Wave Analysis by InstaForex

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the GBP/USD Pair for April 14. The Strait of Hormuz: Both a Joke and a Tragedy



The GBP/USD currency pair traded in a downward trend on Monday, which was completely predictable. Some experts likely expected that by noon, the dollar would rise by 200 pips, but why rush for the market? It has been ignoring all non-geopolitical factors, and there is plenty of time to buy the US currency. Therefore, we believe the dollar will begin a systematic rise amid new escalations in the Middle East. What does this new escalation entail? It involves Trump's threats to block the Strait of Hormuz. Many traders may ask: why block a strait that is already blocked?

Trump wants to block it for Iranian tankers and ships. Simply put, Iran has blocked the Strait to prevent oil from hostile countries in the region from entering global markets. In essence, this is blackmail against the whole world, because aggression against Iran has been displayed by the US, and high prices for fuel, oil, and gas have affected everyone.

Now, the American president wants to make Iran suffer by using the same method—simply cutting off oil supplies from Iran to China and other countries in the Far East. How feasible is this? Frankly, Trump's threats seem unrealistic. Trump has already promised to "destroy the Iranian nation," to seize Kharg Island, and much more. However, almost any military expert will tell you that an operation of this magnitude would result in huge losses for the American military and enormous financial outlays. And their positive outcome is by no means guaranteed. Essentially, such an operation is an adventure, and the leader of the White House understands this very well.

However, Trump has little leverage left. He no longer has anything to pressure Iran into signing a peace agreement on Washington's terms. Iran has shown its readiness to defend its political regime, the direction of its international and domestic policies, and its independence and sovereignty for as long as necessary. Trump's plans do not include bombing Iran for the next few years, especially since Iran actively retaliates against those countries within range of its missiles and drones. Meanwhile, oil prices are rising, and Iran threatens that, in the event of a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, it will also block the Bab-al-Mandab Strait, which would certainly push oil prices to $150-$200 per barrel.

Who would be blamed in this case? The same person as now—Donald Trump. Who will vote for the Republican Party in November 2026 if oil prices rise by another $50-$100 per barrel? No one. Therefore, Trump is desperately trying to find a way out of a situation he himself created. Currently, we see little chance of the conflict ending on American terms. Instead of a cheap dollar, Trump may now revel in a rising dollar and face tightening rather than easing from the Federal Reserve, as inflation jumped by 0.9% year-on-year in March.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis of EUR/USD on April 15. Euro Continues Its Path to Victory

Analysis of EUR/USD 5M




The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, with the move not objectively triggered by local macroeconomic or fundamental events. It was not driven even by geopolitical events. Reports continue to come from the Middle East and the White House, which are not at all in line with the concepts of "de-escalation" and "ending the conflict." Specifically, Donald Trump on Monday announced his own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is hardly a positive development. However, the two-week ceasefire continues, and so far, neither side of the conflict has violated it. Rumor has it that negotiations may resume this week, which is a positive sign. Better unpromising talks than continuing the war. We believe the euro has been rising for over a week because the shelf life of geopolitics has expired. We have repeatedly warned that the dollar cannot and will not continue to rise solely on the basis of one factor. There are simply no other growth factors for it. In technical terms, the upward trend continues without any doubt. It is difficult to say how long the euro's rise will last, but traders currently have technical benchmarks to react to changes in market sentiment. If the war in the Middle East resumes, the dollar may resume growth, but we continue to expect the upward trend to continue in 2025 in any case. In yesterday's 5-minute timeframe, two buy signals were generated. The price rebounded twice from the area of 1.1750-1.1760, providing traders with two opportunities to open long positions at the very beginning of the European trading session. By the end of the day, the pair moved up about a minimum of 25 pips, which could have been earned quite easily.

COT Report



The latest COT report is dated April 7. The illustration for the weekly timeframe clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but is rapidly declining amid geopolitical events. Traders are massively shedding the euro in favor of the U.S. dollar. Donald Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar now serves as a "reserve currency," ensuring strong demand for it. We see no fundamental factors that would strengthen the euro; however, there are plenty that would weaken the dollar. The war in the Middle East temporarily made the dollar super-attractive, but once this factor's "shelf life" expires, everything will return to normal. In the long term, the euro may fall to 1.06 (the trendline), but the upward trend will remain intact. Currently, the pair has not deviated significantly from the descending trend line, which has been broken several times. The position of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicates parity between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs among the "Non-commercial" group increased by 800, while the number of shorts increased by 8,800. Accordingly, the net position decreased by another 8,000 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H



On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues its upward trend. A new escalation in the Middle East could once again shift traders' priorities; thus, any growth in the pair should be approached cautiously. At the same time, the situation in the Middle East remains stably tense but is not deteriorating, so there are also few compelling reasons for the U.S. dollar to strengthen further. Currently, there are no technical grounds to expect a decline. On April 15, we identified the following levels for trading: 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1583) and Kijun-sen line (1.1730). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set the Stop Loss order to breakeven if the price has moved in the right direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false. On Wednesday, a report on industrial production will be published in the European Union, and ECB President Christine Lagarde will also give another speech. In the U.S., the event calendar is essentially empty.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Review. April 16. The Northern Impulse Continues



The EUR/USD currency pair failed to extend its upward move on Wednesday, raising alarms among many experts. In their opinion, the bulls have squeezed the most out of the current situation, and further upward movement will require solid reasons. We believe this is both true and not entirely correct. It is important to note that over the past week and a half, the euro has easily and simply recovered more than 50% from its preceding decline, based solely on market belief that the war in the Middle East has ended and that the Strait of Hormuz will eventually be unblocked.

Essentially, traders did not even need specifics on this broad topic that had dragged the EUR/USD pair down for two consecutive months. What can we confidently discuss now? Only that there are currently no hostilities in the Middle East. This is a fact, and it is a positive fact. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and it is unknown how long it will remain so. Negotiations with Iran have de facto not been concluded, but they are also not currently ongoing. No ceasefire agreements have been announced. All we see is a cessation of hostilities.

It's worth reminding that this very scenario was indirectly voiced by some experts, including us. Donald Trump has been unable and will not be able to force Iran to abandon its nuclear developments and weapons, which has left America in a stalemate. The goals have not been achieved (whatever Trump might say), and further conflict cannot proceed without risking the loss of both chambers of Congress in November.

As a result, Trump and JD Vance have repeatedly stated that America has won and that continuing the fight is pointless, as all goals have been achieved. By the way, what these "achieved goals" are remains unknown. The U.S. president has wanted to denuclearize Iran for two years straight, and for two years, he has achieved nothing. What were the other objectives? To kill Ali Khamenei? What would that have accomplished when Tehran's political course remains unchanged? Thus, the conflict cannot be considered resolved. It should be noted that last year, Trump struck Iranian nuclear facilities, and then the conflict in the Middle East seemed to have exhausted itself.

After all, Trump then proclaimed the total destruction of Iran's nuclear potential. We wouldn't be surprised if, after the elections, Trump announces that Iran is ready to launch nuclear missiles at the U.S. tomorrow, necessitating a new military operation. And everything will start over. It is crucial for Trump not to lose the elections in Congress completely; after that, his rhetoric may undergo significant changes.

We are nearly certain that Iran understands this. As for the dollar's decline, the shelf life of the geopolitical factor has simply expired. What does the U.S. dollar have left in its arsenal? Nothing. On the daily timeframe, the pair has tested the Senkou Span B line of the Ichimoku indicator, which accounts for the pause observed now.




The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 16 is 66 pips, characterized as "average." We expect the pair to move between 1.1734 and 1.1866 on Thursday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a shift in trend to a downward one. However, an upward trend may actually resume at this time. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area and formed a "bearish" divergence, warning of a possible downward pullback in the near future.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Signals for XAU/USD on April 16-18, 2026: buy if rebounds from $4,770 (21 SMA - 200 EMA)



The XAU/USD pair is trading around $4,818 following a consolidation above the 200 EMA, showing a positive signal. The chart above shows signs of exhaustion, suggesting that gold is expected to face downward pressure in the coming days. Gold has made every effort to consolidate above the 200 EMA, rebounding several times above this zone. However, the bullish momentum was unable to push gold toward the two expected levels of $4,890 and even $5,000.

On the H4 chart, we can see that gold has reached its early April high around $4,860. Since then, we have seen a technical correction, so the instrument is likely to face downward pressure in the coming days. If this scenario plays out, XAU is expected to reach the 200 EMA around $4,778, but if there is a break below the 7/8 Murray line, it could continue to fall.

A technical rebound in gold above the 200 EMA, the 21 SMA, and the lower band of the uptrend channel—which converge around $4,778—could be a good entry point for long positions with targets at $5,000. Conversely, a sharp drop below the 200 EMA and a decisive break of the uptrend channel could signal a trend reversal, and gold could quickly sink to $4,687, and even down the 6/8 Murray level around $4,375.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis of EUR/USD for April 20. Ceasefire without a Ceasefire

Analysis of EUR/USD 5M



The EUR/USD currency pair moved in a completely predictable direction until the evening on Friday. In the first half of the day, with no macroeconomic or fundamental information, volatility was zero, and the market moved sideways. As evening approached, information about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz came in, triggering a decline in the US dollar. Towards the end of the day and week, the pair plummeted by 90 pips, for which there seems to be no logical explanation at first glance. Nevertheless, we can hypothesize that the market has exhausted its positivity regarding the agreement between Iran and the US, the ceasefire in the Middle East, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar fell for two consecutive weeks and, as we have established, every fairy tale eventually comes to an end. From a technical perspective, the pair remains in an upward trend on the hourly timeframe, as evidenced by the trend line and the price's location above the critical Kijun-sen line and the 1.1750-1.1760 area. However, most likely we will see a new decline this week, at least a corrective one. The events of Friday were very interesting, but two days have passed since then, during which Iran managed to close the Strait of Hormuz again, and the situation between the US and Iran has once again escalated to the brink. Thus, Donald Trump announced his readiness to resume military operations in the region if the next round of negotiations fails. As we warned, a temporary ceasefire is absolutely not a guarantee of sustainable peace. On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Friday. First, the pair overcame the area 1.1830-1.1837; however, this signal proved to be blatantly false. But the next sell signal allowed traders not only to recover all losses from the first trade but to remain in the profit by the end of the day.


COT Report





The latest COT report is dated April 14. The illustration on the weekly timeframe clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish," but is rapidly declining amid geopolitical events. Traders are dumping the euro in favor of the US dollar. Donald Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar is currently acting as a "reserve currency," which ensures high demand for it. We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the euro, while there are still enough factors that would weaken the American dollar. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but when this factor reaches its "expiration date," everything will return to normal. In the long term, the euro could fall to the level of 1.06$ (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. Currently, the pair has not moved significantly away from the descending trend line, which has been broken several times. The location of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicates parity between the bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 13,700, while the number of shorts decreased by 19,900. Accordingly, the net position increased by 33,600 contracts in just one week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H



On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. A new escalation in the Middle East may again shift traders' trading priorities; therefore, a noticeable decline is quite possible in the new week. The situation in the Middle East remains tense but is not worsening, so there are also a few strong reasons for the US dollar to strengthen further. There are no technical reasons to expect the pair to drop below the level of 1.1400. For April 20, we highlight the following levels for trading — 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the lines of Senkou Span B (1.1658) and Kijun-sen (1.1769). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Do not forget to set a Stop Loss order to break even if the price has moved in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false. On Monday, there will be another speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde in the European Union, who will surely comment on the latest developments in the Middle East and in relations between Iran and the US. In the States, the event calendar is completely empty. Geopolitics will again come to the forefront after the events of Saturday and Sunday.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. April 21. They Didn't Even Agree to Negotiate



The EUR/USD currency pair traded quite calmly on Monday, especially in the first half of the day, despite the geopolitical backdrop. This backdrop, it must be said, remains filled with reports that do not indicate a quick end to the war in the Middle East. Over the past two weeks, markets have regained hope following the ceasefire between Iran and the US. However, the ceasefire was initially agreed upon as temporary.

Perhaps many traders thought that great things start small, and if the parties actually sat down at the negotiating table, an agreement would eventually be reached. However, facts tell a completely different story. To begin with, the Strait of Hormuz remained open for less than one day after Trump's statements. Then Tehran discovered with surprise that Iranian ports remained blocked by the US Navy and reintroduced its blockade.

It's unclear who did not understand this situation. Initially, Tehran stated that it was lifting the blockade because Israel agreed to a 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon. However, it later became clear that Tehran was also expecting the lifting of the American blockade, even though this had not been mentioned beforehand. This marks the first case where it is no longer Trump making empty promises or issuing false statements, but Iran itself not understanding what it wants, what was agreed upon, and under what conditions to proceed.

However, traders, in principle, do not care who understood whom this time. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the second round of negotiations, which was supposed to take place first on Saturday, then Sunday, and finally Monday, never occurred. In addition, the US fleet fired upon several Iranian vessels in the Persian Gulf, and Iran fired upon several foreign vessels attempting to leave the Gulf.

So what is the outcome? The Strait is closed, the war continues, there are no negotiations, and the world is seriously beginning to search for alternative sources of oil and gas supplies, not expecting a quick end to the conflict in the Middle East. So why didn't the US dollar show growth on Monday? We have already mentioned in recent weeks that the geopolitical factor has an expiration date. It seems that the conflict in the Middle East has an expiration date of approximately two months.

Thus, the market initially priced in the war itself, then the temporary ceasefire, and now all events are accounted for. Of course, the situation may change in either direction, but we believe that from now on, the influence of geopolitics will be much less than before. Even Brent oil prices declined slightly on Monday, not reacting to the failure of negotiations or the new blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

From a technical standpoint, the situation is currently quite complex. On the one hand, the dollar still has no reason to show growth other than geopolitical ones. But the geopolitical factor will likely no longer influence currency traders' mood as strongly as it did before. On the other hand, new escalations in the conflict could still provoke a couple of rounds of dollar growth, and after two weeks of rising, the EUR/USD pair needs correction

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of April 21 is 60 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1725 and 1.1845 on Tuesday. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, signaling a bearish trend.

However, in reality, the upward trend of 2025 may resume. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and formed a "bearish" divergence, warning of a downward pullback. A "bullish" divergence indicates a renewal of the upward trend. Nearest Support Levels: S1 – 1.1780 S2 – 1.1719 S3 – 1.1658 Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.1841 R2 – 1.1902 R3 – 1.1963

Trading Recommendations:



The EUR/USD pair continues its upward movement amid a weakening geopolitical influence on market sentiment. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative, so in the long term, we still expect the pair to grow. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.1658 and 1.1597 based on technical grounds.

Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets of 1.1841 and 1.1902. The market is gradually moving away from the geopolitical factor, and the dollar is losing its only growth driver.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Overview. April 22. Who Is Interested in the Statistics Now?



The GBP/USD currency pair traded extremely calmly on Tuesday, despite the release of several important and resonant reports from the UK. First, let's start with the unemployment report, which unexpectedly fell from 5.2% to 4.9%, below forecasts of 5.2%. Such a decrease in one of the main macroeconomic indicators should have triggered a rise in the British currency. And it would have, if it weren't for one "but"—the market has been ignoring the macroeconomic backdrop for two months now.

There is no need to search for a "spoonful of tar" in the report itself. This is far from the first time that the market has shown no reaction to crucial data. If the report was not as strong as it appears at first glance, the pound should have dropped immediately following the publication. If the report was indeed good, the British currency should have risen. However, we saw neither of these outcomes, and the US dollar's moderate growth is purely corrective. The GBP/USD pair had also risen for two consecutive weeks, so a slight pullback is not detrimental.

Although the influence of geopolitics is waning, the market is still not rushing to respond to standard fundamentals and macroeconomic factors. Upcoming meetings of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve are approaching, and the British central bank seemed much more "hawkish" a month ago than its American counterpart. Nevertheless, the dollar continued to rise, driven solely by geopolitical factors. Currently, the market is in limbo, as it is unclear whether a new round of negotiations between Tehran and Washington will take place this week. JD Vance may have already flown to Islamabad, but what stops Iran from once again refusing to meet? Moreover, various reports suggest that there is no consensus in Tehran regarding negotiations with the US. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps insists on a hardline stance: no negotiations until Washington unblocks Iranian ports. Meanwhile, the new supreme leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, agrees to meet to resolve the conflict as quickly as possible.

The confusion over who is really in charge and making decisions in the country also remains unclear. As for the negotiations themselves, we remain quite skeptical. We still do not understand what the parties are supposed to negotiate when no one is willing to compromise on the most important points. The only chance for the world is the signing of a nuclear deal akin to the one that existed between the countries ten years ago. Specifically, representatives from international organizations would be allowed access to Iran's nuclear facilities to establish control over enriched uranium. However, has Tehran agreed to a new nuclear deal when Donald Trump once unilaterally withdrew from a similar agreement? In Tehran's view, any arrangement with the US guarantees nothing.



The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 67 pips, which is considered "average." On Wednesday, April 22, we expect the pair to trade within a range between 1.3434 and 1.3568. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, signaling a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and has formed a "bearish" divergence, warning of a potential downward pullback.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. April 23. Neither Fish nor Fowl



The EUR/USD currency pair traded with low volatility and a slight downward corrective bias on Wednesday. Traders continue to ignore the macroeconomic backdrop. Even if there is a market reaction to individual reports, it is extremely difficult to distinguish it from technical movements. Over the weekend, we discussed that the market is in a situation where a downward correction is needed.

This downward correction we have observed for the fourth consecutive day. Where the price will be in a week is known only to God. The situation that developed over the weekend is as paradoxical as the situation around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran. What have we seen? The pair has declined for two months due to geopolitical tensions. This means that the negative scenario for events in the Middle East has already played out. Check one box. Next, we observed a two-week rise against the backdrop of a temporary truce between Iran and the US and hopes for a swift resolution to the conflict.

This means that the positive scenario has also played out. Check another box. What's next? For a new, powerful rise of the U.S. dollar, a significant escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is required. In simple terms, the situation needs to become much worse than it was a month ago. What might that entail? It seems that only a renewal of full-scale war involving all participants and the closure of the Bab-al-Mandab Strait would suffice. However, neither Trump nor Tehran has a particular desire to return to war. The situation with Tehran is clear. Iran did not start this war, and therefore does not want to continue it. However, Tehran does not intend to sign Trump's "set of peace ultimatums." Iran wants to end the war, but on fair terms, which Trump cannot propose to his opponent.

Simultaneously, the U.S. president also wants to end the war, as discontent among American consumers and voters continues to grow. The war negatively impacts the U.S. economy, and Trump may forget about a reduction in key interest rates by the Federal Reserve for a long time. Additionally, in November, Trump's party may lose elections in both chambers of Congress. Thus, the White House leader himself wants to resolve matters in the Middle East as quickly as possible, but how can he do so if Iran is unwilling to accept Trump's ultimatum? Start a new chapter of war? What would that achieve when Iran has already shown and proven to the world that it is ready to fight as long as necessary?

This leads to a situation in which both sides want to end the war, but one demands a series of conditions be met, while the other holds a set of trump cards that allow it to reject foreign ultimatums. The war is on pause, and this is the best option available at the moment. The absence of new escalations, the extension of the temporary truce, and no worsening of the situation with oil and gas in the Middle East is already a positive outcome. The EUR/USD pair is simply undergoing a typical technical correction at this time.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 23 is 68 pips and is categorized as "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1646 and 1.1782 on Thursday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a trend change to bearish. However, the upward trend of 2025 could resume.

The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and formed a "bearish" divergence, signaling a downward pullback. Nearest Support Levels: S1 – 1.1719 S2 – 1.1658 S3 – 1.1597 Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.1780 R2 – 1.1841 R3 – 1.1902 Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair continues its upward movement amid the weakening influence of geopolitics on market sentiment.

The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains extremely negative; thus, we still expect long-term growth in the pair. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1658 and 1.1646 on technical grounds. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant with targets of 1.1841 and 1.1902. The market is gradually distancing itself from the impact of geopolitical factors, while the dollar loses its only driver for growth.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. April 24. The Pound Sterling Outpaces the Euro



The EUR/USD currency pair continued its modest decline on Thursday, and in this article, we will analyze why the euro is falling while the pound is not. Overall, we can say that both the pound and the euro remain relatively stable—not just in the short term (the last two months), but also in the long term. Switching to the daily timeframe shows that the U.S. dollar has only managed another correction.

Importantly, the EUR/USD pair has been unable to drop below 1.1440 during any correction over the past nine months, which marks the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Thus, there is no talk of a long-term downward trend. Yes, we have observed sideways movement for the last nine months (with rare exceptions), but a flat trend can persist indefinitely. It is worth reminding traders that trending movements are sharp and fast, while flat trends are slow and weak. As mentioned over the weekend, we anticipated a corrective decline for both the euro and the pound.

The euro is indeed falling, but the British pound is holding steady. Why? In our view, the issue lies in energy and inflation. First and foremost, it should be remembered that the UK is far less dependent on external energy resource supplies than the European Union. This means that London has felt much more confident than Brussels over the past two months. Additionally, the recent inflation data in the UK shows an increase of only 0.3% in March, while in the eurozone it was 0.7%. Thus, the potential energy crisis triggered by Donald Trump has more serious consequences for the European economy than for the British one. Furthermore, it is important to note that both pairs are currently influenced by technical factors.

Geopolitics has faded into the background, allowing both the euro and the pound to recover in recent weeks. Additionally, there have been no significant geopolitical news items this week. The constant flow of alternating messages about the opening and closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the similar flow regarding negotiations in Pakistan are data that traders no longer react to. What is the point if there are up to ten contradictory messages coming in a single day? The situation in the Middle East may heat up again, and that is a fact.

Therefore, the necessity for a correction is somewhat supported by the current geopolitical situation. However, there have been no significant changes in the positions of the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz over the past seven days. Oil prices remain high, the Strait remains closed, and Tehran and Washington are still unable to reach any agreements, with Donald Trump continuing to exert any possible pressure on Iran. Thus, we believe that the EUR/USD pair will continue to correct, but without serious negative news from the Middle East, the decline will not last long. The dollar has lost its sole support factor.




The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 24 is 64 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1640 and 1.1768 on Friday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a trend change to bearish. However, there could actually be a resumption of the upward trend for 2025. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and formed a "bearish" divergence, signaling a downward pullback.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. April 27. Negotiations Have Stalled



The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Friday, April 24, as it had been throughout the past week. The average volatility over the last five trading days has dropped to 58 pips. This is not particularly low, but it is not high either. As shown in the chart, both volatility and market activity are decreasing. What might this be related to? Certainly, it is tied to geopolitics. It's worth noting that virtually every week, there are enough macroeconomic and fundamental events that could stimulate traders to trade more actively.

However, the market remains focused on geopolitics. As there have been no significant "turning points" in this area recently, the market has "slowed down" and is waiting for events, not merely news. Recent news over the past week, or even two, has become boring. Almost every few hours, there are new reports that negotiations with Iran may resume, that they are set to happen any minute now, that a deal is nearly agreed upon, etc. In the coming hours, contradictory statements arise, leaving the market at a standstill.

Therefore, traders (and we too) have grown weary of reacting to or even analyzing the flow of false and unverified information. Practically every reputable news agency feels obliged to announce that, according to some insider information, "something will happen soon." The fact that none of these insider predictions have materialized doesn't seem to trouble anyone. Thus, like many other experts, we advise focusing on actions rather than words. Actions indicate that there have been no movements in negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

The second round of talks did not take place this past weekend, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi's visit to Pakistan is unrelated to a desire to meet with the American delegation. As we enter the new week, the macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop will be abundant, but it is far from certain that the market will not continue to ignore much of the economic information. Given the situation, there are three central bank meetings, but all three central banks may adopt a wait-and-see approach amid escalating uncertainty over the Middle East and energy prices. A significant series of macroeconomic data? Yes, these are important events, but the market has ignored substantial portions of important macroeconomic information over the last two months.

Therefore, even if there are no geopolitical events this week, it does not mean the market will shift its focus back to fundamentals and macroeconomics. Traders may react to the most critical events, but if volatility remains in the 50-60-pip range, it is unlikely to delight anyone. The EUR/USD pair may continue to correct, as the scenario involving a ceasefire and negotiations has already been priced in. Nonetheless, we still expect growth only from the euro in the medium term.



The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last five trading days as of April 27 is 58 pips, which is considered "average." We anticipate the pair moving between 1.1664 and 1.1780 on Monday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating a bearish trend. However, there could actually be a resumption of the upward trend for 2025. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and formed a "bearish" divergence, signaling a downward pullback.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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