Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today, following the release of data showing a February slowdown in the national Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Japanese yen continues to trade with a negative tone, creating uncertainty in the market.

The data shows that Japan's national CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year in February, down from 4% in the previous month. Although this slowdown was expected, it will likely influence Japan's economic policy. The nationwide core CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 3.0% compared to a year earlier, slightly above the expected 2.9%, but still below the previous 3.2% reading.

Interestingly, preliminary results from the spring labor negotiations (Shunto) indicate that Japanese companies have largely agreed to substantial wage increases for a third consecutive year. This could boost consumer spending and maintain inflationary pressure, thereby providing room for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates further.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the Shunto results align with expectations, and that the central bank will continue its policy until it is clearly time to act. Achieving the 2% inflation target is important for the BoJ's long-term credibility, and the bank is prepared to adjust policy depending on economic and price conditions.

Investors are confident that strong wage growth in Japan could stimulate consumer spending and support inflation, giving the BoJ scope for rate hikes in 2025.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has announced plans to cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points each before the end of the year, due in part to a downward revision in growth forecasts amid ongoing trade policy uncertainty. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that tariffs could restrain economic growth, posing additional challenges for the U.S. economy.

Consequently, rising demand for the U.S. dollar, supported by the Fed's rate cut projections, is helping USD/JPY maintain intraday gains above the key 149.00 level.

However, the divergence between expected Fed easing and BoJ tightening creates a standoff in the pair, limiting the dollar's upside and providing support to the lower-yielding yen. This calls for caution when opening long positions on further USD/JPY growth.

Technical Outlook
A strong move above the 149.25–149.30 zone would allow USD/JPY to retest the psychological level of 150.00. A break above 150.15 could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing prices toward the interim level at 150.60, followed by 151.00, and ultimately the monthly high near 151.30.

On the other hand, the Asian session low near 148.60 now serves as immediate support. A drop below this level would accelerate the decline toward the weekly low of 148.20–148.15, reached on Thursday.

Further key support levels are located at 148.00 and 147.70—a break below these would open the way to 147.35 and 147.00, and eventually to the 146.55–146.50 area, which marks the lowest level since early October. This view is reinforced by oscillators on the daily chart, which remain in negative territory.
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XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold prices remain low but are holding above the psychological level of $3000, which serves as an important support.

News that emerged over the weekend indicates that U.S. President Donald Trump is planning a narrower and more targeted agenda on reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. This has increased investors' appetite for risk assets, set a positive tone in equity markets, and consequently undermined demand for the precious metal today.

At the same time, U.S. delegations are engaged in talks with Ukrainian officials and are planning meetings with Russian representatives. Earlier this month, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a 30-day pause in strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which may help ease tensions in the region.

The U.S. dollar is hovering near a 1.5-week high reached last week.

However, expectations that economic slowdown caused by tariffs may force the Fed to resume rate cuts are also limiting the downside in gold prices. This creates uncertainty, and it would be prudent to wait for a more significant decline before opening new short positions.

Adding to the uncertainty is the tense situation in the Middle East: Israel continues its strikes on Gaza, while Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched a ballistic missile at Israel, though it was successfully intercepted. These developments increase the risk of further conflict escalation in the region.

Today, traders should pay close attention to the release of PMI data, which will provide fresh insight into the state of the U.S. economy and may impact commodities. Also in focus is the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, due to be published on Friday.

From a technical perspective, the $3000 level may attract buyers, but a break below it could trigger technical selling, pushing gold prices down toward the $2980–2978 area. If the correction continues, the next support lies at $2956–2954.

On the other hand, last week's all-time high near $3057–3058 could act as the nearest resistance. Given that the daily RSI has exited overbought territory, renewed buying may become the next trigger for bulls, opening the way for the continuation of the uptrend observed over the past three months.
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US Market News Digest for March 25

S&P 500 surges to critical level of 5,769
Yesterday, the S&P 500 unexpectedly put on a show, jumping 1.76% to reach 5,769, a level last seen on January 13th. As if following a well-rehearsed script, the Marlin oscillator, like a disciplined performer, touched the boundary of bullish territory. This is top-tier synchronization: critical levels are being tested in unison, forming this very bifurcation point — where the price will either reverse course and plunge towards 5,516, or continue its bold ascent into the 5,881-5,910 range.

A close above 5,769 today would strengthen the case for further gains. However, if this session ends with a bearish black candlestick, bears are likely to start dragging the price lower, targeting the support level of 5,670. Meanwhile, the 4-hour chart shows that the Marlin oscillator remains in a downward channel, though still in positive territory, indicating a potential upside breakout. The Kruzenshtern line is also turning up, pointing to a possible short-term uptrend.

US stocks rally on hopes for softer tariff stance from Trump

Wall Street finally decided to reward investors, rallying strongly on a wave of optimism. What was the reason? The Trump administration seemed to have put on a mask of reason — hinting at a more cautious, measured approach to tariffs, potentially delaying or revising the planned April 2 hikes. As a result, the S&P 500 index jumped 1.8% to a two-week high and even surpassed its 200-day moving average at 5,752. The Dow Jones gained 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.3%. Tech stocks led the way, especially those that had taken a beating earlier in the year.

The stock market was also supported by strong economic data. The S&P Global US Services PMI spiked to 54.3 in March from 51.0 in February, more than offsetting a drop in the Manufacturing PMI, which fell to 49.8 from 52.7. Ten out of eleven S&P 500 sectors closed higher, with eight gaining more than 1.0%. Even the bond market joined the rally — the 10-year Treasury yield soared 8 basis points to 4.33%.

Trump's talk of sectoral tariff exemptions lifts US stock market despite lingering investor caution

US stock indices finally gave investors something to smile about. At the close of yesterday's session, the S&P 500 climbed 1.76%, while the Nasdaq 100 added a confident 2.27%. The optimism was driven by Donald Trump's comments. This time, he opted to loosen his grip a bit, announcing that not all tariffs set for April 2 would be applied across the board. In fact, some countries may be granted sectoral exemptions. The statement immediately stirred economic circles and, unsurprisingly, provided a solid boost to US equities. Still, analysts appear more focused on reading the tea leaves than offering clear direction.

Meanwhile, Chinese investors clearly do not share the US optimism. China's stock market continued its dizzying slide, as if to prove that gravity is no joke. The gauge of Chinese tech stocks in Hong Kong plummeted 3.8%, marking the steepest drop in three weeks. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Xiaomi Corp. led the losers' list: Xiaomi tumbled 6.6%, while Alibaba shed more than 3% after its chairman cautiously hinted at a possible bubble in data center construction.

Trump's auto and goods tariff exemptions calm markets, boost Magnificent Seven stocks

The financial storm may be abating. As the S&P 500 climbed to a three-week high on the back of Trump's softer tone on trade tariffs, banks and investment firms swiftly pivoted to the bullish camp. JP Morgan and Evercore insist that the worst sell-off of 2025 is behind us, while Bank of America says that capital flows are reversing course, with money coming back to the United States. Trump has rolled out a new tariff maneuver: a 25% tariff on anyone buying oil from Venezuela. It is clear that this measure could also be applied to Russia if it continues to stall on decisions regarding Ukraine.

Bank of America argues that capital flight to Europe was triggered by a 14% sell-off in the Magnificent Seven stocks. Tesla and other behemoths that had given up their gains suddenly looked attractive again. Their ratio to the broader market has fallen to its lowest level since late 2022. The White House has scrapped plans for new tariffs on imports of cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals starting April 2. Even if new tariffs do materialize, they will be selective. For now, the breeze of optimism is blowing back towards the United States.

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen remains under pressure today due to weak domestic economic data. In February, Japan's leading inflation indicator in the services sector rose by 3.0% year-over-year, slightly below the 3.1% increase recorded in January. This figure remains an important measure of inflation in Japan's service sector. Coupled with the upbeat sentiment in equity markets, this undermines the yen's safe-haven appeal.

However, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed his intention to continue raising interest rates if economic and price developments align with forecasts outlined in the BoJ's quarterly outlook report. Combined with rising wages, this supports expectations of further monetary policy tightening. Substantial wage increases for the third consecutive year reinforce expectations of additional rate hikes by the central bank.

Meanwhile, some selling pressure on the U.S. dollar is helping the USD/JPY pair remain above the 150.00 level.

On the other hand, the U.S. Federal Reserve last week hinted at two potential 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end. While the Fed raised its inflation forecast, it lowered the growth outlook due to uncertainties stemming from President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies. Trump is expected to announce new tariffs taking effect on April 2, adding further uncertainty to the markets. Additionally, he imposed a secondary tariff on Venezuela, stating that any country purchasing oil or gas from Venezuela will face a 25% duty when trading with the U.S.

Growing pessimism over the U.S. economy has led to declining consumer sentiment for the fourth consecutive month. The Conference Board's Expectations Index fell to 65.2 — its lowest level in 12 years — indicating a potential recession. This pressured the U.S. dollar and led to a pullback from its nearly three-week high.

Despite hawkish remarks by Fed Governor Adriana Kugler about slowing progress in returning inflation to the 2% target, dollar bulls failed to gain the necessary support. Several upcoming speeches from Fed officials may influence the dollar's performance. For short-term momentum in USD/JPY, attention should also be given to the U.S. Durable Goods Orders report, but the key focus will be on Friday's Core PCE Price Index, which will likely shape the pair's next major moves.

Technical Outlook

A breakout above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is considered a key bullish signal.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the daily chart is beginning to show positive momentum, pointing to potential further upside. However, the recent failure near the 151.00 level and a dip back below the psychological 150.00 mark warrant caution. Traders should wait for a solid confirmation above these levels before initiating new long positions to continue the pair's recovery.

The next leg higher could lift spot prices beyond the monthly high near 151.30 and toward the round 152.00 level.

Support Levels

On the other hand, the 149.55 level — yesterday's low — now offers immediate support. A break below this level could open the path toward 149.00, followed by stronger support around 148.78, which aligns with the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. A breach of this zone may tilt the bias in favor of the bears and lead to further losses toward 148.00 and beyond.