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Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

This is a discussion on Forex News Analysis by LiteForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; EUR/USD: ambiguous trading Current trend EUR is showing ambiguous trading during today's Asian session, consolidating near 1.2100 after the instrument ...

      
   
  1. #1211
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    EUR/USD: ambiguous trading

    Current trend

    EUR is showing ambiguous trading during today's Asian session, consolidating near 1.2100 after the instrument retraced the day before. The reason for yesterday's resumption of "bullish" trend was the disappointing data from the US. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 12 again showed an increase from 848K to 861K, while analysts expected their reduction to 765K. Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending February 5 fell from 4.558M to 4.494M, which fell short of the most optimistic forecasts of 4.413M. Thus, investors are again convinced that it is still somewhat premature to talk about the beginning of a confident recovery of the American economy. As Jerome Powell said, it will take years for the labor market to return to its previous levels.

    The focus of European investors today is statistics on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors in Germany and the eurozone for February.

    Support and resistance

    Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is changing slightly, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD has reversed towards growth without forming a buy signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, reversing upwards near the level of "20". Current readings of the indicator signal in favor of a corrective growth in the ultra-short term.

    Resistance levels: 1.2100, 1.2150, 1.2200.
    Support levels: 1.2052, 1.2022, 1.2000, 1.1951.




  2. #1212
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    BTC/USD: growth prospects remain

    Current trend

    Last week, the pair has continued growing. The price reached new all-time highs, rising above 58000.00 and adding about 17.4%.

    The growth in quotes was due to the growing popularity of BTC among large institutional players. Tesla Inc. investment into Bitcoin encouraged other large global companies to enter the digital assets market. German SynBiotic SE has officially announced the transfer of part of its liquidity to BTC, as it fears a serious devaluation of world fiat currencies.

    The price increase is supported by the launch in Canada of the first Bitcoin ETF in North America. Its shares began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange on February 18. According to Bloomberg, in the first two days, the fund managed to attract investments in the amount of USD 421M, which is several times higher than the capitalization of the average Canadian ETF. Bitcoin ETF trading may be allowed in the US in the near term, providing new support for the entire cryptocurrency sector.

    Support and resistance

    The price maintains an uptrend, which is confirmed by upward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and an increase in the MACD histogram in the positive zone. Now the price is trying to consolidate above 56250.00 (Murrey [+1/8]). If successful, the growth of quotations will continue to 62500.00 (Murrey [+2/8]) and 65600.00 (Murrey [+5/8], H4). A downward reversal of Stochastic in the overbought zone does not exclude a price rollback to 50000.00 (Murrey [8/8]), but is unlikely to lead to the uptrend reversal.

    Resistance levels: 56250.00, 62500.00, 65600.00.
    Support levels: 53900.00, 50000.00, 43750.00.


  3. #1213
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    WTI Crude Oil: oil prices are consolidating

    Current trend

    Yesterday oil prices hit record highs since January 2020. Today during the Asian session, the price moves flat, trading near $61 per barrel. It is supported by the optimistic market’s mood, expecting a further easing of quarantine restrictions and the restoration of oil demand to previous levels. However, the speech of the head of the US Fed Jerome Powell in Congress alarmed investors, as he noted that it would take "some time" for the economy to recover.

    Yesterday’s API report on oil reserves also contributed to the development of corrective dynamics. For the week of February 19, stocks in the country rose by 1.026 million barrels after falling by 5.8 million barrels in the previous period. On Wednesday, traders are focused on the second Powell’s speech and the publication of a report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.

    Support and resistance

    Bollinger bands grow steadily on the daily chart. The price range narrows from above, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading at the beginning of the week. MACD falls, maintaining a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic reversed upwards after the flat dynamics and indicates the remaining “bullish” potential after the active growth at the beginning of the week.

    To open new trading positions, it is better to wait until the signals from technical indicators are clarified.

    Resistance levels: 62.18, 63.00, 64.00, 64.71.
    Support levels: 60.50, 58.51, 57.25, 55.00.




  4. #1214
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    USD/CAD: wave analysis

    The pair may fall.

    On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level (C) of 4 develops, within which the fifth wave 5 of (C) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 5 has formed, a local correction has formed as the wave iv of 5, and the wave v of 5 is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 1.2450–1.2300. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2750.




  5. #1215
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    XAU/USD: wave analysis

    The pair is in a correction, a fall is possible.

    On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) formed, and a downward correction develops as the fourth wave (4). Now, the wave C of (4) is forming, within which the wave iii of C is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 1728.61–1622.21. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1876.65.




  6. #1216
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    GBP/USD: recovery after correction

    Current trend

    GBP is correcting against USD in the trading session this morning, recovering from a confident decline at the end of the previous trading week. The weakening of GBP was facilitated by a large-scale correction in the bond market, which provoked a decrease in demand for risky assets. GBP was also under pressure from the comments of the Bank of England officials. Last Friday, the chief economist of the regulator, Andy Haldane, made a speech in which he pointed to the risks of inflation, noting that it will be extremely difficult to contain it as the global economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic.

    Meanwhile, investors continue to praise the effectiveness of the UK coronavirus vaccination campaign, expecting the latest travel restrictions to be fully lifted by summer or fall 2021. Today, traders are awaiting the release of February UK Manufacturing PMI from Markit. Also, data on the dynamics of consumer credit in January will be released.

    Support and resistance

    On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands demonstrate a tendency to reverse into a horizontal plane. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic demonstrates similar dynamics but its line is rapidly approaching its lows, pointing at risks of oversold GBP in the ultra-short term.

    Resistance levels: 1.4000, 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4150.
    Support levels: 1.3950, 1.3900, 1.3861, 1.3800.




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