Wave Analysis by InstaForex

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for February 28, 2025

Yesterday, the stock market experienced a decline of 1.58% in the S&P 500, while the dollar index rose by 0.83%. The yield on 5-year U.S. government bonds dropped from 4.27% on Monday to 4.05%. This market movement was triggered by Donald Trump's decision to enforce the previously announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, due to their failure to comply with a one-month corrective period aimed at curbing drug transit, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The initial market shock occurred on February 20, when U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth approved Trump's plan to cut the defense budget by 8% over five years. On that day, the S&P 500 fell by 0.43%, although the euro unexpectedly increased.

Currently, the euro faces a critical downward target at 1.0350. If this support level breaks, it could lead to a decline toward 1.0280, represented by the MACD line. Following that, we anticipate a further drop to 1.0135. The Marlin oscillator's signal line has firmly entered the downtrend territory, exerting downward pressure on the price.

On the four-hour chart, the overall trend remains bearish. The price is currently trading below both indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is gaining strength within the bearish zone. At the 1.0350 level, the Marlin may experience a slight slowdown in its decline; however, it is still far from the oversold zone. A brief pause might occur before attempting to reach the next significant target at 1.0280, with a correction expected from the 1.0350 level.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3ESk6cz

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 3, 2025

On Friday, the euro fell by 20 pips, but it has already surpassed that day's high this morning. However, it is likely to continue fluctuating within the range of 1.0350–1.0458 until Thursday, when the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. Even today might be challenging for the euro, as the core CPI for February is projected to decline from 2.7% YoY to 2.5% YoY, while the overall CPI is forecasted to drop from 2.5% YoY to 2.3% YoY. A decrease in inflation could strengthen expectations for a rate cut.

On the other hand, expectations for the U.S. dollar are strengthening. The Manufacturing PMI for February is anticipated to rise from 51.2 to 51.6. If U.S. traders take a more decisive stance, the euro could consolidate below the 1.0350 support level even before the European Central Bank meeting, potentially opening the way to a target of 1.0273 along the daily MACD line.

On the H4 chart, the price is showing a more pronounced sideways movement, aided by a slight divergence with the Marlin oscillator. It is possible that upcoming economic data may not be particularly favorable for the dollar. Today and tomorrow are likely to be a period of waiting.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4ini1DX

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Forecast for March 6, 2025



Yesterday, the British pound experienced a significant upward movement, breaking through the resistance range of 1.2816 to 1.2847. This morning, it continues to rise towards the next target of 1.3001, which corresponds to the low from September 11, 2024. However, the daily Marlin oscillator is indicating signs of exhaustion.

A pullback from the 1.3001 level seems likely. If the resistance is surpassed, the price could increase an additional 100 pips, targeting 1.3101, which aligns with the peak on October 15, 2024.

On the H4 chart, it's clear that the price did not break through the 1.2816 to 1.2847 range smoothly; instead, it formed a brief consolidation within this range, which ultimately helped build momentum for further growth. The Marlin oscillator is moving away from the overbought zone, but the price may still attempt to reach the 1.3001 level.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/41NFKH1

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 10, 2025

February's U.S. employment data, released on Friday, was disappointing. Non-farm payrolls were close to expectations (151,000 versus 159,000), but other indicators showed significant deterioration. The labor force participation rate dropped from 62.6% to 62.4%, overall unemployment increased from 4.0% to 4.1%, and the broader U-6 unemployment rate jumped from 7.5% to 8.0%. In response to these developments and declining government bond yields, the euro gained 48 pips.

So far, signs of a crisis have not fully emerged but are anticipated. Even Federal Reserve officials and key business leaders are hinting at potential economic challenges. Christopher Waller has suggested that the Fed may lower interest rates three times by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the euro is expected to rise further, targeting levels of 1.0949 and 1.1027. Given that the Marlin oscillator is nearing the overbought zone, a correction could occur from one of these levels.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has reset after a sharp decline from its peak on March 5-6. It is now positioned to resume growth with renewed strength, aiming to break above the nearest resistance level.


Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3QXyymk

Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for March 12, 2025

After testing the price channel line on the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair has moved upward, likely entering a corrective phase following the price movement since January 10.

The nearest corrective level is at 149.38, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci level. A breakout above this level would allow the price to continue its correction toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level, targeting 151.30.

On the four-hour chart, the price has moved above the MACD line, and the Marlin oscillator is in the uptrend area. We expect the price to rise toward the initial target level of 149.38.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/41FjRt7

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 13, 2025



Yesterday, U.S. inflation data indicated a slowdown in February, with core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year compared to 3.0% in January, which was also above the forecast of 2.9%. However, the markets were prepared for this news and barely reacted, as media reports suggest they are more concerned about the impacts of trade wars. As a result, the main focus now shifts to indicators for the current month. March data will start to come in after the Federal Reserve's meeting on March 19, and investors are eager to see if the Fed will take any precautionary measures, especially since this meeting is expected to be extended. In the meantime, market sentiment will be influenced by speculators.

The daily chart indicates that the euro's decline from 1.0949 to 1.0882 is merely a technical correction. The Marlin oscillator has pulled back from the lower overbought zone, suggesting that the price has enough space for a deeper correction, potentially down to 1.0667, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last upward movement. The price had risen too far from the MACD line due to emotional trading (by 5.5 figures). To confirm a move towards the first support level at 1.0762, the price must consolidate below 1.0882. Conversely, for the uptrend to continue, the price needs to break above 1.0949, as the 1.0882-1.0949 range serves as a consolidation zone.

The four-hour chart presents complications for both scenarios. A decline might only reach the MACD line around 1.0806, which coincides with the March 10 low. Additionally, it is possible that the price may reverse from the 1.0762 support level. In this case, a brief dip below the MACD line would be seen as a false signal, further reinforcing the uptrend.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4iM9ZVp

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Forecast for March 14, 2025



On Wednesday, the British pound fell by 12 pips, causing the Marlin oscillator's signal line to drop below the support level of 0.0216. This raises the chances of the price testing the range of 1.2816 to 1.2847 before the Federal Reserve meeting on March 19. If the meeting does not significantly impact the pound, this range testing may continue until the Bank of England meeting on March 20.

The nearest obstacle for the price in reaching the target range is the MACD line on the four-hour chart, which is situated around 1.2910. The Marlin oscillator's signal line has slightly widened its consolidation range, now indicated by a gray rectangle.

The price may prefer to move sideways within the 1.2910 to 1.3001 range. In this scenario, a break below the 0.0216 support level on the daily chart by the Marlin oscillator would signal a typical cooldown before potential further growth. Overall, the pound appears to be adopting a wait-and-see approach.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3FIAMDG

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 17, 2025

After Friday's price consolidation below the 1.0882 level, the euro is attempting to rise above this level once again. The expectation is that it will fluctuate within the range of 1.0882 to 1.0949 until the Fed announces its monetary policy. This movement may indicate an intention to continue rising towards the target of 1.1027.

If the euro closes below 1.0882 today, there could be increased volatility on Wednesday, potentially pushing down to the support level at 1.0762 before rebounding with the aim of reaching the target of 1.1027. The Marlin oscillator has declined from the lower boundary of the overbought zone, suggesting that there is potential for upward momentum to build.

On the four-hour chart, the price is rising above the MACD line, which was tested from above on Friday. This reduces the likelihood of breaking through this line in a stable market at 1.0860. It appears the price will continue to consolidate with upward pressure. However, if it consolidates below the MACD line at 1.0860, the likelihood of a wider price range movement on Wednesday will increase.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/41SLdfJ

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 19, 2025

We've arrived at the key event of the week—the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. The interest rate is expected to remain unchanged, but we are eager to see what Jerome Powell will say about the rapidly evolving political and economic landscape. The U.S. economy is facing two major challenges: inflation and a recession. The Fed's perception of which issue is the bigger threat will dictate Powell's tone. Inflation has been the dominant concern in recent years and is on the rise again, ensuring it will be a focal point. The economic slowdown has crossed a critical threshold, but the Fed tends to wait for more data before making any moves, likely indicating a "wait-and-see approach." The Fed has the flexibility to cut rates by 0.5% if necessary, given the current relatively high level. Ultimately, we expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adjust its rate projections, indicating three rate cuts by the end of the year, which may reveal what Powell might leave unsaid. Unfortunately, this does not clarify how the market will react to the Fed's decision; it only highlights the uncertainty surrounding it and the future actions of major players.

On the weekly chart, the price is testing the MACD line, signaling either a possible upward breakout or a decisive downward reversal.

On the daily chart, a divergence has formed between price and the Marlin oscillator, raising further questions rather than providing clarity. On the four-hour chart, the price appears poised, simply waiting for a signal.

Even if we had advance access to Powell's speech, it would provide little insight into the actions of major market players. As mentioned in previous reviews, the U.S. economy seems to be more resilient in its tariff battles with Europe. We expect a medium- to long-term strengthening of the U.S. dollar, though we are uncertain whether that trend will begin today.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.


Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3Y0oIUF

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 20, 2025

The Federal Reserve meeting has concluded, and our expectation that economic risks would be highlighted was correct. Both the accompanying statement and Powell's speech emphasized these concerns. The central bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5% to 1.7%, raised the inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.8%, and increased the unemployment forecast to 4.4%. However, markets, including stocks, did not react negatively. Investors likely anticipated even worse forecasts; in reality, the numbers do not appear bad, and there is no discussion of a recession. The Fed remains cautious and plans to implement two rate cuts by the end of the year.

On the daily chart, the euro has stayed within the range of 1.0882 to 1.0949. The price attempted to break below 1.0882 but was prevented from doing so. Now, we expect the euro to break above 1.0949, which would open the path for further growth towards the target level of 1.1027, set at the low point on September 3, 2024. The price divergence with the Marlin oscillator appears weak and may reconfigure into another pattern.

On the H4 chart, the price briefly dipped below the 1.0882 support level, while the Marlin oscillator made a false move below the zero line. A break above 1.0949, which coincides with a break above the MACD line, will signal a rally towards 1.1027.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4kHsgFm