Daily Forex Analysis By FXGlory

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 14.08.2024





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP/USD forecast today is shaped by ongoing developments in the UK and US economies. In the UK, recent data has shown a slight increase in the unemployment rate, which could suggest a cooling labor market, while inflation remains elevated, keeping the Bank of England on alert for further rate hikes. In the US, economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have shown resilience, keeping the Federal Reserve on a tightrope between taming inflation and sustaining economic growth. These factors create a complex environment for GBP/USD, as traders weigh the relative strength of both currencies.


Price Action:
The GBP/USD price recently broke above a significant dynamic resistance zone, indicating a potential end to the bearish phase that has dominated the market. The price action suggests that the pair is now entering a consolidation phase after this breakout, with the possibility of retesting the recently broken dynamic support zone before continuing its upward trajectory.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently in the overbought territory, hovering around 72. This suggests that the pair may be due for a short-term correction or consolidation before resuming its upward movement.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD shows a strong buy signal, with the histogram indicating increasing bullish momentum. This aligns with the recent breakout above the resistance zone, supporting the case for further upside potential.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels:
The nearest support is at 1.27353, which corresponds to the dynamic support zone recently broken. A retest of this level could provide a strong buying opportunity and this situation is predicted for GBPUSD. Additional support is noted at 1.26641, which would be critical if the pair sees a deeper pullback.
Resistance Levels:
Immediate resistance is seen around 1.28850. This area is forecasted to be an important area for GBPUSD A break above this level could accelerate the bullish trend. Further resistance is noted at 1.29410, which would be the next target for bulls if the current momentum continues.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/USD H4 chart analysis suggests that the bearish phase may have concluded, with the price now likely to enter a bullish trend following a potential retest of the dynamic support zone. However, traders should be cautious of the RSI being in overbought territory, indicating a possible short-term pullback or consolidation. The strong buy signal from the MACD further reinforces the potential for continued upward movement after any correction. As always, market participants should monitor upcoming economic data and global developments, adjusting their strategies accordingly.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.

FXGlory
14.08.2024

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 15.08.2024





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD news analysis today is influenced by several key fundamental factors, these economic data are released from both Australia and the United States, most of the time leading to increased volatility in the pair commonly known as the “Aussie”. Australia's economic health, particularly in areas such as employment, inflation, and consumer spending, plays a crucial role in determining the strength of the Australian Dollar. On the other hand, the US Dollar is affected by economic indicators like retail sales, jobless claims, and manufacturing indexes. Given the interconnectedness of the global economy, shifts in US monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, have a significant impact on the AUD/USD exchange rate. The upcoming economic data for the US, such as retail sales and unemployment claims, are likely to drive the pair’s market sentiment and could affect the Aussie’s forecast.


Price Action:
The AUD/USD H4 chart, shows a steady uptrend after a prolonged downtrend, as indicated by the price movements above the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair’s price action suggests that the pair is currently in a consolidation phase, with potential for continued bullish momentum. The price has recently bounced from a key support level and is now trading within a rising channel. The Aussie is facing resistance near the upper boundary of this channel, and a breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the uptrend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The AUD/USD price is trending above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating its bullish market environment. The cloud itself acts as a support zone, and the price's position above it suggests that the uptrend is still intact. However, the flat Kijun-Sen line might indicate some hesitation or consolidation in the near term.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is hovering around 50, which is a neutral zone, suggesting that the market is not overbought or oversold. This level indicates that there is room for further price movement in either direction, but the current consolidation phase might lead to a continuation of the existing trend if the RSI begins to rise.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line, with a positive histogram, indicating that bullish momentum is still present. The increasing distance between the MACD line and the signal line suggests that the upward movement could continue if the current trend persists.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The first support is located at 0.6596, which is the lower boundary of the rising channel and close to the Ichimoku Cloud. The next significant support level is at 0.6516, aligning with a previous swing low and the bottom of the cloud.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 0.6640, which is the upper boundary of the rising channel. A breakout above this level could see the price move towards the next resistance at 0.6680, which coincides with a previous high.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD/USD technical analysis today is showing signs of a potential continuation of the Aussie’s bullish trend, supported by the positive signals from the Ichimoku Cloud, MACD, and the price's position within the rising channel. The RSI indicates that the market is currently in a neutral state, allowing for further price movement in either direction. Traders should monitor the upcoming US economic data releases, as these could influence the strength of the USD and impact the AUD/USD fundamental outlook. A breakout above the 0.6640 resistance level could signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a drop below the 0.6596 support could indicate a potential reversal or deeper consolidation.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
15.08.2024

GBP/CAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 16.08.2024





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBPCAD currency pair represents the exchange rate between the British Pound (GBP) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Today, the GBP might experience fluctuations due to upcoming economic data releases, such as the UK's retail sales figures, which can provide insight into consumer spending and economic health. Meanwhile, the CAD is likely to be influenced by the release of Canadian inflation data, which will be closely monitored for any indications of future monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of Canada. Additionally, oil prices, a critical factor for the CAD, remain volatile, potentially affecting the CAD's strength against the GBP.


Price Action:
In the H4 timeframe, the GBP/CAD has exhibited a bullish trend over the past week. The price has been moving within an ascending channel, as indicated by the clear higher highs and higher lows formation. The last three candles have been bullish, with the most recent candle closing near a key resistance level, suggesting strong buying momentum. However, the price is nearing the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which may act as a resistance zone, potentially leading to a consolidation phase or a minor pullback.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR (0.2): The Parabolic SAR indicator shows a bullish trend, with the last three dots placed below the candlesticks. This positioning of the Parabolic SAR below the price indicates continued upward momentum. The recent bullish candles reinforce the likelihood of further gains in the short term unless a reversal signal emerges.
Alligator Indicator: The Alligator indicator is currently bullish, with the green lips line (fastest moving average) crossing above the red teeth line (medium moving average) and the red teeth line positioned above the blue jaws line (slowest moving average). This alignment of the Alligator's lines indicates that the upward trend is strengthening, with the GBPCAD price likely to continue its bullish movement in the near term.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is in bullish territory, with the MACD line above the signal line. The histogram bars are positive, indicating that the bullish momentum is gaining strength. The widening gap between the MACD and the signal line suggests an acceleration in the upward trend, although traders should watch for any signs of divergence that could indicate a potential trend reversal.
%R (14): The Williams %R is currently around -8.62, indicating that the GBP CAD pair is in overbought territory. While this suggests that the bullish trend is strong, it also signals a potential for a short-term correction as the market may be overstretched. Traders should be cautious of a possible pullback or consolidation in the coming sessions.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.75615, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. This level has acted as a strong support in the past and could provide a base for further upward movement if the price tests this area.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.76740, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A break above this level could open the door for further gains, potentially targeting the next resistance around 1.77500.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/CAD forex pair on the H4 chart shows strong bullish momentum supported by the Parabolic SAR, Alligator, MACD, and %R indicators. The current price action within the ascending channel indicates that the bulls remain in control. However, with the %R in overbought territory, there could be a risk of a short-term pullback or consolidation. Traders should be cautious around the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level and consider any potential retracements as opportunities to re-enter the bullish trend.


Disclaimer: This GBPCAD technical and fundamental analysis is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to conduct your own analysis and stay updated with the latest information before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
16.08.2024

CADJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 19.08.2024







Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The CAD/JPY fundamental analysis today is influenced by various macroeconomic factors and market sentiment. The Canadian Dollar is often correlated with oil prices, as Canada is a major oil exporter. Rising oil prices typically strengthen the CAD. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen, often seen as a safe-haven currency, is influenced by global risk sentiment and Japan’s economic indicators, such as machine orders and monetary policy. The upcoming release of Japan's machine orders data is crucial as it may affect the JPY by indicating the health of Japan’s manufacturing sector. A stronger-than-expected release could lead to a stronger Yen, putting pressure on the CAD/JPY forecast.


Price Action:
The CAD/JPY H4 chart shows that the pair has been in a consolidation phase after a previous downtrend. The price is currently moving within a channel, bounded by rising trendlines, suggesting a gradual upward movement. However, recent candles indicate a struggle to break above the immediate resistance, highlighting potential indecision in the market. The pair’s price action shows it has recently tested and held above a key support level, which could suggest a buildup for another upward push if it holds.


[B]Key Technical Indicators: [B]

Ichimoku Cloud:
The price is trading near the upper boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud, which acts as resistance. A break above this level could signal a potential bullish breakout, while failure to do so might lead to a retracement.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is currently at 55.90, indicating that the pair is in neutral to slightly bullish territory. There’s still room for upward movement before the market reaches overbought conditions.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD line is slightly above the signal line, and the histogram is in positive territory, suggesting that the bullish momentum is still intact but not overwhelmingly strong.


Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:
The key support levels are at 107.495 and 107.010, with the latter being crucial as it aligns with the lower trendline of the channel.
Resistance Levels:
Immediate resistance is found at 108.052, followed by a stronger resistance at 108.749. A break above these levels could lead to further gains toward 109.500.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The CAD/JPY technical analysis today on the pair’s H4 chart depicts a consolidation phase with the potential for an upward breakout if it can sustain above the current resistance levels. Traders should monitor the RSI for signs of overbought conditions and the MACD for any changes in momentum. Given the upcoming machine orders data from Japan, there may be increased volatility in the pair. Conservative traders might wait for a clear breakout from the current range before entering new positions. It’s also advisable to implement risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders, especially given the pair's proximity to key resistance levels.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
19.08.2024

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 21.08.2024







Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)



Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair, reflecting the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar, is currently influenced by recent economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the United States. In the Eurozone, the latest PMI readings suggest a mixed economic outlook. The French Manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 44.4 from 44.0, indicating a marginal recovery, although the sector remains in contraction. The French Services PMI edged up to 50.2 from 50.1, pointing to stability in the services sector. Similarly, Germany’s Manufacturing PMI, while still weak at 43.4, showed a minor improvement from 43.2, whereas the Services PMI dipped slightly to 52.3 from 52.5, reflecting a slight slowdown. Meanwhile, in the United States, a significant drawdown in Crude Oil Inventories by -2.0M barrels, against expectations of a 1.4M increase, could signal potential supply constraints, influencing inflation expectations. Additionally, the upcoming FOMC Meeting Minutes will be crucial, as they are likely to offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s stance on future interest rates, a key driver of the USD's strength or weakness. These mixed economic signals suggest a cautious outlook for the EUR/USD pair, with the potential for heightened volatility depending on further developments in economic data and central bank policies.


Price Action:
On the H4 timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has experienced a robust bullish wave, propelling the price towards a significant resistance level. The recent price action has shown the formation of candlestick patterns at this resistance, indicating that the bullish momentum may be losing strength. This setup raises the possibility of a bearish correction, particularly as the price approaches this critical resistance. The technical indicators also reinforce this outlook. The MACD indicator is displaying signs of negative divergence, with the MACD line remaining below the signal line despite recent price highs, suggesting that the bullish momentum could be weakening. Similarly, the Williams %R is signaling overbought conditions, hovering near the -10 level, which typically precedes a market pullback.


Key Technical Indicators:
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD indicator is showing signs of a negative divergence, where the MACD line remains below the signal line despite the recent price highs. This divergence could indicate weakening bullish momentum and the potential for a bearish correction.
Williams %R (Percent Range): The Williams %R is also indicating overbought conditions, hovering near the -10 level, suggesting that the market might be due for a pullback.


[B]Support and Resistance: [B]
Support: Potential support levels to watch for a bearish correction include the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0975, the 50% retracement at 1.0901, and the 38.2% retracement at 1.0831.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at 1.1187, which corresponds with the current high and the 100% Fibonacci extension level.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD pair on the H4 chart is at a critical juncture, with potential for a bearish correction after a significant bullish wave. The negative divergence in the MACD and the overbought signal from the Williams %R suggest that a pullback could be imminent. Traders should consider short positions if the price action confirms a reversal at the current resistance level, targeting the key Fibonacci retracement levels as potential profit zones.


Disclaimer: The EURUSD provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information. Always consider risk management strategies and consult with a financial advisor if necessary.



FXGlory
21.08.2024

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 22.08.2024







Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)



Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP/USD news analysis today is currently influenced by several key economic indicators. For today, the focus is on the U.S. data releases, including Jobless Claims and PMI figures, which will provide insights into the U.S. economy's health. Stronger-than-expected data could bolster the U.S. Dollar, leading to potential changes in the GBP/USD exchange rate. On the other hand, the U.K.'s PMI data and CBI Industrial Trends Survey are essential for gauging the British economy's performance. Better-than-expected U.K. data could support the Pound, but overall for this pair that is also known as the “Cable”, its market sentiment will largely be driven by U.S. economic indicators due to their global impact.


Price Action:
The GBP/USD H4 chart depicts the pair in a clear uptrend, with the price moving within an ascending channel. The recent candles show the Cable’s strong bullish momentum, with the price making higher highs and higher lows. The pair’s price action suggests that the pair is likely to continue its upward trajectory, although the price is currently approaching significant resistance levels that could lead to a temporary pullback or consolidation.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud:
The price is well above the Ichimoku Cloud, which is a strong bullish signal. The Tenkan-sen (blue) and Kijun-sen (red) lines are in a bullish crossover, further supporting the upward momentum. The Chikou Span (green) is also positioned above the price, confirming the bullish trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is currently around 79.88, indicating that the pair is in overbought territory. While this suggests that the bullish momentum is strong, it also warns of a possible correction or consolidation in the near term as the market may need to cool off.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels:
Immediate support is located at 1.3034, followed by stronger support at 1.2939, which coincides with the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud.
Resistance Levels:
The pair is currently testing resistance at 1.3089, with the next significant resistance level around 1.3140.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/USD technical analysis today shows a strong bullish trend, supported by the Ichimoku Cloud and the ascending channel formation. However, the RSI indicates that the pair is overbought, suggesting that a correction could be imminent. Traders should consider the upcoming U.S. economic data releases, which could influence the pair's forecast today. A break above 1.3089 could lead to further gains, but caution is advised due to the overbought RSI. Proper risk management, including setting stop-losses below the lower channel boundary, is recommended to protect against potential market volatility.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
22.08.2024

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.26.2024





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CAD news analysis today is influenced by a variety of macroeconomic factors, including crude oil prices (since Canada is a major oil exporter), interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, and economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment data, and inflation rates. Additionally, recent data releases related to U.S. durable goods orders are crucial as they indicate future production levels and economic strength. An actual reading higher than forecasted is generally seen as positive for the U.S. dollar. As a leading indicator of economic activity, a robust increase in these orders can signal that manufacturers anticipate stronger demand, which could support the USD against other currencies, including the CAD, subsequently affecting the pair also known as the “Loonie.”


Price Action:
The USD/CAD H4 chart shows the pair’s bearish trend, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. The Loonie’s price action has seen a downward momentum, breaking below key support levels, and trending within a downward-sloping channel. The pair’s candlestick patterns indicate selling pressure, with a lack of significant bullish reversal signs at the moment. A breakdown below the current support zone could lead to further declines, confirming the continuation of the bearish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating the pair’s bearish market sentiment. The cloud itself is acting as a resistance, and the lagging span (Chikou Span) confirms this bearish outlook as it is also below the price action. The future cloud is thin and bearish, suggesting that there is no immediate sign of reversal in this downtrend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 21, indicating that the market is in oversold territory. This suggests that while the bearish momentum is strong, there might be a potential for a short-term corrective bounce. However, oversold conditions alone do not indicate a reversal but rather that the current trend might be overstretched.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic indicator is also in the oversold region (around 10.92), which aligns with the RSI reading, indicating that the selling pressure might be nearing exhaustion. The possibility of a bullish crossover in the stochastic lines may hint at a potential short-term recovery, but confirmation is needed.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: Immediate support is seen at the 1.35062 level, which aligns with the lower boundary of the current descending channel. A break below this level could open the way towards further downside targets around 1.3450.
Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance level is marked at 1.35574, followed by a more significant resistance at 1.36139, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the descending channel and the Ichimoku cloud’s lower edge.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/CAD technical analysis today on the H4 timeframe is exhibiting its strong bearish sentiment, as evidenced by the technical indicators and the descending price channel. While oversold conditions on the RSI and Stochastic indicators suggest a possible short-term correction, the prevailing trend remains bearish. Traders should watch for the price action around the key support and resistance levels for potential breakout or reversal signals. The Loonie’s Fundamental analysis data, such as the upcoming durable goods orders release, could provide additional volatility and direction for the USD/CAD forecast. Risk management strategies, including the use of stop-loss orders, are advisable given the current market conditions.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
08.26.2024

USD/JPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.27.2024





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The upcoming economic data releases from both the US and Japan are set to influence the USD/JPY pair's direction prediction. In the US, key indicators such as the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, HPI m/m, CB Consumer Confidence, and Richmond Manufacturing Index will be released. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y is expected to show a slight decrease from 6.8% to 6.2%, indicating a cooling in the housing market. Meanwhile, the CB Consumer Confidence index is expected to rise to 100.9 from a previous 100.3, suggesting improved consumer sentiment. The Richmond Manufacturing Index is projected to show an improvement from -17 to -14, which still indicates contraction but at a slower pace. These mixed data points could create a volatile trading environment for the USD.
On the Japanese side, the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) y/y is forecasted to slightly decrease from 3.0% to 2.9%, signaling a potential slowdown in price pressures; which stands as an important forecast element for this fore pair. The BOJ Core CPI y/y is expected to remain stable at 2.1%, suggesting persistent inflation concerns within Japan. The stable inflation rate and the recent dovish stance of the Bank of Japan could continue to exert downward pressure on the JPY.


Price Action:
The USD/JPY pair is forming a bearish flag pattern on the H4 chart after a significant bearish wave, which suggests a potential continuation of the downward trend. The price is currently consolidating within this pattern, and a breakout to the downside could accelerate the bearish momentum. However, the presence of bullish technical indicators points to a possible short-term corrective wave.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 41.70, indicating bearish sentiment, yet it is not in the oversold territory, suggesting room for further downside before a reversal might occur.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The Stochastic is approaching the 70 level, indicating potential for a bullish wave in the short term if it crosses above this threshold. This could signal a temporary upward correction within the broader bearish trend.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The nearest support is at the lower trendline of the bearish flag pattern, around 144.00. A break below this level could see the pair testing the next support near 142.50, which aligns with previous lows.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at the upper trendline of the bearish flag, around 145.00. A break above this level could target the next resistance at 146.50, potentially invalidating the bearish flag pattern and signaling a bullish reversal.

Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/JPY H4 chart suggests that the pair is consolidating within a bearish flag pattern, with potential for further downside if key support levels are breached. Traders should closely monitor the upcoming economic data releases from both the US and Japan, as these could provide the catalyst for the next major move. Given the mixed signals from technical indicators and fundamental outlook, traders should be prepared for both bearish and short-term bullish scenarios, adapting their strategies accordingly to the evolving market conditions.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
08.27.2024

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 28.08.2024







Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD pair, reflecting the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar, is currently navigating through various economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the United States. In the Eurozone, inflation data has presented a mixed picture. Germany's Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in flat at 0.0% for the month, below expectations of a 0.3% increase, suggesting subdued inflationary pressures in Europe's largest economy. Meanwhile, Spain's Flash CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, which is below the anticipated 2.8%, indicating lower inflationary momentum than expected. These figures suggest that inflation concerns might be less pronounced in the Eurozone, possibly leading to a more dovish stance from the European Central Bank.

On the US side, economic indicators such as the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) q/q showed a stable 2.8% growth rate, aligning with market expectations. This stability is indicative of a resilient economic outlook in the US. Additionally, the Unemployment Claims remained consistent at 232K, further reinforcing a stable labor market. The Preliminary GDP Price Index, also stable at 2.3%, aligns with market forecasts, indicating controlled inflation in the US. These stable economic indicators in the US might support the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance, impacting the USD's strength relative to the Euro.


Price Action:
On the H4 timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has experienced a notable bullish wave, driving the price higher towards key resistance levels. Recent price action suggests that this bullish momentum may be waning, as indicated by candlestick patterns that show indecision or possible reversal near these resistance levels. A bearish correction could be on the horizon, particularly if the bullish momentum fails to break through the established resistance.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows that Tenkan-sen (blue line) is about to cross below Kijun-sen (red line), a bearish signal suggesting potential trend reversal. The price has been trading above the cloud, indicating an uptrend, but the potential Tenkan-Kijun crossover is a warning of a shift in momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is showing a negative divergence, where the price makes higher highs, but the RSI fails to confirm those highs, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Currently, RSI is at 55.8787, which is in the neutral zone but leaning towards overbought conditions.
Volume Analysis: The volume has not significantly supported the recent bullish wave, implying that the upward momentum might lack the strength to sustain a further rally. Lower volume during price increases often indicates potential exhaustion of buying interest.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest resistance level is at 1.1187, which is a recent high and could serve as a barrier for further upward movement. A break above this level could signal the continuation of the bullish trend.
Resistance: Key support levels to monitor include 1.1100, near the base of the Ichimoku cloud, and further below at 1.0975, where a significant Fibonacci retracement level lies.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD pair on the H4 chart is showing signs of a potential bearish correction following a strong bullish wave. Negative divergence in the RSI, a potential bearish Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen crossover in the Ichimoku Cloud, and low volume support suggest that the bullish momentum may be fading. Traders should look for confirmation of a reversal through price action around the current resistance level before considering short positions. Profit-taking could be aimed at key support levels like 1.1100 and 1.0975, using tight stop-losses to manage risk effectively.


Disclaimer: The EUR/USD analysis provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information. Always consider risk management strategies and consult with a financial advisor if necessary.


FXGlory
28.08.2024

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.29.2024





Time Zone: GMT
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD) is experiencing potential volatility due to key economic events scheduled today. In the US, the market will closely watch Raphael Bostic's speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, where his comments may provide insights into future monetary policy directions, affecting the USD's strength. Moreover, important data releases like the GDP Second Release and Unemployment Claims are expected, which can offer clues about the US economy's health and labor market. On the AUD side, no major economic releases are scheduled for today, which may keep the currency influenced primarily by external factors, especially from the USD.


Price Action:
The AUDUSD forex pair is showing a bullish trend on the H4 chart. The pair is trading within an ascending channel, with the recent candles moving towards the upper boundary. The last two candlesticks have shown positive movement, with the most recent candle being bullish, indicating sustained upward momentum. The AUD/USD price is currently moving between the 61.8% and 100% Fibonacci retracement levels, edging closer to the 100% mark. This suggests a strong upward bias, with the potential to test higher resistance levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands have tightened, indicating reduced volatility and a potential buildup for a breakout. The price has been trading in the upper half of the bands and is now near the upper band, suggesting that the bullish momentum is still intact. This position implies a higher probability of further upward movement in the AUD USD price. However, traders should watch for any signs of reversal as the price approaches the upper band limit.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is positioned above the signal line, and the histogram is showing positive but decreasing momentum. This indicates that while the bullish trend persists, the strength behind the movement is diminishing. Forex traders should watch for any potential crossover, which could signal a shift in momentum and a possible price correction in the AUD/USD pair.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 61.23, which is below the overbought threshold of 70. This suggests that there is still room for upward movement before the AUD-USD reaches overbought conditions. The RSI supports the ongoing bullish trend and indicates that the market is not overly stretched.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have shifted below the price, indicating a bullish trend. This shift supports the upward movement, with the dots acting as potential support levels. As long as the Parabolic SAR remains below the price, the bullish bias in the AUD USD is likely to continue.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The immediate support is at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, around 0.67100, followed by stronger support near 0.66865, which aligns with the 50% retracement level.
Resistance: The primary resistance is at the 100% Fibonacci retracement level, approximately 0.68345. If the price breaks above this level, the next target could be the upper boundary of the ascending channel.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUDUSD pair on the H4 chart shows continued bullish momentum, underpinned by positive price action and supported by the technical indicators like Bollinger Bands, MACD, RSI, and Parabolic SAR. While the trend remains upward, caution is advised due to the tightening Bollinger Bands and the decreasing momentum shown by the MACD histogram. Upcoming economic events and data releases, especially from the US, could introduce volatility and influence price movements. Traders should monitor these developments closely and consider employing risk management strategies to navigate potential market fluctuations.


Disclaimer: This AUDUSD analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information.

FXGlory
08.29.2024