Tifia Daily Market Analytics

GBP/USD: until December 12, the pound will remain under pressure
11/27/2018
Current Dynamics
Despite the fact that last weekend the EU summit approved an agreement between the UK and the EU on Brexit, the pound remains under pressure, and the GBP / USD pair has been falling for the third consecutive day.
Teresa May managed to persuade EU representatives to conclude a deal on Brexit according to her plan, which provides for a transition period from March 2019 to December 2020 and can then be extended until December 2022.
Nevertheless, numerous representatives of the Conservative Party, as well as some representatives of the opposition, have subjected the draft agreement to harsh criticism. At the weekend, the media reported that 93 members of the Conservative Party of Parliament oppose the Brexit plan agreed by the UK and the EU.
Statements by US President Donald Trump that an agreement on a Brexit deal could be a threat to a trade agreement between the US and the UK only aggravate the situation.
Voting on a deal with the EU in the House of Commons of the British Parliament is scheduled for December 12.
Many experts say that if the parliament refuses to approve the agreement, GBP / USD will fall to the range of 1.2000 - 1.2500, and if the lawmakers support the deal, it will quickly grow to 1.3500 - 1.4000.
It is likely that trading on the pound until December 12 will be volatile and dependent on any news on the Brexit deal. In general, investors will avoid making large bets on pound trading before this date.
At the same time, the US dollar returned previously lost positions after the US president called it “highly probable” an increase in trade duties on goods from China. President Donald Trump, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, once again announced his intention to introduce next year a 25% duty on goods from China in the amount of $ 200 billion in the event of an unfavorable outcome of negotiations with the PRC. Trump also said that he will impose duties on all imports from China, which is not yet subject to taxation.
The DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, has been rising for the third day in a row. Futures on the dollar index DXY to the beginning of the American session is trading near the mark of 97.10, 16 points higher than the opening price of the trading day on Tuesday.
Most of the Fed leaders in September planned another rate increase before the end of the year, which, according to expectations, should occur at the meeting December 18-19. For 2019, several more Fed rate hikes are planned.
On Thursday (19:00 GMT), a protocol from the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Operations Committee (FOMC Minutes) will be published. The harsh rhetoric of Fed officials regarding the prospects for monetary policy will push the dollar to further growth.
A day earlier, namely on Wednesday (17:00 GMT), Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech. Two weeks ago, Powell announced the “good shape” of the American economy.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
GBP / USD continues to trade in a descending channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which passes near the support level of 1.2600 (lows of June 2017). In case of a breakdown of the nearest support level of 1.2700 (October lows), the GBP / USD will head towards the support level of 1.2600.
The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3170 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
Short positions are preferred. Until December 12, when the UK parliament will vote on the terms of the Brexit deal, the pound will remain under pressure.
Support Levels: 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2838, 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3170, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2840. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2840. Stop Loss 1.2760. Take-Profit 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3170, 1.3210, 1.3300




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CHF: Support and Resistance Levels
30/11/2018
USD / CHF continues to grow in the ascending channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes above the resistance level of 1.0130 (2016 highs and Fibonacci level 100% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and from 1.0300). On Friday, USD / CHF continues to grow, trading above the support level of 0.9945 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
USD / CHF maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above the key support level of 0.9855 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Breakdown of the support level of 0.9945 may trigger a correction to the support level of 0.9855.
However, long positions are preferred. Purchases look safe above 0.9945 support level.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 0.9945, 0.9875, 0.9855, 0.9745
Resistance Levels: 1.0000, 1.0040, 1.0090, 1.0100, 1.0300, 1.0130

Trading Scenarios
Buy in the market. Stop Loss 0.9935. Take-Profit 1.0000, 1.0040, 1.0090, 1.0100, 1.0300, 1.0130
Sell Stop 0.9935. Stop Loss 0.9980. Take-Profit 0.9875, 0.9855, 0.9745


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

AUD/USD: Support and resistance levels
03/12/2018
Since the beginning of last month, AUD / USD has been developing an upward trend. Correctional growth allowed AUD / USD to rise to the key resistance level of 0.7380 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), breaking through the strong resistance level of 0.7320 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart) on Monday with news of the suspension of the US-China trade conflict.
However, further growth of AUD / USD is unlikely, and a positive impulse can quickly disappear. If an agreement is not reached in 90 days, the United States will raise duties on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion from 10% to 25%, and the trade conflict between the countries will enter a new round of escalation.
The most likely - the resumption of declining of the AUD / USD. In this case, the AUD / USD pair is at profitable levels in order to open short positions. Rebounding from the resistance level of 0.7380 and returning to the zone below the support level of 0.7320 will mean the resumption of the long-term bearish trend that began in August 2011. Breakdown of the support level of 0.7320 will resume the decline of AUD / USD with long-term goals at support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (2016 lows). Short positions are preferred.
An alternative scenario assumes continued growth with the maximum goal at the resistance level of 0.7460 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline in the pair since July 2017 and the level of 0.9500. The minimum of this wave is near the level of 0.6830).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 0.7320, 0.7230, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7075, 0.7045, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Resistance Levels: 0.7380, 0.7460, 0.7770, 0.7850

Trading scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7410. Take-Profit 0.7320, 0.7230, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7075, 0.7045, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7410. Stop Loss 0.7310. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7500



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

GBP/USD: the pound strengthened on Tuesday
12/04/2018
Current Dynamics
The European Court’s decision on the possibility of the UK abandoning Brexit, as well as the publication of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the UK construction sector, had a positive effect on the pound. In November, the PMI index for the UK construction sector rose to 53.4 from 53.2 in October after a decline in activity over the previous 8 months. IHS Markit also reported that in November, the construction sector showed a generally strong growth, and the pace of job creation in it accelerated to a maximum since December 2015.
On Tuesday, the British Parliament will begin a 5-day discussion of the two documents that make up the Brexit agreement and formulate a way out of the UK from the EU and the future relationship between the UK and the bloc.
According to the Brexit deal, the UK is granted a transition period from March 2019 to December 2020, which can then be extended until December 2022.
Nevertheless, numerous representatives of the Conservative Party, as well as some representatives of the opposition, subjected the draft agreement to harsh criticism. Many members of the Conservative Party of Parliament oppose the Brexit plan agreed by the UK and the EU.
Voting on a deal with the EU in the House of Commons of the British Parliament is scheduled for December 12.
Many experts say that if the parliament refuses to approve the agreement, GBP / USD will fall into the range of 1.2000 - 1.2500, and if the lawmakers support the deal, it will quickly grow to 1.3500 - 1.4000.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
Positive news supported the pound on Tuesday, allowing the GBP / USD pair to rise to 1.2840 at the beginning of the European session.
Nevertheless, the further strengthening of the pound and the growth of the GBP / USD is unlikely. Until December 12, investors will avoid major deals on the pound.
There are risks that in case of the parliament’s refusal to approve the Brexit agreement, the GBP / USD pair will fall into the range of 1.2000 - 1.2500.
The signal for the development of this scenario will be the breakdown of the local support level of 1.2700 (August and October lows).
The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3140 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2885, 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3140, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2890. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2890. Stop Loss 1.2780. Take-Profit 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3140, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3500, 1.3600, 1.3760



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CAD: Support and Resistance Levels
06/12/2018
Last Wednesday, the Bank of Canada left its key interest rate unchanged, at 1.75%. In a statement explaining the decision to leave interest rates unchanged, a much more cautious tone is used than in previous statements. On Thursday (13:50 GMT) Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will deliver a speech. The soft rhetoric of Stephen Poloz regarding the bank’s monetary policy will further weaken the Canadian dollar.
USD / CAD maintains a positive trend, trading in the ascending channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is above the resistance level of 1.3600. Above the key support level of 1.3025 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) a bullish trend remains.
In case of breakdown of the resistance level 1.3450 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700).
The growth targets will be the resistance levels of 1.3600, 1.3790 (2017 highs). Long positions are preferred.
Only a breakdown of support levels 1.2740 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), 1.2700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will cancel the bull trend.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3285, 1.3225, 1.3195, 1.3025, 1.2900, 1.2800, 1.2740, 1.2700
Resistance Levels: 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3790

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3370. Stop-Loss 1.3460. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3285, 1.3225, 1.3195, 1.3025
Buy Stop 1.3460. Stop-Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3600, 1.3790




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

XAU/USD: Market expectations
12/07/2018
Against the background of monetary tightening by the Fed since April, gold prices have been in a steady downward trend. In mid-August, the XAU / USD pair reached an annual minimum near the mark of 1160.00, however, then an upward correction began, raising the price of gold to the mark of 1244.00 dollars per troy ounce. Nevertheless, the overall gold trend remains bearish, and the upward correction may end near the reached resistance levels of 1242.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the decline wave from July 2016), if the Fed will give clear signals to further tighten its monetary policy.
The breakdown of the support level of 1233.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart) will be the beginning of the return of XAU / USD to the bearish trend.
The soft rhetoric of statements by Fed officials could provoke a breakdown of the achieved resistance levels and a further growth of the XAU / USD towards resistance levels of 1260.00 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart and the upper limit of the upward channel on the daily chart), 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).
We remind you that the publication of key data for the Fed from the US labor market is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT). Predicting the market response to the publication of indicators is often difficult. In any case, when these indicators are published, a surge in volatility is expected in trading not only for USD, but also for the entire financial market. Probably the most cautious investors would prefer to stay out of the market during this time period.
Support Levels: 1233.00, 1220.00, 1212.00, 1204.00, 1198.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Resistance Levels: 1242.00, 1248.00, 1260.00, 1277.00
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 1232.00. Stop Loss 1245.00. Take-Profit 1220.00, 1212.00, 1204.00, 1198.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1245.00. Stop Loss 1232.00. Take-Profit 1248.00, 1260.00, 1277.00




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

USD/CHF: on the eve of the meeting of the National Bank of Switzerland
Current dynamics
12/12/2018
On Thursday, a regular meeting of the Swiss National Bank will be held on monetary policy issues. The decision on rates will be published at 08:30 (GMT).
Earlier in late September, the National Bank of Switzerland kept its negative interest rates unchanged: the deposit rate was at the level of -0.75%, the range for the 3-month LIBOR rate was between -1.25% and -0.25%. “The bank still considers a negative interest rate necessary and is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if the situation requires it”, the NBS said. According to the management of the NBS, the cost of the Swiss franc is still high. It is likely that rates will remain unchanged for much of the next year, while weaker economic data has come from Switzerland. Thus, GDP in the 3rd quarter decreased by -0.2% instead of the expected growth of + 0.4% and against growth of + 0.7% in the 2nd quarter. Other macro data also indicate a slowdown in the economy.
At 09:00 (GMT) the press conference of the NBS will start. The harsh rhetoric of the speech by the head of the NBS Thomas Jordan, will help strengthen the franc. The soft tone of the speech and the tendency to continue the extra soft monetary policy of the NBS will negatively affect the franc.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
The USD / CHF pair is trading at the beginning of the American session on Wednesday, near the strong short-term resistance level of 0.9960 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Breakdown of this level will strengthen the upward trend prevailing above key support levels of 0.9875 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave from December 2016 and from 1.0300), 0.9860 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
As long as USD / CHF is above these key support levels, a long-term uptrend persists and long positions are preferred.
An alternative decline scenario may develop after the breakdown of the support level of 0.9860 with the immediate goal at the support level of 0.9745 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level of 50%).
Support levels: 0.9935, 0.9915, 0.9875, 0.9860, 0.9745
Resistance Levels: 0.9960, 1.0010, 1.0060, 1.0110

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 0.9970. Stop Loss 0.9930. Take-Profit 1.0010, 1.0060, 1.0110
Sell Stop 0.9930. Stop Loss 0.9970. Take-Profit 0.9915, 0.9875, 0.9860, 0.9745, 0.9610, 0.9575


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

EUR/USD: Market Expectations
12/13/2018
On Thursday, the focus of attention of participants in the financial market will be the ECB meeting. The bank is expected to leave rates at current levels at least until the end of the summer of 2019. It is also likely that the ECB will confirm the completion of the asset purchase program at the end of December.
The ECB rate decision will be published at 12:45 (GMT), and the ECB press conference will begin at 13:30. If Mario Draghi makes unexpected announcements, then the volatility in euro trading and the financial market will increase significantly. The harsh rhetoric of Mario Draghi on monetary policy prospects will strengthen the euro. Conversely, the soft tone of the ECB statement and the speech of Mario Draghi will have a downward pressure on the euro.
Meanwhile, the euro will remain under pressure against the dollar, which is supported by demand from investors amid expectations of further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.
While EUR / USD is trading below the key resistance level of 1.1610 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), short positions are preferable. The likelihood of further decline in EUR / USD remains. After the breakdown of the support level of 1.1362 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) EUR / USD will go to support levels of 1.1310 (December lows), 1.1290 (Fibonacci level of the 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1210 (November and year lows).
After EUR / USD rises to the zone above the resistance level of 1.1410 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), further corrective growth is possible to the resistance level of 1.1610.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 1.1362, 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1385, 1.1410, 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1350. Stop-Loss 1.1420. Take-Profit 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1420. Stop-Loss 1.1350. Take-Profit 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

EUR/USD: Eurodollar remains under pressure
Current dynamics
14/12/2018
The Eurodollar remains under pressure after the ECB meeting on Thursday.
His head, Mario Draghi, pointed to the risks of the Eurozone economy, which are shifting towards the deterioration of the situation. The ECB confirmed that it will complete the QE program in December. Interest rates will remain unchanged until the summer of 2019.
The euro remains under pressure from the worsening domestic political situation in France, the reluctance of the Italian government to more strongly curtail the planned budget deficit, as required by the European Commission, as well as Brexit and uncertainty due to the forthcoming elections to the European Parliament in May.
On Friday, the decline of the EUR / USD pair continued after the publication of disappointing macro data from the Eurozone. The EUR / USD pair fell from the opening of the trading day by 0.6% and at the beginning of the American session is trading near the 1.1286 mark, trying to break through the important support level of 1.1290 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014) .
Below the key resistance level of 1.1610 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail. Short positions with targets at support levels of 1.1210 (November and year lows), 1.1000 (bottom line of the downward channel on the daily chart) are still preferred.
The signal for the resumption of long positions will be the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1400 (ЕМА50 and the upper line of the downward channel on the daily chart) with the target at the resistance level of 1.1610.

Support Levels: 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1310, 1.1360, 1.1385, 1.1400, 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790

Trading recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1410. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1410. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790

GBP/USD: Support and Resistance Levels
17/12/2018
After another sharp fall in mid-April since early May, GBP / USD continues to trade in a downward channel on a weekly chart, the lower limit of which passes near the support level of 1.1700. In the event of a breakdown of the nearest support level of 1.2600 (lows of June 2017), GBP / USD will head towards the support level of 1.2485 (minimums of the year). The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3215 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3095 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.
The signal for growth will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.2642 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the 4-hour chart). The immediate goal of growth is resistance levels of 1.2780 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.2820 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
With favorable developments, corrective growth of GBP / USD may continue to resistance levels 1.3095 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.3215.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2780, 1.2820, 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3095, 1.3215

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2650. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2680. Stop Loss 1.2580. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2780, 1.2820, 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3095, 1.3215



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com