Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Gold prices rise amid escalating trade disputes

On Monday, gold prices rose slightly after a sharp decline at the end of last week. The current quote for spot gold is $2,898 per ounce. Despite the local weakening, the asset is still near record highs in the area of $2,960.

Interest in the precious metal remains due to its status as a «safe haven» amid ongoing uncertainty around trade tariffs and interest rate changes in the United States.

Over the past two weeks, gold has repeatedly updated its record values. The rise in prices for the precious metal was the result of increased interest from investors seeking to minimize risks. This happened after Donald Trump imposed 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports into the United States.

In addition, the head of the White House announced his intention to introduce additional tariffs in response to the actions of the country's leading economic partners. Despite this, such measures are expected no earlier than April.

Where Have Dollar Buyers Gone?

Yesterday, President Donald Trump's statements about new trade tariffs were largely ignored by dollar buyers. However, risk-asset sellers were also notably absent.

During his speech, Trump announced that he would likely impose tariffs on imported cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical products, with rates expected to be around 25%. These tariffs are likely to take effect on April 2. While such a move would escalate the ongoing trade war, the market showed little reaction.

It is worth recalling that Trump had previously announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, set to take effect in March. "I'll probably tell you on April 2, but it's going to be somewhere around 25%," Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago club when asked about the planned auto tariffs.

Regarding tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, Trump stated: "The tariffs will be 25% or higher, and they will increase significantly over the year." He explained that he wants to give companies time to adjust before introducing new import taxes. "Let companies come to the United States and open their factories here, and then there won't be any tariffs," Trump added.

Impact on the Auto Industry
Experts warn that new auto tariffs could have widespread consequences for the industry. Last year, around 8 million cars and light trucks were imported into the US, accounting for nearly half of all car sales.

Major European automakers, including Volkswagen AG, as well as Asian manufacturers like Hyundai Motor Co., will likely be among the hardest hit.

Trump did not specify whether these measures would target specific countries or apply to all imported vehicles. It is also unclear whether cars produced under free trade agreements with Canada and Mexico would be exempt.

For Mexico and South Korea, where auto exports to the US make up 2.4% and 1.8% of GDP, respectively, Trump's new tariffs pose a serious economic challenge.

Impact on the Semiconductor Sector
In the semiconductor sector, Malaysia and Singapore are expected to be among the hardest-hit nations. Malaysia, the sixth-largest exporter of semiconductors, recorded $136 billion in semiconductor exports in 2024.

Representatives from Samsung Electronics Co. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. declined to comment on the new tariffs.

Potential Retaliatory Measures
Recently, US trading partners have vowed to respond swiftly to Trump's tariffs, warning that they will target politically sensitive US-made goods.

A top European Union trade official is expected to travel to Washington this week for last-ditch talks aimed at avoiding the April tariffs. However, Trump has made it clear that no country will be able to negotiate its way out of the tariffs if he considers trade relations to be imbalanced.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook
Right now, EUR/USD buyers need to push the price above 1.0475. This will open the way for a test of 1.0510. Breaking above this level could lead to an advance toward 1.0554, though achieving this without support from major players will be challenging. The long-term target remains 1.0590.

If the pair declines, serious buying interest is expected around 1.0430. If buyers fail to emerge at that level, a drop to 1.0400 or even 1.0370 could be on the horizon.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook
For GBP/USD buyers, the key level to break is 1.2630. Successfully overcoming this resistance could lead to a test of 1.2665, though further gains beyond this point would be difficult. The final target stands at 1.2690.

If the pair falls, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.2590. A break below this range would seriously weaken bullish positions, pushing GBP/USD toward 1.2550, with a potential move down to 1.2515.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues its strong upward momentum, reaching a new all-time high above $2,950. The surge is driven by concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs could lead to a global trade war, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields is further supporting bullish sentiment in the gold market.

The FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its policy pause for an extended period. While this could deter traders from opening new positions, potentially limiting gold's gains, the overall fundamental backdrop remains bullish, suggesting that the path of least resistance for XAU/USD is still upward.

Technical Outlook for Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading above 70, indicating overbought conditions and calling for caution among bulls. This suggests that gold prices could consolidate within a weekly range before attempting another move higher.

The short-term trend remains bullish, and a sustained break above the $2,945–2,950 resistance zone could pave the way for further gains.

Key Support and Resistance Levels:

Immediate support is located at $2,930, followed by yesterday's low at $2,918 and the psychological level of $2,900.

A break below $2,900 could lead to deeper corrective declines towards $2,880, with further downward potential extending to the $2,860–2,855 region and the $2,834 support level.

If selling pressure intensifies, gold could drop toward $2,815, followed by $2,800 and the critical support zone at $2,785–2,784.

On the other hand, a clear breakout above $2,950 would confirm bullish momentum, potentially driving gold prices toward $3,000 and beyond in the coming sessions.

The main events by the morning: February 21

Under the chancellorship of Olaf Scholz, Germany's share in world trade dropped to a record 6.3%. The indicator fell even despite the growth of exports to 1.59 trillion euros in 2022. The trade turnover in 2023 amounted to 2.87 trillion euros, becoming the lowest during his reign. The political crisis and the collapse of the coalition have increased economic uncertainty. Polls predict the victory of the opposition in the elections.

Trump said his administration has implemented a policy of reciprocal duties, protecting American manufacturers and reducing the trade deficit. According to him, these measures will bring billions of dollars to the budget. He also noted the economic successes in the first weeks of work and stressed the importance of protecting workers and combating illegal migration to strengthen the US economy.

The G7 countries have changed their decision regarding the tightening of the ceiling on Russian oil prices. The original version of the communique, timed to coincide with three years since the beginning of the CBO, was significantly softened. The final document stresses that «reliable security guarantees and Ukraine's integration into the EU will be crucial to ensure lasting peace that prevents future aggression.» In addition, the G7 no longer qualifies Russia's actions as «illegal.»

Secretary of State Rubio noted that the United States should maintain relations with Russia, regardless of whether they agree with its actions. He criticized the Biden administration for losing contact with Russia, which, according to him, was not observed even at the height of the 20th century Cold War. Rubio also added that the future meeting between Putin and Trump will depend on the settlement process at lower levels.

The return of foreign automakers to Russia should not cause great difficulties. According to sources, Renault, Nissan, Hyundai, Mercedes and Ford retained the buyback option, which will allow them to easily restore their representative offices in the country. Nevertheless, it is expected that companies wishing to return will be subject to strict localization requirements and the creation of new production facilities.

Bitcoin takes its time: new records still ahead?

According to analysts, Bitcoin is currently in a relatively stable state but is in no hurry to reach new highs. This has caused concern among market participants, though some experts see no reason for alarm.

In previous growth cycles, major news events and market anticipation played a key role in BTC rise. In 2023–2024, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the upcoming halving fueled optimism among traders and investors. Experts at Crypto Summit said that Bitcoin needed a trigger for a new bull rally.

At the moment, however, there are no major events that could spark a rapid surge. As a result, the market remains cautious, trading within a wide range while waiting for the next significant catalyst. Experts predict that in the first half of 2025, BTC is likely to continue fluctuating between $90,000 and $110,000, with a new all-time high not expected before the second half of the year.

On January 20, BTC hit its first peak of the year at $109,114. However, it is currently experiencing some challenges. On February 24, it opened with a decline, trading around $95,360. Over the past 24 hours, BTC reached a low of $95,270 and a high of $96,594.

Last week, BTC had reason to celebrate a milestone. On February 19, 2021, BTC's market capitalization surpassed $1 trillion for the first time. Since then, it has nearly doubled, now standing at $1.9 trillion. However, these past achievements have had little effect on Bitcoin's current performance, as the leading digital asset remains below $100,000.

Late on Wednesday, February 19, Bitcoin continued trading sideways. A balance between bullish and bearish pressure has been keeping it in a tight range since early February 2025. Over the past two weeks, BTC has been hovering below $100,000. Technical and on-chain data suggests that it may stay below this key level for a while.

The BTC technical chart indicates a strengthening bearish scenario. The relative strength index (RSI) also signals downward pressure. Currently, the RSI is at 44.29, below the neutral 50-point mark.

An RSI reading of 44.29 suggests that selling pressure is stronger than buying interest but has not yet reached oversold territory (30 points). This leaves room for a deeper decline or potential consolidation before a trend reversal.

BTC at crossroads: drop to $90,000 or break above $100,000?

Bitcoin is now trading slightly below the $99,805 resistance level. If selling pressure increases, BTC risks breaking out of its narrow range to the downside, potentially falling below $90,000 and touching $89,434.

On the other hand, renewed bullish momentum could reverse the bearish trend. In that case, BTC may break through $99,805 and surpass the barrier of $100,000. If the currency gains momentum from this level, it could reach its all-time high of $109,350.

However, for a breakout to happen, Bitcoin needs a strong catalyst, which is currently lacking. Many traders agree that the cryptocurrency needs a major event or a high-profile development to attract investors again.

US monetary policy is one more key factor for BTC. Analysts believe that a Federal Reserve rate cut would increase the appeal of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Experts at TEHNOBIT note that a moderate BTC rally could follow an interest rate cut by the Fed but believe this is unlikely before the regulator's June meeting.

Experts have differing opinions on the timing of the Fed's next moves. Some expect a significant rate cut by the end of 2025, while others anticipate the first changes by summer. If monetary easing coincides with major institutional deals or government initiatives, Bitcoin's growth could accelerate.

Analysts also highlight the connection between the tech sector and the crypto market. Any major developments—especially in artificial intelligence—could boost the entire industry. TEHNOBIT emphasizes that if investors identify a rapidly growing niche in AI, the entire sector will gain momentum, and cryptocurrencies will follow.

Preliminary forecasts suggest that BTC will remain in a broad trading range until mid-2025 without setting new all-time highs. However, market participants are waiting for potential catalysts: major crypto industry news, Fed policy shifts, and technological breakthroughs. If all these factors align, BTC could reach a new record high in the second half of 2025.

The main events by the morning: February 25

Putin held a meeting on the development of the rare earth metals industry. The Russian president said he did not rule out involving foreign partners, including the United States, in projects in this area. He also suggested thinking about launching an aluminum mining project in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, which could involve American companies. According to Putin, Russia is ready to supply the United States with 2 million tons of aluminum per year.

Bitcoin is falling: yesterday it was minus 5%, today it is minus 3%. Experts attribute the fall of the coin to the expectation of an increase in the key rate in the United States: inflation may unexpectedly surprise. The index of fear and greed in the crypto market has collapsed from a neutral level to the «extreme fear» zone.

At the upcoming meeting between representatives of the United States and Russia, the American side plans to discuss the steps that Moscow is ready to take to resolve the conflict. This was stated by Secretary of State Rubio. At the same time, the White House announced Trump's intention to hold meetings with Putin and Zelensky soon. Russia continues to insist that its goals have not been achieved, and territorial issues will not be discussed in future negotiations.

The European Union is launching a preemptive strike against the United States. Brussels intends to expand the list of goods subject to European duties. However, new measures will be introduced only if Trump decides to impose duties on European steel and aluminum.

Russian banks express confidence in the reduction of the Central Bank's key interest rate. At the end of February, rates on ruble deposits reached multi-month lows, averaging in the range of 20.2-21.2%, depending on the deposit period. This indicates the reaction of credit institutions to the softening of the Central Bank's rhetoric and the possibility of an early easing of monetary policy in the country.

Gold: Is the $3,000 Level Getting Closer?

The yellow metal continues its bullish trend set earlier this month. Despite some volatility in the gold market, gold remains on track for new highs. However, reaching these peaks still appears uncertain, as the precious metals market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, which continue to create turbulence.

Despite rising risks, analysts and market participants remain confident that gold could soon reach $3,000 per ounce, potentially by early March.

Currently, the gold market is experiencing an unprecedented rally, marking its eighth consecutive week of gains, consistently closing in positive territory and setting new records. Last week, gold posted its longest weekly winning streak since the mid-2000s when it first crossed the $2,000 per ounce threshold.

By the end of last week, spot gold was priced at $2,935.80 per ounce, reflecting a 2% increase. On Wednesday, February 26, gold extended its rally before experiencing a slight pullback, trading around $2,911 per ounce.

At present, XAU/USD has recovered some lost ground after hitting its weekly low. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over U.S. tariff plans under President Donald Trump continue to support gold as it remains a traditional safe-haven asset for investors.

According to analysts, the Biden administration's tariff policies have sparked concerns over inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider keeping interest rates elevated for longer. This scenario could limit gold's upside potential, as higher interest rates reduce the metal's appeal.

Nevertheless, gold maintains a strong bullish outlook, despite the possibility of short-term consolidation. Over the near term, gold prices may remain range-bound, but the bullish forecast remains intact, particularly as gold continues to trade above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

The historical high of $2,957 remains out of reach for now. A break above this level would trigger a move toward $2,980, marking the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands. This would represent a crucial step toward the psychological $3,000 per ounce milestone.

Alternatively, in a bearish scenario, the February 25 low of $2,888 serves as the initial support level for gold. A sustained decline could expose the metal to further downside risk, potentially dropping toward $2,795, which aligns with the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands. However, the key support level remains at $2,718 per ounce.

Many analysts believe that gold reaching $3,000 per ounce is inevitable. Given the strong fundamental backdrop, gold continues to receive substantial support from multiple factors. As long as these tailwinds persist, the long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact.

"Gold's ability to adapt to evolving market narratives continues to drive its upward momentum," experts note. "Key fundamentals such as inflation fears, weakening global trade, and central banks shifting away from traditional currencies in favor of gold are strengthening its position."

Market analysts remain confident that gold has the potential for further gains, with geopolitical risks playing a significant role in driving demand for safe-haven assets.

According to currency strategist James Stanley, gold is unlikely to face major resistance as it approaches $3,000 per ounce. He views this level as a key psychological threshold, noting that breaking through it will require time and sustained momentum.

Further upside for gold—toward $3,000 and beyond—will largely depend on U.S. fiscal policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary stance. "Gold continues to rise despite the Fed's pause on rate hikes. Policymakers recognize that further rate increases are unwarranted at this stage," Stanley added.

A major risk factor for gold moving forward will be inflation data. "The primary threat to gold is a potential shift in market expectations regarding monetary policy. If inflation slows faster than anticipated, or if central banks take a more hawkish stance, gold could face downward pressure," said Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets.

Additionally, a stronger U.S. dollar or rising bond yields could slow down gold's bullish momentum in the near term. However, unless these factors shift significantly, gold remains poised for further gains, with $3,000 per ounce within reach.

Gold is preparing for its biggest weekly drop since November

On Friday, gold prices showed a decline, preparing for the largest weekly drop since November, due to the strengthening of the dollar. Investors are eagerly awaiting important data on inflation in the United States, which may provide clues about the future policy of the Federal Reserve System.

The spot price of gold dropped to $2,851 per ounce, which means a 2.5% drop in a week after eight weeks of growth. Gold futures fell 0.8% to reach $2,863.

Despite the fact that gold is traditionally considered a safe asset, uncertainty in trade relations may continue the process of profit-taking against the background of a stronger dollar, economists say.

On Thursday, Donald Trump announced that his proposed tariffs of 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada will take effect on March 4, along with an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports. This decision is due to the continued flow of dangerous drugs from these countries to the United States.

Investors are also focused on personal consumer spending (PCE) data, which is the Fed's preferred inflation indicator and will be released later on Friday.

The spot price of silver fell 0.2% to $31.19 per ounce, platinum fell 0.1% to $948.05, and palladium fell 0.2% to $916.46. All three metals continue to show declines this month.

The main events by the morning: March 3

The bitcoin exchange rate went up sharply after Trump's words about the creation of the US crypto reserve. The American president said that the new reserve will include bitcoin, ethereum, XRP, solana and cardano. All of these cryptocurrencies have also shown growth. The current quote of the BTC/USD pair is $91,442, and the local maximum was marked at $95,151.

China is ready for a trade war with the United States: the country plans to impose tariffs on imports of agricultural and food products from the states. This step will be a response to Trump's harsh tariff policy. At the same time, Europe, which will also be subject to harsh tariffs, will lose 1.5% of GDP. And this is without taking into account possible EU retaliatory measures, which can only make the situation worse.

The Moscow Exchange successfully conducted its first weekend of trading, which took place on March 1 and 2, with a total trading volume of 10.1 billion rubles. 23 professional participants participated in these auctions, 291 thousand transactions were concluded. The shares of such companies as Gazprom, T-Technologies, Sber, VTB and Novatek were the most popular.

Macron shared the details of the European plan to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. The French president expressed doubts about the effectiveness of a possible truce that could be reached between the United States and Russia. In this regard, France, together with the UK, is developing its own strategy. The first step in this regard will be a cease-fire in the air and at sea, as well as the introduction of a moratorium on attacks on energy facilities. In the future, it is planned to send peacekeepers to the territory of Ukraine.

The Hungarian Prime Minister called the decision of European countries to continue the conflict in Ukraine erroneous. Orban believes that Kiev is being pushed to continue fighting, which, in his opinion, is a bad and dangerous course.

Oil prices have collapsed below $71 per barrel, updating the lows of December 2024

The price of Brent crude oil fell to $70.41 per barrel, while April futures for WTI dropped to $67.45.

The decline in quotations is due to the trade wars against Mexico and Canada initiated by US President Donald Trump, as well as the tightening of duties on goods from China.

On March 3, the White House announced the imposition of import tariffs of 25% on all goods from Mexico and Canada, with the exception of Canadian energy, for which duties amount to 10%. Washington also doubled duties on goods from China, increasing them to 20%. Trump justified these measures by the need to combat the spread of drugs in the United States.

Other factors contributing to the decline in oil prices included OPEC+'s announcement of its intention to maintain plans to increase oil production from April 1, as well as concerns about the possible lifting of sanctions against Russia in the context of the Ukrainian crisis.
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