Technical Forecasts

US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Direction Depends on Two Critical Weeks Ahead
Another volatile week across global financial markets left the US Dollar trading near key highs versus the Australian Dollar and other commodity-linked currencies.

Canadian Dollar Forecast - Canada Enters Recession: USDCAD Primed for Volatility
It was an interesting week for Canadian economic data: On Tuesday we received a messy GDP report that saw the country slip in to ‘technical recession’ territory; marked by two consecutive quarters of declining GDP growth.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar May Fall Further on Evolving Fed, RBA Policy Bets
The Australian Dollar suffered steep losses last week, tumbling to the weakest level in six years against its US counterpart.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - RBNZ to Provide Insight of External Forces on NZ Economy
The New Zealand Dollar has remained above its ‘Black Monday’ low of 0.6198.

Gold Forecast – Gold Heavy on Dollar Strength, NFPs-September Opening Range in Focus
Gold prices fell for the second consecutive week with the precious metal off by 1.3% to trade at 1118 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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Euro Forecast- Euro ‘Funding-Currency’ Status at Risk on Hawkish Fed Outlook
The Federal Reserve’s September 17 interest rate decision may heavily impact the near to medium-term outlook for EUR/USD especially as the European Central Bank (ECB) shows a greater willingness to further embark on its easing cycle.

British Pound Forecast- British Inflation Could Bring a New Trend to the Pound
Rate expectations in the United Kingdom have been on a similar, albeit more consistent rollercoaster as that of their American trading partners.

Japanese Yen Forecast- JPY Bears Rejoice on BoJ Advisor’s QE Recommendation
The following headlines caused JPY bears to rejoice this week and were a key reason the JPY ended the week weaker against AUD & EUR by ~3.75% and ~2.95% respectively.

Gold Forecast- Gold Sell-Off Approaches Familiar Territory – FOMC to Pave the Way
Gold prices are weaker for a third consecutive week with the precious metal off by 1.5% to trade at 1104 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Gains Despite Fed Reticence, Is a Risk Shift Afoot?
The big day has come and gone. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-1 to keep the range for the benchmark interest rate between 0.00 and 0.25 percent.

British Pound Forecast- GBP/USD Risks Larger Post-Fed Advance Amid Narrowing Race With BoE
GBP/USD may continue to retrace the decline from the previous month as the Bank of England (BoE) still anticipates faster inflation later this year, while the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) turns increasingly cautious towards the risks posed by a further appreciation in the reserve currency.

Japanese Yen Forecast- US Dollar Traders Should Keep an Eye on USD/JPY for Next Big Moves
The Japanese Yen finished the week near critical resistance versus the US Dollar (USD/JPY support), and whether or not it trades higher could have a significant impact on the USD across the board.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar at Risk Amid Growing Global Slowdown Fears
The Australian Dollar may turn lower anew following a two-week recovery as global slowdown fears weigh on risk appetite and hurt the sentiment-linked currency.

Canadian Dollar Forecast- In-Line CPI and PM Elections Turn CAD Focus Away From Oil for Now
Canada’s August consumer price index came in right as expected across the board for the year-over-year reading with no revisions providing signs of stability in the energy reliant economy.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast- For the Kiwi, it’s All About the Milk
After embarking on one of the most emboldened down-trends of the year, the Kiwi-Dollar spent the better part of two weeks attempting to break-through support at the ‘panic lows’ of August 24th.

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US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Nears 12 Year Highs But Does It Have Motivation to Break?
The US Dollar posted an impressive advance this past week, but it conspicuously fell short of breaking the 12-year high on the Index and clearing key range boundaries with major counterparts.

Japanese Yen Forecast – USD/JPY Vulnerable as Yen Leans on ‘Funding-Currency’ Status
The long-term outlook for USD/JPY remains bullish amid the deviating paths for monetary policy, but the range-bound price action in the exchange rate may unravel in the days ahead as market participants continue to treat the Japanese Yen as a ‘funding-currency.’

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar at the Mercy of US, China News Flow Once Again
The Australian Dollar continues to look to external developments for direction cues, with prices at the mercy of US and Chinese news-flow in the week ahead.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – The Canadian Economy is Ensnared by the Impact of Falling Oil Prices
CAD finished the week higher against the USD by ~1% and benefited similar to other commodity currencies post-FOMC against the USD within the G10.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast – NZD Ends Week on a Positive Note After Fonterra Upgrades Forecast
Fonterra raised their milk payout forecast on Thursday giving NZD an end-of-week boost.

Gold Forecast – Gold Rallies Into Critical Resistance Ahead Fed, NFP
Gold prices are firmer for the second consecutive week with the precious metal up 0.57% to trade at 1145 ahead of the Ney York close on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar At Risk of Sharper Retreat as Rate and Risk Pressure Fade
The Dollar was within reach of 12-year highs this past week; but when the opportunity was presented to revive the long-term bull climb, fundamentals falterd.

British Pound Forecast – Sterling Finds Support Ahead of Pivotal BOE Meeting
One of the few bright spots in the Global Economy that isn’t currently being engulfed by continued Central Bank jockeying (looking at you, Federal Reserve) has been the United Kingdom.

Japanese Yen Forecast – USD/JPY Fails to Break Sept. Range Ahead of Fed Minutes, BoJ Meeting
The range-bound price action in USD/JPY may unravel in the week ahead should the fundamental developments coming out of the U.S. economy dampen bets for a 2015 Fed rate hike, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to retain a wait-and-see approach at the October 7 interest rate decision.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Torn Between RBA Policy Bets, Risk Appetite Trends
The Australian Dollar is looking toward a volatile week ahead as prices are torn between the influence of RBA policy considerations and market-wide sentiment trends.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – CAD Pushes Higher After Hitting 11yr Low, Still Oil Dependent
The Canadian Dollar witnessed a strong rise to end the week after a weak start.

Gold Forecast – Gold Sell-Off Approaches Familiar Territory- FOMC to Pave the Way
Gold put in a peculiar week of price action as four days’ worth of selling were nearly erased by one really strong NFP-fueled rally.

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US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Risks Major Bearish Reversal after Worst Drop in 4 Months
The Dollar suffered its worst stumble in four months this past week and technical traders recognize the unstable ground the currency currently stands on.

British Pound Forecast – BoE Strikes Cautious Tone on Global Growth Concerns
The British Pound continues to trade with a mean-reversion tendency as prognostications around future rate hikes are becoming even more complex given the headwinds being seen by the global economy.

Japanese Yen Forecast – USD/JPY Breakout on Sticky U.S. Inflation, Upbeat Fed
The range-bound price action in USD/JPY may persist next week as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to endorse a wait-and-see approach, but the fresh developments coming out of the world’s largest economy may trigger a topside break in the exchange rate should the data prints boost bets for a 2015 Fed rate hike.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Rally May Stall on Jobs Data, US Inflation Uptick
The Australian Dollar’s impressive recovery may stall as soft jobs data fuels RBA rate cut bets while an uptick in US inflation rekindles Fed tightening speculation.

Gold Forecast – Gold Prices Pivot Into Resistance- Breakout Potential on Dismal CPI
Gold prices are firmer this week with the precious metal up 1.44% to trade at 1154 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast - Dollar’s Bearish Spark Fails to Power Trend as Risk and Fed Balance
The Dollar Index suffered a distinctive and bearish technical break of 2015’s carefully contained congestion this past week. Yet, the speculative bait wasn’t taken by the market.

British Pound Forecast – Mixed Bag of UK Data with a Weak US Dollar Drives GBP/USD Higher
Last week the Bank of England struck a cautious tone as global growth concerns raised enough red flags for the Monetary Policy Committee to vote 8-1 in favor of keeping rates flat at .5%.

Japanese Yen Forecast – USD/JPY Decline to Eye August Low on Japan Trade Surplus, Dovish Fed
The key event risks due out next week may heighten the appeal of the Japanese Yen and fuel a further decline in USD/JPY should the developments undermine speculation for a further expansion in the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) asset-purchase program.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar at Risk as China Data Stokes RBA Rate Cut Bets
The Australian Dollar may turn lower after hitting a two-month high as soft Chinese GDP data amplifies swelling RBA interest rate cut speculation.

Gold Forecast – China GDP, Fed Rhetoric to Steer Gold Breakout - $1151 Now Support
Gold prices are higher for a second consecutive week with the precious metal up 2.33% to trade at 1183 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar’s Bid for 12-Year High Will Hinge on Fed’s Decision
The Dollar posted its best week performance in five months with this past Friday’s close.

British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD Searches for Support as Rebound Unravels- GDP, FED in Focus
GBP/USD stands at risk of facing increased volatility in the week ahead as market attention turns to the Federal Reserve’s October 28 interest rate decision, while the U.S. & U.K. are scheduled to release their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports for the third-quarter of 2016

Japanese Yen Forecast – Volatility Near-Guaranteed on Critical Week for the USD/JPY
The Japanese Yen fell for six consecutive trading days and finished the week at multi-month lows versus the resurgent US Dollar, and a big week ahead promises big moves for the USD/JPY and other Yen pairs.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Volatility to Return on RBA, Fed Policy Speculation
Australian Dollar volatility is set to return after two weeks of lackluster momentum amid heavy speculation about the direction of RBA and Federal Reserve monetary policy.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast – Drooping Milk Prices Drive NZD/USD Lower Ahead of RBNZ
It was one of those good news/bad news weeks for the New Zealand economy.

Gold Forecast – Gold Sinks as USD Soars- FOMC to Setup Bigger Picture Advance?
Gold prices are weaker this week with the precious metal down 1.3% to trade at 1161 ahead of the New York close on Friday- its largest weekly decline since August.

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US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar to Tap Fed Speakers, NFPs For Another Run at 12 Year High
The Dollar was once again offered the opportunity to make a run on 2015’s highs and move on to levels not seen since 2003.

British Pound Forecast – Post-Fed GBP/USD Rebound at Risk on Dovish BoE, Soft Inflation Report
With GBP/USD largely reversing the decline following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) policy meeting, the pair may continue to face range-bound prices in the week ahead as market attention turns to the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision on November 3.

Japanese Yen Forecast – Bank of Japan Keeps the Japanese Yen in Tight Range – What Now?
A notable disappointment from the Bank of Japan meant the Japanese Yen and the USD/JPY exchange rate finished the week almost exactly where they began.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – Oil Prices Could Drive the CAD Lower Before the Recession Ends
The Canadian Dollar continued to slide lower to start the week, furthering the return of the up-trend in USD/CAD led by a precipitous drop in Oil prices.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Fire as RBA Meeting, US Jobs Data Loom
The Australian Dollar is on the defensive, falling for a third consecutive week as an RBA monetary policy announcement and key US employment data loom ahead.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast – The End of China’s One-Child Policy Charges NZD Higher
The New Zealand Dollar took flight over the month of October. Much relief for NZD Bulls came this week specifically despite an overtly dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand and surprisingly hawkish Federal Reserve.

Gold Forecast – Gold Pops and Drops on Fed-Prices Target Support Ahead of NFP’s
Gold prices are lower for a second consecutive week with the precious metal down 1.8% to trade at 1142 ahead of the New York close on Friday.


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US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Breaks a 12-Year High but is Momentum A Guarantee?
Eight months of congestion have been brought to a dramatic end this past week as the US Dollar mounted an impressive rally in the aftermath of the October labor report.

British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD 2015 Rebound to Unravel Further as BoE Lags Behind Fed
GBP/USD stands at risk of extended the decline from the beginning of the month should the key developments coming out of the U.K./U.S. largely boost speculation for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to normalize monetary policy ahead of the Bank of England (BoE).

Japanese Yen Forecast – Traders Believe USD/JPY Could Rally Further – What Could Change?
The Japanese Yen finally showed signs it might break its long-standing trading range as it fell to multi-month lows versus the resurgent US Dollar.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – Oil Prices May be Creating an Even Larger Problem for Canada
Just last week we reiterated our bearish forecast for the Canadian Dollar on the basis of expected weakness in Oil prices.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar May Fall Further as Fed, RBA Divergence Deepens
The Australian Dollar looks vulnerable to deeper losses as domestic and external news-flow embellishes the expected divergence between RBA and Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Gold Forecast – Gold Route to Persist as Stellar NFPs Point to December Hike
Gold prices plunged for a third consecutive week with the precious metal down more than 4.7% to trade at 1088 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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