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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 17, 2024


The dollar was steady despite relatively good data on retail sales. In fact, their growth rate in the United States slowed from 2.6% to 2.3%. The thing is that the growth rate was expected to slow down from 2.3% to 2.1%. So in theory, the dollar should have strengthened somewhat. However, the general sentiment on the dollar is quite negative, as investors expect the Federal Reserve to start lowering its interest rate soon. Thus, the retail sales data simply supported the dollar, preventing it from falling further. Apparently, today we expect a repeat of yesterday's scenario. Sentiments about the Fed's monetary policy still weighs on the dollar. It will be supported by the industrial production data, whose growth rate in the United States should accelerate from 0.1% to 0.4%. But the eurozone inflation data as a whole can not be considered, as the final data are published, designed only to confirm the preliminary estimates, the market has already taken into account.

EUR/USD is moving around the resistance level of 1.0900, which indicates that the bullish sentiment is still in force. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area of 50/70, which suggests that the euro may rise further. On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which reflects the quote's movement. Outlook Based on the absence of a full-scale correction, we can conclude that there's a high volume of long positions on the euro. Rising above the level of 1.0900 may lead to a new round of growth, where buyers will face the psychological level of 1.1000. As an alternative scenario, traders are considering movement along the level of 1.0900. The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term and intraday periods, indicators are providing an upward signal.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 18, 2024

Despite excellent industrial production data, with growth rates in the United States accelerating from 0.3% to 1.6%, the dollar still weakened somewhat. What's even more intriguing is the fact that this happened long before the industrial production data was published. And even before the final inflation data was released in the eurozone. Although they certainly couldn't have influenced anything, as they completely matched estimates. Apparently, this is how the market prepares for the Federal Reserve drawing closer to an interest rate cut. The market is confident that this will happen as early as September. However, today, market participants will focus on the European Central Bank's board meeting. And although the ECB's interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, given the inflation dynamics and extremely weak macro data, ECB President Christine Lagarde may still hint at another rate cut. Thus, indicating that the disparity in interest rates between the dollar and the euro could grow even more in favor of the greenback. As a result, the dollar could retreat to the levels seen at the start of yesterday's trading.

As the volume of long positions rose when EUR/USD settled above the 1.0900 level, the price moved towards the main psychological level of 1.1000. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI locally reached the overbought zone, but it did not hit any of the critical levels. For this reason, buying volumes still have the potential to rise. On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which reflects the quote's movement. Outlook In case the pair rises further, the quote may reach the psychological level, but it is important to take note of the euro's overbought status. Thus, the pair could pull back or become stagnant within the boundaries of the psychological level. An increase in buying volumes may take place after the price settles above the 1.1050 level. The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term and intraday periods, indicators are providing an upward signal.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 19, 2024


The European Central Bank was widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. What came as a surprise were the Bank's extremely pessimistic assessments of the eurozone economy. This suggests not just further easing of monetary policy, but possibly a more aggressive rate cut. Moreover, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the next interest-rate meeting is "wide open", hinting that another cut is possible. So, it should not be surprising that the euro actively fell on these remarks. Nevertheless, it is likely to be temporary. The market has long been anticipating the ECB's rate cuts. The main focus now is the upcoming rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, once the media starts discussing this topic more actively, the euro will likely rise again. It is quite possible that within just a couple of days, the market will return to the levels seen at the start of yesterday's trading.

The volume of long positions on the EUR/USD pair decreased within the lower range of the psychological level of 1.0950/1.1000. As a result, a pullback occurred, causing the price to drop below the 1.0900 mark. The RSI dropped below the average level of 50 in the 4-hour time frame during the price pullback, indicating an increase in the volume of short positions on the euro. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, two out of three moving average lines are intertwined, indicating a slowdown in the upward cycle. However, these are initial signs of a slowdown, which do not change the overall trend. Outlook If the price settles below 1.0900 by the end of the week, the pair may enter a corrective phase. Otherwise, the euro's local weakness may benefit the bulls, leading to a new stage of growth. Complex indicator analysis points to a corrective move in the short-term and intraday time frames.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator analysis: Daily review of GBP/USD on July 22, 2024

Trend Analysis (Fig. 1) Today, GBP/USD may start moving upward from the 1.2908 level (the close of Friday's daily candle) with a target of 1.2941 – the 23.6% retracement level (red dotted line). The price will likely rise from this level with a target of 1.2980 – the 14.6% retracement level (red dotted line).

Fig. 1 (daily chart) Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator Analysis – Up; Fibonacci Levels – Up; Volumes – Up; Candlestick Analysis – Down; Trend Analysis – Up; Bollinger Bands – Up; Weekly Chart – Up. General Conclusion: Today, GBP/USD may start moving upward from the 1.2908 level (the close of Friday's daily candle) with a target of 1.2941 – the 23.6% retracement level (red dotted line). The price will likely rise from this level with a target of 1.2980 – the 14.6% retracement level (red dotted line). Alternative Scenario: The pair may attempt to continue the downward movement from the level of 1.2908 (the close of Friday's daily candle) with a target of 1.2820 – the 8 EMA (blue thin line). The price will likely rise from this line with a target of 1.2980 – the 14.6% retracement level (blue dotted line).

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of NZD/USD Commodity Currency Pairs, Tuesday July 23, 2024.

With the appearance of deviations between price movements and the MACD Histogram indicator on the 4-hour chart of the NZD/USD commodity currency pair, in the near future there will be a strengthening correction in the Kiwi even though currently the bias is still weak, which is confirmed by the price movement which is below the EMA 20 & EMA 50, but as long as the strengthening correction does not broken above the 0.6061 level, NZD/USD will have the potential to weaken again to the 0.5930 level as the main target and if momentum and volatility support it, NZD/USD will fall to the 0.5839 level.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of GBP/USD Main Currency Pairs, Wednesday July 24, 2024.

The cable on the 4-hour chart is still in a bullish condition where this condition is confirmed by the position of the EMA 50 which is still above the EMA 200 (Golden Cross). However, currently there is a weakening correction and has the potential to bring GBP/USD to the level of the 1.2845-1.2829 area. However, as long as the downward correction does not broken below the 1.2775 level, GBP/USD will strengthen again because this is confirmed by the appearance of deviations between price movements and the MACD Histogram indicator and the existence of a Failing Wedge pattern. where based on these two indicators, GBP/USD has the potential to appreciate stronger to the level of 1.2941 and if momentum and volatility support it, GBP/USD will continue its strengthening to the level of 1.3043.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 25, 2024

The forex market continues to tread water despite the release of economic reports. According to preliminary assessments, European business activity indices have all declined, while only the manufacturing sector's business activity index showed a decrease in the US. Conversely, the composite index and the services PMI data showed growth and exceeded forecasts. Nevertheless, this had no impact on the situation. The weak eurozone data only prevented the dollar from falling. Almost simultaneously, corporate media began promoting the idea of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in July. This idea may gain traction and pressure the market, contributing to the dollar's weakness. Considering that today's macro data will have a minor impact, as changes in unemployment claims are expected to be purely symbolic, the market will likely gradually move towards pushing for the dollar's decline.

EUR/USD is in a corrective phase, trading from the lower area of the psychological level 1.0950/1.1000. As a result, the quote has dropped more than 100 pips, which fits within the cyclical component of the upward trend. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area of the 30/50 range. However, it touched the oversold level, indicating an excessive volume of short positions in the euro. During the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs point downwards, aligning with the corrective cycle's direction. Outlook The euro may reach the 1.0800 level if the corrective phase remains intact. However, based on the technical signs of the euro's oversold conditions in the short term, selling volumes may eventually fall, which, in theory, will lead to the end of the corrective cycle. In terms of complex indicator analysis, the volume of long positions may likely rise in the short term. Meanwhile, the bearish bias persists in the intraday period.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 26, 2024

The situation in the market remains unchanged, and in general, the changes have been purely superficial for the entire week. This is partly due to an almost empty economic calendar. On the other hand, after the sharp increase in political uncertainty in the United States over the past weekend, following Joe Biden's announcement of his withdrawal from the election race, the situation had noticeably become more stable by Monday evening. This also contributed to the normalization of the currency market. Moreover, while at the beginning of the week, American media were trying to hype the potential for an interest rate cut this month, by mid-week, it seemed that everyone had forgotten about it. It appears that nothing will change today either, especially with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting approaching in the middle of next week. The media coverage will likely intensify on Monday, with countless predictions and discussions about the possibility of interest rate cuts.

The corrective cycle slowed down around the 1.0825 level. This was followed by a pullback-stagnation phase, characterized by a typical realignment of trading forces. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area of the 30/50 range, which suggests that the bearish bias remains intact. In the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs point downwards, aligning with the corrective cycle's direction. Outlook Assuming the bearish sentiment persists, the euro could fall to 1.0800. However, it is important to consider that the upward trend generally remains intact, and the current correction still fits within its cyclical phase. Therefore, it is crucial to carefully analyze potential support levels from which the price could initiate a rebound, possibly marking the beginning of a recovery process in the euro. In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short term, technical indicators lack stable signals due to the stagnant phase. Meanwhile, in the intraday period, the indicators reflect a bearish cycle.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 29, 2024



Considering the empty economic calendar, it's no surprise that market conditions remain unchanged. The dollar is treading water. This situation will likely persist until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting occurs on Wednesday. It's not just about the meeting itself but also about the lack of macro data.

The corrective cycle slowed down around the 1.0825 level. This was followed by a pullback-stagnant phase characterized by a typical realignment of trading forces. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI is moving along the middle level of 50, indicating a stagnant phase. On the same chart, two of the three moving averages of the Alligator Indicator intersect, indicating a slowdown in the downward cycle. Outlook The bearish movement will come into play if the price falls below the 1.0825 mark. In this scenario, there is a high probability of reaching the 1.0800 level with an attempt to break through it. As for the bullish scenario, it considers the end of the corrective cycle relative to the current values, with a gradual increase in the volume of long positions. In this case, the price will gradually return to the values of the local high of the upward cycle. Complex indicator analysis indicates a stagnant phase in the short- and intraday time frames.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 30, 2024

Last week, the mainstream US media hinted at the possibility of an interest rate cut as early as the Federal Open Market Committee's July meeting. Many expected the current week to begin with further development of this topic. However, nothing of the sort happened. On the contrary, everyone unanimously spoke about maintaining interest rates at their current levels. This has led to a substantial increase in the US dollar. But it would be rash to anticipate a continuation of this trend. There is speculation that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might almost directly suggest the possibility of lowering the interest rate following the September meeting. Previously, Powell had never given any indications about the timing of the rate cut. This prospect will likely restrain the dollar from further growth. Therefore, today, we are likely to see consolidation around current levels.

The EUR/USD pair managed to strengthen its short positions during a brief process of regrouping trading forces. As a result, a new local low was established last week, with the quote approaching the support level of 1.0800. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area of 30/50, indicating the appeal of short positions in the market. Regarding the Alligator indicator on the same time frame, the moving average lines are pointing downward, which corresponds to a descending cycle. Expectations and Perspectives To strengthen the corrective cycle, the euro must stabilize below the 1.0800 level. Otherwise, market participants may use this level as support, potentially leading to a gradual recovery of the euro. Complex indicator analysis indicates a downward cycle in the short-term and intraday time frames.

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