Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Trump. Season 2: Intrigue, rates and a cryptocurrency with his own name

New rate: dollar stable, Asian markets cautiously optimistic
The dollar continued to show resilience on Monday, while Asian stock markets expressed cautious optimism. Investors were tensely awaiting Donald Trump's first steps in his second term, and speculated that Japan could revise its key rate this week.

Trump's inauguration and statements
Donald Trump will be sworn in at noon ET (17:00 GMT). At a rally on Sunday, he declared the beginning of a "whole new era of American strength," fueling expectations for his first decisions of the new term.

The president has promised to sign about a hundred executive orders in the first hours after the inauguration. Key initiatives include pledges to deport illegal immigrants, cut red tape, and make active use of the country's energy resources.

On Friday, Trump demonstrated his trademark unpredictability by launching a digital token. He also unexpectedly promised to "save" the popular Chinese app TikTok, which under new legislation has been banned in the United States on national security grounds.

Economic Signals and Foreign Policy
With U.S. financial markets closed for a holiday on Monday, the reaction to the presidential inauguration is likely to come later, starting with the currency market. Traders are paying particular attention to the prospects for changes in Washington's tariff policy. The impact of new economic steps could become apparent as early as Tuesday, when Asian markets open.

Trump also showed a willingness to maneuver diplomatically: His phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday was reportedly constructive.

Market Reaction
As of Monday morning, U.S. stock futures in Asia were slightly lower. The dollar, which has been strengthening since the fall on the back of positive economic data and a successful Trump election campaign, remained stable.

Asian investors are cautious, analyzing the potential impact of the first decisions of Trump's new term and the upcoming meeting of the Japanese central bank.

Asian stocks rise, dollar remains strong
Japan's Nikkei index (.N225) showed a 1% gain on Monday, setting a positive tone in the region. Investors' attention is focused on the U.S. economic agenda and key statistics that could influence the future outlook for markets.

U.S. indices gain
U.S. stock indices pleased investors last week, with the S&P 500 (.SPX) posting its best weekly gain since November and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) posting its biggest gain since December. The results came after data showed inflation was slowing, supporting optimism about the strength of the U.S. economy.

Dollar: Strength Continues
The US dollar remains strong, up 14% against the euro since September. It was at $1.0273 on Monday, close to a two-year high. However, experts warn that markets have priced in potential tariff hikes, which could limit further gains.

Trump Tariffs: New Threats to Global Trade
President Trump has taken an aggressive stance on tariffs, threatening 10% tariffs on global imports, 60% tariffs on goods from China, and a 25% surcharge on Canadian and Mexican goods. Trade experts warn that such measures could disrupt global supply chains, raise costs for companies, and trigger retaliatory sanctions from affected countries.

Impact on Canadian and Mexican Markets
The Canadian dollar hit a five-year low on Monday, falling to $1.4486 per US dollar. The Mexican peso also came under pressure, hitting a 2.5-year low of 20.94 per dollar on Friday. The moves underscore the unease surrounding the currencies of the US's neighbors amid tariff uncertainty.

Cryptocurrencies and Bonds: New Trends
Bitcoin slipped early in Asian trading but remained above $100,000, remaining attractive to investors despite volatility. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended last week at 4.61%, up nearly 100 basis points in the past four months.

Amid a tense global economic environment, market attention remains focused on the actions of the US. The outlook for tariffs and inflation will shape the agenda for the coming weeks, as investors continue to analyze the impact of these factors on global financial flows.

Trade Policy: China in Focus
China remains at the center of the trade standoff, with the United States seeing it as a prime target for tough tariffs. Meanwhile, investors are welcoming positive economic data from China that beat expectations, fueling interest in regional markets.

How will Trump and Xi Jinping's relationship play out?

The economic and political ties between the United States and China play a key role in analysts' forecasts. Ken Peng, head of Asia investment strategy at Citi Wealth, noted that the outcome of the talks and interaction between the two leaders, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, will be the most important indicators of future trade policy.

"Their personal relationship now plays the role of not only a political but also an economic indicator," Peng emphasized during a briefing in Singapore.

Chinese markets show confidence
Amid positive economic data, Chinese stock indices ended last week with growth. Futures also pointed to a cautious rise in Hong Kong stocks at the open.

The Chinese yuan is showing resilience, settling at 7.3355 per dollar in offshore trading. However, it may take time to adjust to the new trading conditions.

Australian dollar: Exposure to China's economy
The Australian dollar, closely linked to China's trade flows, has started to recover from a five-year low. The currency could strengthen to $0.6322 if Trump's tariff plans are less aggressive than expected, according to Joe Capurso, a strategist at the Commonwealth Bank. For now, the rate has stabilized around $0.62.

Japanese yen and rate expectations
The Japanese yen strengthened last week on signals from the Bank of Japan that were seen as preparations for a rate hike. Markets say there is about an 80% chance of a 25 basis point hike on Friday. The yen remained stable on Monday, trading at 156.17 per dollar.

The development of US-China trade policy in the coming weeks could be a key factor for global markets. With global leaders' meetings and central bank decisions in focus, investors continue to assess the long-term outlook.

Commodity and crypto markets: new trends and unexpected moves
Commodity prices continue to show stability. Gold remains at $2,694 per ounce, while Brent crude rose to $81.21 per barrel. However, it was the unexpected activity in the cryptocurrency sector associated with Donald Trump that attracted the most attention.

Cryptocurrency $TRUMP: explosive debut
The new cryptocurrency issued by Donald Trump has become a sensation. On Monday, it soared by 73%, reaching a price of $46.06 per token, leading to a market capitalization of about $9.2 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. In just 24 hours, the trading volume was an impressive $42.2 billion.

Initiated as a meme coin, the $TRUMP token quickly attracted the attention of not only investors but also the crypto community. The move expands Trump's presence in digital finance, which already includes World Liberty Financial. The launch of the meme coin coincided with his return to the US presidency, adding interest to the project.

Questions of influence: Regulators are monitoring the situation
The sharp rise in the value of $TRUMP has raised questions about the influence of public figures on speculative markets. Justin D'Anetan, an independent crypto analyst based in Hong Kong, expressed concern about how political leaders can influence such assets.

"Can public figures use their influence in such situations? This is an issue that regulators cannot ignore," he said.

Cryptocurrencies as the new "digital gold"
Peter Schiff, chief economist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, compared $TRUMP to the "new digital gold," highlighting its phenomenal growth. While experts debate the coin's long-term prospects, its rapid rise has become a landmark event in the world of digital assets.

"Crypto President" and Promises of Reform
Donald Trump has already announced his intention to become a "crypto president." In his new role, he plans to issue executive orders that will simplify regulation of the cryptocurrency industry and create conditions for its development. This announcement has increased interest in his cryptocurrency projects, as well as in the broader prospects for the introduction of digital assets into the economy.

Inauguration Intrigue and the Future of Cryptocurrency
Today at noon ET (17:00 GMT), Donald Trump will officially take office as president. His first decisions in his new term, especially related to cryptocurrency, will be closely watched by the markets, as they could set a new direction for the digital economy.

Trump's crypto debut, combined with his plans for the presidency, promises to be a key topic not only for investors but also for regulators. A new wave of digital assets is poised to change global financial flows, and the ambitions of the new US leader could play a key role in this.

Crypto Markets Resurface: Policy Loosening Brings Optimism
Donald Trump's plans to loosen regulations in the cryptocurrency industry have caused a strong response in the community. Following his election victory in November, leading digital assets, including Bitcoin, have begun to show significant growth, reflecting market expectations.

Bitcoin: A Steady Rise
Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, is showing resilience in a volatile environment. On Monday, it traded at $101,826.51, down 2.6% from its previous high, but up more than 10% in a month. This growth suggests that investors are optimistic about the prospects for the new cryptocurrency policy promised by Trump.

Market Expectations and the Role of Bitcoin
The impact of regulatory easing extends beyond one asset. Bitcoin remains a barometer of sorts for the entire crypto market, reflecting investor sentiment and expectations regarding the new conditions. Trump has promised to remove regulatory barriers, which could facilitate institutional investment and accelerate the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies.

Markets React to Changes
Bitcoin's rise after the election suggests that the market has already begun to factor in changes related to the new president's policies. Entrepreneurs and traders expect Trump to focus on creating a more favorable environment for digital assets. This move could give the United States a strategic advantage in the global cryptocurrency race.

Donald Trump's plans for cryptocurrency policy have already changed the mood on the market. His plans to support the digital economy set the stage for further growth in Bitcoin and other assets, with market participants eagerly awaiting the president's first decrees.
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The main events by the morning: January 21

Upon assuming the office of President of the United States, Donald Trump signed a number of decrees that marked fundamental changes in the country's political course. Among his first decisions are the cancellation of 78 decrees issued by his predecessor Joe Biden, as well as the US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement.

The President-elect of the United States immediately took action after taking office. One of Trump's first steps was to pardon 1,500 people convicted of participating in the storming of the Capitol in January 2021. He also temporarily suspended all U.S. foreign aid programs for 90 days and announced the country's withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO).

Trump has announced a number of initiatives that will determine the future economic and foreign policy of the United States. He announced the introduction of 100% trade duties for the BRICS countries, as well as 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, which will take effect on February 1. In addition, the president announced the cessation of oil purchases from Venezuela and demanded that NATO countries increase defense spending to 5% of their GDP.

About Russia and Ukraine: «We will try to put an end to the Ukrainian conflict as soon as possible.» Trump noted that he would understand the possible timing of the end of the conflict in Ukraine only after a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. When asked about the prospect of maintaining sanctions, Trump said he considered tariffs to be more effective. He also promised an early conversation with Putin and reiterated that Zelensky is ready for a deal with the Russian Federation.

Bitcoin has fallen from record peaks amid the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies. The cryptocurrency markets were waiting for some decrees from Trump, but in his speech, the president did not mention either the industry or bitcoin. As a result, BTC fell from yesterday's high of $109,000 to an area near $100,000. The TRUMP and MELANIA memecoins, which caused a stir in the crypto market in recent days, also lost most of their growth.
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The main events by the morning: January 22

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin had a video conversation. The leaders of Russia and China noted that by the end of 2024, the countries' trade turnover reached a record high of $245 billion, an increase of 7%. Xi and Putin again called each other «dear friends,» and the Chinese president expressed his willingness to take the countries' relations to a new level.

India will buy more oil from the United States after anti-Russian sanctions, and payments for Russian oil are delayed. India is now one of the 2 largest buyers of Russian oil. Sanctions against Russian tankers are hindering supplies, and restrictions on payments are causing Indian banks to question their interpretation.

The Bank of Russia has been asked to oblige banks to compensate citizens for monetary losses caused by fraudsters. «A Just Russia – For Truth» has made a corresponding request to the regulator. The faction believes that against the background of an increase in the volume of embezzlement from Russians, it is necessary to introduce additional mechanisms to protect and support the population.

Trump is destroying all the Democrats' efforts to protect inclusivity. The new president's administration will send all employees of the federal services for diversity, equality and inclusivity on leave. Among other things, agencies must stop employee training related to DEI, as well as terminate contracts related to it.

The United States will begin to develop artificial intelligence at the state level. Trump announced the creation of Stargate, a joint venture between OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle. The firm is investing at least $500 billion in AI development, and the president has promised to support the company with emergency orders.
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The main events by the morning: January 23

Trump called on Russia to end its war immediately. He noted that there are two ways to end the conflict in Ukraine: easy and difficult. The US president would have chosen the easy way. However, if the conflict cannot be resolved, Trump intends to strengthen sanctions against Russia. At the same time, he added that «he does not pursue the goal of harming Russia and loves the Russian people.»

Ukraine expects the cessation of hostilities in 2025. This was stated by the First Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Sviridenko. According to her, Kiev will enter into negotiations only when the country increases «defense production and is strong enough.» The Deputy Prime Minister also hopes for Trump's active participation in the negotiation process.

Saudi Arabia has promised to increase investment and trade with the United States. Yesterday, Donald Trump and the Prince of Saudi Arabia had a phone call. During the conversation, the Crown Prince of the kingdom confirmed his intention to increase investment and trade with the United States by $600 billion over four years and possibly beyond this amount. Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud also congratulated Trump on his re-election and conveyed congratulations from the king.

Trump has closed the southern border of the United States to illegal immigrants. US President Donald Trump has signed a decree suspending the entry of illegal migrants across the southern border and expelling them. He also restricted the right of migrants who entered the country through the southern border to stay there under the pretext of seeking asylum.

The United States is increasing its military presence on the border with Mexico. As part of Trump's orders, 1,500 military personnel, helicopters and intelligence analysts have already been sent to the southern border. In the near future, another 10,000 soldiers will go to the border. The Pentagon says that the announced measures are just the beginning.
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