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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

This is a discussion on Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Aussie and Kiwi skyrocket. Commodity currencies rise and US dollar tumbles Commodity currencies grow sharply at the beginning of the ...

      
   
  1. #1211
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    Aussie and Kiwi skyrocket. Commodity currencies rise and US dollar tumbles

    Commodity currencies grow sharply at the beginning of the week. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were supported by a surge in risk appetite.

    In anticipation of the end of the lockdown in China's largest financial center, Shanghai, the demand for stocks rose.

    Quarantine restrictions have been in effect in the city of 25 million people since the end of March. Most of them are expected to be lifted by June 1.

    At the same time, optimism about global economic growth triggered a surge in high-risk commodity currencies. For example, the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose to their highest levels in weeks.

    The Aussie jumped by 0.7% this morning to 70.92 cents.

    Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar soared 1.1% to its highest since May 5 at 64.62 cents.

    The Australian and New Zealand dollars managed to recoup some of the losses suffered this quarter. Both currencies have had the worst performance among the Group of Ten since April.

    The Aussie and Kiwi have been under pressure from the strong US dollar over the past few weeks. Amid aggressive rate hikes in the US, the greenback index rose to a new 20-year high of 105,010 this month.

    However, at the beginning of the new working week, the US currency is trading at 2% below the record level amid the return of appetite for risky assets.On Monday morning, its rate fell by 0.1% from Friday's close to 102.790 points.

    By the end of last week, the US dollar showed the first decrease in 7 weeks. The weakness of the greenback allowed the Aussie to make its first weekly rise since the end of March.

    Since the beginning of the week, the Aussie has received a little boost from the center-left Labor Party's victory in Australia's federal election on Saturday.

    The good news for the Australian currency is that this is the first change of government in almost 10 years. The bad news is that the new government is unlikely to change the pace of interest rate hikes in Australia.

    A fresh comment from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent adds to the pessimism about monetary policy.

    On Monday morning, the official hinted at a gradual reduction in the Australian Central Bank's balance sheet for this and the coming year:

    – This year's asset reduction plan calls for only $4 billion in bond redemptions, and we expect the figure to rise to $13 billion in 2023.

    This abundance of funding indicates that the target money rates will remain low for a few years.

    As for the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the base interest rate may rise as early as this week.

    Markets are now expecting the RBNZ to raise the rate on Wednesday by 50 bps to 2%. The regulator's hawkish scenario adds momentum to the NZD/USD pair, which is now at a 3-week peak.

    Thanks to the return of risk sentiment to the stock markets the AUD/USD pair is also showing great movements. It is firmly above the 21-day moving average this morning.

    Bulls need to close above this level to continue the uptrend in the AUD/USD pair because this level coincides with the resistance line of the downtrend.

    If the Aussie dollar continues to be in demand in the near future, it might lead it to test the high of 0.7135 from May 6.

    If the AUD/USD does not manage to keep above the 21-day moving average by the end of the day, bears will return to the market and pull the Aussie back to Friday's low of 0.7002.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  2. #1212
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    Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on May 24, 2022

    Economic calendar for May 24
    Preliminary data on business activity indices for May in Europe, Britain, and the United States will be published today. A widespread decline in indicators is expected, which may lead to variable fluctuations in the market.

    Time targeting

    Business activity indices in the EU - 08:00 UTC

    Business activity indices in Britain - 08:30 UTC

    Business activity indices in the US - 13:45 UTC

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on May 24
    In this situation, overheating of long positions can lead to a pullback, while the upward interest will still prevail in the market. The next round of growth is expected after the price holds above the 1.0700 mark.

    An alternative scenario will be considered by traders in case the price returns below the 1.0600 mark in a four-hour period. In this case, a signal of completion of the corrective move may occur.

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on May 24
    The previously passed level of 1.2500 currently plays the role of a support in case of a pullback in the market. The subsequent increase in the volume of long positions is expected at the time of holding the price above 1.2600. In this case, buyers will have the possibility of further growth towards the level of 1.2700.

    If the pullback drags on, and the quote needs to stay below the level of 1.2500, the first signal of the completion of the corrective move may appear.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  3. #1213
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    Analysis and trading tips for GBP/USD on May 26

    Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

    GBP/USD reaching 1.2545 prompted a buy signal in the market, which led to a 10 pip increase as the MACD line was just starting to move above zero. However, the quote turned down immediately after and retested 1.2545, forming a sell signal. This time, it provoked a 25-pip decrease in the pair and reached 1.2518, where movement became limited as the MACD was already far from zero. In the afternoon, another sell signal appeared at 1.2545, resulting in another 20-pip decrease. Its fourth test then led to a buy signal, which prompted a 50-pip increase as the MACD was moving above zero.

    GBP/USD reached new monthly highs after traders did not find anything new in the minutes of the Fed's May meeting. Contrary to what was expected, there were no hints that the central bank will raise rates again at the next meetings.

    However, today, it is likely that the pound will turn down as there are no statistics scheduled to be released in the UK. In the afternoon, data on US jobless claims and second estimate of the 1st quarter GDP will support the dollar, while the report on pending home sales may strengthen the emerging trend in the pair provided that its value turns out better than expected.

    For long positions:

    Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.2575 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2610 (thicker green line on the chart). There is a chance for a rally today because there is no scheduled statistics to be released. However, note that when buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.2553, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2575 and 1.2610.

    For short positions:

    Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.2553 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2516. Pressure is likely to return if there is no bullish activity in the market before and after the release of the US GDP report for the 1st quarter. However, note that when selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.2575, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2553 and 1.2516.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  4. #1214
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    Major altcoins suffer losses​​​​​​​

    On Thursday, bitcoin dived to $28,900 and eventually closed at $29,117. At the time of writing on Friday, BTC fell to $28,982.

    Since Monday, bitcoin has tried to break out of the 7-week long downtrend, but remained near the $30,000 mark. The leading cryptocurrency lost about 60% since it surpassed $69,000 and reached an all-time high in November 2021.

    Crypto market lossesOver the past 24 hours, BTC lost about 2%. Howevre, major altcoins suffered more severe losses. STEPN's native token nosedived by 37.9% after its developer halted its services in China due to a demand from local authorities. STEPN is a move-to-earn lifestyle app which uses GPS and allows users to earn rewards in crypto by running, walking, or jogging outside. The company will stop providing GPS services to users in mainland China from July 15.

    Solana fell by 7.15% to $45. The altcoin lost more than 17% last week. Among other cryptocurrencies, Ethereum decreased by 6.16% to $1,847, BNB slumped by 5.03% to $311.86, Cardano declined by 4.59% to $0.487, and Dogecoin slid down by 4.83% to $0.0791. The best performing cryptocurrency was Chain, which jumped by 46.6% on Thursday.

    According to CoinGecko, the market cap of the cryptocurrency market decreased by 3.22% to $1.22 trillion yesterday. The Bitcoin Dominance Index reached 45.74%.

    Lengthy crypto downtren

    Since the beginning of 2022, the digital assets market dropped sharply as investors shifted away from risky assets. BTC lost about 37% since January, while Ethereum dived by 48%. The market cap of the cryptomarket declined to $1.3 trillion from $3 trillion in November 2021.

    The war in Ukraine and rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe have pushed the crypto market downwards.

    Another bearish factor for crypto is the growing dominance of the United States in the digital assets market, reflecting the currency war between the US and China, which began in 2014. The US crypto dominance was reinforced by China's crypto ban in 2021

    The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is also pushing the crypto market downwards. According to crypto market analysts, the Fed's interest rate hike has contributed to the downtrend. Investors are concerned that rising inflation would force the regulator to increase interest rates even higher in the future.

    Earlier, Fed chairman Jerome Powell stated that the US central bank plans to act decisively to bring inflation back to the target level of 2%, despite short term recession risks.

    In May, the Federal Reserve increased the key interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.75-1%. The US regulator hiked the rate by 25 basis points at its March meeting. It was the first back-to-back rate rise by the Fed since 2006 and the first 50 basis points increase since 2000

    Light at the end of the tunnel?

    Despite bitcoin's woes, JP Morgan strategists estimated BTC's fair value at $38,000, which is 30% higher than its current price of about $29,000. Furthermore, JPMorgan classified digital assets and hedge funds as its "preferred" alternative asset classes.

    The bank's strategists also stated that BTC and digital assets have great upside potential after its recent fall.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  5. #1215
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    Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 30/05/2022​​​​​​​

    Although the single European currency demonstrated good activity on Friday, showing a movement of fifty points, first up, then down, in fact, it was a stagnation. Which, in general, is not surprising, given that macroeconomic data was not published. And there were no serious news reports that could somehow affect the market either. The beginning of the new trading week will be much less active. And it's not just a completely empty macroeconomic calendar. After all, it is a holiday in the United States to honor Memorial Day. And in the absence of American traders, activity in the market is coming to naught. Like it or not, American investors control most of the capital circulating in financial markets. So the stagnation will become more pronounced, and the magnitude of the movement will be noticeably smaller than on Friday.

    The EURUSD currency pair, despite the scale of the correction, adheres to an upward move. During this time, the euro exchange rate has strengthened by more than 400 points, which is considered a strong price change.

    The RSI H4 technical instrument is moving in the upper area of the 50/70 indicator, which indicates an upward interest among traders. RSI D1 settled above the 50 line, this is a signal of an elongated correction.

    Alligator H4 is signaling an upward trend, MA moving lines are directed upwards. The Alligator D1 indicator has changed direction from a downward cycle to an upward one. The moving MA lines are directed upwards.

    Expectations and prospects:

    There is a resistance area of 1.0800/1.0850 on the way, which can hold back the bulls. For this reason, the tactic of working on the rebound is considered as the most optimal strategy. In the future, this may lead to the completion of the corrective move.

    An alternative scenario considers the prolongation of the correction. This signal will be relevant only if the price stays above 1.1850 in the daily period.

    Complex indicator analysis has a buy signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the correction. In the medium term, indicators changed to buy indicators due to a protracted correction.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  6. #1216
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    Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on May 31, 2022

    Economic calendar for May 31

    Today, traders are focused on the preliminary assessment of inflation in Europe. It is predicted that the consumer price index will continue to grow from 7.4% to 7.7%, which is a negative factor for the EU economy. Further inflation growth may stimulate the ECB to more aggressive tactics of tightening monetary policy. In simple words, the regulator may still move to an interest rate hike based on the growth of inflation. Thus, based on the logic of the ECB's further steps, this news may lead to an increase in the value of the euro in the medium term.

    A short-term reaction to rising inflation could lead to a weakening of the euro.

    Time targeting

    EU Inflation - 09:00 UTC

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on May 31

    The area of resistance 1.0800/1.0850 is still putting pressure on buyers, which may lead to the completion of the corrective movement. If expectations are confirmed, the euro rate may return to the value of 1.0636.

    An alternative scenario considers the prolongation of the correction. This signal will be relevant only if the price holds above 1.0850 in the daily period.

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on May 31

    In this situation, special attention is paid to the stage of stagnation within the amplitude of 1.2600/1.2700. This fluctuation may indicate the process of accumulation of trade forces, which will eventually lead to a local acceleration. Based on the assumption, the best trading tactic is the method of breaking through one or another stagnation border with confirmation in a four-hour period.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  7. #1217
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    Oil holds steady in positive territory for six straight months and extends its rally into summer​​​​​​​

    On Wednesday, global oil prices are steadily increasing after a short decline a day earlier. The fall in oil prices on Tuesday was caused by speculations that some producers want to suspend Russia's participation in the OPEC+ production deal, as well as by new sanctions against Russia.

    At the moment of writing, August Brent oil futures have gained 0.36% and are now hovering near $116.02 per barrel. A day earlier, Brent lost 1.7% and declined to $115.60 per barrel.

    WTI oil futures for July rose by 0.44% to $115.17 per barrel on Wednesday. Yesterday, the futures contracts fell by 0.35% to $114.67 per barrel.

    So, on Tuesday, oil depreciated by about 2% after a report that some OPEC members are exploring the idea of suspending Russia's participation in the deal over the conflict in Ukraine. The key factors in this case are the Western sanctions imposed on Russia and the partial embargo on Russian crude imports. This step will notably limit Russia's ability to ramp up oil production. The next OPEC+ meeting will take place on June 2, 2022.

    In 2021, Russia, one of the world's top three crude producers, made a deal with OPEC and 9 other non-OPEC members to gradually increase output every month. Yet, amid anti-Russian sanctions, analysts predict an 8% drop in oil production.

    Oil quotes were steadily rising until the news about Russia's possible suspension appeared in the media. In the early trade on Tuesday, Brent futures for July jumped above $124 per barrel for the first time since March 9.

    Experts suggest that if the cancellation of Russia's membership is confirmed, the price of oil may drop to $100.

    Today, markets are focused on supply prospects amid a ban on Russian oil imports to the EU. On May 31, the EU members agreed on the sixth package of sanctions which includes a partial embargo on oil and petroleum products imported by sea.

    The sanctions ban local companies from providing insurance to Russian oil tankers. This means that from now on, Russia is isolated from the largest export market.

    Restrictions will deal a heavy blow to oil deliveries to Asia which may disrupt Russia's plan to refocus on exports to China and India.

    This ban can seriously hit the economy of Russia as the majority of European companies will refuse to transport oil without insurance. The effectiveness of this restriction was previously tested on Iran and proved to be successful.

    Many European countries involved in shipping have already expressed concern about the ban on insurance for Russian oil tankers. So, the EU decided to implement it gradually within the next six months.

    The official statement about the new restrictive measures against Moscow is expected in the coming days.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  8. #1218
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    Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 2, 2022

    Economic calendar for June 2

    Today is a holiday in the UK, but this will not cause a decrease in volatility in financial markets. The focus will be on the ADP report on employment in the United States, which is predicted to grow by 295,000 in May. This is a positive signal for the labor market if the data is confirmed.

    Almost simultaneously with the report, ADP will publish weekly data on jobless claims in the US, where they predict a reduction in their volume. This is a positive factor for the US labor market.

    Statistics details:

    The volume of continuing claims for benefits may be reduced from 1.346 million to 1.308 million.

    The volume of initial claims for benefits may remain at the level of 210,000.

    Time targeting

    ADP report - 12:15 UTC

    US Jobless Claims - 12:30 UTC

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 2

    In order to confirm the signal to sell the euro, the quote needs to stay below the level of 1.0636 for at least a four-hour period. In this case, traders will have high chances of moving towards the values of 1.0570–1.0500.

    Otherwise, the market may experience another stagnation with a local pullback relative to the pivot point.

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 2

    A stable holding of the price below the level of 1.2500 may lead to a subsequent decline towards the value of 1.2350. This move will indicate a gradual process of recovery of dollar positions relative to the recent correction.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  9. #1219
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    Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 3, 2022

    Economic calendar for June 3

    Retail sales data in the euro area is expected for publication today. Forecasts assumed growth in figures, which may provide local support for the euro before the American trading session.

    The main macroeconomic event of the outgoing week is considered to be the report of the United States Department of Labor, which predicts by no means bad indicators. The unemployment rate could drop from 3.6% to 3.5%, and 325,000 new jobs could be created outside of agriculture. We have a strong US labor market, which could support the US dollar.

    Time targeting

    EU retail sales - 09:00 UTC

    US Department of Labor Report - 12:30 UTC

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 3

    Based on the recent price change, we can assume that the market has a local signal that the euro is overbought in the short term. This can lead to a slowdown in the upward cycle followed by a rebound. The price area of 1.0770/1.0800 is considered as resistance on the way of buyers.

    The scenario of the prolongation of the corrective move will be considered by traders if the price stays above 1.0850 for at least a four-hour period.

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 3

    In this situation, traders consider two possible scenarios at once:

    The first one comes from the preservation of rising interest in the market, where holding the price above 1.2600 can return the quote to the resistance area of 1.2670/1.2720.

    The second scenario considers the possibility of completing a corrective move, where holding the price below 1.2530 will lead to another attempt to break through the support level of 1.2500. The largest increase in the volume of short positions will occur after the price holds below 1.2450, which will confirm the signal about the completion of the correction.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  10. #1220
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    Most of the Asian indices gain 0.67–2.2%​​​​​​​

    Most of the Asian indices gained between 0.67 and 2.2%. Thus, the Chinese and Hong Kong indices showed the biggest increases. Shanghai Composite added 1.05%, Shenzhen Composite increased by 2.21%, and Hang Seng Index surged by 1.37%. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.67% while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.32%. South Korean stock exchanges are not working today. However, the Korean KOSPI ended last week in a positive area with an increase of 0.44%.

    The main reason for investors' optimism was strong statistical data from China. Thus, the index of business activity in the service sector last month rose to 41.4 points from April's mark of 36.2 points. At the same time, the value of this indicator is still below the 50-point mark, indicating a decline in business activity.

    The gradual lifting of restrictive measures in the capital and other major cities of China, caused by the new wave of COVID-19, is also encouraging.

    Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. gained 9.7%, Meituan added 8.3%, and Anta Sports Products, Ltd. soared by 5.5%. Quotes of BYD Co., Ltd. rose slightly less by 5.2%, and Alibaba Group Holding, Ltd. climbed by 2%.

    In Japan, the country's central bank reports the intention to continue the soft monetary policy. According to the management of the regulator, at this stage, the rise in prices in the country is caused by individual factors, such as an increase in the cost of energy. The authorities believe that stimulus measures will lead to an increase in wages, and inflation will become more stable.

    Among the companies included in the Nikkei 225 indicator, the shares of Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd. gained 6.4%, Hitachi Zosen Corp. grew by 5.5%, and Idemitsu Kosan Co, Ltd. soared by 5%. Slightly less growth was shown by Fast Retailing securities, which gained 2.5%.

    At the same time, SoftBank Group stock decreased by 0.4%, and Sony dropped by 9%.

    The capitalization of the largest Australian companies decreased. BHP lost 0.9%, and Rio Tinto dropped by 0.2%.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

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