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USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast
Today, following the release of data showing a February slowdown in the national Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Japanese yen continues to trade with a negative tone, creating uncertainty in the market.
The data shows that Japan's national CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year in February, down from 4% in the previous month. Although this slowdown was expected, it will likely influence Japan's economic policy. The nationwide core CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 3.0% compared to a year earlier, slightly above the expected 2.9%, but still below the previous 3.2% reading.
Interestingly, preliminary results from the spring labor negotiations (Shunto) indicate that Japanese companies have largely agreed to substantial wage increases for a third consecutive year. This could boost consumer spending and maintain inflationary pressure, thereby providing room for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates further.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the Shunto results align with expectations, and that the central bank will continue its policy until it is clearly time to act. Achieving the 2% inflation target is important for the BoJ's long-term credibility, and the bank is prepared to adjust policy depending on economic and price conditions.
Investors are confident that strong wage growth in Japan could stimulate consumer spending and support inflation, giving the BoJ scope for rate hikes in 2025.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has announced plans to cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points each before the end of the year, due in part to a downward revision in growth forecasts amid ongoing trade policy uncertainty. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that tariffs could restrain economic growth, posing additional challenges for the U.S. economy.
Consequently, rising demand for the U.S. dollar, supported by the Fed's rate cut projections, is helping USD/JPY maintain intraday gains above the key 149.00 level.
However, the divergence between expected Fed easing and BoJ tightening creates a standoff in the pair, limiting the dollar's upside and providing support to the lower-yielding yen. This calls for caution when opening long positions on further USD/JPY growth.
Technical Outlook
A strong move above the 149.25–149.30 zone would allow USD/JPY to retest the psychological level of 150.00. A break above 150.15 could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing prices toward the interim level at 150.60, followed by 151.00, and ultimately the monthly high near 151.30.
On the other hand, the Asian session low near 148.60 now serves as immediate support. A drop below this level would accelerate the decline toward the weekly low of 148.20–148.15, reached on Thursday.
Further key support levels are located at 148.00 and 147.70—a break below these would open the way to 147.35 and 147.00, and eventually to the 146.55–146.50 area, which marks the lowest level since early October. This view is reinforced by oscillators on the daily chart, which remain in negative territory.
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XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast
Today, gold prices remain low but are holding above the psychological level of $3000, which serves as an important support.
News that emerged over the weekend indicates that U.S. President Donald Trump is planning a narrower and more targeted agenda on reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. This has increased investors' appetite for risk assets, set a positive tone in equity markets, and consequently undermined demand for the precious metal today.
At the same time, U.S. delegations are engaged in talks with Ukrainian officials and are planning meetings with Russian representatives. Earlier this month, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a 30-day pause in strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which may help ease tensions in the region.
The U.S. dollar is hovering near a 1.5-week high reached last week.
However, expectations that economic slowdown caused by tariffs may force the Fed to resume rate cuts are also limiting the downside in gold prices. This creates uncertainty, and it would be prudent to wait for a more significant decline before opening new short positions.
Adding to the uncertainty is the tense situation in the Middle East: Israel continues its strikes on Gaza, while Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched a ballistic missile at Israel, though it was successfully intercepted. These developments increase the risk of further conflict escalation in the region.
Today, traders should pay close attention to the release of PMI data, which will provide fresh insight into the state of the U.S. economy and may impact commodities. Also in focus is the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, due to be published on Friday.
From a technical perspective, the $3000 level may attract buyers, but a break below it could trigger technical selling, pushing gold prices down toward the $2980–2978 area. If the correction continues, the next support lies at $2956–2954.
On the other hand, last week's all-time high near $3057–3058 could act as the nearest resistance. Given that the daily RSI has exited overbought territory, renewed buying may become the next trigger for bulls, opening the way for the continuation of the uptrend observed over the past three months.
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US Market News Digest for March 25
S&P 500 surges to critical level of 5,769
Yesterday, the S&P 500 unexpectedly put on a show, jumping 1.76% to reach 5,769, a level last seen on January 13th. As if following a well-rehearsed script, the Marlin oscillator, like a disciplined performer, touched the boundary of bullish territory. This is top-tier synchronization: critical levels are being tested in unison, forming this very bifurcation point — where the price will either reverse course and plunge towards 5,516, or continue its bold ascent into the 5,881-5,910 range.
A close above 5,769 today would strengthen the case for further gains. However, if this session ends with a bearish black candlestick, bears are likely to start dragging the price lower, targeting the support level of 5,670. Meanwhile, the 4-hour chart shows that the Marlin oscillator remains in a downward channel, though still in positive territory, indicating a potential upside breakout. The Kruzenshtern line is also turning up, pointing to a possible short-term uptrend.
US stocks rally on hopes for softer tariff stance from Trump
Wall Street finally decided to reward investors, rallying strongly on a wave of optimism. What was the reason? The Trump administration seemed to have put on a mask of reason — hinting at a more cautious, measured approach to tariffs, potentially delaying or revising the planned April 2 hikes. As a result, the S&P 500 index jumped 1.8% to a two-week high and even surpassed its 200-day moving average at 5,752. The Dow Jones gained 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.3%. Tech stocks led the way, especially those that had taken a beating earlier in the year.
The stock market was also supported by strong economic data. The S&P Global US Services PMI spiked to 54.3 in March from 51.0 in February, more than offsetting a drop in the Manufacturing PMI, which fell to 49.8 from 52.7. Ten out of eleven S&P 500 sectors closed higher, with eight gaining more than 1.0%. Even the bond market joined the rally — the 10-year Treasury yield soared 8 basis points to 4.33%.
Trump's talk of sectoral tariff exemptions lifts US stock market despite lingering investor caution
US stock indices finally gave investors something to smile about. At the close of yesterday's session, the S&P 500 climbed 1.76%, while the Nasdaq 100 added a confident 2.27%. The optimism was driven by Donald Trump's comments. This time, he opted to loosen his grip a bit, announcing that not all tariffs set for April 2 would be applied across the board. In fact, some countries may be granted sectoral exemptions. The statement immediately stirred economic circles and, unsurprisingly, provided a solid boost to US equities. Still, analysts appear more focused on reading the tea leaves than offering clear direction.
Meanwhile, Chinese investors clearly do not share the US optimism. China's stock market continued its dizzying slide, as if to prove that gravity is no joke. The gauge of Chinese tech stocks in Hong Kong plummeted 3.8%, marking the steepest drop in three weeks. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Xiaomi Corp. led the losers' list: Xiaomi tumbled 6.6%, while Alibaba shed more than 3% after its chairman cautiously hinted at a possible bubble in data center construction.
Trump's auto and goods tariff exemptions calm markets, boost Magnificent Seven stocks
The financial storm may be abating. As the S&P 500 climbed to a three-week high on the back of Trump's softer tone on trade tariffs, banks and investment firms swiftly pivoted to the bullish camp. JP Morgan and Evercore insist that the worst sell-off of 2025 is behind us, while Bank of America says that capital flows are reversing course, with money coming back to the United States. Trump has rolled out a new tariff maneuver: a 25% tariff on anyone buying oil from Venezuela. It is clear that this measure could also be applied to Russia if it continues to stall on decisions regarding Ukraine.
Bank of America argues that capital flight to Europe was triggered by a 14% sell-off in the Magnificent Seven stocks. Tesla and other behemoths that had given up their gains suddenly looked attractive again. Their ratio to the broader market has fallen to its lowest level since late 2022. The White House has scrapped plans for new tariffs on imports of cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals starting April 2. Even if new tariffs do materialize, they will be selective. For now, the breeze of optimism is blowing back towards the United States.
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USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast
The Japanese yen remains under pressure today due to weak domestic economic data. In February, Japan's leading inflation indicator in the services sector rose by 3.0% year-over-year, slightly below the 3.1% increase recorded in January. This figure remains an important measure of inflation in Japan's service sector. Coupled with the upbeat sentiment in equity markets, this undermines the yen's safe-haven appeal.
However, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed his intention to continue raising interest rates if economic and price developments align with forecasts outlined in the BoJ's quarterly outlook report. Combined with rising wages, this supports expectations of further monetary policy tightening. Substantial wage increases for the third consecutive year reinforce expectations of additional rate hikes by the central bank.
Meanwhile, some selling pressure on the U.S. dollar is helping the USD/JPY pair remain above the 150.00 level.
On the other hand, the U.S. Federal Reserve last week hinted at two potential 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end. While the Fed raised its inflation forecast, it lowered the growth outlook due to uncertainties stemming from President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies. Trump is expected to announce new tariffs taking effect on April 2, adding further uncertainty to the markets. Additionally, he imposed a secondary tariff on Venezuela, stating that any country purchasing oil or gas from Venezuela will face a 25% duty when trading with the U.S.
Growing pessimism over the U.S. economy has led to declining consumer sentiment for the fourth consecutive month. The Conference Board's Expectations Index fell to 65.2 — its lowest level in 12 years — indicating a potential recession. This pressured the U.S. dollar and led to a pullback from its nearly three-week high.
Despite hawkish remarks by Fed Governor Adriana Kugler about slowing progress in returning inflation to the 2% target, dollar bulls failed to gain the necessary support. Several upcoming speeches from Fed officials may influence the dollar's performance. For short-term momentum in USD/JPY, attention should also be given to the U.S. Durable Goods Orders report, but the key focus will be on Friday's Core PCE Price Index, which will likely shape the pair's next major moves.
Technical Outlook
A breakout above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is considered a key bullish signal.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the daily chart is beginning to show positive momentum, pointing to potential further upside. However, the recent failure near the 151.00 level and a dip back below the psychological 150.00 mark warrant caution. Traders should wait for a solid confirmation above these levels before initiating new long positions to continue the pair's recovery.
The next leg higher could lift spot prices beyond the monthly high near 151.30 and toward the round 152.00 level.
Support Levels
On the other hand, the 149.55 level — yesterday's low — now offers immediate support. A break below this level could open the path toward 149.00, followed by stronger support around 148.78, which aligns with the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. A breach of this zone may tilt the bias in favor of the bears and lead to further losses toward 148.00 and beyond.
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US Market News Digest for March 28
Auto tariffs rattle markets: stocks under pressure, gold gains
The White House imposed 25% tariffs on automobiles and parts, triggering a sell-off in the auto manufacturing sector and broad declines in major stock indices. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closed lower. General Motors and Ford were hit hardest, with shares falling amid expectations of rising costs and weakening demand. A surge in gold prices added to the signal as investors rotated into safe-haven assets on growing concerns over deteriorating trade relations.
The current environment has heightened market volatility, opening short-term opportunities. Traders may look at pullbacks in the auto sector as speculative entry points. It is also worth tracking safe-haven flows into gold and bonds. If pressure persists, tech stocks could offer buy-the-dip opportunities.
Investors exit auto sector as recession fears mount
US indices fell once again following the announcement of new tariffs on automakers. Under normal circumstances, the market might have reacted positively to strong GDP data, but trade risks have overshadowed the macro picture. Investors are rapidly dumping auto stocks on fears that the trade war between the United States and other nations could escalate into a systemic crisis.
Markets are now highly sensitive to any official statements. For traders, this may present opportunities — sharp intraday swings create setups for short-term trades. For long-term investors, it could be time to reassess portfolio structure. Sectors that have held up better could become temporary points of interest. The key is to act with a clear understanding of risk.
Market awaits inflation data: uncertainty persists
Despite the newly imposed tariffs, the US stock market has avoided a deep sell-off. Indices are showing mixed performance. Investors are watching the news closely and holding back from major trades. Uncertainty continues to dominate the market — some are anticipating new support measures, while others expect worsening inflation data. The S&P 500 is moving sideways, while activity in certain sectors remains elevated.
In this environment, traders should focus on short-term positions and keep a close eye on key headlines. In particular, the upcoming inflation data will be critical as it could determine the direction of the market in the coming weeks. If the numbers come in below expectations, it could trigger a reversal. We offer the right tools to trade under such conditions: tight spreads, low commissions, and broad access to US equities.
S&P 500 under pressure as market awaits fresh catalyst
A continued decline in the S&P 500 is not just about tariffs — it also reflects slowing earnings growth among major corporations. Investors are cutting equity exposure, especially in the tech sector. The Magnificent Seven stocks no longer have the same upward pull on the market. Still, analysts believe this weakness is temporary — companies are adapting to the new environment, and a fresh market catalyst could emerge in the coming weeks.
Momentum remains muted for now, but that does not mean the market has lost its potential. Traders should track earnings from major firms and look for entry points following pullbacks. Both short-term trades and longer-term positioning can be considered, depending on the news cycle and earnings reactions.
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Gold: The New Crisis King? Best Quarter Since 1986 Amid Global Turmoil
Trump Shakes Up Markets: Stock Markets Panic as Trade War Threat
Stock markets around the world were thrown into chaos on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump's blunt remarks about his plans to extend tariffs to virtually every country added to the anxiety of investors already worried about the growing threat of a global trade conflict that could push the world economy into recession.
Tariffs for all: Hopes for easing have collapsed
During a conversation with reporters on board the presidential jet Air Force One, Trump made it clear: there will be no exceptions. These words have dashed all expectations that the tariffs could be partially limited. Already on Tuesday, he will receive recommendations on this issue, and on Wednesday, he will announce the starting levels of tariffs. On Thursday, it is expected that the introduction of tariffs on imported cars may be announced.
Investors flee to safe havens: gold and yen are growing
Amid growing uncertainty, market participants flocked to safe haven assets. The Japanese yen strengthened, government bonds became the object of increased demand, and gold soared in price, reaching record highs.
Futures in the minus: investors are losing confidence
Futures on the S&P 500 fell by 0.8%, continuing the decline that began on Friday. Nasdaq futures fell even deeper into the red — minus 1.4%. European indices also took a hit: EUROSTOXX 50 fell by 0.8%, and FTSE and DAX — by 0.5% each.
Brussels is ready for battle — and for dialogue
Germany, through Chancellor Olaf Scholz, announced that the European Union will not stand aside: retaliatory measures in the form of mirror tariffs are already being discussed. At the same time, behind the scenes, information appeared that Brussels is also considering an alternative scenario — a package of concessions that could be offered to the United States as a compromise.
Japanese market under attack: auto giants in deep decline
The biggest decline in the Asian region was shown by the Japanese Nikkei index, which fell by 4.1% — this is its worst performance in the last six months. The biggest losses were suffered by shares of automakers: they are in turmoil after Trump's statements about possible 25% tariffs on car imports to the United States.
Asian exchanges could not withstand the pressure
Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region opened the week with a noticeable minus. The MSCI index, which covers a wide range of stocks in the region (excluding Japan), fell by 1.9%. South Korea's KOSPI index suffered even more, falling by 3%, reflecting the panic of investors.
China is slightly up, but the market is not impressed
Amid the overall negative dynamics, Chinese "blue chips" from the CSI300 index showed a moderate decline of 1.0%. And even news of a slight increase in manufacturing activity in March, which coincided with analysts' forecasts, could not dispel the clouds over the Celestial Empire's exchanges.
Economists warn: tariffs will boomerang back to the US
Many experts are concerned that new tariffs could hurt not only the global economy, but also America itself. The impact could be especially noticeable in the context of the Federal Reserve's limited maneuvers, since rising inflation will make lower interest rates a less effective support tool.
Goldman Sachs revises forecast: recession is not over the horizon
Goldman Sachs has increased the probability of a recession in the US to 35%, compared to the previous estimate of 20%. According to the bank's analysts, Trump could announce a new round of trade restrictions as early as April 2. It is assumed that the average tariff on imports from all US trading partners will be around 15%.
Inflation is growing, consumption is weakening: alarming signals from macroeconomics
Publications on Friday added fuel to the fire. Core inflation in February rose above forecasts - an alarming sign for the Fed, which is forced to balance between rising prices and a slowing economy. At the same time, consumer spending came in below expectations, signaling a cooling in consumer activity.
Friday's Labor Market Data Could Be Crucial
Now all eyes are on Friday's March employment report, which could add to fears of a slowdown if the 140,000 job gains come in below the forecast. Also expected are data on manufacturing, services, trade, and job openings, which could either confirm the worrying forecasts or give markets reason to hope.
Bonds Rise on U.S. Economic Pessimism
The mood in the debt market is one of anxiety, as investors increasingly bet on a slowdown in the U.S. economy that will have a bigger impact than a short-term spike in inflation. As a result, confidence is growing that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut its key rate, with the average cut expected to be about 79 basis points this year.
Yields Fall: Government Debt Market Sounds Alarm
The risk-off push pushed the yield on 10-year US Treasuries down to 4.206%. Two-year bonds also responded by falling to 3.861%. These levels reflect growing doubts among market participants about the sustainability of economic growth and strengthen expectations for monetary easing.
All Eyes on Powell: Markets Await Signals
The key moment of the week will be the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday. His words may give markets a clear understanding of the central bank's further course. Before that, a series of comments from other Fed officials are expected, which may also affect the dynamics of expectations.
The dollar weakens: investors seek refuge in the yen and euro
The weakening yields of US bonds also pulled down the dollar: it lost 0.6% against the Japanese yen, falling to 148.90. The euro is holding steady around $1.0835. The broad dollar index is also showing a downward trend, having finished two sessions in the red and settled at 103.880.
Gold sets a record: flight to eternal value
In a situation of high uncertainty, gold has once again proven its reputation as a "safe haven". Its price has reached a new historical maximum of $3,111 per ounce. The growing interest in precious metals has become a reflection of the global flight of investors from risks and unstable assets.
Oil is falling again: the market fears weakening demand
Cautious pessimism remains on the oil market. North Sea Brent crude fell by 30 cents to $73.33 per barrel. American WTI fell by 31 cents and is now trading at $69.05 per barrel. The prospect of a slowdown in economic activity, which could lead to a decrease in global demand for raw materials, is putting pressure on quotes.
Tech giants lose their crown: the Magnificent Seven are under attack
Once symbols of stability and growth, and their shares were a must-have for any self-respecting investment portfolio. But now the so-called "Magnificent Seven" of the largest US tech companies are facing a massive sell-off for the sixth time in a row. The losses are colossal: almost $2 trillion has evaporated from their market capitalization. Against this backdrop, Chinese tech companies (HSTECH index) and European defense firms (SXPARO) have begun to push the American titans out of the investor spotlight.
US Treasuries: Modest but stable yields
Meanwhile, the US bond market is summing up the quarter on a moderately positive note. The yield on benchmark Treasuries, despite the turbulence, provided investors with a profit of 2.7%. The yield itself has fallen by more than 20 basis points over the period, indicating increased demand for US government bonds as a hedge in an unstable environment.
Germany is going all in: lifting the debt brake for the sake of defense
A game-changing precedent has occurred in Europe. Germany, historically restrained in matters of public debt, has announced its intention to temporarily lift the budget cap in order to increase defense spending. The reason is the weakening of military support from the US. This decision caused a sharp jump in German bond yields - by more than 40 basis points, which was the largest quarterly increase since 2023. Most notably, for the first time since 2021, German and US government bonds are moving in opposite directions.
Japan Breaks Tradition: Bonds at 2008 Highs
While Europe's fiscal policy is becoming increasingly aggressive, in Japan all eyes are on the Bank of Japan. Expectations of tighter monetary policy are pushing up yields on Japanese 10-year bonds. JGBs are now trading at levels not seen since 2008. A jump of almost 50 basis points in a quarter is the most significant increase since 2003, which suggests a possible revision of the long-standing low-rate policy.
Dollar Weakness Gives Emerging Currencies a Chance — But Not All
Amid the weakening of the US currency — the DXY dollar index lost 4% — emerging market currencies got a rare opportunity to demonstrate strength. However, the effect was mixed: some currencies were able to strengthen, while others only worsened their positions.
Lira and Rupee Among the Outsiders: Political and Financial Chaos
The Turkish lira was again under pressure — a loss of almost 7%. Investors reacted to the detention of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's key opponent, which increased concerns about domestic political stability.
The picture is not the best in Indonesia either: the rupiah fell to levels not seen since the 1998 crisis. The reason was growing doubts about Jakarta's budget sustainability and alarming signals about the possible return of military influence on the government.
Bitcoin - like a roller coaster
The crypto market, as always, lives by its own, sometimes parallel logic. Bitcoin first soared by 20% against the backdrop of Donald Trump's inauguration, but then followed a sharp fall of almost 30%. The reason is the skeptical reaction of the market to the announced initiative to create a US state crypto reserve, which, according to investors, remains in the realm of loud slogans for now.
The Middle East and the oil market: an unstable truce - unstable prices
Oil quotes continue to rush in both directions. Investors are assessing not only the balance of supply and demand, but also the situation in the Middle East, where the fragile truce between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah is already looking shaky. Any new flare-up of tension could shake up commodity markets again.
Gold and copper are high, coffee is on the verge of stress
Amid global risks, gold continues to grow steadily, adding 17% since the beginning of the year. Copper is not far behind, adding 11%, despite all fears of an economic slowdown. But the biggest shock is in the coffee market. Arabica prices have soared by 18% in just a quarter and have almost doubled in a year. This is due to a series of droughts that have destroyed crops in key regions of Latin America. Coffee lovers should brace themselves: a cup of the invigorating drink may soon become noticeably more expensive.
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US stock market: bad news fully priced in
The S&P 500 had its worst quarter in three years. Investors are shifting capital from North America to Europe. Once-booming US tech stocks have collapsed. Major banks and respected institutions are raising the odds of a recession for the American economy. That's a lot of bad news for a broad stock index, isn't it? However, buying the dip towards the lower boundary of the sideways range at 5,500–5,790 has borne fruit — just in time for America's "Liberation Day".
Performance of US stock indices
Donald Trump's policies have caused turmoil not only in financial markets but also among the general public. According to the latest Associated Press poll, nearly 60% of Americans disapprove of the president's protectionist stance, and 58% are dissatisfied with his overall handling of the US economy. The market sell-off reflects investor skepticism, but the Republican leader remains undeterred. He insists the country must endure short-term pain to reclaim a golden era for America.
That "Liberation Day" will come on April 2, when the White House is set to announce new tariffs. According to Wall Street Journal sources, the president is weighing two options: blanket 20% import tariffs or tailored, reciprocal tariffs. The former could send another shock through financial markets, while the latter might calm nerves.
Following JP Morgan and Moody's Analytics, Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a US recession from 20% to 35%. Yet investors have found new reasons for optimism. After a massive sell-off in tech stocks, forward P/E ratios are now approaching historical averages. In other words, stocks are no longer overvalued, making them more attractive.
US tech sector P/E trends
The White House's new tariffs could also slow capital outflows from North America to Europe. A full-blown trade war would likely hit the EU harder due to its large trade surplus with the United States. Moreover, part of the capital shift was driven by a 4.6% gain in the euro against the dollar in the first quarter. As a result, European investors lost about 13% on US-listed assets.
According to Wells Fargo, the dollar's January-March slide was temporary. Looking ahead, tariffs and trade tensions could boost the greenback by 1.5% to 11%, with maximum gains expected if America's trade partners avoid a full-scale retaliatory response.
From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 has bounced off the lower boundary of the previously established 5,500-5,790 consolidation range. Long positions opened at the 5,500 level appear to be worth holding. A break above the resistance levels at 5,625 (pivot) and 5,670 (fair value) would allow for additional long positions.
