Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 26, 2019



The euro major pair began the week with optimism after a sharp drop on Friday. They managed to have positive results across the day and close with a slight upward movement at the end of the day. Events on both the EU and the US bond market had a big impact on the price activity. Meanwhile, the bond market induced a risk-averse reaction to the European and American markets. Yet, the positive macro data from Europe as well as a slight rebound in American bond that lessens the aversion of traders to risk in yesterday’s price movement.

The German macro data favored the euro to have gains. During the US session, it was apparent that there is a healthy risk appetite on trading activity. Thus, the euro closed on an optimistic note in the broad global market yesterday. Yet, the bond market still gives hints for a US recession, which also restricted the gains for euro yesterday.

During the Asian hours, the pair traded range-bound prior to the update of the EU macro data, which will confirm the positive signals. At the same time, the pair has a bearish pressure due to Brexit negotiation. In the meantime, traders are heedful and careful in placing major trades, although the positive fundamental macro data can drive momentum and short-term opportunities for direction.

Today, data on Building Permits, Housing starts, and CB consumer confidence are anticipated from the US and the release of GFK German Consumer Climate data are scheduled from the eurozone.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 28, 2019



The euro major pair had a slight correction at the beginning of the Thursday session after the rise in the US dollar index. It rose with a dovish sentiment from the major world banks.

Yesterday, the ECB President Mario Draghi gave a signal of a possibility of a decline in the global economy. The central bank of New Zealand maintained the interest rate but hinted at the likelihood of a rate cut in the near term before or around the month of November. The price remained calm at the level of 1.1387 after the news saying that Theresa May will resign if the deal on Brexit is rejected twice.

Despite the global economy being sensitive, the EUR/USD pair may still have a bright outlook and remain optimistic on closing amid the major events today. Data on business climate for March and the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) index for March from the eurozone are anticipated to be released from Europe while the GDP for the fourth fiscal year is scheduled to be released from the US. This data is important as it would have an impact on major currency pairs including the euro.

The Simple Moving Average was found above the pair’s trading level, which gives a bearish tone for the day. It was able to reach the resistance level of 1.1267 in the past few days and there is a chance to achieve this area again today. However, it seems that there is no momentum to push the pair considering the MACD indicator.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 3, 2019



The euro declined more than the strong resistance level of 1.1192 during the North American session after the drop in US-German yield spread. However, the decline seems to have diminished on Wednesday morning. The attempt to work on the strong resistance level has succeeded as it moved slowly towards the next resistance level.

With the most recent optimistic news related to the US-China trade deal almost close to the resolution supported the crude oil prices up to $70 per barrel level, which is also anticipated to raise the EUR/USD pair.

In the Eurozone, Markit will release the March PMI monthly Composite Reports on Manufacturing and services for Eurozone, which is expected to be close to the previous result. Additionally, the February Retail Sales (YoY) from Eurostat is also scheduled in the eurozone. Meanwhile, in the US, the March Non-Manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will be published. Although, this won’t have a big impact.

The pair broke the upper level of 1.1220/1.2230 from 78.6 retracement level. Yet, it failed to break the resistance level of 1.1270 as it trades higher than the SMA for the important levels to come. The pair now have a bullish sentiment on its future outlook. Yet, the MACD shows no hints of bullishness to buy.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 8, 2019



The euro major pair is trading at a higher price on Monday session but stays in the range of yesterday for the third time. This chart movement imposes indecision and impending volatility which is driven by a weaker US dollar.

There is pressure over the dollar after the result of sluggish growth of the US non-farm payroll report with subdued average hourly growth. Hence, traders are likely to set positions prior to the release of the minutes of the meeting of the US Fed on monetary policy on Wednesday.

Although, the pair shows upward main trend to the swing chart despite the longer downward trend. After buyers broke through the previous main top at 1.1420 and trading to 1.1177 will shift the trend downward. However, a move towards 1.1448 will probably cause a continuation of the upward movement.

A maintained move higher than 1.1232 will indicate the presence of buyers with the first upper target at the minor top of 1.1255. Passing this level could bring the euro pair to the next upward Gann angle of 1.1287 with highly likely speed up to 50% level of 1.1316.

On the other hand, if the price stays below 1.1232, this would mean the presence of sellers with the next downward target at 1.1183, 1.1185 and 1.1187. A rebound is anticipated on the primary test of 1.1183 to 1.1187. But if this does not happen, then we can anticipate for the pair to extend up towards the bottom of 1.1177 and the trend with shift downward through this main downtrend.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 11, 2019



The euro major pair extended its consolidation within the range of 1.1273 and 1.1280. With rising geopolitical tensions from the FOMC minutes and the most recent update on Brexit, the growth of the global economy is affected negatively.

The US dollar remained weak after the FOMC published a dovish sentiment on economic growth.

The EU officials announced a flexible extension of Brexit until October 31, which means that Britain can exit before the deadline before the set date given that the deal can be ratified before the specified date. This means that they are hoping for EU to finish at an earlier data. In case that the UK is unsuccessful to ratify the deal on May 23rd, it means that EU elections can take place.

In the eurozone, Data on Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY), the Consumer Price Index (YoY), Consumer Price Index (MoM) and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices(HICP) (MoM) is scheduled to be released today. On the other hand, in the US, data on March Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY), an update on weekly Initial Jobless Claims as well as Counting Jobless Claims are anticipated to be published today.

Henceforth, the euro traded range-bound during the Asian session and remained in the range at 1.1255/1.1285. The EUR/USD pair trades above the Ichimoku clouds, as well as the baseline and the conversion line, giving a bullish signal on future movements. The Bollinger bands remain on a decline, signifying less volatility. The euro major pair hovered at the upper boundary that could open the possibility for a bullish trend.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 16, 2019



Previously, the German spread slid by 232 bp and gave a strong momentum to the euro major pair. After it grew from its lowest point at 1.1294, the pair was trading close to 1.1307 during the Asian hours. The pair stayed close to the secured level ranging at 1.1302/12.

In the international news, there is optimism regarding the US-China trade agreement with expectations that the pair will end prior to the last week of April.

The US Industrial scores (MoM) will be released, which is anticipated to cause some volatility. The forecast is presumed to increase by 0.2 percent compared to the previous one.

In the EU, they will publish the economic sentiment for Germany which will likely have a big impact with the forecast of 0.8 points increase. There will also be the index for the EMU but will have a lesser effect.

On the 4-hour chart, the price trades higher than SMA, indicating bullish sentiment. The price level of 1.1288 on 200-SMA is higher than 100-SMA, which is how the price looks in general. It seems that the price will be in a neutral stance for short-term

When looked into the 30-min chart, things urge more towards the neutral side in the near term. However, the euro pair had already breached the 21-day SMA and was afterward trading below the 55-day SMA.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 18, 2019



The euro major pair declined yesterday from the high of 1.1325 and then consolidated close to the level of 1.1300. There were signs of a decline during the early Asian hours. It needs to descend to the strong support level in order to confirm the bearish tone. Still, this pair tries to keep the level at a sustainable level of 1.1300.

On the technical perspective, the Ichimoku clouds give a bearish tone towards 1.1280 with the baseline and conversion line emerging with the pair. Thus, this generates a neutral forecast. As for the SMA, the price was below the 100- and 200- SMA giving a small bearish trend. However, if it rises backed with the fundamental reports, then the pair will see a strong resistance level of 1.1320.

Early this week, the ECB officials stated their concerns for strong economic growth but seem far-fetched. The dovish sentiment originated from the drop of the EUR/USD pair. It may worsen the significant fundamental events disappoints market expectations.

Today, data on German PPI for March (MoM) came out less than the forecast. Other reports including German PMI for Germany will be released later and Retail Sales Control Group for March from the United States.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 22, 2019

The euro major pair is moving sideways in a narrow trading range of 1.1237/52. There is some apparent movements on the Thursday session as it dropped to a two-week low amid the increasing greenback. The decline dropped after the release of the US retail sales data which induced the US dollar index to increase.

As for the pair, it’s decline has further intensified in the background of the weakened data in the German and Eurozone PMI reports. It looks like that after effects of the Thursday session has remained.

The US dollar reached the level of 97.50 as the monthly high against a basket of currency pair. Also, the crude oil was peaking in high levels during the morning session, which further complicated the condition.

On the other side, the progress remains risk-averse despite some pessimistic news on Brexit over the weekends. Speculation continues in regards to the resignation UK PM Theresa May while everybody waits for the advancement of the UK parliament officially on April 23rd.

For the day, data on economic activity index from the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for the month of March and estimate of the March MoM existing Home Sales from National Association of Realtors are scheduled to be released. If the home sales came out with a drop more than 210K, it will likely result in an increase of the euro major pair.

In trading, the upper hand seems to be on the bears as the 21-SMA moves along the pair and moves strongly in long-term that could mean a bearish tone for long-term. This is further supported by the 100- and 200-SMA marking higher than the euro major pair. The resistance line around 1.1324 stands strong while the support will probably remain at 1.1212.

GBP/USD Daily Analysis: April 25, 2019

The British major pair continued its decline which began since the middle of April. Prior to this, the pair consolidated at the beginning of the trading session. It reached as low as 1.2917, close to 1.2884. So far, it positions at the lowest level this month.

The negotiations between the Prime Minister continued and the Labour party over Brexit. The Labour party requested for modifications in the Agriculture bill while most expected a compromise over Brexit.

Overall, it seems that things are in favor of the prime minister as May was successful in gaining an early no-confidence vote in the UK parliament.

For today, data on Distributive Trades Survey in April (MoM) will be released by the Confederation of British Industry with anticipation for a bullish sentiment from analysts. Various March indices will be published as well, namely, US Nondefense Capital Goods Orders (excluding the Aircrafts), Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders (excluding Defence and excluding Transportation on the other). April reports are also scheduled including Continuing Jobless Claims and Initial Jobless Claims.

In the technical aspect, the cable pair is trading to its lowest level at 1.2882 for the month. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands remains low amid expected low volatility and lost its stance on the strong level of 1.300. The price crossed the EMA, showing an upward sign in the short-term. Yet, investors continue to unaffected by the RSI close to 30th figure. The 200-SMA is higher than 100-SMA by 30 pips and majority shows bearish legs for the pair.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: April 26, 2019

The price of the euro major pair rose slightly yesterday after reaching the lowest level on the chart. Yet, trading has remained subdued today as it consolidates close to 1.1136.

Since the start of the week, it lost around 117 pips for a given period of time. Surprisingly, the euro major pair broke the level of 1.1185 but it didn’t really have an impact on the traders.

The market worsened with the ongoing EU-US trade conflict and the ECB remained neutral or bearish with the EMU economic growth. Meanwhile, the USD index is also one of the concerns for the pair.

There are some significant events from the euro which will likely influence the pair for the day yet the steady US data wait for the pair. Nevertheless, the events from the US may support the pair higher.

Today, the SNB head, Thomas Jordan will have a conference which may affect the Swiss Franc in particular. From the US, report on the Annualized GDP growth for the first quarter will be released of which the experts forecast a bearish outcome with high volatility. At the same time, various data including GDP Price Index, Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices (QoQ), Core Personal Consumption (QoQ) and Consumer Sentiments from Michigan for the first quarter are scheduled today.

The pair was seen trading close to the 18-month low during the Asian session. The bearish sentiment remains as it moves close to 1.1139. It attempts to rise higher to the upper region of the Bollinger bands, yet, there is a reduction in the background of low volatility. The significant SMA stands strong, suggesting for a bearish movement in the future.