Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Gold falls while waiting for a strong impulse

Gold is stuck again in a narrow price range. On Wednesday, the level of $1,780 seemed to magnetize gold quotes to itself. They were brought into a state of stupor by comprehensive uncertainty.

The precious metal ended yesterday's session with a very modest increase. It rose by less than 0.1% or 80 cents. The final price was $1,785.50, although its price reached the high ($1,794. 30) since December 1.

Gold failed to gain a foothold at a level close to the key one due to the lack of convincing impulses. At the moment, all the factors that one way or another may affect the pricing of the yellow asset look vague.

This concerns the situation with a new strain of coronavirus, the future course of the US Federal Reserve, as well as the risk of a military conflict in Ukraine. Now, the market expects certainty on all these issues.

Omicron can still help

The panic over the new COVID-19 strain, which has been observed over the past almost 2 weeks, is gradually fading. Investors are again showing interest in risky assets such as stocks. On Wednesday, US stock markets closed in a positive zone after receiving good news from Pfizer.

The pharmaceutical company reported that during laboratory tests, 3 doses of its vaccine managed to neutralize the "Omicron" strain. In addition, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said that a new vaccine, which, if necessary, will be developed specifically for this COVID-19 mutation, may be ready by March next year.

As concerns about Omicron weaken, traders' appetite for a safe haven asset decreases. However, experts believe that now is not the right time to part with gold.

According to analyst Ross Norman, the value of the yellow asset may still find support from coronavirus risks in the near future, since investors will focus at the end of the year on the prospect of introducing more serious lockdowns due to the active spread of Omicron.

Is the Fed's strategy a real threat?

The next meeting of the US central bank on monetary policy will be held on December 14-15. Many analysts are confident that the easing of concerns about the new COVID-19 strain, which is observed this week, actually frees the hands of the US Federal Reserve.

Now, all the attention of the regulator is focused on accelerating the pace of curtailing the asset purchase program, which was launched at the beginning of the pandemic. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that it would be advisable not to delay this issue and consider it at the next meeting.

Such a rush is due to the fact that the central bank is striving to start raising interest rates as soon as possible and increased inflation no longer seems to the regulator to be a temporary phenomenon.

Some experts believe that the trigger may be tomorrow's publication of the consumer price index in the United States. Economists expect annual inflation to rise to the highest level in recent decades.

Before the release of important statistics, the yield on US Treasury bonds rose above 1.5%, which put pressure on gold. However, the metal managed to resist a sharp decline and even closed in a positive zone, as the dollar index turned out to be weaker than the euro and fell by 0.5% on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, market strategist Ricardo Evangelista predicts that the US currency will appreciate in the coming days. He said that this currency will find support as soon as the Fed's hawkish stance becomes more evident. This will deal a devastating blow to gold.

Gold loves geopolitical risks

Another important factor in the gold market, which has been closely watched by investors in recent days, is the escalation of the military conflict on the Russian-Ukrainian border.

Gold, which loves geopolitical risks, has responded to the long-awaited negotiations with small growth. During the day, it rose by 0.3%. However, there is no significant increase in the demand for a safe shelter in the market now, because "nothing has changed" after the negotiations and there is still great uncertainty around this situation, analyst Jeff Wright said.

Meanwhile, Market strategist Jim Vykoff believes gold will ultimately benefit from the meeting's failure to de-escalate Russia's intentions to invade Ukraine.

According to him, the situation will become even tenser. This means that safe-haven assets (gold and silver) are likely to be more in demand in the near future.

American stock indices rose 0.6-1%

As a result of the entire last week, it increased by 3.8%, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 3.6%, which was the most significant rise since February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 4%. This is the most significant increase since March.

Fresh inflation data was released on Friday, pointing to the fastest rise in consumer prices in the country since June 1982. However, investors hope that the rate of growth in prices has reached or very close to the peak values. Consumer prices (CPI) in the US in November soared 6.8% compared to the same month last year. Inflation accelerated from 6.2% a month earlier and was in line with analysts' forecasts. Thus, the indicator remained above the Federal Reserve System (FRS) target of 2% for the ninth consecutive month.

Consumer and tech sectors on Friday posted the strongest gains in share prices among the S&P 500 industry sub-indices.

Consumer confidence in the US in December rose to 70.4 points from 67.4 points in November, which was the lowest in 10 years, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan, which calculates this figure. Analysts on average had expected a decline to 67.1 points, Trading Economics reported. At the same time, inflationary expectations for the medium term (next year) remained at the level of 4.9% in the current month, for the long term (5 years) - at the level of 3%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday increased by 216.3 points (0.6%) and reached 35970.99 points.

The value of Standard & Poor's 500 for the day increased by 44.57 (0.95%) - up to 4712.02 points.

The Nasdaq Composite rose by 113.23 points (0.73%), amounting to 15,630.6 points.

Costco Wholesale, the operator of the largest network of club stores in the United States, in the first financial quarter, which ended on November 21, increased its net profit by 13% and revenue by 19%, which was better than experts' expectations. The company's shares rose 6.6% on Friday.

One of the world's largest manufacturers of semiconductor products Broadcom in the fourth financial quarter (August-October) received financial results above the consensus forecast. The company also announced a massive share buyback program and a quarterly dividend hike. The price of its shares soared by 8.3%.

Oracle Corp., one of the world's leading software developers, posted a net loss in its second financial quarter, but adjusted earnings and revenues rose above analysts' expectations. The company's shares jumped 15.6%.

Among the leaders of the rise in value among the components of the Dow Jones were Cisco Systems Inc., which rose 3%, Microsoft Corp., which rose 2.8% and Apple Inc., which also rose 2.8%.

Meanwhile, Chewy Inc.'s share price fell more than 8% despite strong reporting. The online pet store reported 24% revenue growth in the third financial quarter. The company's net loss in the quarter ended October 31 was $ 32.2 million against a loss of $ 32.8 million in the same period a year earlier.

Peloton Interactive fell 5.4% after Credit Suisse downgraded its recommendation to neutral from above the market.

European equities closed lower

Britain's FTSE 100 shed 0.8%, Germany's DAX shed 0.01%, France's CAC 40 shed 0.7%, Spain's IBEX 35 shed 0.5% and Italy's FTSE MIB shed 0.6%.

Air France-KLM shares lost 3.4%. The airline said it had paid the French authorities € 500 million in debt repayment totaling € 4 billion. In addition, Air France-KLM agreed with the country's authorities to change the debt repayment schedule: if earlier it had to pay off the debt in full in May 2023, now it will be able to pay it off until May 2025.

Germany's Daimler Truck Holding AG, a truck maker, rose 10.7% in its second trading session after divesting from Daimler. JPMorgan analysts have set the target price for the company's shares at 48 euros per share, while Bank of America has set a different price, 40 euros. At the same time, Daimler AG's value fell 0.3% yesterday.

The capitalization of the German software developer SAP AG increased by 2.6% after analysts at UBS improved the recommendation on the stock of the company from neutral to buy.

Australian biopharmaceutical company CSL has confirmed that it is in talks to buy the Swiss drug manufacturer Vifor Pharma. Vifor Pharma shares jumped 18.5%.

Credit Suisse Group AG on Monday announced a structural reorganization and appointed new chief executives for its core divisions. The structure of the bank from next year will consist of 4 main business divisions and 4 regional divisions. Credit Suisse lost 1.8%.

Shares in British mining company Rio Tinto fell 0.1%. The company will write off $ 2.3 billion in debt from the Mongolian government to finally move forward with the expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi gold-copper project.

The market is awaiting meetings of the world's largest central banks scheduled for this week.

The Federal Reserve System (FRS) is holding a two-day meeting on December 14-15, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England will release their decisions on December 16, the Bank of Japan will hold a meeting on December 17.

The ECB is expected to discuss at the upcoming meeting the future prospects for its asset repurchase programs, while the Fed may decide to step up the pace of its quantitative easing (QE) program, which it launched in November.

The Bank of England is likely to keep monetary policy parameters unchanged, as the latest GDP data proved disappointing, and in addition, the country's authorities are introducing new restrictions to contain the spread of COVID-19.

The UK National Statistical Office (ONS) on Friday reported a slowdown in the country's GDP growth in October to 4.6% on an annualized basis from 5.3% a month earlier.

The statistics released on Monday showed an acceleration in the growth of wholesale prices in Germany in November to a record 16.6% in annual terms. As noted by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis), the growth of wholesale prices accelerated compared to 15.2% in October against the background of higher prices for raw materials and intermediate goods.

EUR/USD: Widening gap between the US dollar and Euro

Analysts said that serious problems in the EUR/USD pair are caused by an imbalance between both currencies. Bank of America experts point to the excessive overvaluation of the US dollar and the lack of attention to the euro.

Before the Fed meeting, the issue of a fair assessment of the euro and the US dollar is extremely relevant. According to Bank of America reports, the US currency turned out to be overvalued by investors this month, while the euro is undervalued. Analysts believe that this upsets the balance in the EUR/USD pair.

The calculations by Bank of America's currency strategists demonstrate that the current greenback estimate is 0.7 points higher than the long-term average, while the euro is 1.1 points lower. These indicators are negatively affected by rising inflation expectations in the United States (up to 6%) and extremely high inflation, which has reached peak values for the last almost 40 years. The current situation increases the degree of tension between the US dollar and the euro. On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair experienced noticeable volatility, trading around the level of 1.1270.

By the middle of this week, the US dollar maintained its growth, unlike the euro amid expectations of the most important Fed meeting. Despite the growing tension, the dynamics of the American currency are almost unchanged in relation to other key currencies. The euro, on the contrary, has to make a lot of efforts to stay afloat. Experts are afraid of increasing dissonance in the EUR/ USD pair, although there are no serious prerequisites for this.

In anticipation of the Fed meeting, many analysts turned to the Fed's updated dot forecast, the so-called dot plot. Experts carefully analyze the data presented in order to predict the rate of increase in the key rate in 2022. According to the previous dot plot published in September 2021, the federal funds rate should be increased once (until December 2022). However, a lot has changed now, so the markets are confident that in the coming year the rate will be raised twice (25 bp at each meeting).

Bank of America experts believe that the regulator is able to surprise the markets and raise rates following the meeting on Wednesday, December 15. The implementation of such a scenario will lead to a shock and force you to radically rebuild. On the contrary, if the completion of the asset purchase program goes twice as fast, that is, it will be completely curtailed in March 2022, then the markets will remain calm. It can be recalled that this option is the most expected.

At the same time, there is a possibility of another scenario: if the regulator does not raise rates at the current meeting, then it will have to be done twice (by 0.50%) in March next year. The reason for this decision is the overheating of the US labor market. Therefore, most market participants expect the regulator to raise rates in the second half of 2022. At the same time, many investors do not rule out a weakening of inflation next year, despite the persistence of price pressure.

A surprise for the market may be the updated December "dot" forecasts of the Fed (dot plot), which allow for the probability of a threefold rate hike in 2022. The implementation of such a scenario will help the US dollar strengthen its position, but stock markets will be under pressure.

US dollar continues its growth

The US dollar celebrates the victory after the meeting of the Fed, which the markets were looking forward to. It managed to rise and continue the upward trend, despite a temporary decline.

The growth of this currency accelerated after the decision of the regulator, which announced the preservation of the interest rate and the completion of incentive programs. It can be recalled that the Fed expected to leave the key rate at 0-0.25% per annum and announced its readiness to double the pace of curtailing the asset repurchase program (from the previous $15 billion to $ 30 billion per month). The implementation of these measures is planned from January next year. According to preliminary calculations, such rates of QE reduction will allow the central bank to fully complete the program by March 2022.

According to Fed chairman Jerome Powell, the early elimination of stimulus programs is necessary because of extremely high inflation. Fed representatives believe that the acceleration of inflation in the United States and the strengthening of inflationary pressure amid a prolonged labor shortage significantly affect economic forecasts and the current monetary policy. It is worth noting that the regulator kept rates near zero until the situation in the US labor market improved.

Representatives of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) presented an updated forecast on the trajectory of rates, which implies their threefold increase in 2022-2023. Along with this, the authorities expect a gradual decrease in inflation.

Experts emphasize that the regulator's forecasts on rates are not a pre-approved plan. This process is determined by the current economic situation, according to which it is adjusted. Against this background, Fed officials came to the conclusion that the most appropriate is a gradual increase in rates.

According to experts, the rapid growth of the USD after the Fed meeting occurred against the backdrop of a pronounced "hawkish" position of the regulator. Representatives of the Federal Reserve predict a sharper increase in rates than the market expected. In view of this, US assets rose significantly: the US dollar continued its upward trend, and the leading S&P 500 index interrupted a two-day decline.

The current situation favourably affected the EUR/USD pair, which was trading at the level of 1.1284 on Thursday morning. Like the American one, the European currency also felt confident, gradually gaining momentum. It tried to consolidate in the current positions, but to no avail. As a result, the single currency fell to low values.

The near-term prospects of the US dollar are quite optimistic. Many experts agree that the Fed helped the US dollar to rise, due to which it received a growth impulse. Analysts said that this trend will continue, since it has enough resources to withstand the difficulties that arise.

Forecast for AUD/USD on December 17, 2021

Yesterday, the Australian dollar traded in a range of 80 points, it closed the day by gaining 15 points, which is not very impressive with the fall of the US dollar index by 0.36%. At the moment, the price is between two levels: 0.7171 and 0.7227. Now the breakthrough above the upper level of the 0.7227 range will open the target along the MACD line at 0.7285, consolidating below 0.7171 can send the price to the 0.7065 level, which was not reached at the beginning of the week.

On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator formed a divergence with the price. At the moment, the price is staying above the balance indicator line (red moving one), which retains the bulls' advantage. The situation turns out to be twofold, therefore the technical signal levels 0.7171 and 0.7227 acquire the main attention and the main role. The bears' first target at 0.7130 is the MACD line on H4.

US indices closed lower

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% on Friday and ended trading at 35365.44 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 1.03% to 4620.64 points.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite lost less than 0.1% to 15169.68 points.

By the end of the week, the Dow fell 1.7%, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 3%.

Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve System (FRS) decided to accelerate the pace of winding down its asset-buying program and signaled its readiness to raise rates several times next year. In addition, the Bank of England was the first among the world's leading central banks to raise its key rate to 0.25% from 0.1%.

Meanwhile, Andrew Brenner of NatAlliance Securities believes that the sharp decline in the US stock market was caused rather not by fears of tightening monetary policy, but by other reasons. In particular, he points out that Friday was the so-called Quadruple Witching Day, when index and stock futures and options expire. On this day, there is often increased volatility in the market.

A strong decline on Friday was demonstrated by securities of financial companies. Quotes from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell 3.9%, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. fell 2.3%, quotations of the payment system American Express Co. fell 1.8%, quotations of Visa Inc. dropped by 1.2%.

General Motors shares tumbled 5.5% on news of the unexpected resignation of Dan Amman, head of the self-driving car business.

American chain restaurant operator Darden Restaurants fell 5%. The company released strong quarterly earnings, but gave a weak annual forecast and said its CEO, Eugene Lee, will step down next May.

Johnson & Johnson's capitalization fell 2.8% after the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that citizens get vaccinated with Pfizer or Moderna coronavirus vaccines instead of J&J vaccines because of the risk of blood clots.

Meanwhile, FedEx Corp. jumped 5% in trading after one of the world's largest transportation and logistics companies beat market expectations in adjusted earnings and revenues and improved its full-year forecast.

Forecast for GBP/USD on December 21, 2021

The pound approached the first target level of 1.3160 by 34 points by the end of Monday. The success of the bears, that is, overcoming this support, will open the second target at 1.3012 - the October 2019 high. The Marlin Oscillator is declining in the negative area. The general trend is downward.

On yesterday's four-hour chart, the strength of the resistance of the MACD indicator line was confirmed - the price turned down from it (arrow). The Marlin Oscillator is developing in the negative area. We look forward to further declines.

Forecast for USD/JPY on December 21, 2021

At the end of yesterday, the situation with regard to the yen had practically not changed - the price continued to stay between the support of the trend line of the price channel at 113.22 and the MACD indicator line at 113.96. On December 15, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator reversed from the zero line, now it moves horizontally below it - this is the market's preparation for a decline. Also, stock indices fell yesterday: S&P 500 -1.14%, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.30%, which helps the pair USD/JPY to develop a downward movement. The target of the decline at 110.80 is the price channel line of the higher timeframe.

On the four-hour scale, the price is strongly supported by the MACD indicator line. Accordingly, consolidating below it becomes the main condition for the formation of a medium-term fall. The direct signal will be the price crossing below the level of 113.22.

The Marlin Oscillator has crossed the border with the growth territory, but this may turn out to be a false signal.470

US shares higher at close of trade; Dow Jones up 1.60%

At the close in New York, the Dow Jones climbed 1.60%, the S&P 500 gained 1.78% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.40%.

In the leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were shares of Nike Inc, which rose in price by 9.65 points (6.15%), to close at 166.63. Boeing Co rose 5.86% or 11.04 points to end at 199.52. American Express Company added 3.22% or 5.02 points to close at 160.91.

The biggest losers were Merck & Company Inc, which fell 1.14% or 0.87 points to end the session at 75.54. Verizon Communications Inc rose 0.58% or 0.31 points to end at 52.78, while Johnson & Johnson was down 0.32% or 0.54 points to 167. , 21.

The growth leaders among the S&P 500 index components at the end of today's trading were Citrix Systems Inc, which gained 13.63% to 95.05, Micron Technology Inc, which gained 10.54% to close at 90.68, and also Expedia Inc, which was up 9.14% to end at 177.27.

The biggest losers were General Mills Inc, which fell 4.03% to close at 65.06. The Kroger Company shed 3.60% to end the session at 43.87. Pfizer Inc was down 3.39% to 58.95.

The leaders of growth among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were shares of Reliance Global Group Inc, which rose in price by 78.69% to the level of 5.450, Biofrontera Inc, which gained 44.75%, to close at 11.03, as well as shares IsoPlexis Corp rose 40.82% to end at 6.90.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of shares that went up (2,671) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (604), while the quotes of 88 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2889 companies rose in price, 880 declined, and 215 remained at the level of the previous close.

Aldeyra The shares fell to a 52-week low, shedding 50.91%, 3.63 points to trade at 3.50. Biofrontera Inc rose to an all-time high, gaining 44.75%, 3.41 points, to trade at 11.03. DBV Technologies shares fell to historic lows, down 48.52%, 1.310 points, and ended trading at 1.390. CytomX Therapeutics Inc fell to a 52-week low, down 40.00%, 2.580 points to trade at 3.870.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the value of S&P 500 options trading, was down 8.13% to trade at 21.01.

Gold Futures for February delivery was down 0.28% or 5.05 to $ 1,789.55 a troy ounce. Elsewhere, WTI crude for February delivery rose 3.92%, or 2.69, to $ 71.30 a barrel. Futures contract for Brent oil for February delivery was flat 0.00%, or 0.00, to trade at $ 74.03 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, the EUR / USD pair was up 0.02% to hit 1.1286, while the USD / JPY was up 0.01% to hit 114.10.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.10% at 96.445.

Forecast for EUR/USD on December 23, 2021

Yesterday, the euro decided to choose an upward direction, intending to complicate and lengthen the horizontal movement, which began on November 29-30. There are about 20 points until the resistance of the MACD line (1.1363), and without breaking the main scenario and its own sideways movement, it is likely that the price will turn down from this resistance. If it overcomes the 1.1363 level, the main scenario will change to a price reversal from the target level of 1.1415. But if the price settles above 1.1415, then an alternative scenario will take effect with the price rising to the target level of 1.1572 (the January 2019 high).

An interesting situation develops on the Marlin Oscillator. Yesterday's exit of the signal line from the rectangular area of consolidation, marked with a gray area, repeats the exit of the signal line from the same consolidation on October 28 - it is marked with a red oval. And, as you can see, after the signal line returned to the range, the price fell.

On the four-hour chart, the price settled above the MACD line, Marlin is confidently rising in the positive area - the situation is upward. Probably, the price will decide to test the strength of the resistance range of 1.1363-1.1415.

Forecast for AUD/USD on December 23, 2021

The Australian dollar approached the resistance of 0.7227 for the second time in the last five days. According to one of the scenarios we are considering, the price may turn down from the resistance today. A modified, but also a scenario for a reversal, assumes a price reversal from the MACD line in the area of 0.7275. Settling above 0.7275 reveals the growth scenario for the aussie to hit the first target at 0.7414. Returning to the area below 0.7171 will open the target at 0.7065.

On the four-hour chart, the price is in an upward position. The planned reversals of the price and the oscillator cannot yet clarify the situation of the higher scale, we are waiting for a signal from the target levels - which one the price could overcome.

Pound sterling reached the high and the small pullback was not critical

The British currency has confidently moved to the next peaks by the end of this week and successfully reached its high. A slight decline did not prevent it from enjoying the victory, which is not the last in the list of this currency.

Yesterday, it managed to rise to a one-month high against the US dollar amid improved risk appetite as concerns about the Omicron coronavirus strain eased. On this wave, the British currency reached the psychologically significant level of 1.3400 and further moved up. Such growth was recorded for the first time since November 23 of this year in view of the US dollar's temporary collapse. According to MUFG Bank analysts, the increased risk appetite negatively affected the American currency and gave a head start to the British one. However, they believe that the prospects for raising interest rates in the United States in 2022 will significantly support the USD.

The pound tried to rise previously, especially before the meeting of the Bank of England. Short bursts of growth did not make significant changes in the dynamics of the pound. However, the situation has now stabilized. On Friday morning, the GBP/USD pair was around the level of 1.3404, but could not hold its gained positions and remained in the range of 1.3392-1.3393.

Analysts said that the pound has risen to the upper border of the wide range, wherein it has been since this month started. Many experts believe that the current dynamics of this currency are caused by technical rather than macroeconomic factors. Analysts pay attention to the overbought GBP, the fact of which is putting pressure on buyers. The current situation forms the so-called "swing" between sellers and buyers. This contributes to the transition of the GBP/USD pair into a downward spiral, where the nearest target is the level of 1.3290.

Meanwhile, the UK's macroeconomic data did not affect the dynamics of the pound very much. Some of them, particularly the rates of economic growth, were revised upward (from the previous 23.6% to the current 24.2%). UK GDP data for the third quarter of 2021 turned out to be slightly worse than forecasted, but quite acceptable – economic growth slowed down by 6.8%. A relatively calm economic environment favorably influenced the dynamics of the pound. According to analysts, the closest prospects for the pound look positive. Based on January 2022 forecast, the British currency may rise.