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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for September 19, 2025



The euro has been gradually retreating from its September 17 high. Typically, after the central bank meetings are over and no new trends have been set, investors shift their focus to the balance of economic indicators, which guide monetary policy. Sometimes it seems that retail sales or building permits can't move the exchange rate by 1%, but these releases provide longer-term momentum that can underpin trends for months ahead. The absence of an immediate market response to the Fed's rate change could turn into a medium-term decline for the euro. A cycle of important economic news kicks off next week.

For a medium-term decline in EUR/USD to begin, the price needs to secure a close below the daily MACD line at 1.1720. Then, it needs to break through support at 1.1632, which would confirm the signal and open a path toward 1.1495. If the price finds the resolve to resume growing, the signal will be a breakout above the upper boundary of the new price channel at 1.1919. For now, however, the price is consolidating, gearing up to implement the main bearish scenario.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for EUR/USD on September 22nd



On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its decline, which it was "not at fault" for and did not deserve. Recall that the ECB meeting could reasonably be considered "conditionally hawkish," while the Fed meeting was "dovish." On Thursday and Friday, there were no significant macroeconomic releases in the Eurozone or the U.S. that could have triggered the euro's fall. The problem lay with the British pound, which had a mixed reaction to the Bank of England meeting (the only "dovish" decision was to reduce the volume of the QE program), and then collapsed due to new budgetary problems in the UK. The euro simply followed its "brother," as often happens due to the high correlation between the two currencies. Technically, in the hourly time frame, the situation has not changed at all. The upward trend line remains relevant, and on Friday, the price failed to break through it. Thus, a rebound from this line, as well as from the support level of 1.1750–1.1760, could trigger a new wave of growth in the euro. A consolidation below the trend line would provoke a decline, at least to the Senkou Span B line. On the 5-minute chart, trading signals on Friday are not worth analyzing. There was no macroeconomic background that day, the euro fell following the pound, and volatility was once again not particularly high. During the European session, the price rebounded twice from the 1.1750–1.1760 level, which could have been a signal to go long, but both signals proved false. The pound dragged the euro down all day, while the euro resisted with all its might. COT Report The latest COT report is dated September 16. The illustration above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders had long been "bullish," with the bears only briefly gaining dominance at the end of 2024, which they quickly lost. Since Trump took office as U.S. president for the second time, the dollar has been falling. We cannot say with 100% certainty that the fall of the U.S. currency will continue, but current global developments strongly suggest this scenario. We still see no fundamental factors supporting the strengthening of the euro, while there are plenty of factors for a decline in the U.S. dollar. The long-term downtrend remains in effect, but at this point, does it really matter where the price was heading over the last 17 years? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may trend upward again, but recent events have shown that the war will continue in one form or another. A possible loss of Federal Reserve independence is another powerful pressure factor on the U.S. currency. The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to point to a "bullish" trend. Over the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 4,800, while the number of short positions increased by 3,100. Thus, the net position fell by 7,900 contracts for the week. EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis On the hourly time frame, the EUR/USD pair maintains an upward trend. Over the past few days, the price has been undergoing a correction, but as long as it stays above the trend line, the upward trend remains valid. There were no significant reasons for the euro to fall, but the British pound played a "bearish trick," and technical corrections are a natural occurrence. On Monday, it will be important to determine whether the trend line, which has provided consistent support for the euro, remains relevant.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on September 23, 2025



GBP/USD Yesterday's 0.39% drop in the U.S. dollar index hindered the continuation of the British pound's downward movement. The price returned to the Kijun-sen (MACD) line, and during today's Pacific session, it broke above it and is now pressing against the target resistance at 1.3525.



A daily close above this level opens the path toward 1.3631 — the high from June 13. The Marlin oscillator has also perked up with optimism and returned to the growth zone, supporting the development of a short-term uptrend. On the four-hour chart, the situation is less optimistic. Marlin has not yet entered positive territory, and above the 1.3525 level lies the Kijun-sen line (1.3562), so a consolidation above 1.3525 alone does not yet guarantee growth toward 1.3631.

Only a breakout above the Kijun-sen line (1.3562), with Marlin also moving into positive territory, will fully open the way to the target resistance at 1.3631. A decline below yesterday's low would restore the primary downward movement toward the first target at 1.3364.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on September 24, 2025

USD/JPY After the price bounced from the resistance of the daily MACD line on Monday, it ended up below the balance indicator line.



At the same time, the Marlin oscillator began to turn upward as it approached the boundary with the declining trend zone. If the price breaks above yesterday's high, it will automatically move above the balance line. The target will then open at the MACD line at 148.68. Breaking this resistance will open the next target at 149.38.



On the four-hour chart, the situation has not even shifted to a bearish one — the price remained above the indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator did not settle in the bearish zone. If the price does not consolidate below the MACD line, under the 147.43 level, the current upward reversal will continue to develop. We are waiting for yesterday's high of 147.93 to be broken.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Overview. September 25. Trump the Victor and Peacemaker



On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair once again traded lower—a move we see as completely illogical. However, it's important to remember that the market isn't always trending. Flat (sideways) trading makes up to 80% of the time. Let's jump to the daily timeframe. What do we see? Since early May, the pound has traded between 1.3150 and 1.3780. Yes, it's a fairly wide channel, but we're talking about a long-term timeframe. An upward move could resume or extend even from current positions, and in that case, we'll talk about a trend again. Still, the price can continue to move within this range for quite some time, which is neither surprising nor unusual. We also want to emphasize that movements within a flat do not require any fundamental or macroeconomic justification.

A flat is the result of accumulation or distribution by major players. Surely no one believes that big players only trade when there are major news events, speeches, or reports. This means the current decline in the pair is an illogical move because any event of similar significance didn't precede it. But within a sideways market, such moves are common. We continue to see no prospects for the US currency. Donald Trump remains the main problem for the dollar. Maybe under his administration the stock market or gold is soaring, but in the FX market, the reaction to the Republican's actions is clear and repetitive.

Just recall: Trump wants total control and submission from almost every country in the world. So far, he's failed on many fronts. Take the Federal Reserve, for instance. What has Trump achieved? Nothing. True, he replaced Adriana Kugler with Stephen Miran. Yes, next year Jerome Powell will be replaced by someone who will vote for a "rate cut" at every meeting. But what has Trump actually achieved so far? The war in Ukraine has also not ended—despite Trump's efforts.

For a long time, the US president tried to portray himself as Russia's best friend, but as we see, the Kremlin "didn't buy" the act. Time after time, Trump gives Moscow two weeks to "think about its behavior," but the fact remains: the conflict goes on. Meanwhile, Trump continues to present himself as the chief peacemaker, even angling for a Nobel Peace Prize. But honestly, what war has Trump actually stopped? The war between Pakistan and India? How long did that last—two hours?

The war between Israel and Iran? Conflict in the Middle East has dragged on for decades. Trump simply paused one big, ongoing conflict, using his influence in Jerusalem. Generally, there are more words than actions from the US president. In fact, Trump doesn't seem to overwork himself—by some journalistic calculations, he's spent about a third of his presidential term on golf courses, erecting statues to himself in the process. In short, it remains hard for us to expect any growth from the dollar.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. September 26. The Dollar Continues to Stumble After Powell's Speech



The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Thursday, but had managed to consolidate below the moving average line the day before. In fact, everyone is now used to the constant back-and-forth around the moving average. Over the past month and a half, the pair's movement has been such that a 100-pip rise is followed by an 80-pip fall. In other words, the European currency rises steadily, but very weakly, with frequent corrections and pullbacks. Unfortunately, with such price action, moving averages are almost useless. Moreover, this kind of price movement displays signs of both a trend and a flat, which is important to understand. It's not exactly sideways movement, but corrections account for up to 90% of trend movements.

However, all questions disappear when you switch to the daily time frame. Whatever the movement looks like on the 4-hour chart, on the daily timeframe, it is clear that the European currency has been rising almost non-stop for the ninth consecutive month. Yes, the current upward movement is not as strong as it was during the first six months of the year, but it remains an uptrend, with minimal corrections on the daily chart. On a global scale, the euro remains near its 3-year highs. This week, the market has already faced disappointment a couple of times. One example was Jerome Powell's speech. Honestly, we still don't understand who and why, except for the Fed, to make the most "dovish" moves, when Fed officials have been repeating this mantra for a year and a half now that rates will only change based on macroeconomic data. No one in the FOMC was eager to cut rates at the start of the year or in 2024. No one in the Committee was in a hurry to ease monetary policy.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. September 29. European Inflation, Lagarde, and the Euro's Recovery



During the upcoming week, the EUR/USD pair is expected to attempt to resume its upward trend. This conclusion is based on the current market situation, expectations of major banks, and the forthcoming fundamental and macroeconomic context. Let's break it down. The decline of the European currency over the past two weeks does not cancel the upward trend on either the 4-hour or daily timeframes. On the daily chart, the picture is clear: the dollar is only capable of occasional small corrections. Indeed, over the past week and a half, fundamentals and macro data have supported the U.S. currency, but how many such episodes can you recall in 2025? They are as rare as snow in May. Despite the dollar strengthening toward 1.17, virtually no major bank is betting on further dollar appreciation. There are simply no grounds for such expectations, a point we have repeated for months. Of course, market makers can still buy the U.S. currency, potentially causing further strengthening. However, since we cannot know their plans, our analysis is based strictly on fundamentals and macroeconomics. The euro's fundamental backdrop remains unchanged. There is no chance that the European Central Bank will cut rates again in the near term. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand—despite Jerome Powell's contradictory rhetoric—appears ready for two more rate cuts in 2025. In addition, Donald Trump recently resurfaced with fresh tariffs last week. There are no signs of an end to the global trade war, which has been one of the main drivers behind the dollar's decline in 2025.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for September 30, 2025

EUR/USD Yesterday's bullish impulse in the single currency proved to be weak. The price tried to move further away from the MACD line after breaking above it, but by the end of the day, the upper shadow was larger than the candle body. The Marlin oscillator stalled at the neutral zero line, and this morning even hinted at a reversal downward.



The price is likely to remain in a sideways trend until the U.S. employment data is released on Friday. Even a consolidation below the MACD line (1.1708) would not be a signal for a decline toward the target of 1.1605; the market is simply waiting for Friday's data. A similar situation occurred a month ago, when the euro began to move only after the release of employment figures (green arrow). This time, however, the movement may be downward with a target of 1.1495.



On the four-hour chart, the price has stalled at the balance line. The Marlin oscillator remains in positive territory but is moving horizontally close to the line. A consolidation above the MACD line (1.1774) would signal a further rise to 1.1914, but the probability of this scenario has decreased, raising the possibility of a false breakout. We are waiting for the news on Friday.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: October 1 – The Great Day of the Great Shutdown



As soon as Wednesday, October 1, the U.S. government and all federal institutions may go on leave. No, this isn't the start of vacation season. This is Donald Trump, once again, failing to reach an agreement with the Democrats — and lacking the political leverage to bypass the opposition. This time, U.S. legislation stands in Trump's way: the law requires 60 votes in the Senate to pass the budget for the next fiscal year. Whether Trump forgot about this or anticipated it and prepared accordingly is unclear. Most likely, it's the latter. Either way, whether he forgot or not doesn't really matter. What matters is the shutdown, which could become the first in the past six years. Shutdowns in the U.S. are hardly unusual — there have been around 20 over the last 50 years. Every few years, Democrats and Republicans fail to find common ground. But this particular case is unique. I believe Trump is in a hurry. Why and where he's rushing to are questions worth considering thoroughly. In fact, I'd go a step further and ask: why does Trump so desperately want a Nobel Peace Prize — something he himself makes no secret of? Why does he want to present himself as the world's chief peacemaker, and why has he started a "global restructuring" of the international order? In my view, Trump wants to leave a legacy. The man in the White House realizes that this term may be his last. By the time he is expected to leave office, Trump will be 82 years old. Of course, with good health, you can run a country up to age 100, but Trump is a realist — even if it's not always obvious from his actions. He's criticized Biden for being too old, but in three years, Trump himself will be the same age Biden was when Trump made those comments.



I believe Trump is racing against time because he realizes his own is running out. He's declared himself the greatest president in U.S. history and wants to stand alongside Abraham Lincoln and George Washington. That's why he's pushing for record-breaking growth in the U.S. economy at any cost. That's why he wants to end as many wars as possible. That's why he wants the Nobel Peace Prize, his own Taj Mahal, his own Pyramid of Khufu in the White House backyard, and self-funded statues in his golf clubs. If this isn't preparation for retirement with a sense of accomplishment, I don't know what is. Wave Pattern on EUR/USD: Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. The wave layout remains entirely dependent on the news backdrop tied to Trump's decisions, as well as the internal and external politics of the new White House administration. The current trend segment could extend as far as the 1.25 area. At the moment, a corrective wave four is unfolding, which may already be complete. The upward wave structure remains intact. Therefore, in the near term, I'm only considering buying opportunities. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci.
Wave Pattern on GBP/USD: The wave pattern on GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal structure is becoming harder to read. If wave 4 takes the form of a complex three-wave pattern, the structure will normalize, but even in that case, wave four would be far more complex and extended than wave 2. In my opinion, the best reference point right now is 1.3341, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two failed attempts to break this mark may indicate the market's readiness for new buying momentum.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Overview – October 2. Shutdown May Be Prolonged, but the Dollar Is Still Holding On...



The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday, which began a few days earlier. While the euro came under pressure following the release of eurozone inflation data, the British pound had no such releases and continued to climb without interruption. Overall, the pound is rising, while the dollar continues to fall — a trend that is clearly visible on the daily timeframe. The pair has essentially been in a state of consolidation for over two months, but during that time, the pound never lost more than 400 points.

In fact, the downward correction could be considered completed as early as August 1. So while the pound may not be growing as firmly as in the first half of the year, it's certainly holding its ground. (Of course, this is said half-jokingly — the pound sterling hasn't really done anything to deserve a 15-cent rally in 2025. It was the dollar that collapsed by 15 cents.) If not for the fundamentally disastrous backdrop in the U.S., we would never have seen such a sharp upward move in the pound, a currency that, along with the euro, has only been falling for the past 17 years. It's evident that the British economy is not fundamentally strong enough to justify the high demand for the pound. The UK's economic situation has remained poor since 2016. The current U.S. government shutdown resembles an episode from a new "mini-series from HBO."

It's unlikely that the shutdown will last for months, but this particular stoppage of government operations carries special weight. It doesn't even matter which exact policy issues are to blame for the deadlock between Democrats and Trump. What matters is that for the first time during Trump's second term, Democrats finally have a chance to push back. Let's remember: Trump has passed most major decisions unilaterally, and the entire Republican party has been operating in lockstep under his direction. Because Republicans hold the majority in both chambers of Congress, they haven't needed Democratic approval for most legislation. Currently, however, the Senate must pass a budget for the upcoming fiscal year — and it requires more than a simple 50%+1 majority. For a budget, 60 votes are needed. But there are only 53 Republicans in the Senate, which normally suffices for most legislation, but not for the budget. This gives Democrats a rare opportunity to play a decisive role in 2025 policymaking.

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