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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 14, 2024

The euro's neutral situation gained upward momentum yesterday. On the weekly chart, the Marlin oscillator's signal line emerged from the wedge upwards

If the price manages to consolidate above the level of 1.1010 on the daily chart, it could potentially open up a medium-term growth prospect. The first target would be 1.1043, followed by 1.1085—the peak from December 28 of last year.

n the daily chart, the divergence has transformed into a regular upward movement of the Marlin oscillator, which is still far from overbought conditions. Forming a double top is only possible if the price falls from 1.1010.

In the 4-hour chart, the euro continues to rise. The price broke away from the balance line upwards, and the Marlin oscillator entered positive territory. We await key developments at the critical level of 1.1010.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 2, 2024

Following the release of U.S. data on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and personal income/spending from Friday, the dollar index increased by 0.35%. The euro declined by 30 points, settling below the 1.1085 level. The decline paused at the peak level from August 14. Additionally, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has reached the boundary of the declining trend territory and suggests a potential correction. However, the main reason for the strengthening of the bulls is that stock market indices are aiming to set new historical records. If the stock market continues to rise, the euro is unlikely to reach the target supp

Today is a holiday in the U.S. and Canada, and with the ECB expected to lower rates in 10 days, the euro may not challenge the 1.0950 level too soon. Today and tomorrow, the euro will likely test the resistance at 1.1085. A subsequent attempt to reach 1.1010 is possible, as the price is currently trading within the range of 1.1010 to 1.1085. Declining commodity prices in the local situation will help the dollar.

On the H4 chart, the price and oscillator have formed a small but significant convergence indicating a potential correction. We expect the price to reach the indicated level of 1.1085.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on September 3, 2024

Due to the holiday in the United States, the market situation remained unchanged. Strangely enough, this stagnation might continue today; this time, it will be due to an empty economic calendar. The final data on the U.S. Manufacturing PMI is unlikely to have any significant impact. Even if it differs somewhat from the preliminary estimates, its influence will likely be more symbolic, as the market has already largely priced in this factor. The only thing that might affect the situation is possible statements from representatives of the European Central Bank. After all, inflation in the Eurozone is slowing down noticeably faster than in the United States. Therefore, the ECB might hint at a slightly more aggressive easing of monetary policy, which, in turn, could strengthen the U.S. dollar's position. However, such a development is unlikely since central banks do not make decisions based on data alone. They are more interested in the trend over time, and the recent decline in inflation in Europe may be temporary.

The EUR/USD pair is moving within the upper deviation of the psychological level of 1.1000/1.1050, indicating a sustained corrective cycle from the local high of the medium-term trend. In the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator has left the oversold zone but remains in the sellers' area between 30 and 50. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines (MA) point downward, which corresponds to the corrective phase. Expectations and Prospects Stabilizing the price below the 1.1050 mark is sufficient for the next stage of the decline. However, this will only result in a local shift of the support point toward the lower area of the psychological level. The complex indicator analysis points to a corrective price move in the short-term and intraday periods. Indicators point to an upward trend in the medium term.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 4, 2024

Yesterday, September 3rd, was quite eventful: The S&P 500 was down 2.12%, oil was down 4.78%, the dollar index was up 0.07%, and the yield on 5-year U.S. government bonds down 2.09% to 3.63%. Given this turn of events, the likelihood of the euro reversing from the support of the embedded green price channel line is very low. We expect the support at 1.1010 to be breached and the target level of 1.0950 to be reached. The Marlin oscillator on the daily time frame has entered the downtrend territory.

In the 4-hour chart, Marlin is rising against the trend of the daily oscillator and has even formed a slight convergence with the price. There are two possible scenarios here: a market reversal pattern or a standard limited rise—a brief release of oscillator tension before further decline. The reversal could occur either at the zero line or slightly above it, forming a false breakout into the positive territory.

However, what interests us most now is the market reversal pattern. According to the CFTC data, the largest euro position of the current year was accumulated last week. A fresh report will be released on Friday. If the big players plan to knock out the rest of the market participants, the timing is perfect. One of the key upcoming releases is the U.S. labor report for August, due the day after tomorrow. The forecast suggests an increase in new jobs by 160-164,000 compared to 114,000 in July and a decrease in the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.2%. Undoubtedly, such data will lower the still-aggressive market expectations regarding the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, and this could result in the closure of euro purchases.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 5, 2024

Despite yesterday's increase in volatility and the expansion of the sideways range, the euro maintained the boundaries of safe wandering, closing the day at the upper boundary of this range—at the resistance level of 1.1085. The Marlin oscillator continued to develop within a narrow range along the zero neutral line.

Today, the euro will likely decline as we await tomorrow's US employment data. The data is expected to be strong, and the primary scenario for the euro remains bearish. An attack on the support level of 1.1010 is likely. In the 4-hour chart, the price convergence with the Marlin oscillator has been processed.

The price was raised by 67 pips from the day's low. At the resistance level of 1.1065, the price also met the balance indicator line. A downward price reversal from this line tells us that yesterday's rise was a standard correction. A breakdown of the downward movement is possible if the price consolidates above the level of 1.1140, which is marked as a key MACD line.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on September 6, 2024

The EUR/USD pair is in a recovery phase from a recent corrective cycle. The upper deviation of the psychological level of 1.1000/1.1050 serves as a support, where an increase in the volume of long positions was observed. In the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the buyers' area of 50/70, indicating an increase in the volume of long positions for the euro. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines have changed direction from downward to upward, corresponding to the end of the corrective phase. Expectations and Prospects In case of further growth, we expect the euro to recover fully, with a target at the resistance level of 1.1200. This move may indicate an extension of the medium-term upward trend. However, due to the release of the United States Department of Labor report, technical analysis takes a back seat, as speculators will primarily focus on data when making trading decisions. The complex indicator analysis points to the process of the euro's recovery in the short-term, intraday, and medium-term periods.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 9, 2024

The currency market's reaction to Friday's US employment data was surprisingly muted – the dollar index changed by 0.07%, gold dropped by 0.73%, and oil by 2.14%. The stock market reacted strongly, with a decline of 1.73%. In the non-farm sector, 142,000 new jobs were created in August against a forecast of 162,000, with July's figures revised downward by 25,000. Unemployment decreased from 4.3% to 4.2%. The broader U6 unemployment rate increased from 7.8% to 7.9%. However, hourly earnings increased by 0.4% for the month. Overall, our expectations for good data were met. But we don't see the authorities' desire to manipulate the market here; the data came out at the forecast level and maintained a slight intrigue regarding the September rate cut. We believe the rate will be lowered by 0.25%, but some players are still pricing in a 30% probability of a 0.50% rate cut in September and a 41% probability of a 0.50% cut at the December meeting. Hence, the main movement of the dollar strengthening will start from September 18.

On Thursday, September 12, the European Central Bank will lower the rate by 0.25%. Market participants fully anticipate such a decrease, but it has not yet been priced in. We believe that market participants will wait until the Federal Reserve's decision and then start actively buying dollars. Currently, on the daily chart, the euro is in a balanced state—at the support level of 1.1085—and this equilibrium is confirmed by the Marlin oscillator, which is on the zero line. According to the main scenario, the euro needs to consolidate below the support level, and then an attempt can be made to target 1.1010. Generally, we expect the euro to be in the range of 1.0888-1.0905.

In the 4-hour chart, the price is above the balance line, with Marlin in the positive area. Price growth is possible, but it is limited by the MACD line around 1.1113. In general, the sideways movement of the euro is likely today and tomorrow.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 10, 2024

At the end of yesterday, the euro fell by 51 pips. This is probably a continuation of the reaction to Friday's US employment data. The euro can no longer hold back the obvious (reasons) — the imminent European Central Bank rate cut and the restrained pace of the Federal Reserve's rate cut on a locally overbought euro. Germany's CPI for August will be released today, expected to fall from 2.3% y/y to 1.9% y/y. In the UK, July's unemployment rate is expected to fall from 4.2% to 4.1%. The euro may continue its downward slide.

The euro is still within the consolidation range of 1.1030/85 theoretically, but on the daily time frame, the price is already pushing through the nearest embedded line of the descending green price channel. The movement's target is the level of 1.1010. From there, an assault on 1.0950 will begin, reinforced by the MACD line. If the price is not contained, we expect strong movement directly from the moment the ECB cuts rates on September 12th.

In the 4-hour chart, the price consolidated below both indicator lines, with Marlin declining in the negative area. The prevailing short-term trend is downward.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 11, 2024

If the debate between Donald Trump and Joseph Biden was a real disaster, yesterday's debate with Kamala Harris was much smoother and didn't cause any panic. So, the markets were able to ignore them. Investors can now calmly focus solely on U.S. inflation, especially since the rate of consumer price growth is expected to slow from 2.9% to 2.6%. This would likely convince the markets of a 50-basis-point cut in the Federal Reserve's interest rate. Thus, there is a high likelihood of a significant weakening of the U.S. dollar.

After testing the previous week's local low, the EUR/USD pair has resumed its corrective cycle. However, this movement didn't lead to any radical changes; the price merely returned to the upper deviation area of the psychological level of 1.1000/1.1050. In the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the lower 30/50 range, indicating bearish sentiment among market participants. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point downwards, which coincides with the direction of the price movement. Expectations and Prospects Stabilizing the price below the 1.1000 mark is necessary for the next phase of the decline. However, this would only shift the local support level to the lower region of the psychological range. Until that happens, traders are considering a price rebound as the main scenario on the market. The complex indicator analysis suggests a price rebound in the short term, while indicators point to a downward cycle in the intraday period.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 12, 2024

The slowdown in inflation in the United States turned out to be more significant than even the most optimistic forecasts, yet the situation in the currency market remained unchanged. Almost immediately after it was revealed that the consumer price growth rate had slowed from 2.9% to 2.5%, major media outlets began focusing on core inflation, particularly in its monthly measure rather than the annual one. Core inflation increased by 0.3%. Although the U.S. central bank never mentions this indicator and is thus largely insignificant, the media started claiming that the Federal Reserve will slowly lower interest rates because of core inflation. As a result, the media frenzy somewhat balanced out the actual data, leaving the market in its previous position. Today, all eyes are on the European Central Bank's board meeting. The market has long been prepared for the refinancing rate to be lowered from 4.25% to 4.00%, so this fact will not affect investor sentiment. Everything will depend on the statements ECB President Christine Lagarde may make during the subsequent press conference, particularly regarding the central bank's future actions. The market is concerned only with the pace of monetary policy easing at least until the end of this year. If the head of the ECB announces even one more rate cut, it will substantially boost the U.S. dollar, allowing it to continue strengthening its position.



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