Technical Forecasts

US Dollar Forecast – Dollar’s Next Move Falls to Speculators Rather Than Data
The Dollar started off this past week at an 11-month low and ended it with the best run since the early November climb that drove the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) to 12-year highs.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Japanese Yen Could Trade Higher If and When this Occurs
The Japanese Yen gave back some of its recent gains versus the US Dollar in a choppy week for financial markets.

British Pound Forecast -Super Thursday: Brexit Possibility to Complicate Inflation Projections
It was just seven months ago that we were going into the Bank of England’s Super Thursday announcements with the potential of hearing about a rate hike in the not-too-distant future.

Chinese Yuan (CNH) Forecast - Yuan Volatility to Continue on PBOC Activity, CPI and Equity Volatility
The offshore Yuan (CNH) rate closed at a five-week low against theUS Dollaron Friday following the biggest downward move in Yuan fixing by the PBOC since the Yuan’s de-pegging.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - New Zealand Dollar Looks To Wheeler Speech At Financial Stability Report on Tuesday
The US Dollar surprised a lot of G10 currencies this week, but few more than the New Zealand Dollar and other commodity currencies.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Aussie Dollar Still Vulnerable After Largest Drop in Three Weeks
The Australian Dollar is vulnerable to deeper losses as risk aversion continues to batter the financial markets, putting pressure on the sentiment-sensitive currency.

Gold Forecast - Gold Dips as USD Rips- NFP Extinguishes June Rate Hike Hopes
Gold prices are softer this week with the precious metal off 0.21% to trade at 1290 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

more...

US Dollar Forecast – Dollar Forges Bullish Reversal but May Struggle to Maintain Lift
The Greenback advanced against all of its major counterparts this past week, and the USDollar secured its strongest two-week rally since the May 2015 climb forestalled a bearish reversal.

British Pound Forecast - Mixed U.K./U.S. Data to Foster Range-Bound Conditions for GBP/USD
Mixed data prints coming out of the U.S. & U.K. may foster range-bound prices in GBP/USD especially as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) retain a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy.

Chinese Yuan (CNH) Forecast – Eco Policies, Commodity Volatility Add Mixed Moves to the Yuan
The onshore Yuan (CNY) extended losses against the US Dollar on Friday after PBOC fixed the daily reference rate to the weakest level in two months, to 6.5246.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar Torn Between RBA Bets, Sentiment TrendsTitle
The Australian Dollar may find itself torn between the influence of RBA monetary policy expectations and market-wide risk sentiment trends in the week ahead.

Gold Forecast – Gold Bulls Look to CPI, Fed Minutes for Solace
Gold prices are lower for a second consecutive week with the previous metal off 1.26% to trade at 1272 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

more...

US Dollar Forecast – Fed Provides Dollar Lift, FOMC Speak and SPX May Play Key Roles
The Dollar is finding some serious reprieve from a painful three months of selling pressure.

British Pound Forecast – BoE Warns of Weakness, Even Without Brexit
The British Pound put in a strong week of gains through Thursday, snapping the two-week losing streak that the Sterling put in against the US Dollar after running up to a new nine-month high earlier in May.

Chinese Yuan (CNH) Forecast – Chinese Yuan Torn Between PBOC, Fed
Both the onshore Yuan (CNY) and offshore Yuan (CNH) traded lower against the US Dollar this week due to the increased expectations of a Fed rate hike in June after FOMC April minutes were released on Wednesday.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Aussie Dollar to Track Risk Trends on Fed Outlook, Brexit Bets
The Australian Dollar is likely to fall in with broad-based risk sentiment trends as markets size up the Fed policy outlook and Brexit probabilities in the week ahead.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – USD/CAD to Eye Fresh May Highs on Hawkish Fed Rhetoric, Dovish BoC
The near-term advance in USD/CAD may gather pace in the week ahead should the Bank of Canada (BoC) endorse a dovish outlook for monetary policy, while Federal Reserve officials show a greater willingness to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast – New Zealand’s Migration Boom Could Keep RBNZ on Hold & Support NZD
The US Dollar surprised a lot of G10 currencies last week, but the New Zealand Dollar held firm.

Gold Forecast – Gold Decline Intensified as Fed Hints of Rate Hikes Ahead
Gold prices are down for a third consecutive week with the precious metal off 1.69% to trade at 1251 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

more...

US Dollar Forecast – A Late Push for the Dollar from Yellen Puts Bulls on Notice
The Dollar spent much of the past week consolidating following a three-week advance, but Yellen’s remarks Friday spurred a rally that put the bulls back on the front foot. We will open the new trading week with the USDollar at a two months high but liquidity curtailed by Monday’s Memorial Day holiday.

British Pound Forecast – Sterling Continues to Strengthen With Brexit Vote a Month Away
We are now less than four weeks from the vote waited upon around-the-world; and that is the decision that UK voters will tackle on June 23rd that will decide the fate of the continued EU-membership for the United Kingdom.

Japanese Yen Forecast – Japanese Yen Likely to Hit Further Lows Unless Key Data Disappoints
The Japanese Yen fell for the fourth-consecutive week against the US Dollar and matched its longest losing streak since the USD/JPY traded above ¥121 through late 2014. Sharp rallies in the US S&P 500 and broader ‘risk’ helped push the JPY lower, but equity markets will be put to the test in what could be a big week ahead for global financial markets.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Aussie Dollar Selling May Continue as RBA vs. Fed Outlooks Diverge
The Australian Dollar fell for a fifth consecutive week, making for the longest losing streak in 10 months. The currency succumbed to both external and domestic headwinds.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – USD/CAD Risks Further Losses on Upbeat Canada GDP, Slowing U.S. NFP
A pickup in the Canadian economy accompanied by slowing job growth in the U.S. may fuel a near-term decline in USD/CAD as the Bank of Canada (BoC) appears to be moving away from its easing cycle, while the Federal Reserve remains in no rush to further normalize monetary policy.

Gold Forecast – Gold prices in Free Fall- Shorts at risk into NFP
Gold prices fell for a fourth consecutive week with the precious metal plummeting more than 2.8% to trade at 1215 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

more...

US Dollar Forecast – Will Yellen Step in to Stem Dollar’s Tumble as June Hike Vanishes?
There are two scenarios for the week ahead: either the market fully acknowledges that the Fed is hamstrung and cannot hike or Chairwoman Janet Yellen spurs a dramatic Dollar rally.

European Euro Forecast - Patience the Key for the ECB; but Will the Bazooka Hit its Target?
There was a European Central Bank meeting this past Thursday, and you may not have heard about it. Nothing really happened, and nothing was really expected to happen.

British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD to Eye Range Resistance on Dovish Fed Rhetoric
Even though the economic docket for both the U.K. & U.S. remains fairly light for the first full-week of June, GBP/USD may work its way back towards the top of its recent range as thedismal Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report dampens bets for an imminent Fed rate-hike.

Japanese Yen Forecast – Japanese Yen Now in Control unless Ministry of Finance has its Say
A Japanese Yen surge pushed it through key price resistancelevels versus the US Dollar and other major currencies.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Aussie Dollar Faces Another Volatile Week on RBA, Yellen Speech
The Australian Dollar snapped a five-week losing streak, putting in its largest advance in four months. The move found fuel in domestic and external news-flow.

Gold Forecast – Gold Surges as Dismal NFPs Shatter Hopes for June Rate Hike
Gold pricess napped a 4-week losing streak with the precious metal rallying more than 2.2% to trade at 1239 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

more...

US Dollar Forecast – FOMC Will Drive the Dollar Even if They Keep Rates Steady Wednesday
The Dollar clawed back much of the losses it suffered after the disappointing NFPs this past week. However, the true test for the currency lies ahead in the FOMC rate decision.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast – Kiwi Explodes to New High as RBNZ Eyes Property Bubble
Coming into this week’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate announcement, expectations for future rate policy were extremely low.

British Pound Forecast - British Pound Braces for Massive Volatility in Two Weeks Ahead
A wave of negative headlines sent the British Pound and the UK FTSE 100 sharply lower and both registered their largest single-week declines in at least three months.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – USD/CAD Risks Further Losses on Upbeat Canada GDP, Slowing U.S. NFP
USD/CAD dropped aggressively on Friday when Canada Released May Employment figures that far surpassed what economists were expecting.

more...

US Dollar Forecast – USDollar an Anti-Brexit Haven – For Better or Worse
The Dollar usually exacts its influence over the rest of the FX market by virtue of its size.

British Pound Forecast - British Pound Braces for Massive Volatility in Two Weeks Ahead
This time next week, unless something unexpected takes place, we will finally have the results of the widely-awaited upon Brexit referendum.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – Slowing CPI Doesn’t Prevent Canadian Dollar Strength As Oil Rises
USD/CAD fell nearly across the board this week as Commodity-FX took a back seat to the volatility surrounding the British Pound ahead of the EU Referendum on Thursday as well as the overtly dovish Federal Reserve and Silent Bank of Japan.

Japanese Yen Forecast – USD/JPY Risks Further Losses on Dovish Yellen Testimony
Beyond the U.K. Referendum, the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony with Fed Chair Janet Yellen may largely influence USD/JPY in the week ahead as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar at the Mercy of UK EU Membership Referendum
Under normal circumstances, the week ahead might have brought a variety of potential market movers for the Australian Dollar.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices to be Driven by Yellen Testimony, Brexit
Gold Prices rallied for a third consecutive week with the precious metal up more than 1.25% ahead of the New York close on Friday.

more...

US Dollar Forecast – USDollar Shows Little Deference to NFPs, Conviction Comes from Abroad
It would seem that the Dollar had strong fundamental fuel to revive its climb this past week, but the currency made little effort to revive its post-Brexit rally.

British Pound Forecast – While Brexit Makes the Waves, Carney Drives the Pound
The British Pound continues to get smashed in the post-Brexit environment, with this week seeing yet another +30-year low print as price action drove below the psychological 1.3000 level against the US Dollar.

Japanese Yen Forecast - USD/JPY Risks Further Losses on Soft U.S. Data, Dovish Fed Rhetoric
Key developments coming out of the U.S. economy may largely influence the USD/JPY exchange rate over the week ahead as the economic docket remains fairly light for Japan.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Aussie Dollar to Mirror Risk Trends Amid Global Slowdown Fears
The Australian Dollar is likely to fall in with risk sentiment trends as markets weigh up the threat of a global economic slowdown on the heels of the UK “Brexit” referendum.

Canadian Dollar Forecast - Canadian Dollar Tests Support On Weak Employment And Trade Deficit
The price of USD/CAD rose back toward resistance near 1.3150/3000 on Friday when Canada released June Employment figures that underwhelmed what economists were expecting after a stellar May report.

Chinese Yuan Forecast - To Track the Dollar, or to Track the Basket; That is the Question Around the Yuan
The onshore Yuan lost against the US Dollar for the fourth consecutive week and hit new lows at levels not seen since November 2010. As of 10:20 am EDT, the onshore Yuan (USD/CNY) dropped -0.48% to 6.6869.

Gold Forecast – Gold’s Six-Week Rally Vulnerable Post-NFP
Gold prices advanced for a sixth consecutive week with the precious metal up more than 0.9% ahead of the New York close on Friday.

more...

US Dollar Forecast – USDollar Keeps Range Despite Fading Fed Outlook, Rising Risk Appetite
The Dollar has maintained a remarkably tight range for three week range for three weeks running. The 80-point range on USDollar below 12,050 is equivalent to the average daily range of the index on a 20-day rolling basis.

British Pound Forecast – British Pound Rallies but We’re Not Buying – Further Losses Likely
The British Pound strengthened for only the second week of the past seven as a key surprise out of the Bank of England and positive political developments eased financial market tensions.

Canadian Dollar Forecast - USD/CAD to Eye Downside Targets on Sticky Canada Inflation
USD/CAD may continue to give back the advance carried over from the previous month as the Bank of Canada (BoC) softens its dovish outlook for monetary policy, but the fresh data prints coming out of the region may dampen the appeal of the loonie as the central bank warns ‘the output gap will close somewhat later than estimated in April, towards the end of 2017.’

Japanese Yen Forecast - Is Japan Nearing the Deployment of ‘Helicopter Money’?
This weekend saw a stark change-of-pace in price action trends around Japanese markets. After Shinzo Abe’s coalition won a super-majority in the upper-hours of Japanese parliament, resistance has been lessened for the push for constitutional reforms and additional economic stimulus.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - New Zealand’s 7-Week Win Streak Backed By 2.25% 10-Yr Yield
The New Zealand Dollar surprised a lot of G10 currencies last week as the seven-week uptrend continued. One reason that the New Zealand Dollar held firm was that doubts are creeping in as to whether the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be able to cut rates as the housing prices surge.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar at Risk on Post-Brexit, Geopolitical Jitters
The Australian Dollar is at the mercy of risk appetite trends once again, with post-Brexit spillover fears and geopolitical jitters threatening the sentiment-linked currency.

Chinese Yuan Forecast - Yuan Tests Resistance on Tightened Liquidity
Both onshore and offshore Yuan retraced against the US Dollar this week: the onshore Yuan (USD/CNY) closed at a slightly more bullish position, at 6.6810 following four consecutive drops on a weekly basis; the offshore Yuan (USD/CNH) touched 6.7076 on Monday and then pulled back after Yuan liquidity was tightened in the offshore market.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices Snap Six-Week Winning Streak- Respect Additional Downside
Gold prices are sharply lower this week with the precious metal down more than 2.8% ahead of the New York close on Friday. The losses snap a six-week winning streak that stretched into two-year highs and come amid continued strength in global equity markets with both the Dow & S&P hitting fresh record highs.

more...

US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Looks to Fed, US GDP, Struggling Euro and Yen to Guide It
The USDollar has advanced for five consecutive weeks – although the pace hardly resembles the unconstrained bull trend through the first quarter of 2015.

Japanese Yen Forecast – USD/JPY July Recovery at Risk on Wait-and-See FOMC/BOJ Policy
The diverging paths between the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may encourage market participants to adopt a long-term bullish bias forUSD/JPY, but the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may heavily impact the near-term outlook should the policy statements show a greater willingness to retain the status quo.

Chinese Yuan Forecast – Yuan Stays in Range on PBOC Guidance
Both the onshore and offshore Yuan rates failed to hold above the key resistance level 6.70, falling below the 6.6800-handle this week.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Aussie Drops on RBA Minutes, Inflation to Provide Directional Cues
The Australian Dollar has put in sizeable reversal of the prior bullish trend this week, falling by as much as 234 pips or 3% against the US Dollar from last Friday’s high.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices Vulnerable Ahead of FOMC/ July Close
Gold prices are weaker for a second consecutive week with the precious metal off by more than 1% ahead of the New York close on Friday.

more...