Technical Forecasts

US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Volatility and Direction in US Government’s Hands
Through Friday’s close, the dollar has dropped for five consecutive weeks (the longest slide in three years) and probed a five-month low.

Japanese Yen Forecast –Japanese Yen at the Mercy of US Fiscal Monetary Policy Cues
The Japanese Yen is at the mercy of US fiscal and monetary policy trends as the government remains shuttered and investors ponder the Fed’s intent to “taper” QE.

British Pound Forecast - British Pound May Have Set 2013 Peak – Two Key Themes to Watch
The British Pound surged to fresh year-to-date highs only to finish lower versus the US Dollar, suggesting that the previously high-flying Sterling may have set an important top through recent trading.

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U.S. Dollar Forecast - Dollar Volatility Guaranteed on Debt Talks, Risk Waves and NFPs…
The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar (ticker = USDollar) broke a five-week bear trend while the benchmark S&P 500 leveraged a massive 3.5 percent intra-week rally this past week
Euro Forecast - Euro Needs Signs of Continued Economic Recovery Before Next Rally
The Euro had a mixed week as US fiscal headlines were the main focus of price action across asset classes around the globe.
British Pound Forecast - British Pound to Face Limited Correction on Stronger U.K. Recovery
The British Pound struggled to maintain the bullish trend dating back to July even as the Bank of England (BoE) retained its current policy at the October meeting, but the sterling may trade on a firmer footing next week should the fundamental developments coming out of the U.K. encourage the central bank to implement its exit strategy ahead of scheduled.
Gold Forecast - Gold at Risk for Further Losses Amid Imminent U.S. DebtDeal
Gold prices plummeted 3.21% this week with the precious metal trading at $1268 ahead of the New York close on Friday.
Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar Strength Challenged by China Data, US Impasse
The Australian Dollar’s recovery faces an important challenge from key Chinese economic data while the budget impasse in the US threatens to unleash risk aversion.

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US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Traders Link Long-Term Trend to Key NFPs Release
The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) dropped 1.2 percent this past week – the sixth drop in seven weeks.

Euro Forecast – Euro Gaining versus Dollar but Struggling Elsewhere amid Middling Data
The Euro failed to capitalize on bolstered risk flows thanks to a medium-term resolution to the US fiscal deadlock, although it did manage to make significant progress towards its yearly highs ($1.3710 on February 1) against the US Dollar by the end of the week ($1.3704 on October 18).

British Pound Forecast -British Pound Looks Dangerously Overstretched - How do We Trade
The British Pound surged versus the downtrodden US Dollar and yet finished just short of year-to-date peaks.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Japanese Yen Strength to Be Undermined by Slowing Inflation
The Japanese Yen regained its footing against the dollar, with the USDJPY slipping back below the 98.00 handle, and the pair may continue to give back the rebound from earlier this month as it carves a lower high just below the 99.00 region.

Gold Forecast - Gold Eyes Monthly High Ahead of NFPs as Bearish Momentum Falters
Gold prices rallied 3.24% this week with the precious metal trading at $1313 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The advance comes amid a rally in broader equity markets with the S&P making fresh record highs while a substantial sell-off in the greenback was further exacerbated as the government shut-down pushed out expectations for a Fed tapper this year. Subsequently, gold rebounded off key support at $1268 with the rally breaching a medium-term technical formation.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar Braces for Impact as US Data Backlog Emerges
We’ve argued in favor of a significant Australian Dollar recovery since early August.



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US Dollar Forecast - Next Leg of Collapse Rests in FOMC’s Hands
Conditions are ideal. That would be the simple interpretation of our circumstances if we were to take the S&P 500’s record highs and the collapse in volatility at face value.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Why Hasn’t the Japanese Yen Broken Higher Yet?
The Japanese Yen gained sharply versus the Australian Dollar and other commodity-linked currencies, but it remained nearly unchanged versus the US Dollar. Why hasn’t it broken higher?

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar at Risk Absent Dovish Shift in FOMC Rhetoric
The Australian Dollar may come under pressure amid market-wide risk aversion absent a discernible dovish shift in next week’s FOMC monetary policy statement.




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US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Ready for Further Gains, but What Stands in the Way?
What a difference a week makes. The US Dollar surged versus the Euro and other major forex counterparts and the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index posted its single-largest weekly gain in 5 months.

Euro Forecast – Euro Collapse Versus Dollar as Much an ECB Factor as Risk Trends
The Euro was the worst performer of the majors – and the drop it suffered was nothing short of spectacular.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Sensitive to RBA Decision and Risk Trend
We’ve argued in favor of a significant Australian Dollar recovery since early August.

Gold Forecast - Gold Sell-off Intensifies as USD Firms- GDP, NFPs, in Focus

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US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Attempts Major Reversal as Taper, Risk Debate Heats Up
The dollar finished the week higher against nearly all of its major counterparts with particularly impressive performances from EURUSD and USDJPY.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar Looks to China Plenum to Inform RBA Outlook
The Australian Dollar is looking to economic reforms set to emerge out of China’s third Plenum to guide domestic growth and RBA policy expectations.

Japanese Yen Forecast – Is the USD/JPY Finally Ready to Break Higher?
The Japanese Yen finished the week almost exactly where it began, but an impressive Dollar surge leaves the USDJPY exchange rate at major technical levels.

British Pound Forecast - Pound Range at Risk on Hawkish BoE Inflation Report- 1.6300 in Focus
The British Pound may continue to track sideways next week as it retains the range-bound price action carried over from the previous month, but the Bank of England’s (BoE) Inflation Report may ultimately spark a more meaningful run at the 1.6300 handle should the central bank show a greater willingness to implement it exit strategy ahead of schedule.

Gold Forecast - Gold Eyes Key Support as Blowout GDP/NFPs Fuel USD Rally



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US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Traders Weigh Taper, ECB and BoJ Stimulus Plans
We are in the midst of another stimulus war, and this time the dollar may be one of the better positioned combatants.

British Pound Forecast - Bearish GBP Momentum Falters- 1.63 in Focus Going Into BoE Minutes
The British Pound climbed to a fresh monthly high of 1.6134, with the GBPUSD continuing to close above the 1.5900 handle, and the sterling may continue to track higher next week should the Bank of England (BoE) Minutes highlight a greater willingness to implement the exit strategy ahead of schedule.

Gold Forecast - Is the Gold Rebound Over? Techs Suggest No, FOMC to Confirm


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• Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) finishes near multi-month highs on Yen and Aussie Dollar tumbles
• Volatility might slow in the week ahead, but keep an eye on key event risk in Japan
• Have a strong opinion on the Dollar? Voice it through FXCM currency baskets

US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Likely to Continue Higher, but Against Which Currencies?
The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) rallied for its third week of the past four and finished near multi-month highs. A holiday-shortened week suggests the Dollar price action may slow, but why might the Greenback see big moves in the days ahead?

Japanese Yen Forecast - Yen to Extended Losses as Stagnant Price Growth Undermines BoJ Pledge
The USDJPY rally may gather pace during the final week of November as the slowing recovery in Japan undermines the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) pledge to achieve the 2% target for inflation by 2015.

Gold Price Forecast – Gold at 4-month Lows, But Can Sell-Off be Sustained?
Gold plummeted more than 3.5% this week with the precious metal trading at $1244 ahead of the New York close on Friday. But with the November close and a shortened week ahead, can the sell-off be sustained?

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar at the Mercy of Fed QE Taper Speculation
The Australian Dollar is at the mercy of risk sentiment trends in the week ahead as with US economic news-flow feeds continued Fed QE “taper” speculation.




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U.S. Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Will Make Breakout Bid as Market Uses NFPs to Gauge Taper
The past week was one of consolidation for both market conditions and price action for the US Dollar.

British Pound Forecast - GBP Poised to Clear 1.6400 as BoE Removes FLS- Key Themes for 2014
The bullish sentiment surrounding the British Pound may gather pace in December should the Bank of England (BoE) continue to show a greater willingness to implement its exit strategy ahead of schedule.

Gold Forecast – Gold at 4-Month Lows on Strong USD- GDP, NFPs to Drive December Open
Gold nudged higher this week with the precious metal advancing 0.66% to trade at $1251 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Aussie Dollar to Look Past RBA Meeting, Focus on US News-Flow
The Australian Dollar remained under pressure last week, dropping to the lowest level in three months against its US namesake.




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US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Falls Despite Strong Payrolls Data - What Could Save it?
A strong run of US economic data and a particularly positive November employment report wasn’t enough to lift the US Dollar as it fell against most major counterparts.

Euro Forecast – Euro Avoids Stimulus-Led Collapse but a Strong Rally Unlikely
It was a sense of relief that rallied the euro this past week.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar Finds a Temporary Lifeline in Seasonal Forces
The Australian Dollar dipped to a three-month low last week.

Gold Forecast - Gold Slumps Amid Improving US Outlook- November Range in Focus



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