Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: April 30, 2019

Trading of the euro major pair began close to 0.1184 and find it quite difficult to rise higher. During the Asian session, the pair crossed by more than 90 pips, which looks good for the traders.

However, the fundamental data was not enough to support the pair which then weakened the dollar. Meanwhile, the US GDP and Durable Goods Orders supported the increase of the greenback. The upcoming interest decision of the Fed is important to be monitored.

The week ended with the euro major pair being the top concern after the improved European government bond yields. Meanwhile, the topic on UK’s Brexit remains uncertain along with the Sino-US trade deal, which is not surprising for the market at the present condition.

For today, various data from eurozone including German March Consumer Confidence Survey Index, the KOF Swiss April Leading Indicator, German March Consumer Confidence Survey Index, updated German April Unemployment Change, GDP numbers from EMU (QoQ), German April HICP (YoY) are expected. On the other hand, February S&P/ Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY), Chicago April PMI and US March (both MoM & YoY) Pending Home Sales are scheduled to be released as well.

On the technical outlook, the euro major pair is on its way to recovery. The pair moves close to the upper area of the Bollinger Bands, indicating upward signals. The important 200-days SMA recently crossed the 50-days SMA and moved below it. Yet, all the major SMA have bullish legs. As for the RSI, it stayed around the overbought area.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 16, 2019

The euro major pair continues to be subdued during the Thursday session as it stays close to 1.1210 despite the Eurogroup meeting on the eve. It shows that the pair seems to have no direction prior to the ECB official speech.

The pair shows a good rally from 1.1183 to 1.1225 previously. The uptrend occurred when Trump announced the possibility of a delay the import tariffs on autos for six months. This supports the European automobile industry and raises the pair.

The reports imply that the US president is hesitant to further move on trade disputes. Trump already had a hard time with the US-China trade war and prefers to avoid any simultaneous trade obstacles with other partners. Hence, a strong trade dispute between the EU and the US seems to cool off at least on the short-term.

Although, the EUR/USD pair cannot have large movement despite increasing Italy-German bond yields. Yesterday, yields rose by 140 bp, which was the highest figure since December. The rise in bond yields happened in the background of Italian Deputy PM rhetorics, saying that the peak should be adjusted to 140% of GDP.

Meanwhile, the retail sales figures cause the dropped of the dollar gains yesterday and the US dollar index trades close to 97.5.

Following data are to be released today in the US: Housing in April (MoM), Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims from period May 10 and Continuing Jobless Claims from May 3.

In the technical perspective, the price shows to be trading below the 50- and 100-SMA, indicating a bearish trend for the day. The top resistance remains at 1.1263 and the support close to 1.1178. Of the pair rises in the future, the next target resistance will likely be around 1.1323. The pair being above the Bollinger band may mean an increase and could develop into a bullish trend from the traders. The RSI was found close to the 55th figure, which confirms active purchases of the pair.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 17, 2019

In the beginning of today’s trading session, the euro major pair has shown less or no volatility. The euro major pair moves close to 1.1170/80 levels but there is no certain direction and moves around the weekly low levels.

The positive associated with the delay in US car import tariffs had a transient effect on the pair. Meanwhile, the weak fundamental report pushed the pair to low levels.

The future for the greenback looks optimistic while the index was able to recover the losses during the week. Various data on US Housing data, Unemployment figures, and Manufacturing Survey reports pushed the pair to reach high levels of 97.88. On the other hand, the Eurozone April CPI figures and US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index line may affect the future movements of the pair.

The CPI data from the eurozone is anticipated to be released with a forecast of a decrease by 0.3% on MoM. On the other hand, the data on Consumer Sentiments Index in May, which is presumed to rise close to 97.5%. There will also be speeches from Fed officials today.

On the 4-hour chart, the price will likely be lower than 50-, 100- and 200-SMA and moves in a bearish tone. Yet, the 50-SMA being above the 100-SMA may mean a chance for a bullish sentiment. The RSI was found around 40th figure that gives moderate purchases of the pair.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 20, 2019

In today’s trading session, the euro major pair started the day close to 1.1161, hovering close the Friday low of 1.1153.

After the release of the eurozone’s April CPI data, the pair remained quiet and met market expectations. The monthly construction data came out higher than with 6.3% figure compared to the estimate of 1.8%. However, the data optimistic figure of the US Michigan Index limited that chances for the rally of the euro major pair.

The tension of over Italy regarding the EU Fiscal rules has managed the worries of investors amid the rising debt levels of the Italian deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini. He announced the possibility of adjusting higher the debt ceiling to 140% of the GDP, justified that the fiscal policies should adjust over time. There are still other headlines that show less-impact to the movement of the pair.

Today, there will be an important speech from Fed chief Powell. He is expected to give some insights on the economic interests rates in the global trend, which may have an effect on the US Dollar index.

On the 1-hour chart, the price was seen to have stayed lower than the SMA and below both the 100- and 200-SMA, indicating a short-term bullish momentum. The central line of the Bollinger band stayed higher than the pair that could mean a bearish tone.

As for the lower boundary of the Bollinger bands, it was found close to the 1.1151 as the pair drop to the lower area of the Bollinger bands that could also give a bearish sentiment from traders. The RSI moves around 32nd figure with a notion of heavy selling.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 21, 2019

The euro major pair had a better trading than yesterday, which means that there is a chance for a recovery of the pair. Despite the rally of the US dollar, the EUR/USD pair dropped by 0.19%. There was some fresh bids on the USD index prior to the positive data from the US.

The US-Sino trade talks influenced the overall tone of the dollar traders to decrease. Just recently, some companies such as Huawei, Chinese Giant Telecommunication Equipment Company were blacklisted in the US, which then affected the Chinese business. After the news, Huawei clients had retreated, as well as, another chipset manufacturer from Europe. Meanwhile, updates for Android was suspended by Google.

Investors are concerned with the backlash of China against the action of the US. At the same time, this adds pressure over dollar with the continuous uncertainty from trade talks. The EUR/USD pair gained advantage on the weakened dollar.

For today, there is no major events from Europe today except for the Consumer Confidence Index for the month of May from the European Commission. The market perceives the pair to remain a bit bullish at the present condition.

The dollar has already increased prior to the Housing data from the US with a rising forecast. Yet, the increase in the USD index gives a downward pressure to the pair.

The pair has established a downward movement towards the lower boundary of the Bollinger bands. The RSI showed a trend similar to the pair with the range between 35 and 40 levels. It may mean a low momentum and weak interest from investors. At the same time, it seems that there is a low volatility to the pair given the shorter gap between bands of the pair. Resistance levels are expected around 1.1175, 1.1185, and 1.1225 and support close to 1.1136 and 1.1111 levels.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 22, 2019

In the beginning, the euro major pair shows a high chance of recovery. Although the pair attempted for a breakout, it failed to surpass the resistance level of 1.1164. Moving forward, the pair stayed close to the level of 1.1155, showing an opposite downward curve.

On the eve, the pair rose by 0.13% soon after the release of May’s agreement. Nonetheless, the pair could not settle gains and return to the lower level.

With the continued uncertainty for the US-Sino trade war that seems to be moving wrongly. As well, as the damages incurred with the issue with Huawei. This adds pressure to the whole global economy.

Any unexpected result may bring in volatility to the pair while the market presently had high hopes to Brexit, which then plunge the pair downward.

The Fed chief has a scheduled speech for today to discuss the matter of interest rates and other economic concerns. Previously, Draghi said that there is a possibility to keep the interest rates unchanged. The FOMC minutes of the meeting is the focus for today, which will likely have a high impact on the US dollar index.

The trend of the EUR/USD pair seems to be having a bearish tone with the price below the baseline of the Ichimoku clouds on the trend. The further it goes down, the more that it will likely sell. The RSI showed the pair’s movement staying between 50th and 40th figure. It signifies moderate buying and slight interest of investors. The price of the pair was initially at 1.1160 and then declined to 1.1153. In case of a further decline, the pair may find support at 1.1142 and oppositely, it will likely go up until the resistance of 1.1188.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 23, 2019

The euro major pair declined on Thursday morning from 1.1155, aiming for a breakdown at the support level of 1.1149. Today, there will be the EU Parliamentary Elections which may greatly affect the pair and further be pressured.

On the other hand, the Brexit is presumed to take place prior to the elections. Nonetheless, PM Theresa May could not finish the Brexit matter. France was allocated with a spot to the Union but the UK is still participating and everything has to have their own places.

On the other hand, the US dollar surpasses the level of 98.12 which as more pressure to the EUR/USD pair with the USD index. The FOMC minutes of the meeting was released last night and it was unexpected for them to keep the rates the same. At the same time, the minutes have mentioned that the current economic situation is less likely to have a big impact on the currencies.

For the Fundamental reports, data on Manufacturing PMI for Germany and the Eurozone are scheduled to be released today. These have to be monitored as it may greatly affect the pair. Moreover, German GDP, Services & the Composite PMI, German Expectations from IFO, the Business Climate, and the Current Assessment are expected as well.

On the US side, reports on Continuing and Initial Jobless claims figures, Markit PMI for the Services, Manufacturing and the Composite of both sectors are anticipated by everyone. Aside from that, we have the New Home Sales and the Sales Change report to monitor as well.

Traders should be mindful of the initial buying on the start of the European trading session as the candle closes on the hourly chart. The resistance above 1.1150 gives a stronger resistance, which was tested for support several times in the previous week. In case that the pair resumed a breakout, sellers may see mix strategies close to the resistance around 1.1170. There seems to be a horizontal level that limits aside from the upper line from the descending channel which restricts the price movement in mid-May. Overall, seeing a marginal breakdown close to the early May low at 1.1135 had encountered some puny stops from weak traders. It could further go down to 1.1109 in case of a continuous descent. Meanwhile, bears’ attention is on the support of 1.1135 towards 1.0975 to 1.10.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 24, 2019

The euro meets pressure again during the Thursday session with the looming from the markets again. Presently, we cannot be certain on what pushed this trend to occur but we can just base it on the common reasons. One of which is a trade war between the US and China. Directly stating the situation, it seems there is more from what is happening. Hence, the present market reflects the standing of the US dollar.

If we look at the price, significant support is found at 1.11, which will likely be tested during the trading session. If the price breaks lower than the daily close, it will pave its way towards the level of 1.10. However, this pair will not exactly be an easy run. Although, I’d say that it won’t be long before the buyers return in the market. Furthermore, we should also focus our attention on how the daily candle forms. If it bounces from here, the next probable target level will be 1.1150. Needless to say, this pair isn’t exactly best to trade at the moment. It is quite tight, which is usual but that makes it the latter option in gaining profit. Scalpers are primarily the ones who will gain an advantage of this and the level of 1.11 is a good level to start off as it may offer a slight jump.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 27, 2019

The euro major pair moves close to 1.1211 on Monday morning. It looks like the pair resumes the upward trend since Friday. With ongoing European parliamentary elections and declining US dollar index, the pair was able to recover. The price opened close to 1.1203 and reach a new high at 1.1214.

Results for the election were released on Sunday, showing the Brexit gained the majority of the votes. The head of the winning party said that they consider handling Brexit in a new parliament. Although, there is a chance for a no-deal Brexit.

The US dollar pairs stronger against six major currency pairs at 95.78 during the Asian session. The US-China trade tension continues to influence the US dollar as it drops lower. It attempted to reach a fresh new high in the morning after a slight decline for the greenback today.

Today, the US will celebrate the ‘Memorial day’, hence, the US market will be closed today while there are no anticipated events from the eurozone. Meanwhile, traders will keep on monitoring the results of post-election and for any significant news regarding the US-China trade deal.

The technical level shows the reversal in the middle trading of morning hours. The indicator lines appeared close to the upper Bollinger bands moved downwards instead. It also crossed the middle line of the Bollinger bands or around the EMA close to 1.1204, which put an end to the small rally on May 23. After the pair have risen to 60 levels in the past trading session, the RSI is moving close to 50 levels. Yet, the trend stays active and trades above the important SMA. Hence, the 50-SMA crossed the 200-SMA and collide with the pair. We can expect a bearish tone in the short-term if it reaches above the 50-SMA.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 29, 2019

There is a high probability for the EUR/USD pair to trade range-bound for this week but will less likely reach a new yearly low.

The reason behind is that there is a minor report expected on the economic calendar this week. The ECB will have its meeting next week and the recent data on employment figure is anticipated to be released as well. These two events will kickstart the momentum needed to maintain descent.

Data released didn’t have a big impact on the trading rates despite the less-than-expectations result on preliminary CPI. On the other hand, the quarterly GDP has increased. The consumer spending grew at a faster pace this April than expected.

The pair seems to have maintained the closing the candle at 1.11350 on the 4-hour chart, which sets a rally to the peak in the early part of the month.

The recent support is important and uncertain while the pair should not proceed lower in order for it to reach higher levels.

Meanwhile, on the hourly chart, there is an intersection with the support level of 1.1150 to the lower part of the channel.

Although the pair grew higher at the beginning of the North American session, the upper resistance at 1.1170 is less likely important. The pair has already offered twice as resistance since its breakthrough. There is also some confluence with the 200-MA close to it and the chance for a higher level is not too far.

Thus, there is a possibility for the price to bounce higher although, we can expect the trend for short-term to decline. Sellers can push for a rally around 1.1170. However, in the case of decline lower than the support level, it is better to be careful in lowering the price without enough momentum.