Daily Forex Analysis By FXGlory

EURJPY Technical Analysis for 06.05.2024







Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/JPY exchange rate analysis reflects interactions between the Euro and the Japanese Yen, influenced by economic, political, and geopolitical events within Europe and Japan. Upcoming economic releases like Spanish Unemployment Change, French and German Services PMIs, and German Trade Balance are poised to impact the Euro. These indicators, coupled with speeches from European central bank officials, could sway EUR/JPY dynamics, particularly through shifts in investor sentiment and intra-day trading volatility.


Price Action:

The recent trading sessions on the H4 chart show a pullback with the last three candles closing higher, suggesting a potential recovery or a short-term bullish reversal in EUR/JPY. The current candle formation indicates a continuation of this trend with a slight uptick in buying pressure, possibly challenging the upper levels of recent trading ranges.


Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud: The price is below a thickening cloud, indicating potential resistance overhead. This suggests a bearish sentiment in the medium term.

MACD: The MACD line has crossed below the signal line but shows signs of curling upwards, hinting at a possible regain in upward momentum.

RSI (14): The RSI is at 45, reflecting neither overbought nor oversold conditions but indicates the potential for price recovery following recent declines.

Standard Deviation (20): Currently at 1.5811, suggesting moderate market volatility and some degree of price instability.


Support and Resistance:

Support: The recent lows around 164.480 provide a short-term support level.

Resistance: The recent high near 168.290 and the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud serve as resistance levels.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The EUR/JPY technical analysis chart currently displays potential for a short-term bullish recovery within a broader bearish context. The upcoming European economic news could introduce volatility, influencing the pair's short-term trajectory. Traders should monitor these releases closely, as positive news may strengthen the Euro, testing resistance levels, while negative news could reinforce the bearish trend. Risk management and vigilant monitoring of economic indicators are advisable.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FxGlory
06.05.2024

EURCHF Technical Analysis for 07.05.2024






Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Recent economic data releases across Europe provide a mixed yet cautiously optimistic outlook for the Euro, influencing the EUR/CHF exchange rate. The performance in service sectors across major European economies has generally exceeded expectations:
Spanish Services PMI reported at 56.2, slightly above the forecast and previous figures, suggesting robustness in Spain's service sector.
Italian Services PMI showed a minor dip to 54.3 from 54.6, indicating a slight contraction but still reflecting overall sectoral strength.
French Final Services PMI marked a significant improvement to 51.3 against a forecast of 50.5, pointing to expansion contrary to expectations.
German Final Services PMI and the overall Eurozone Final Services PMI both posted solid figures, indicating ongoing resilience in the services sector despite broader economic challenges.
Additionally, the Sentix Investor Confidence index improved to -3.6, better than both the previous -5.9 and the expected -4.8, suggesting a recovery in investor sentiment within the Eurozone.


Price Action:
The EUR/CHF pair has responded to these economic indicators with a notable trend on the H4 chart. After a recent pullback to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, the pair is potentially setting up for a bullish reversal. This technical posture is supported by the RSI which remains neutral, hinting at neither overbought nor oversold conditions, thus supporting a potential for price recovery.
The combination of stronger-than-expected service sector performance and improving investor confidence could underpin the Euro's strength against the Swiss Franc. Technically, the EUR/CHF pair seems primed for a bullish movement, suggesting an opportune moment for traders to consider long positions, especially as the market sentiment aligns with these fundamental improvements on EURCHF forex pair.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI Indicator: The Relative Strength Index is currently stabilizing around the mid-line, suggesting balanced market conditions without overt signals of overbought or oversold states. This stabilization is particularly noteworthy after the price touched the Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the pullback may have provided sufficient consolidation for a new bullish momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement: The 38.2% level has served as a strong support, bouncing the price into what could be an early phase of a bullish trend. The adherence to this Fibonacci level enhances the reliability of the bullish outlook in the near term.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The recent lows around 0.97270 provide a short-term support level.
Resistance: The recent high near 0.97900 and 0.98228 serve as resistance levels.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Given the current technical setup, the EUR/CHF is poised for potential upward movement, affirming the forex live analysis and bullish trend forecast. Traders should consider the strength at the 38.2% Fibonacci level as a solid basis for potential entries, with expectations of upward momentum as market conditions align with technical indicators. As always, it's advisable to employ prudent risk management strategies, keeping an eye on any shifts in market sentiment or unexpected geopolitical events that could influence forex dynamics.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FxGlory
07.05.2024

USD/CAD Technical Analysis for 08.05.2024








Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)



Fundamental Analysis:

Recent economic news releases from Canada and the United States are set to significantly influence the USD/CAD exchange rate. Here's a brief on the upcoming economic indicators:
Canadian Employment Change: Expected to show a rise of 20.9K, a significant recovery from the previous -2.2K, suggesting an improving labor market in Canada.
Canadian Unemployment Rate: Forecast to slightly increase to 6.2% from 6.1%, indicating minor fluctuations in the job market.
U.S. Unemployment Claims: Projected at 212K, up from 208K, which could reflect slight volatility in the U.S. job sector.
U.S. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Expected to decrease to 76.3 from 77.2, possibly hinting at a dip in consumer confidence.


Price Action:

The USD/CAD pair is currently reacting to a dynamic support indicated by the descending red line on the chart, marking a critical support area that could signal a pivotal point for the currency pair’s future movements. This juncture is crucial for investors monitoring the US Dollar price forecast against the Canadian Dollar, as it offers insights for potential USD/CAD investment strategies and short trading opportunities. Given the technical indicators, including the positioning of the RSI and MACD, this moment could lead to significant shifts in USD/CAD investment analysis outcomes. Investors should keep a close eye on this development, as it might dictate the immediate directional trends and offer short-term trading opportunities in the forex market.


Key Technical Indicators:

RSI Indicator: Positioned on a static resistance line, suggesting potential pressure but still under the overbought threshold, hinting that there might be room for upward movement if fundamental data supports it.

MACD Indicator: Showing bearish potential as the MACD line is trending downwards, which could indicate upcoming selling pressure or a continuation of the current downtrend.


Support and Resistance:

Support: The recent lows around 1.37000 provide a short-term support level.

Resistance: The recent high near 1.37810 and 1.38355 serve as resistance levels.



Conclusion and Consideration:

Given the proximity to critical support and impending economic data releases, the USD/CAD pair is at a juncture that could lead to significant volatility. Traders should watch the interaction between the price and the descending resistance, as a break above could suggest bullish potential, particularly if Canadian data underperforms or U.S. data shows unexpected strength.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FxGlory
08.05.2024

GBP/NZD Technical Analysis for 09.05.2024



Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The GBP/NZD analysis reflects the dynamic between the British Pound and the New Zealand Dollar. Today, key economic indicators such as the Official Bank Rate and speeches by BOE Governor Bailey may significantly influence GBP. The Bank Rate has aligned with forecasts in recent months, stabilizing expectations, but any deviation today could sway GBP value. The MPC's unanimous vote projection suggests a more hawkish monetary policy stance, which traditionally strengthens the currency.


Price Action Analysis:

In the H4 timeframe, the GBP/NZD price action analysis shows a volatile trend with recent bullish momentum. The formation of a series of higher lows over the past sessions suggests an upward corrective movement within a broader bearish context. The price is currently testing a key resistance level, and the reaction here will indicate whether the bullish sentiment can sustain.


Key Technical Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud: The price is approaching the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud, indicating potential resistance. If the price breaks through, it may signal a stronger bullish trend reversal.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line but still below zero, indicating improving bullish momentum yet within an overall bearish trend.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is above 50, suggesting increased buying momentum, but is not yet indicating overbought conditions, allowing room for further upside.

Fibonacci Retracement: Key Fibonacci levels from recent highs to lows show the price nearing the 61.8% retracement level, which may act as significant resistance.


Support and Resistance:

Support: The recent swing low around 1.9280 serves as the primary support level.

Resistance: Immediate resistance is found near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.9500.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The GBPNZD analysis is currently experiencing a bullish correction within a larger bearish trend on the H4 chart. The upcoming economic announcements and BOE Governor Bailey's speech could heavily impact GBP strength. Traders should monitor these events closely, as any hawkish surprise could reinforce the bullish trend. However, the presence near significant resistance levels suggests caution, with potential reversal risks if the bullish momentum cannot sustain.


Disclaimer: The provided GBPNZD chart forecast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FxGlory
09.05.2024

EUR/USD technical analysis for 10.05.2024





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR USD pair forecast is poised for potential volatility with upcoming economic releases. The Italian Industrial Production month-over-month, expected at 0.3%, could strengthen the EUR if results exceed forecasts, signaling economic robustness. Conversely, the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will provide deeper insights into the eurozone's economic conditions and future monetary policy, where a more hawkish stance is typically supportive of the EUR. On the USD front, multiple key events, including speeches from FOMC members and the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, are due. Notably, a higher consumer sentiment than forecasted could bolster the USD by reflecting stronger consumer confidence, potentially influencing Federal Reserve policies.


Price Action:
EUR USD chart analysis has displayed a consolidation pattern in the H4 chart, indicating uncertainty as traders await key economic news. Recent sessions show a slight bullish sentiment as the pair attempts to recover from previous lows.


Key Technical Indicators:
Fibonacci: The retracement levels from the recent high to low provide potential resistance and support zones, critical for identifying reversal points.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Currently below the signal line, suggesting bearish momentum in the short term. However, traders should watch for any crossover above the signal line as a potential bullish indicator.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Positioned around the mid-50s, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, reflecting a balance in market sentiment.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The pair finds initial support at the 1.0800 level, which has historically acted as a psychological and technical floor, preventing further declines in previous trading sessions.
Resistance: On the upside, the 1.0950 mark serves as a key resistance level, representing a previous high that the forex EURUSD chart struggled to surpass, making it a critical point for traders to watch for potential reversals or breakthroughs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD analysis on the H4 chart suggests cautious trading in the short term, with key economic releases likely to drive significant price action. Traders should monitor the upcoming economic indicators and central bank communications closely, as these will provide further clues about the strength and direction of the respective currencies. Given the balanced RSI and the bearish hint from the MACD, any strategic positions should be accompanied by tight risk management to navigate the potential market volatility effectively.


FxGlory
10.05.2024

USDCHF Daily Chart Analysis for 13.05.2024







Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)



Fundamental Analysis:

For USD/CHF forecast today, upcoming economic events for both the U.S. and Switzerland could impact the currency pair significantly. In Switzerland, the SECO Consumer Climate index and the SNB Chairman's speech may provide insights into the economic sentiments and monetary policy expectations, respectively. A more hawkish stance from the SNB could strengthen the CHF. In the U.S., speeches by FOMC members, including Governors Jefferson and Mester, will be closely watched for hints on future monetary policies. Additionally, U.S. mortgage delinquencies data, though a lagging indicator, could influence market sentiment regarding the health of the housing market and, by extension, broader economic conditions.


Price Action:

The USD/CHF analysis has shown a clear downtrend on the H4 timeframe, marked by consecutive lower highs and lower lows within a declining channel. Recently, there's a consolidation phase noticeable as the price moves closer to the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands, indicating potential for either a continuation of the trend or a temporary reversal if support levels hold.


Key Technical Indicators:

Bollinger Bands: The bands are currently narrow compared to last week, suggesting reduced volatility. The price trading near the lower band hints at a potential oversold condition which might precede a price rebound or stabilization.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD shows a continuation below the signal line and near zero, indicating weak upward momentum and prevailing bearish sentiment.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently around 44, suggesting slight bearish momentum without entering the oversold territory, which supports the downtrend but also indicates caution for potential reversal signals.



Support and Resistance Levels:

Support: The first level of support can be found at the recent low around 0.90550, which if breached could see further decline towards 0.90000.

Resistance: Immediate resistance is observed at around 0.90850, which aligns with recent minor peaks. A more significant resistance level is at 0.91350, marked by the convergence of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a previous support level.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The USD CHF analysis today is currently in a bearish trend with potential for further declines as indicated by key technical indicators and the current economic sentiment. However, the upcoming economic speeches and indicators from both the U.S. and Switzerland should be closely monitored as they may induce volatility and potentially shift market dynamics. Traders should maintain a cautious approach, monitoring for any signs of reversal or stronger bearish continuation, especially around key support and resistance levels. It's crucial to adjust strategies based on both technical setups and fundamental news flows.


Disclaimer: The USD/CHF provided price action and technical analysis today is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FxGlory
13.05.2024

USD/CAD Technical Analysis for 14.05.2024





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCAD pair could experience volatility due to a mix of upcoming economic data and news from both the US and Canada. For Canada, the Wholesale Sales report might slightly impact the CAD if results are better than expected, hinting at potential consumer spending increases. On the US side, high-impact news like the Core PPI and speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could significantly sway the USD. A hawkish stance from Powell or higher than forecasted PPI could strengthen the USD, affecting the pair.


Price Action:
The usd/cad trend has shown a slight bearish movement in the latest candle within a generally mixed live trend over the past sessions. While there have been several green, bullish candles within the Bollinger Bands' lower half, the most recent candle is bearish, indicating potential uncertainty or a shift in market sentiment.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price has lingered in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting bearish pressure, although the recent green candles indicate some buying interest.
MACD: The MACD line is below the signal line, signaling bearish momentum, although the histogram shows minimal divergence, suggesting the momentum might not be very strong.
RSI:The RSI is hovering around 45, which is slightly below neutral, indicating a bearish bias but no extreme oversold conditions that might suggest an imminent reversal.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The lowest points of the recent candles around 1.3630 serve as the immediate support level.
Resistance: The upper line of the Bollinger Band and recent peaks around 1.3720 act as resistance levels.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Given the current technical setup and upcoming fundamental events, traders should monitor the USDCAD daily chart closely. The bearish signals from MACD and the position within the Bollinger Bands suggest potential further downside, but upcoming economic reports could drive volatility and directional changes. Risk management and staying updated on the economic news are advisable for trading in such conditions.


Disclaimer: The provided technical and fundamental analysis and insight is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FxGlory
14.05.2024

GBPUSD Price Analysis for 15.5.2024



Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The recent news includes key economic indicators from both the UK and the US that could significantly affect the GBP/USD exchange rate. The US economic data analysis shows mixed signals with a steady Consumer Price Index (CPI) but a decline in the Empire State Manufacturing Index, suggesting potential vulnerabilities in the manufacturing sector. On the other hand, the UK data presents a stable unemployment rate with a slight increase in the Claimant Count. These economic indicators are essential to watch, as they provide insights into the economic health of both countries, influencing currency strength.

Price Action:

The GBP/USD chart currently shows that the price has rebounded to test a former support level at around 1.26000, which is now acting as resistance. The failure to break above this resistance level could lead to a bearish reversal. The price movement suggests a critical juncture where the pair might start a downward trend if the resistance holds firm.


Key Technical Indicators:

MACD: MACD The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a lack of momentum with the histogram tightening and the MACD line flattening, which could indicate a potential shift in GBPUSD current trend.

RSI: The RSI is hovering around 45, which is slightly below neutral, indicating a bearish bias but no extreme oversold conditions that might suggest an imminent reversal.


Support and Resistance Levels:

Support: The lowest points of the recent candles around 1.3630 serve as the immediate support level.

Resistance: The upper line of the Bollinger Band and recent peaks around 1.3720 act as resistance levels.


Conclusion:

Traders should closely monitor both the upcoming economic news and the GBPUSD reaction at the 1.26000 resistance level. A failure to break through could confirm the bearish price prediction, leading to potential short opportunities. Conversely, a strong push above this level could invalidate the bearish scenario for this pair. Given these dynamics, it's essential to stay updated with the latest economic reports and adjust strategies accordingly to navigate the volatile forex market effectively.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.

FxGlory
15.05.2024

USD/JPY daily chart analysis for 16.05.2024







Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The USD-JPY chart analysis is influenced by economic indicators from both the U.S. and Japan. Recent Japanese economic data shows a contraction in GDP with the Preliminary GDP q/q at -0.5% versus the forecast of -0.3%. This indicates weaker economic activity, which generally weakens the JPY. Additionally, the GDP Price Index came in higher than expected at 3.6%, suggesting rising inflation which can pressure the Bank of Japan to adjust monetary policy. The Revised Industrial Production m/m came in below expectations, signaling weaker industrial output, which further weighs on the JPY.
In the U.S., high-impact news includes Jobless Claims with a forecast of 219k. A lower-than-expected figure would be positive for the USD as it indicates a stronger labor market. Additionally, the Building Permits and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, both of medium impact, will provide insights into the housing market and manufacturing sector's health. The Industrial Production m/m data will also be crucial as it indicates the overall industrial output, and a figure higher than the forecast of 0.1% could further strengthen the USD. Positive economic indicators from the U.S. could support the USD, especially against the backdrop of weaker Japanese data.


Price Action:

On the H4 timeframe, the USD/JPY analysis shows a marked downtrend characterized by successive lower highs and lower lows. Recently, there has been a slight recovery with the formation of a bullish candle, suggesting a possible retracement or reversal in the short term. However, the broader trend remains downward as indicated by the overall movement and the positioning of the latest price below previous resistance levels.


Key Technical Indicators:

Bollinger Bands: The bands have been widening recently, indicating increasing volatility. The price is currently near the lower band, which could suggest a potential rebound or consolidation at this level.

MACD: The MACD line is below the signal line and close to the zero line, signaling bearish momentum. However, the histogram shows a slight decrease in bearish momentum, which may suggest a possible slowdown in the downtrend.

RSI: The RSI is at 31.50 and moving upwards, indicating that the pair is close to oversold territory. This upward movement can signal a potential reversal or at least a pause in the current downtrend.


Support and Resistance:

Support: Immediate support is around 153.760, with stronger support at 151.615, which aligns with recent lows.

Resistance: Initial resistance is around 154.475, with more significant resistance at 155.905, near the mid-range of the Bollinger Bands and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.


Conclusion and Consideration:

The USD/JPY daily chart analysis is currently in a bearish trend on the H4 chart, with indicators showing potential for short-term support or a minor rebound. The fundamental usdjpy outlook favors the USD due to weaker Japanese economic data and potential positive U.S. economic reports. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels closely, along with upcoming U.S. economic data releases, to identify potential trading opportunities and manage risk effectively. Given the current technical setup, cautious optimism for a short-term bounce could be warranted, but the overall bearish trend suggests remaining vigilant for further downside risks.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FxGlory
16.05.2024

EURNZD Analysis for 17.05.2024






Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)



Fundamental Analysis:
The EURNZD pair reflects the exchange rate between the Euro and the New Zealand Dollar. Recent economic data from New Zealand shows the PPI Input at 0.7%, slightly above the forecast of 0.6%, and PPI Output at 0.9%, significantly above the forecast of 0.5%. These figures indicate stronger-than-expected producer prices, supporting the NZD currency. For the Euro currency, the Final Core CPI y/y is forecasted at 2.7% and the Final CPI y/y at 2.4%, reflecting mild inflationary pressures. While these figures suggest a stable economic environment in the Eurozone, their impact is expected to be low due to the nature of these data releases.


Price Action:
In the EUR NZD technical analysis on H4 time frame, the EUR-NZD chart shows a clear downtrend, characterized by successive lower highs and lower lows. The price is currently consolidating near a recent low, suggesting potential for either a continued downward move or a short-term rebound. The bearish candles indicate strong selling pressure, and a break below the current support level could signal further declines.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands have widened and continue to widen, indicating increased volatility. The price is currently near the lower band, which suggests potential oversold conditions and a possible bounce.
MACD: The MACD line is below the signal line and in negative territory, indicating bearish momentum. The histogram shows increasing bearish divergence, suggesting that the downtrend may continue.
RSI: The RSI is at 33.55, which is approaching the oversold zone. This indicates that the pair might be due for a short-term correction or consolidation before continuing its downtrend.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The immediate support level is at 1.7748, which is a recent low. A break below this level could lead to further declines towards 1.7700.
Resistance: The immediate resistance level is at 1.7864 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level). The next significant resistance is at 1.7900 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURNZD chart analysis shows a strong bearish trend on the H4 chart, as indicated by the widening Bollinger Bands and the bearish MACD signal. While the RSI suggests the pair is approaching oversold conditions, the overall EURNZD technical outlook remains bearish. Traders should monitor the support level at 1.7748 closely; a break below this level could signal further declines. Conversely, if the pair bounces, the resistance levels at 1.7864 and 1.7900 should be watched for potential selling opportunities. Given the current market conditions and economic data, traders should exercise caution and implement proper risk management strategies.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FxGlory
17.05.2024