the Canadian dollar will decrease, including in the pair USD / CAD. And, conversely, an indicator exceeding the forecast value will help strengthen the Canadian dollar.
Also worth paying attention to the speeches of a number of representatives of the Fed, scheduled for 15:00, 17:10, 20:30 (GMT), which may have a short-term effect on the dynamics of the US dollar, and may for a short time cause a rise in volatility in US dollar trading .
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2655, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2715, 1.2740, 1.2835, 1.2900

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2670. Stop-Loss 1.2720. Take-Profit 1.2655, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2170
Buy Stop 1.2720. Stop-Loss 1.2670. Take-Profit 1.2740, 1.2780, 1.2835, 1.2900




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

S&P500: markets continue to recover
26/02/2018
Current dynamics
Last week, the main US stock indexes completed in positive territory. The main increase of the indices in the previous week was due to strong growth on Friday. While indices are growing, investors are still in a state of confusion after the recent stock market crash observed earlier this month. Market participants are trying to understand - what is happening in the market: the markets resumed growth to new record highs or it is a temporary rebound before a new jerk down.
The recent collapse in the stock markets was triggered, mainly, by increased inflation in the US, which could lead to more active actions of the Fed in the matter of tightening monetary policy. Against the backdrop of stable economic growth in the US and because of increased inflation, the Fed will be forced to raise rates at a faster pace in order to avoid overheating of the economy.
And this is a strong negative factor for the stock markets, which usually grow against the backdrop of soft monetary policy and fall, if the rates have started to rise. Much also depends on the speed and scale of tightening monetary policy.
In this regard, it is worth recalling the words of the former head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, that only raising rates is not enough to break the bullish trend of the US stock market, and a gradual increase in the rate indicates the strength of the American economy.
Now market participants will wait for the first speech of the new head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, before the congress, which will be held on Tuesday (13:30 GMT). Investors want to hear from Powell, what is the probability that this year rates will be raised more than 3 times.
At the same time, many investors believe that during his first speech with a report on the results of the first half of the year, the new head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will point to a good form of the US economy, however, he will not say anything new about the tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed. It is likely that Powell will try to emphasize the need for a gradual increase in the rates of the Fed, avoiding any hint of the possibility of a faster rate hike.
If Powell only hints at the possibility of raising rates more than 3 times this year, then the reaction of the markets can follow immediately: the dollar will jump in price, and the stock indexes will again fall down.
Meanwhile, the S&P500 index is trading higher for the third day in a row, adding to the price from the opening of today's trading day.
After the strongest collapse in early February, from February 9 futures on the S&P500 steadily adds to the price, gradually restoring positions, and at the beginning of today's European session S&p500 is trading near the mark of 2760.0. The index finished in positive territory 8 of the last 11 sessions since February 9 began recovery after the fall. Over the past two weeks, the S & P500 has gained about 5.0%, which was the strongest two-week increase since February 2015.
The S & P500 grew almost fourfold from the 2009 low, and the yield of 10-year US government bonds in 2016 dropped to 1.336% from a level above 4% recorded in 2008. Now, another increase in the yield of 10-year US government bonds above 3% may provoke another decline of not only the S & P500 index, but the entire US stock market, followed by other global stock markets.
From the news for today, which can cause the growth of volatility in the financial markets, we are waiting for the speech (at 13:00 GMT) of the member of the FRS Committee on Open Markets, James Bullard and ECB President Mario Draghi (at 14:00 GMT).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2725.0, 2682.0, 2630.0, 2580.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2740.0. Stop-Loss 2688.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2614.0, 2565.0, 2530.0
Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 2740.0. Objectives 2780.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0




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XAU/USD: Positive dynamics, on the whole, persists
27/02/2018
Current dynamics
While market participants are waiting for the beginning of the speech of the new head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who speaks for the first time before the Congress, trading activity in the financial markets remains low. Nevertheless, in the first half of the European session, the dollar is gradually turning into an offensive.
During the December Fed meeting, when the interest rate was again raised, the leaders of the US central bank announced the need for 3 interest rate increases in 2018 and 2 increases in 2019 to avoid overheating of the economy. At the January meeting, the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intentions to support the previously planned plans to tighten monetary policy. Judging by the minutes published last week from the January meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve decided that the economy will grow at a faster pace.
The expected strong increase in budget spending in the US, as well as the stimulation of the economy by lowering taxes on the activities of US corporations against a background of low unemployment, will contribute to the growth of inflationary pressures. This, in turn, can force the Fed to accelerate the pace of normalizing monetary policy.
The first rate increase under the new chairman Jerome Powell this year is likely to happen already at the March meeting of the Fed, and now market participants expect that in March, the leaders of the Fed will add another rate hike to the three planned this year.
And it is precisely such signals that market participants will wait for today and tomorrow from Powell. From him, investors want to hear what the probability of a more rapid increase in interest rates.
If Powell signals to market participants that there is a high probability of 4 interest rate increases this year, then the dollar quotations will rise and another US stock market collapse may occur.
As a rule, with an increase in the interest rate, the quotes of the national currency are growing. So far, there is an opposite picture - the dollar is under pressure. The growth of the federal budget deficit, the growing deficit of the foreign trade balance, which reached an impressive amount of 566 billion dollars in December, the highest level since 2008, causes a negative attitude of investors towards the dollar.
Neither the Fed's efforts to tighten monetary policy, nor verbal intervention by representatives of the Federal Reserve and the White House on the desirability of a strong dollar, do not yet cause a response from buyers of the dollar.
So yesterday's statement by the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin that "in the long term the United States needs a strong dollar" did not affect the dynamics of the dollar.
Now all the attention of investors today and tomorrow will be focused on the speech of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell. On how tough his speeches will be, the dynamics of the dollar for the near future will depend.
During periods of increasing interest rates, gold usually becomes cheaper, giving way to assets that generate revenue, such as government bonds.
Meanwhile, the price of gold keeps positive dynamics. Many economists believe that, despite the expected increase in interest rates, gold still has good chances for growth as a means of protecting against the growth of consumer inflation.
The likelihood of further growth in gold prices outweighs the likelihood of their decline. The long-term targets for the growth of the gold price will be the mark of 1390.00, 1425.00 dollars per troy ounce. However, these goals can be set only after the price of gold overcomes the mark of $ 1365.00 per troy ounce (the maximum of this year).
Recall that the speech of Jerome Powell will start today at 13:30 (GMT).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1332.00, 1329.00, 1308.00, 1290.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1341.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1328.00. Stop-Loss 1342.00. Take-Profit 1308.00, 1290.00
Buy Stop 1342.00. Stop-loss 1328.00. Take-Profit 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

EUR/USD: The euro is under pressure before the weekend
28/02/2018
Current dynamics
As reported on Wednesday (10:00 GMT) by the European Statistical Agency (Eurostat), consumer prices in the Eurozone in February rose by 1.2% (in annual terms). The data suggest that inflation growth rates were the weakest since December 2016 and well below the ECB target level (just below 2%). In February, the rate of inflation slowed for the third month in a row. This index is a key indicator for the ECB in assessing inflation. The current value of the index indicates that the leaders of the ECB will continue to be cautious when considering the issue of reducing the stimulation of the European economy.
As ECB President Mario Draghi said on Monday, it is too early to talk about curtailing the quantitative easing program, since inflation is still far from the target level.
At the same time, the Eurozone economy continues to grow at a good pace (it is expected that GDP growth in 2017 was 2.5%). In 2017, the economy of the Eurozone grew at the fastest pace over the past 10 years, and, apparently, will keep momentum this year.
Mario Draghi again stressed that the ECB will continue its course on monetary policy without any changes. At a recent meeting of the ECB in 2017, it was decided that the program for the purchase of European assets will continue, at least until September 2018. At the same time, ECB interest rates will remain at the same low level for a long time after the end of the QE program.
Meanwhile, optimistic statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the US economy, made by him on Tuesday, supported the dollar. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the basket of 6 other currencies, reached the highest level since early February, rising to around 90.40, completely closing the decline for the last two weeks.
Jerome Powell drew attention to improving economic prospects, which was considered by investors as an indication that this year the central bank can raise interest rates 4 times. Investors have corrected the forecasts for interest rates. According to CME, the probability of 4 rate increases this year is estimated at 34%. On Monday, this probability was 24%, and a month ago - 23%.
The EUR / USD fell 350 points from the peaks in February to a minimum in seven weeks near the 1.2200 mark.
The euro remains under pressure also because of investors' preoccupation before the elections in Italy and voting in the Social Democratic Party of Germany on the establishment of the ruling coalition this weekend.
Today, market participants will closely monitor the macro data that will be published today in the US (13:30 GMT).
Among the published data - annual GDP (for the 4th quarter), the index of expenditure on personal consumption and the price index of personal consumption expenditure. The growth of indicators is expected. Thus, GDP in Q4 is expected to grow by 2.5%, and for the entire 2017 GDP growth was also + 2.5%, which is higher than the average of 2% observed in the early 2000s.
When confirming the data, the dollar is likely to continue to strengthen, including in the EUR / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
After in the middle of this month the EUR / USD has reached the next multi-month maximum near the mark of 1.2555, the last two weeks there has been a decline in EUR / USD.
As a result of yesterday's decline against the background of the strengthening of the dollar after the statements of Jerome Powell, EUR / USD broke through the support level 1.2280 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and at the beginning of today's European session is trading near support level 1.2200 (low in February, lower mid-January consolidation zone, EMA50 on day chart and the Fibonacci level 50% of correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014).
This is a strong level of support, the breakdown of which will significantly worsen prospects for the bullish trend EUR / USD.
Long-term upward dynamics persists as long as EUR / USD is trading above the key support levels 1.1790 (Fibonacci 38.2% and EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
The signal for the resumption of purchases will be a return to the zone above the resistance level 1.2280. In this case, EUR / USD will again move towards the recent highs near the level of 1.2555.
Support levels: 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1920, 1.1790, 1.1700
Resistance levels: 1.2280, 1.2330, 1.2340, 1.2400, 1.2535, 1.2555, 1.2600

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2180. Stop-Loss 1.2220. Take-Profit 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1920, 1.1790, 1.1700
Buy Stop 1.2220. Stop-Loss 1.2180. Take-Profit 1.2285, 1.2330, 1.2340, 1.2400, 1.2535, 1.2555, 1.2600



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: pound remains vulnerable
01/03/2018
Current dynamics
The pound on Thursday slightly strengthened after the publication (at 09:30 GMT) of data on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the number of approved mortgage loans in the UK in January. As shown by the data provided by the Bank of England, the number of approved mortgage loans in the UK in January reached a six-month high after a fall in December (67,478 versus 61,692 in December). The January figure was the highest since July 2017 and significantly exceeded the average for six months.
The index of business activity of purchasing managers (PMI) in the manufacturing sector for February was 55.2 versus 55.3 in January (the forecast was 50.0).
The pound received little support after the publication of the data, but, economists believe, for a short while. On Wednesday, the pound declined significantly in the foreign exchange market after some details of the draft agreement on the exit of the UK from the EU became known, according to which, in particular, the creation of a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK is envisaged.
Thus, the dynamics of the pound in the coming months will strongly depend on news about Brexit. Although the collapse of the British economy after the referendum on Brexit in June 2016 did not happen, however, the pound fell sharply, which contributed to a significant acceleration of inflation in the UK. In this regard, the income of the British and their purchasing power declined, which affected domestic trade and retail sales. Since, the British economy is focused, first of all, on the domestic market; the decrease in domestic trade has a negative impact on the country's GDP.
In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in a decade to contain inflation. Recently, central bank officials signaled that the rate may need to be raised earlier than originally expected. This is a strong factor in favor of strengthening the pound. At the same time, the pound will remain vulnerable against the euro and the dollar against the backdrop of Brexit.
The dollar, on the other hand, receives strong support both from the growing expectations for a faster rate of tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed, as well as from strong macro data coming from the US recently.
Today, the focus of traders will be the publication of a block of important macro data on the US (from 13:30 to 15:00 GMT), as well as the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank Jerome Powell in the banking committee of the Senate (at 15:00 GMT). If he more specifically signals about the high probability of 4 interest rate increases this year, the dollar will receive an additional impetus for growth, including in the GBP / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3725, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3390, 1.3210
Resistance levels: 1.3890, 1.3970, 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4185, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575

Trading Scenarios
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 1.3810. Take-Profit 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3390, 1.3210
Buy Stop 1.3810. Stop-Loss 1.3690. Take-Profit 1.3890, 1.3970, 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4185, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575




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