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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

This is a discussion on Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; EUR/USD Daily Analysis: April 30, 2019 Trading of the euro major pair began close to 0.1184 and find it quite ...

          
   
  1. #571
    Junior Member KostiaForexMart's Avatar
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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: April 30, 2019

    Trading of the euro major pair began close to 0.1184 and find it quite difficult to rise higher. During the Asian session, the pair crossed by more than 90 pips, which looks good for the traders.

    However, the fundamental data was not enough to support the pair which then weakened the dollar. Meanwhile, the US GDP and Durable Goods Orders supported the increase of the greenback. The upcoming interest decision of the Fed is important to be monitored.

    The week ended with the euro major pair being the top concern after the improved European government bond yields. Meanwhile, the topic on UKís Brexit remains uncertain along with the Sino-US trade deal, which is not surprising for the market at the present condition.

    For today, various data from eurozone including German March Consumer Confidence Survey Index, the KOF Swiss April Leading Indicator, German March Consumer Confidence Survey Index, updated German April Unemployment Change, GDP numbers from EMU (QoQ), German April HICP (YoY) are expected. On the other hand, February S&P/ Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY), Chicago April PMI and US March (both MoM & YoY) Pending Home Sales are scheduled to be released as well.

    On the technical outlook, the euro major pair is on its way to recovery. The pair moves close to the upper area of the Bollinger Bands, indicating upward signals. The important 200-days SMA recently crossed the 50-days SMA and moved below it. Yet, all the major SMA have bullish legs. As for the RSI, it stayed around the overbought area.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  2. #572
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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 16, 2019

    The euro major pair continues to be subdued during the Thursday session as it stays close to 1.1210 despite the Eurogroup meeting on the eve. It shows that the pair seems to have no direction prior to the ECB official speech.

    The pair shows a good rally from 1.1183 to 1.1225 previously. The uptrend occurred when Trump announced the possibility of a delay the import tariffs on autos for six months. This supports the European automobile industry and raises the pair.

    The reports imply that the US president is hesitant to further move on trade disputes. Trump already had a hard time with the US-China trade war and prefers to avoid any simultaneous trade obstacles with other partners. Hence, a strong trade dispute between the EU and the US seems to cool off at least on the short-term.

    Although, the EUR/USD pair cannot have large movement despite increasing Italy-German bond yields. Yesterday, yields rose by 140 bp, which was the highest figure since December. The rise in bond yields happened in the background of Italian Deputy PM rhetorics, saying that the peak should be adjusted to 140% of GDP.

    Meanwhile, the retail sales figures cause the dropped of the dollar gains yesterday and the US dollar index trades close to 97.5.

    Following data are to be released today in the US: Housing in April (MoM), Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims from period May 10 and Continuing Jobless Claims from May 3.

    In the technical perspective, the price shows to be trading below the 50- and 100-SMA, indicating a bearish trend for the day. The top resistance remains at 1.1263 and the support close to 1.1178. Of the pair rises in the future, the next target resistance will likely be around 1.1323. The pair being above the Bollinger band may mean an increase and could develop into a bullish trend from the traders. The RSI was found close to the 55th figure, which confirms active purchases of the pair.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  3. #573
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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 17, 2019

    In the beginning of todayís trading session, the euro major pair has shown less or no volatility. The euro major pair moves close to 1.1170/80 levels but there is no certain direction and moves around the weekly low levels.

    The positive associated with the delay in US car import tariffs had a transient effect on the pair. Meanwhile, the weak fundamental report pushed the pair to low levels.

    The future for the greenback looks optimistic while the index was able to recover the losses during the week. Various data on US Housing data, Unemployment figures, and Manufacturing Survey reports pushed the pair to reach high levels of 97.88. On the other hand, the Eurozone April CPI figures and US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index line may affect the future movements of the pair.

    The CPI data from the eurozone is anticipated to be released with a forecast of a decrease by 0.3% on MoM. On the other hand, the data on Consumer Sentiments Index in May, which is presumed to rise close to 97.5%. There will also be speeches from Fed officials today.

    On the 4-hour chart, the price will likely be lower than 50-, 100- and 200-SMA and moves in a bearish tone. Yet, the 50-SMA being above the 100-SMA may mean a chance for a bullish sentiment. The RSI was found around 40th figure that gives moderate purchases of the pair.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  4. #574
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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 20, 2019

    In todayís trading session, the euro major pair started the day close to 1.1161, hovering close the Friday low of 1.1153.

    After the release of the eurozoneís April CPI data, the pair remained quiet and met market expectations. The monthly construction data came out higher than with 6.3% figure compared to the estimate of 1.8%. However, the data optimistic figure of the US Michigan Index limited that chances for the rally of the euro major pair.

    The tension of over Italy regarding the EU Fiscal rules has managed the worries of investors amid the rising debt levels of the Italian deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini. He announced the possibility of adjusting higher the debt ceiling to 140% of the GDP, justified that the fiscal policies should adjust over time. There are still other headlines that show less-impact to the movement of the pair.

    Today, there will be an important speech from Fed chief Powell. He is expected to give some insights on the economic interests rates in the global trend, which may have an effect on the US Dollar index.

    On the 1-hour chart, the price was seen to have stayed lower than the SMA and below both the 100- and 200-SMA, indicating a short-term bullish momentum. The central line of the Bollinger band stayed higher than the pair that could mean a bearish tone.

    As for the lower boundary of the Bollinger bands, it was found close to the 1.1151 as the pair drop to the lower area of the Bollinger bands that could also give a bearish sentiment from traders. The RSI moves around 32nd figure with a notion of heavy selling.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  5. #575
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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 21, 2019

    The euro major pair had a better trading than yesterday, which means that there is a chance for a recovery of the pair. Despite the rally of the US dollar, the EUR/USD pair dropped by 0.19%. There was some fresh bids on the USD index prior to the positive data from the US.

    The US-Sino trade talks influenced the overall tone of the dollar traders to decrease. Just recently, some companies such as Huawei, Chinese Giant Telecommunication Equipment Company were blacklisted in the US, which then affected the Chinese business. After the news, Huawei clients had retreated, as well as, another chipset manufacturer from Europe. Meanwhile, updates for Android was suspended by Google.

    Investors are concerned with the backlash of China against the action of the US. At the same time, this adds pressure over dollar with the continuous uncertainty from trade talks. The EUR/USD pair gained advantage on the weakened dollar.

    For today, there is no major events from Europe today except for the Consumer Confidence Index for the month of May from the European Commission. The market perceives the pair to remain a bit bullish at the present condition.

    The dollar has already increased prior to the Housing data from the US with a rising forecast. Yet, the increase in the USD index gives a downward pressure to the pair.

    The pair has established a downward movement towards the lower boundary of the Bollinger bands. The RSI showed a trend similar to the pair with the range between 35 and 40 levels. It may mean a low momentum and weak interest from investors. At the same time, it seems that there is a low volatility to the pair given the shorter gap between bands of the pair. Resistance levels are expected around 1.1175, 1.1185, and 1.1225 and support close to 1.1136 and 1.1111 levels.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  6. #576
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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 22, 2019

    In the beginning, the euro major pair shows a high chance of recovery. Although the pair attempted for a breakout, it failed to surpass the resistance level of 1.1164. Moving forward, the pair stayed close to the level of 1.1155, showing an opposite downward curve.

    On the eve, the pair rose by 0.13% soon after the release of Mayís agreement. Nonetheless, the pair could not settle gains and return to the lower level.

    With the continued uncertainty for the US-Sino trade war that seems to be moving wrongly. As well, as the damages incurred with the issue with Huawei. This adds pressure to the whole global economy.

    Any unexpected result may bring in volatility to the pair while the market presently had high hopes to Brexit, which then plunge the pair downward.

    The Fed chief has a scheduled speech for today to discuss the matter of interest rates and other economic concerns. Previously, Draghi said that there is a possibility to keep the interest rates unchanged. The FOMC minutes of the meeting is the focus for today, which will likely have a high impact on the US dollar index.

    The trend of the EUR/USD pair seems to be having a bearish tone with the price below the baseline of the Ichimoku clouds on the trend. The further it goes down, the more that it will likely sell. The RSI showed the pairís movement staying between 50th and 40th figure. It signifies moderate buying and slight interest of investors. The price of the pair was initially at 1.1160 and then declined to 1.1153. In case of a further decline, the pair may find support at 1.1142 and oppositely, it will likely go up until the resistance of 1.1188.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  7. #577
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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 23, 2019

    The euro major pair declined on Thursday morning from 1.1155, aiming for a breakdown at the support level of 1.1149. Today, there will be the EU Parliamentary Elections which may greatly affect the pair and further be pressured.

    On the other hand, the Brexit is presumed to take place prior to the elections. Nonetheless, PM Theresa May could not finish the Brexit matter. France was allocated with a spot to the Union but the UK is still participating and everything has to have their own places.

    On the other hand, the US dollar surpasses the level of 98.12 which as more pressure to the EUR/USD pair with the USD index. The FOMC minutes of the meeting was released last night and it was unexpected for them to keep the rates the same. At the same time, the minutes have mentioned that the current economic situation is less likely to have a big impact on the currencies.

    For the Fundamental reports, data on Manufacturing PMI for Germany and the Eurozone are scheduled to be released today. These have to be monitored as it may greatly affect the pair. Moreover, German GDP, Services & the Composite PMI, German Expectations from IFO, the Business Climate, and the Current Assessment are expected as well.

    On the US side, reports on Continuing and Initial Jobless claims figures, Markit PMI for the Services, Manufacturing and the Composite of both sectors are anticipated by everyone. Aside from that, we have the New Home Sales and the Sales Change report to monitor as well.

    Traders should be mindful of the initial buying on the start of the European trading session as the candle closes on the hourly chart. The resistance above 1.1150 gives a stronger resistance, which was tested for support several times in the previous week. In case that the pair resumed a breakout, sellers may see mix strategies close to the resistance around 1.1170. There seems to be a horizontal level that limits aside from the upper line from the descending channel which restricts the price movement in mid-May. Overall, seeing a marginal breakdown close to the early May low at 1.1135 had encountered some puny stops from weak traders. It could further go down to 1.1109 in case of a continuous descent. Meanwhile, bearsí attention is on the support of 1.1135 towards 1.0975 to 1.10.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

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    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 24, 2019

    The euro meets pressure again during the Thursday session with the looming from the markets again. Presently, we cannot be certain on what pushed this trend to occur but we can just base it on the common reasons. One of which is a trade war between the US and China. Directly stating the situation, it seems there is more from what is happening. Hence, the present market reflects the standing of the US dollar.

    If we look at the price, significant support is found at 1.11, which will likely be tested during the trading session. If the price breaks lower than the daily close, it will pave its way towards the level of 1.10. However, this pair will not exactly be an easy run. Although, Iíd say that it wonít be long before the buyers return in the market. Furthermore, we should also focus our attention on how the daily candle forms. If it bounces from here, the next probable target level will be 1.1150. Needless to say, this pair isnít exactly best to trade at the moment. It is quite tight, which is usual but that makes it the latter option in gaining profit. Scalpers are primarily the ones who will gain an advantage of this and the level of 1.11 is a good level to start off as it may offer a slight jump.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

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