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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for February 28, 2025
Yesterday, the stock market experienced a decline of 1.58% in the S&P 500, while the dollar index rose by 0.83%. The yield on 5-year U.S. government bonds dropped from 4.27% on Monday to 4.05%. This market movement was triggered by Donald Trump's decision to enforce the previously announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, due to their failure to comply with a one-month corrective period aimed at curbing drug transit, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The initial market shock occurred on February 20, when U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth approved Trump's plan to cut the defense budget by 8% over five years. On that day, the S&P 500 fell by 0.43%, although the euro unexpectedly increased.
Currently, the euro faces a critical downward target at 1.0350. If this support level breaks, it could lead to a decline toward 1.0280, represented by the MACD line. Following that, we anticipate a further drop to 1.0135. The Marlin oscillator's signal line has firmly entered the downtrend territory, exerting downward pressure on the price.
On the four-hour chart, the overall trend remains bearish. The price is currently trading below both indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is gaining strength within the bearish zone. At the 1.0350 level, the Marlin may experience a slight slowdown in its decline; however, it is still far from the oversold zone. A brief pause might occur before attempting to reach the next significant target at 1.0280, with a correction expected from the 1.0350 level.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3ESk6cz
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 3, 2025
On Friday, the euro fell by 20 pips, but it has already surpassed that day's high this morning. However, it is likely to continue fluctuating within the range of 1.0350–1.0458 until Thursday, when the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. Even today might be challenging for the euro, as the core CPI for February is projected to decline from 2.7% YoY to 2.5% YoY, while the overall CPI is forecasted to drop from 2.5% YoY to 2.3% YoY. A decrease in inflation could strengthen expectations for a rate cut.
On the other hand, expectations for the U.S. dollar are strengthening. The Manufacturing PMI for February is anticipated to rise from 51.2 to 51.6. If U.S. traders take a more decisive stance, the euro could consolidate below the 1.0350 support level even before the European Central Bank meeting, potentially opening the way to a target of 1.0273 along the daily MACD line.
On the H4 chart, the price is showing a more pronounced sideways movement, aided by a slight divergence with the Marlin oscillator. It is possible that upcoming economic data may not be particularly favorable for the dollar. Today and tomorrow are likely to be a period of waiting.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4ini1DX
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Forecast for March 6, 2025
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Yesterday, the British pound experienced a significant upward movement, breaking through the resistance range of 1.2816 to 1.2847. This morning, it continues to rise towards the next target of 1.3001, which corresponds to the low from September 11, 2024. However, the daily Marlin oscillator is indicating signs of exhaustion.
A pullback from the 1.3001 level seems likely. If the resistance is surpassed, the price could increase an additional 100 pips, targeting 1.3101, which aligns with the peak on October 15, 2024.
On the H4 chart, it's clear that the price did not break through the 1.2816 to 1.2847 range smoothly; instead, it formed a brief consolidation within this range, which ultimately helped build momentum for further growth. The Marlin oscillator is moving away from the overbought zone, but the price may still attempt to reach the 1.3001 level.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/41NFKH1
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 10, 2025
February's U.S. employment data, released on Friday, was disappointing. Non-farm payrolls were close to expectations (151,000 versus 159,000), but other indicators showed significant deterioration. The labor force participation rate dropped from 62.6% to 62.4%, overall unemployment increased from 4.0% to 4.1%, and the broader U-6 unemployment rate jumped from 7.5% to 8.0%. In response to these developments and declining government bond yields, the euro gained 48 pips.
So far, signs of a crisis have not fully emerged but are anticipated. Even Federal Reserve officials and key business leaders are hinting at potential economic challenges. Christopher Waller has suggested that the Fed may lower interest rates three times by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the euro is expected to rise further, targeting levels of 1.0949 and 1.1027. Given that the Marlin oscillator is nearing the overbought zone, a correction could occur from one of these levels.
On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has reset after a sharp decline from its peak on March 5-6. It is now positioned to resume growth with renewed strength, aiming to break above the nearest resistance level.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3QXyymk
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for March 12, 2025
After testing the price channel line on the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair has moved upward, likely entering a corrective phase following the price movement since January 10.
The nearest corrective level is at 149.38, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci level. A breakout above this level would allow the price to continue its correction toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level, targeting 151.30.
On the four-hour chart, the price has moved above the MACD line, and the Marlin oscillator is in the uptrend area. We expect the price to rise toward the initial target level of 149.38.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
Read more: https://ifxpr.com/41FjRt7
