Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 20, 2017

The U.S. dollar weakened on Friday despite the light market caused by the federal holiday, US President's Day. Investor’s attention was drawn towards the nation’s current political condition while expecting for the final resolution regarding the financial assistance to Greece.

The upward trajectory weakened on Friday. The single European currency failed to break the 1.0680 region and reverse.

During the Asian hours, the market is relatively quiet and exhibit further agility amid EU session. The demand for the greens was brought by some European traders which drove the spot downwards. The EUR steeply declined and tested 1.0650 mark during the post opening of EU trades. The aforesaid mark stalled the sellers’ action, therefore, rejected the EURUSD higher.

The pair surpasses the 200-EMA lower, rebounded the 100-EMA and tested the 50-EMA.

Moreover, the 100 and 50-EMAs headed downwards and the 200-day moving averages appeared to be bullish-neutral. Resistance lies at 1.0700, support is seen at 1.0650.

The MACD indicator plunged to the positive territory and if it hovered within that area, the position of the buyers will reinforce. RSI is confined in the overvalued zone, favoring another downward trend.

The major struggled to proceed upwards. A break under 1.0600 region would consider further instability to 1.0550. Should the level jump up would signal an opportunity to buy on a dip.

The technical pictures the GBPUSD to hover around the trading range of the previous week. The cable came across with a wave of selling pressure after the failure of the spot in reacquiring the psychological mark 1.2500.

The British currency weakened to 1.2500 amid Asian hours and touched 1.2400 level overnight. The level prevents its losses which rejected the price higher. The pair pushed the 50-EMA lower, tested the 200-EMA and rebounded the 100-day moving averages as shown in the 4-hour chart.

Furthermore, the 200-EMA seems bullish-neutral while the 50 and 100-EMA are neutralized. Resistance settled at 1.2500, support entered 1.2400 area.

The MACD sits in the center point. Should the histogram move near the positive zone to provide further strength for the buyers. While an entry towards the negative territory will imply sellers capacity to manage the market. RSI departed from the neutral zone and advance south.
The technicals manifested a moderate bearish signal. We projected the major will proceed towards 1.2400 and the price might decline to 1.2340 after reaching the initial target.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 20, 2017

The NZDUSD were kept below the pressured area and resumed its decline under the 0.7200 level on Friday. Having broke the level, sellers weakened and took a pause to regain some steam attempting to make another move downwards.

The major rebounded the 50-EMA towards a lower point as indicated in the 4-hour chart. The spot extended its development in the middle of 200 and 50-EMAs. The 50-EMA is trending lower, 100-EMA was neutralized and the 200-EMA moved higher. Resistance is at 0.7200, support lies at 0.7150.

MACD histogram lies at the center point. If the indicator approaches the positive zone, it will provide added strength for the buyers. While an entry in the negative territory will open an opportunity for the sellers to dominate the market. RSI escaped from the overvalued area and settled around the neutral region. Should the spot surpass the 0.7200 mark higher, will negate the medium-term negative outlook.

The bulls are able to drive the pair to 0.7250 handle. While a decline under 0.7150 will cause the support the sellers having a chance to continue its slide through 0.7100.

The EUR/USD pair was subject to some nice amounts of volatility during the past week after the currency pair was mainly influenced by the dollar strength during the first half of the week, but immediately went into reversal as the latter part of the week started. The currency pair is now expected to consolidate with a bullish undertone for this week, with projected support levels at 1.0500 points and resistance levels expected to be at 1.0800 points.

Last week, the EUR/USD finally looked like it turned for the better as the currency pair made a steady march towards 1.0500 after breaking through 1.0600 after a foreshadowing of a long-awaited dollar uptrend. This was also further supported by Yellen’s confirmation that the Fed will be implementing another rate hike this coming March. However, the effect of this positive news was offset by the release of the CPI data which showed weak wages data in spite of the overall data being highly positive. This turned out to be unappealing for the dollar bulls and caused the USD’s strength to die down, causing the pair to end at just over 1.0600 points.

For this week, there will be a US market holiday and there are no expected data to come out from both the EU and the US for the week. The EUR/USD pair will most likely continue its current trend of ranging and consolidating for this week.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 22, 2017

The USD/CAD has still managed to keep itself afloat in spite of a small increase in oil prices during the previous trading session. The currency pair continued to trade within its ranges, but this could be a cause for celebration of the pair’s bulls as the USD/CAD traded within its range highs with no hints of weakness whatsoever. This movement was also partly due to the recent surge in the dollar’s value which ensured support for the pair’s bulls.

As of this morning, the USD/CAD has somewhat weakened in stance and spent most of the session consolidating within its range highs with no actual direction. The USD/CAD bulls are now monitoring the release of the FOMC minutes, whose hawkish outlook might possibly lend some much-needed support for the pair and finally create some sense of direction. If the minutes are able to meet market expectations, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly move towards 1.3200 and could even go beyond this range.

For today’s session, we have the FOMC meeting minutes set to be released as well as the release of the US housing data. Meanwhile, the Canadian economy will be releasing its core retail sales data which will have to be closely watched by the USD/CAD bears in order for them to regain dominance over the currency pair.

The GBP/USD pair continues to trade very well during the past trading sessions in spite of the US dollar regaining the majority of its losses. The GBP/USD pair remains to be one of the most resilient currency pairs, with the pair even bouncing back significantly as the dollar exhibited weakness and managing to hold on its own once the USD strengthened.

However, it is important to note that in spite of its relative strength, the GBP/USD pair is still trading within a very wide range of 400-500 pips, with the pair consistently trading within this range and not going much further. However, as the Brexit process starts to unfold and with the forthcoming invocation of Article 50, the pair might be in for some added volatility in the coming weeks. But it still remains to be seen whether the pair will be able to finally surpass its current ranges and record some significant change in trend.

UK will be releasing its second GDP estimate today which is expected to give the market an inkling of the current state of the UK economy. The GDP estimate would most likely come out as somewhat positive since the economic state of the country has been well during the past periods. The FOMC minutes will also be released later today, and this is expected to be an indicator of the GBP/USD pair’s short-term trend. If the market expectations with regards to the FOMC minutes is met, then the currency pair could possibly revert back to 1.2400 points.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 23, 2017

An objective trend seems bearish. The New Zealand dollar resumed its reversal on Tuesday regaining greater portion of its previous losses. The price halted on top of the 0.7150 level as it trade in a tight range yesterday.

The spot remained unsteady near its fresh highs throughout the day. As shown in the 4-hour chart, the 50-EMA made a downward crossover to 200-EMA whilst the price resumed its development on the lower area of the moving averages. Moreover, the 50 and 100-EMA drove downwards while 200-EMA preserved a bullish pattern. Resistance pierced 0.7200, support plunge in at 0.7150.

The MACD indicator had a dip confirming addition strength for the seller. RSI hovered around the neutral zone.

The price met a support within 0.7150 loss and stalled through 0.7100.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 27, 2017

The EURUSD pair strengthened versus the sluggish U.S dollar. The greenbacks were kept below the pressured area during the mid-week of trading following the FOMC minutes and the comments made by Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin regarding tax reform.

The growth gained by the pair did not help the major and further hovered around the descending channel. The buyers lead the price towards its upper limit. The recovery sustained overnight tried to move in the underside of the 1.0600 hurdle during the morning trades of the EU session.

The upside of the pair lost its steam in searching for renewed offers within the level. Buyers attempted to make a gap on top of 1.0600 prior the opening of the New York trades. Moreover, the price surpassed the 50-EMA and continued to stay over the moving averages as outlined in the 4-hour chart. The 100-EMA carried a downward crossover through the 200-EMA. The 50 and 100-EMAs headed lower and the 200-EMA bounced along the neutral zone.
Resistance is at 1.0650 region, support settled in the 1.0600 mark. The MACD histogram acquired growth which signaled weak stance of the sellers. RSI is considered neutral.

A trend above the 1.0600 range indicates support buyers in sending the market through 1.0630 – 1.0650. Likewise, a return to the 1.0550 mark may open doors to move near 1.0500.

The British currency preserved a bid tone close to its recent highs. The sterling gained strength following the favorable results for the BBA Mortgage Approvals along with the USD retracement.

The GBPUSD lacks momentum and failed to touch resistance region 1.2600. The bulls stalled near the 1.2565 level due to failure in driving the spot upwards. The pair is confined in a tight range around 50 pips amid the European trades. A bout of renewed selling interest developed amid EU morning trades.

The Cable weakened versus the greenbacks moving near 1.2500 area. The GBP/USD bounced back from the 200-EMA and surpassed the 50 and 100-EMA higher viewed in the 4-hour chart. The GBP resumed its development over the moving averages. The 200 and 50-EMA directed higher while the 100-EMA preserved a bearish pattern indicated in the same chart. Resistance is set at 1.2600, support pierced the 1.2500 mark.

The MACD indicator increased which confirmed strength for the buyers. RSI weakened and descended.

Bullish sentiment would likely prevail. A trend on top of 1.2550 would restore the bullish tone through 1.2600 – 1.2650.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 27, 2017

The Australian currency declined following the announcement made by the RBA Governor, Philip Lowe confirming that the Central Bank will not approve for an interest rate hike in the near future. Regardless of the positive trend in general, bulls were unable to climb higher.

Having posted its recent highs within the 0.7739 region, the price weakened and turned back towards 0.7700 where sustained a consolidated position throughout the night trades.
The increasing demand for the US dollar caused the Aussie to break under 0.7700 driving the AUD to 0.7650.

The 50-EMA was being tested by the price as indicated in the 4-hour chart. The 50, 100 and 200 moving averages moved upwards. Resistance is shown at 0.7700, support is found at 0.7650. MACD decreased indicating a sell signal. The RSI appeared to be neutral.

The AUDUSD pair is required to beef up and take a grasp into the 0.7700 level as a means of strength recovery. The recent weakness is regarded as corrective. There is a chance to buy the dips.

A break under 0.7650 will ease the movement of the upward pressure. A move on the underside of 0.7550 will neutralize the buying pressure and open possibility for further weakening.