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Stocks, ETFs, Options, Commodities & Currencies

This is a discussion on Stocks, ETFs, Options, Commodities & Currencies within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Protecting Yourself with Gold, OIL and Index ETF’s THE OIL BEAR MARKET IS ABOUT TO END Crude oil and energy ...

          
   
  1. #131
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    NEXT FINANCIAL CRISIS Part III OIL

    Protecting Yourself with Gold, OIL and Index ETF’s

    THE OIL BEAR MARKET IS ABOUT TO END

    Crude oil and energy stocks are tricky to navigate in a situation like this where the equities market is nearing a bull market top.

    It is critical to remember that when the US stock market turns down and starts a bear market virtually all stocks and commodities will fall in value including oil and energy stocks. Investors need to understand that even though the price of crude oil is nearing a bottom it could and will likely stay low for a considerable amount of time “IF” the stock market turns down.

    Over the last 100 years we have seen nearly 30 bear markets. The average length of a bear market is 18 months and has an average decline of 30%.

    I do feel currency problems and a war breakout will be bullish for both oil and gold. So if we get a bear market in equities, and a war oil and oil should rally while stocks in general fall.

    But if we do not have those sever crisis’ then if gold and oil break below their critical support level which is the red line on the charts and a bear market in stocks start you do not want to be long stocks or commodities.

    PRICE CHART OF OIL


    The chart below shows the line in the sand for the price of crude oil. If this level is broken with a monthly bar close below $43 per/barrel I think $30-$33 will be the next stop and the low for the oil market. It seems everyone is bullish on precious metals and have been buying like crazy.



    PART 3 CONCLUSION:

    In short, I feel crude oil will has or will find a bottom within the next couple months. Long term the value is great, but we must be aware that if equities start a bear market it will be best close all equity positions and wait for the bear market to subside. When the time is right investing in crude oil and energy stocks which pay high dividends will generate life changing gains and an income stream. Patience is the key.

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  2. #132
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    AlgoTrades Weekly Forecast Video




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  3. #133
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    A sudden economic collapse is on the way



    A SUDDEN ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IS ON THE WAY


    It is more critical than ever in our history to hedge against economic collapse, especially this year of 2015 and the autumn of this year.

    Seven experts from around the world agree with this impending collapse, and they include The Jerome Levy Forecast, John Ing, Bill Fleckenstein, Paul C. Roberts, Phoenix Capital, Gerald Celente and Ron Kirby.

    You have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to profit and survive when a sudden economic collapse arrives in 2015. Great chaos and confusion is going to accompany the crash. There are 3 primary ways you can profit from it. One is investing into gold shares, coins and bullion. The second is investment into silver. The third is that you can diversify a percentage of your holdings into an inverse Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).

    When the crash occurs it will be too late to invest in the ETF market. The financial sector of the market will be virtually destroyed. Inverse ETFs , gold and silver will skyrocket to highs that you’ve never seen before.

    You need to know the timing since it’s critical to invest at least 2 weeks prior to the event itself. The shadow government knows that the $18 Trillion in U.S. debt and the 1 Quadrillion in derivatives in the market are not manageable, nor can it ever be repaid. Their only plan is for a crash, to be followed by a devaluation. The end result is a financial tsunami the likes of which you have never seen before.

    The Global Economic Collapse of 2015 book covers the history you need, the facts you need and a detailed description of the 2015 strategies you must employ. This book provides you with the tools you need, and the precise timing of the engineered crash to occur later this year.

    The Great Depression of 2015 is going to happen, but you can profit from it. In this book Investigative Journalist David Meade explains how. A chilling look at the facts, graphs and cycles behind America’s next economic collapse.

    There is a pattern of economic crashes occurring approximately every seven years dating back to the Great Depression. The Great Depression suffered its worst year in 1931, then later we have the Arab Oil Embargo, the S&L crisis, Black Monday, the 1994 Bond Massacre, the 2001 NASDAQ crash, and the 2008 Financial Collapse. Each occurred at the very end of a 7-year economic cycle.

    There is an additional mystery to this cycle which makes it absolutely extraordinary. This seven year cycle also lines up with the 7 and 49 year cycles of land rest and jubilee debt forgiveness that God commanded the Israelites. This is called the Schmita Cycle. We’ll cover this. It is the “cycle of cycles” that economists have been looking for. We are on the verge of the greatest depression in history, and with it the most opportunity to profit.

    There is a plan to destroy the US Dollar and not to pay back the 100 Trillion in unfunded liabilities. The elite would prefer to simply transfer their personal holdings to Euros and gold. Their plan is to divest American assets, sell the dollar, renege on all debts and start with a brand new currency. That plan is revealed here.

    This book will show you the cycles, analyze the inevitable outcome and give you the information you need to profit from the coming economic collapse. Get ready for the most amazing buying opportunity of your lifetime. Gold strategies, Silver strategies, gold stock strategies and much more are covered in this one-of-a-kind manual.

    INTRODUCTION – FROM THE AUTHORS



    • Oil & Geopolitics
    • The Timing and Cause of the Global Economic Collapse of 2015
    • World Gold Shares
    • The History of Gold
    • How to Develop a Gold and Silver Portfolio
    • Silver Investing
    • Creative Non-Paradigm Planning and Thinking

    I have not found any other books that allow the investor to safely re-balance their portfolio from their home office, without leaving there. It is written as an eBook, for ease of search ability (just enter Ctrl F and you can find any search term or topic you want), and for ease of research ability.

    I am an Investigative Journalist, a cryptographer and have been employed at the Pentagon and Fortune 500 Companies. I’m the author of close to 10 books. Enjoy this one!

    David Meade and Chris Vermeulen



    The Global Economic Collapse Of 2015

    TABLE OF CONTENTS


    • You Must Buy Gold
    • Seven Experts Who Agree With Me
    • The 7-year Cycle and 2015
    • The U.S. Research Project
    • You Must Know History to Understand the Present
    • Oil, Geopolitics and War
    • Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver
    • Bullion Portfolios
    • Gold Stocks Around the World
    • How To Protect Yourself Using Index, Gold & Oil ETFs
    • Emergency Preparedness
    • Non-Paradigm Thinking


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  4. #134
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    Logical 4 Month Market Forecast Gold, Oil, Stocks & Bonds

    Everyone is looking for the holy grail of the financial market which will tell what will happen next in stocks, commodities, bonds etc… Knowing that the holy grail of trading does not exist I am going to step out on a limb and share my four month stock market forecast along with commodities and bonds.

    It is vital that you understand this is a 2-4 month forecast only and as the market evolves my outlook will change as I follow price action as closely as possible.

    Here are some key points you need to know:


    1. Bonds should perform well for a few months and possibly a long time until the bear market in US stocks takes hold and is well under way. BUT, the bond bubble will burst eventually when rates start to climb. This could be June, or much later in the year but until then I expect them to rise as the safe haven.
    2. Commodities typically outperform equities during the late staged of the bull market which is what I feel the US stock market is. Resource stocks and resource rich countries like Canada should hold up well, and possibly make new highs going into summer.
    3. Notice how gold and oil have moved from opposite corners of the chart compared to the US and Canadian stock indexes.
    4. During the 2000 and 2008 bear market we saw gold, silver, oil and mining stocks get hit very hard in the second half of the bear market. Will this happen again? I do not think it will because this time rates are at zero and there is only one way to go when they are at the bottom… Up!. This means stocks and bonds will likely both enter a bear market, maybe not at the same time, but they will eventually. This means the only places to protect your capital will be commodities, resource based investments, or simply cash CAD & USD.



    Take a look at this 10 year bond price overlaid on the S&P 500 index. So far this year bonds have popped and rallied above short term resistance which we have seen in the past. Big money is rotating into bonds for the time being and this is a warning sign of a stock market top.



    In short, safe havens for investor’s capital will be more of a dance during the next bear market in US equities.

    With many countries devaluing their currencies and a potential bull market in commodities I expect the Canadian Loonie and US Green Back to hold the value if not rise over the next year or two.

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  5. #135
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    Year 2000 All Over Again How Will You Play It This Time?

    Recently business and financial guru Mark Cuban wrote an article about why this tech bubble is going to be worse than the tech bubble of 2000. This made me take another look at the long term charts again, but instead of looking up the NASDAQ or the tech sector I decided to check out gold mining stocks, gold price and the Dollar index.

    From looking at the price action among the precious metals sector and the dollar it looks and feels like these markets are very close to repeating what happened in the year 2000.

    The chart below is a monthly chart looking all the way back to 1996. I have color coded areas of the chart that represent weak and strong times for the price of gold.



    Key Points:



    1. The US Dollar is trading roughly at the same level and trending higher as it was in 2000.
    2. Rising dollar is neutral/negative on commodity prices and resource stocks like gold miners.
    3. Gold price struggled as the dollar rose in value.
    4. Gold stocks fell sharply during the last year of their bear market.
    5. Gold stocks bottomed before physical gold by several months.


    Concluding Thoughts on Dollar, Miners & Gold Price:


    In short, I feel most of the downside damage has already been done to the price of gold. Gold stocks on the other hand could still get roughed up for a few more months before finding a bottom.
    Money is likely to continue rolling into the dollar as a safe haven and this will keep gold and silver prices relatively flat. But once the dollar starts to show signs of increased volatility (top) similar to 2000 – 2001 money will find its way into other currencies and precious metals as the new trade and safe haven.


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  6. #136
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    How to Know When a Bull Market Is About to End Part I

    Knowing when a bull market is about to end is critical for both traders and investors. Why? Because once a bull market ends the price movement characteristics of stocks and indexes change dramatically and require different strategies to be used in order to profit from falling prices and increased volatility.

    Over the next couple of weeks, we will be expanding on this topic to add several more parts because there are some really exciting things you should know as we move towards 2018.

    So, let’s kick things off with the first few data points that tell us that the bull market is about to end.

    Gordon Long put things into perspective stating:

    – The long-term CAPE/VIX ratio suggests a strong possibility of a US Recession in 2018.
    – The VIX is in a clear falling wedge suggesting historic lows will soon end.
    – The Shiller CAPE at ~30 is currently at the third highest level in recorded US Market history. Chances of it falling in 2018 are extremely high.
    – Historical CAPE/VIX ratio is signaling an extreme reading and points to weakness.
    This, the CAPE/VIX Ratio chart, clearly shows the extended levels of asset valuations in relation to previous bubble economies. The expansion of this ratio from the 2009 lows is massive.


    Additionally, this expansion correlates directly with the Fed’s Quantitative easing programs. We can see that Fed policies have backed a majority of this move to drive economic and asset valuation levels higher resulting in what could possibly be one of the biggest bubble economies ever created.

    Just look at the chart below of the SP500 index price and
    the Feds quantitative easing programs…




    The most interesting component of the chart above is the move higher after the US Elections. This move was made without a Fed based QE effort. We believe it is the final Euphoria move of the bull market. Typically, the first year of a new president is also a very strong year for stocks, so the move is likely a blend of a presidential rally, and investor psychology pushing stock evaluations and prices sky high.

    Investor Sentiment Cycle




    We don’t expect anything massive to disrupt this rally currently, but we are cautious and urge all investors to be cautious as well. Investing long-term capital into the stock market at this level knowing the end is near, carries the maximum financial risk for investors.

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    Signs That This Bull Market Is On Its Last Leg Part II

    First, let’s take a look at the “Hindenburg Omen” which was developed by Jim Miekka as an early warning of a stock market correction. While it’s not super effective in terms of timing market turns it can be very useful in assessing the overall strength of an uptrend.

    The current indicator shows a number of these omens triggered on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ. While the indexes and many of their components have been reaching new highs, an equally large number of components have been making new lows, as well. This suggests that the market is indecisive and probably at a turning point ( the hallmark of a major market peak). Of course, a similar scenario can occur during a falling market when new lows are numerous but new highs begin to rise rapidly. The latter condition would suggest that such market indecision could be an early buy signal in a falling market.

    Hindenburg Omens Chart

    This chart shows a running total of these omens on the S&P 500 index chart. It is fairly clear that when these flames start rising to levels like they are now, it’s time to start worrying about a correction in the stock market. This indicator does tell us that a bear market is starting by any means, it simply warns us that we should see a decent pulling in price to cleanse/resent the market internals, and investors sentiment.

    Our second data set we find interesting as it suggests the stock market may be setting up to repeat history in an odd and dangerous manner. As market technicians, part of our job is to work with numbers, find patterns and attempt to predict future price moves in US and Global markets. As you can imagine, it is not always easy to accurately predict the future.

    We’ll start by looking at the price activity leading up to the 2000 DOT COM bubble burst. Our analysis focuses on the similarities in price action setting up this price move.

    We will let the charts do all the talking as they show the picture clearly.

    2000 DOT COM – XCI Index Chart


    2017 DOT COM – XCI Index Chart



    We have been watching for sings and patiently waiting for the next major market top for over a year. Why?

    Because once a market top looks to have formed, we must adjust all our long-term portfolio holdings into different asset classes with cash holdings being a huge position.

    Stock prices typically fall 7 times faster than they rise so just imagine being properly positioned for a bear market with a portion of your position knowing you could make 7 years of slow painful growth in only 8-14 months when the bear market starts. I recently did a seminar talking about his and how one can use inverse ETF’s and short selling to profit from the next financial downturn, which will eventually happen, and we will be ready for it.

    In fact, Bank of America said: “End of bull market coming in 2018”

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  8. #138
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    Where are Cycles for 2018 Heading?

    January 11, 2018

    [/URL]Chris Vermeulen is at heart a cycle guy. He sees a rally coming in the US Dollar for the next couple of months, along with a pause in precious metals. He believes that the second half will be the time that gold, etc., breaks out. Volatility is increasing in equities and commodities. Bigger up days and bigger down days until the momentum reverses in the various markets. We’re coming to an end in the stock bull market, but they’re still extremely strong. Stocks could have reversed in 2016, however, Trump literally saved the market from a major decline. Trumphoria is still alive and well. There’s just no fear in the market. Such stages could extend much further than anyone believes possible. Chris believes the Utility Sector is oversold and out of favor right now. They could be a very good buy.

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    February 2018 Market Crisis What Next?

    The recent downside moves in the US majors did freak a lot of people out. It was something that startled people and pushed a panic button for many. Certainly, the rotation in the VIX and volatility related ETN’s pushed many people over the edge. In fact, recent news is that these volatility related ETN’s exasperated the selloff as the VIX shorts were pushed out of positions and into a protectionist mode with the massive spike in volatility. As the old floor trader saying goes “want to know what causes the markets to crash? Buyers that turn into sellers to protect from unwanted losses”.
    In fact, the fear and selling were so strong it sent the safe havens tumbling lower, which we took advantage of trading the DUST gold miners ETF for a quick 20% profit.

    First, we have strong economic and fundamental US and global data that is showing increases in the global economy, GDP, output, employment and more. We are still seeing price appreciation and strong activity in most locations which indicates the top has not formed yet. Therefore, we believe this February market crisis is, as of right now, a unique instance of a “shakeout” after a lengthy period of very low volatility. Almost like the market needed to “breathe” and in order to do that, it needed to roll out of a low volatility range. Now that this is taking place now. We believe the markets are setting up for a very quick FLAG/Pennant formation that will prompt a burst higher towards a March 15th peak.

    Stocks, ETFs, Options, Commodities & Currencies-us500index-w1-fx-choice-limited.png


    Certainly, there is the risk of further downside price activity. Certainly, some news item could come out in the future that could drive the markets substantially lower. We believe the US and Global markets are strong fundamentally and that the new growth in the economic output will continue to try and push equities higher as expectations of increased global economic activity continues. Immediately, we are targeting the March 15th price peak.

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  10. #140
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    VIDEO: Price Forecast SP500, Gold, Miners, and Oil


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