Technical Forecasts

US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Remains in Control, but Can it Really Hold its Gains
"Momentum clearly remains in the US Dollar’s favor as it trades near key multi-year peaks, and we head into the coming trading week cautiously bullish. Yet it is likewise clear that markets could shift in an instant, and it will be important to remain nimble in what looks to be another indecisive week of price action."

British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD Bounces Up to a Lower High Ahead of UK Inflation Data
"From a technical perspective, the Sterling is still confined to the down-trending channel against its US counterpart. Today’s Doji formation may be a prelude to an evening star, and should Monday’s candle close below 1.5210, the formation will be complete, and this could be an attractive way to sell the pair."

Japanese Yen Forecast – USD/JPY Stuck in Continuation Pattern Ahead of Japan GDP, BoJ Meeting
"In turn, the fundamental developments coming out US/Japan are likely to spark increased volatility in USD/JPY as market participants gauge the next move by the Fed/BoJ, but the pair may consolidate ahead of the major event risk as it appears to be stuck within a bull-flag formation. Nevertheless, the deviating paths for monetary policy accompanied by the continuation pattern in price continues to highlight a long-term bullish outlook for the dollar-yen especially as the pair breaks out of the range carried over from back in September."

Canadian Dollar Forecast – CAD Unable to Prevent Slide As Crude Oil Breaks Support
"If banks take note, this would have the Canadian Dollar replacing the Euro as the carry trade funder, and likely add to the pressure on the Oil-driven currency to continue to see the largest capital outflow of G10FX."

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar May Stall on FOMC Minutes, US CPI
"More of the same on display in the Minutes document may amplify Fed vs RBA policy divergence policy divergence bets, regardless of a more supportive outlook for the Australian monetary authority. US core inflation is expected is expected to register at 1.9 percent for the second consecutive month and may reinforce this dynamic."

New Zealand Dollar Forecast – Fonterra Milk Auction To Put Spotlight on RBNZ’s Next Move
"The Commitment of Traders (CoT) report showed that speculative NZD longs recently outweighed shorts by 20% vs. previous 18%. This positioning data shows that speculative positioning, which is notoriously fickle, is still convincingly long-kiwi, and that increases the risk of a sell-off if USD moves higher in near-future."

Gold Forecast – Gold: Here’s What to Look for After this Historic Run
"Look for interim resistance at 1096/99 on a rebound with only a breach above former TL resistance dating back to the 2015 highs (~1112) invalidating the near-term downtrend. A break below the July low targets objectives at the 100% extension of the decline off the yearly high at 1067 and the broader 61.8% extension of the decline off the 2012 high at 1053. Bottom line: gold prices are at risk for a near-term rebound early next week which may offer more favorable short entries."

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US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Wobbles But Fed Speculation and Liquidity Keep a Bid
The US Dollar this past week thwarted what could have been a nasty reversal that changed the balance of sentiment.

British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD Rebound to Succumb to Dovish BoE Testimony, Strong US GDP
GBP/USD extended the rebound from earlier this month as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes warned of a potential three-way split within the central bank, but the pound-dollar may struggle to hold its ground in the week ahead should the Bank of England (BoE) show a greater willingness to further delay its normalization cycle.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – BoC Governor Poloz Says Data Makes Rate Hike Miles Away
In an ideal economy, which doesn’t exist anywhere, weakness in one sector would be followed or balanced by strength in another sector.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Outlook Clouded as Prices Break from Policy Bets
The outlook for the Australian Dollar is clouded in the week ahead as the currency continues to recover despite an adverse shift in monetary policy expectations.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast – Kiwi Catches its Footing Despite Another Spill in Milk Prices
In previous pieces on the New Zealand Dollar, we’ve discussed the correlation between Milk prices and the spot rate on the Kiwi-Dollar.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices Down for a Fifth Week- Outlook Hinges on US GDP
Gold prices continued to fall for the fifth consecutive week with the precious metal down 0.6% to trade at 1076 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast – US Rate Speculation Versus a Tumultuous World of Fundamentals
The week ahead is the antithesis of what we have come to expect from December.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Faces Perfect Storm of Key Event Risk Ahead
The Australian Dollar faces a perfect storm of volatility in the week ahead as high-profile event risk on the homegrown and the external fronts looms ahead.

Gold Forecast – How Much Air is Left in Gold Prices?
The past six weeks have been brutal for Gold, and this was really sparked by rate hike expectations out of the Federal Reserve, as the top in Gold meshes well with the bottom in the US Dollar (both taking place on October 15th).

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US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Fundamentally Moored Until Fed or Fear Decides Its Fate
A lot has changed for the Dollar this past week.

British Pound Forecast – British Pound Shows Signs of Life – Next Week Could be Big
A volatile week of FX trading pushed the British Pound to fresh six-month lows versus the US Dollar, but a late reversal suggests that the GBP/USD ‘Pounding’ may soon come to an end.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Risk-On & Retail Sales Sends AUDUSD to 4-Month Highs
The Australian Dollar peaked over the October 12th high on Friday.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast – NZD/USD Outlook Hinges on Fate of RBNZ Easing Cycle
NZD/USD may continue to retrace the decline from the October high (0.6896) as subdued wage growth in the world’s largest economy drags on the Fed outlook, but the outcome of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) December 10 policy meeting may drag on the exchange rate should Governor Graeme Wheeler and Co. show a greater willingness to further embark on its easing cycle in 2016.

Chinese Yuan (CNH) Forecast – Chinese Yuan Outlook Remains Ahead of Important Data
The Chinese Yuan Offshore Exchange Rate (USD/CNH) saw little volatility despite a much larger breakdown in the US Dollar, and traders were reminded that CNH remains closely correlated to the onshore Yuan exchange rate (USD/CNY).

Gold Forecast – Gold Snaps 6-Week Losing Streak as NFPs Fuel Bets for 2015 Rate Hike
Gold prices snapped a six-week losing streak on Friday with the precious metal rallying 2.55% to trade at 1084 ahead of the New York close.

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Euro Forecast – Europe: There is Nothing Civil about Civil War, in Politics or Economics
So how about that Euro, huh? After last week’s four-handle burst on the back of the ECB disappointment, many traders looked at this as a gift from markets: The potential to short the currency of an economy that’s facing significant headwinds without the ability to form a strong enough coalition to actually try to counter this weakness.

British Pound Forecast – British Pound Looks Like a Buy, but Watch Huge Event Risk on Fed Decision
Another big week for the British Pound left the GBP/USD exchange rate at fresh monthly highs, but an even-bigger week ahead warns of major volatility for all US Dollar FX counterparts.

Japanese Yen Forecast – JPY Sees Biggest Weekly Gain in 3 Months on Risk Rout
When the Japanese Yen is best performer against the US Dollar over a week and is higher against 31 of its peers over a sixth month span, global markets are typically not ‘Bullish’.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar May Drop as Fed Rate Hike Sinks Risk Appetite
The Australian Dollar may decline if risk aversion breaks out after the Federal Reserve finally delivers its first post-QE interest rate hike at next week’s policy meeting.

Chinese Yuan (CNH) Forecast – Will the Chinese Yuan Stop Falling in the Week Ahead?
In the past week, the Chinese yuan offshore exchange rate against the US Dollar has had little upside action, despite the US Dollar seeing higher volatility while breaking major technical support levels against other currencies.

Gold Forecast – Gold Primed for a push Higher- Sell the Fed Rip
Gold prices are softer this week with the precious metal down nearly 1% to trade at 1075 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast - Fed Finally Hikes Rates. Now What for the US Dollar?
The Fed finally did it! Its interest rates are above zero for the first time in six years. But why did the Dollar not rally, and what might we watch for next?

Euro Forecast - Euro’s Economic Calendar Thins Out Through End of Year
With only a handful of events on the economic calendar over the next two weeks, it seems that the low liquidity environment typical around year end could pave way to some near-term stability.

British Pound Forecast – The Sterling Lining Presents a Glimmer of Hope after Dollar, Yen Drubbings
Data this week, on net, was pretty much a positive for the UK and the British Pound.

Japanese Yen Forecast – USD/JPY Risks Larger Pullback on Dismal US GDP, Sticky Japan CPI
Despite the 2015 Fed liftoff, USD/JPY stands at risk of facing range-bound prices in the week ahead as the final U.S. 3Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is anticipated to show a downward revision in the growth rate, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) largely endorses a wait-and-see approach for 2016.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar Volatility Risk Remains Amid Thin Liquidity
Australian Dollar volatility may break out despite the absence of clear-cut catalysts if unexpected headline risk strikes illiquid markets in pre-holiday trade.

Chinese Yuan (CNH) Forecast – Yuan Enters Retracement Phase, Eye on Domestic Policies
The onshore yuan exchange rate (USD/CNY) ended 10-days of declines before it closed at 6.4800 on Friday.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – Canadian Dollar Hits 11-yr Low vs. USD on Wholesales Trade Data Miss & Macro Factors
The Canadian Dollar is definitively the weakest currency within the G10 as pressures mount on the Bank of Canada to potentially ease again.

Gold Forecast – Gold Holds Range Fed Rate Hike- Shorts at Risk Above 1047
Gold prices are down for the second consecutive week with the precious metal off by 0.84% to trade at 1065 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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US Dollar: Greenback Looks in Trouble Heading into New Year
The US Federal Reserve has finally raised interest rates, and this in itself should support the US Dollar in 2016. Yet a key factor that may stand in the way of further Dollar gains is straightforward: expectations. The Fed expects it will raise rates four times in 2016, but markets predict only half of that. Whether or not the USD finishes higher will depend on this key theme.

International Equities: S&P 500, World Equities at Risk of Major Correction
Global growth has slowed considerably into the end of 2015, and yet global equity indices remain at or near record peaks. Can 2016 finally produce the significant correction which many have feared? We’ll watch a number of critical fundamental themes going forward, while our technical outlook suggests key assets are ripe for an important turn lower.

Gold Price Forecast: Sell-Off May Accelerate as Fed Likely to Hike Rates
Gold prices traded into fresh multi-year lows as the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in eight years. Yet the immediate reaction following the highly-anticipated was relatively muted. What could continue to drive gold price trends through 2016?

Yen Forecast: Fed Rate Hikes and BoJ Action Points to USD/JPY Gains
The Bank of Japan looks likely to keep its aggressive quantitative easing policies in place through 2016, and this position stands in sharp contrast to the US Federal Reserve’s prospective interest rate hike cycle. Individually this should be enough to drive the USD/JPY higher through the New Year, but these are the key factors which will likely determine overall price trends.

Oil Price Forecast: No End in Sight for Oil Price Declines
There appears no end in sight for Crude Oil price declines, and indeed a renewed oil supply war between OPEC and North American producers may exacerbate the supply glut which has driven the major price downtrend. Unless we see a marked shift in global industrial growth, we expect the value of Crude Oil will continue lower through 2016.

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Euro Forecast - Post-ECB Rally Looking Toppy as Euro Data Continues to Disappoint
The first week of the year has brought just the most recent allotment of bad data out of the Euro-zone.

British Pound Forecast – British Pound to Lose Further Unless the FTSE 100 Bounces Sharply
Another big week for the British Pound left the GBP/USD exchange rate at fresh monthly highs, but an even-bigger week ahead warns of major volatility for all US Dollar FX counterparts.

Japanese Yen Forecast – USD/JPY Eyes August Low- Widening Surplus to Keep BoJ on Hold?
A further deterioration in trader sentiment paired with an improvement in Japan’s Balance of Payments (BoP) may spur increased demand for the Yen and trigger another near-term selloff in USD/JPY as market participants scale back their appetite for risk.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Volatility to Continue on China, Jobs Data
The Australian Dollar is at risk of deeper losses as Chinese market turmoil continues to drive risk aversion but upbeat jobs data may help cap negativity.

Chinese Yuan (CNH) Forecast – Yuan is Heading Lower – How Fast Depends on Next Move in Stocks
The yuan rates have broken a lot of records this week.

Gold Forecast – Deteriorating Sentiment to Fuel Gold Rebound- Supported Above 1080
Gold prices are sharply higher this week with the precious metal rallying nearly 3.9% to trade at 1102 ahead of the New York close on Friday.


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US Dollar Forecast - Dollar Hits a 12-Year High, But Can NFPs and Sentiment Maintain Lift?
"The USDollar closed at a fresh 12-year high this past week. Yet, the occasion of breaching such exceptional heights has repeatedly disappointed over the past year."

British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD to Rebound to Succumb to Dovish BOE, Upbeat NFP Report
"The Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision is likely to heavily impact the British Pound next week with the central bank schedule to release its updated forecasts, and the near-term rebound in GBP/USD may continue to unravel should the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) show a greater willingness to further delay the normalization cycle."

Japanese Yen Forecast - BoJ Makes Stealth Move to Negative Rates, Pressure on to China
"Confidence is a pretty important thing in a financial system. After all, in a fiat-based monetary system, all that we really have is faith."

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar May Move on US Data After Static RBA
"The Australian Dollar may find volatility in US new-flow’s impact on risk trends as the RBA maintains the status quo and Chinese economic data passes with little fanfare."

Canadian Dollar Forecast - CAD Rally Stalls After Reversing Longest Losing Streak Since 1971
"Steven Poloz’s refrain of a Bank of Canada rate cut that had become the preferred bet as the Loonie dropped brought a magnificent reversal for the CAD."

Chinese Yuan Forecast – Chinese Yuan Remains Stable Despite of BOJ Decision
"The yuan offshore rate (CNH) moved little against the dollar this week, closing with a slightly bearish position on Friday."

Gold Forecast – Gold Boosted by Softer Fed Stance – Resistance at 1130
Gold prices are higher this week with the precious metal rallying nearly 1.8% to trade at 1117 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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Japanese Yen Forecast - A Week of Wonder and Befuddlement for the Yen
Last week we looked at the astonishing surprise decision by the Bank of Japan to move to negative interest rates.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar Down Trend May Resume on Yellen Testimony
The Australian Dollar may resume its long-term down trend after rebounding to a monthly high last week as testimony from Fed Chair Yellen reboots US rate hike speculation.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – Highest Unemployment Rate in 2yrs. Stalls CAD Rally
This week’s moves have put the Bank of Canada, and CAD traders in a precarious position.

Chinese Yuan Forecast – PBOC Prepared the Yuan Ahead of One-Week Holiday
Both the offshore (CNH) and onshore yuan (CNY) rates closed higher on Friday after China’s central bank raised the yuan reference against the dollar to a one-month high of 6.5314.

Gold Forecast – Gold’s Luster at Risk as Fed Testimony Looms
Gold prices rallied for a third consecutive week with the precious metal advancing more than 3.5% to trade at 1157 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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