Technical Forecasts

US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Needs S&P 500 Volatility to Leverage a Rally
The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) rose every day of the past trading week. We haven’t seen a five consecutive day advance from this benchmark since the run through November 1 – notably the beginning of an impressive bull run for the greenback.

British Pound Forecast - British Pound May Fall Further on Big Week Ahead
The British Pound went from market leader to laggard, falling for five-consecutive trading days just after setting fresh multi-year highs the week before.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar May Weaken Further on Renewed Risk Aversion
The Australian Dollar declined as expected last week and we continue to hold a short AUD/USD position from 0.90, looking for further weakness.

Gold Forecast - Is the Gold Rally Over? $1338 in Focus Ahead of Key US Data
Gold prices nudged higher this week with the precious metal advancing 0.25% to trade at $1322 ahead of the New York close on Friday.


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US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Risks Plunge as SPX Hits a Record, EURUSD Tests 1.3800
The dollar’s recovery effort fell apart this past week as a record push for the S&P 500 spawned ‘risk appetite’ headlines and the market’s Taper interests continued to fade.

Euro Foreacst - Euro Could Surge if Rebounding Inflation Translates into ECB Hold
The Euro is back at yearly highs against the US Dollar as deflation fears continue to be misguided, recent EZ CPI data showed. Now, any additional aggressive policy action in the near-term looks less likely from the European Central Bank.

British Pound Forecast - GBP to Target Higher High on BoE Policy Outlook; 1.6850-60 in Sight
The British Pound looks well on its way to fresh highs as we see a growing number of Bank of England (BoE) officials prepare U.K. households for an imminent rise in borrowing costs.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Yen Crosses May Revive Equities Correlation…On a Collapse
The Japanese yen put in for a mixed performance this past week versus its major counterparts. Yet, such a performance is much more disconcerting than the benign picture it seems to put on.

Australian Dollar Forecast - AUD vulnerable as Risk Sentiment Sours Anew
The week ahead promises to be action-packed for the Australian Dollar, with a slew of catalysts on the domestic and the global front due to cross the wires.

Gold Forecast - Gold at Resistance Heading Into March- All Eyes on Central Banks, NFPs
Gold prices were virtually unchanged on the week with prices holding just below key resistance to trade at $1322 ahead of the New York close on Friday.



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US Dollar Forecast - USD Sharply Lower as S&P Surges – What Could Change That?
The US Dollar finished the week sharply lower against major FX counterparts, but a better-than-expected labor market report forced it off of multi-year lows into Friday’s close. What’s next for the Greenback?

British Pound Forecast - GBP to Target 1.6850-60 on Hawkish Bank of England (BoE) Testimony
The GBPUSD pulled back from a fresh monthly high of 1.6784 following the better-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, but the British Pound may continue to coil up for a move higher as the Bank of England (BoE) moves away from its easing cycle.

Japanese Yen Forecast – Yen Crosses Jump but Distrust Remains for Risk Trends, BoJ Plans
There are two primary concerns for yen cross traders: is risk appetite supporting these over-valued carry trades and will the Bank of Japan follow through on its tacit vow to drive its currency lower?

Australian Dollar Forecast - AUD vulnerable as Risk Sentiment Sours Anew
The week ahead promises to be action-packed for the Australian Dollar, with a slew of catalysts on the domestic and the global front due to cross the wires.

Gold Forecast - Post NFP Break Below $1330 May Signal Gold Top in Place
Gold is firmer at the close of trade this week with the precious metal up by nearly 1% to trade at $1335 ahead of the New York close on Friday.




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US Dollar Looks to Fear, FOMC to Set Off Lasting Bull Trend
What will move the US dollar in the week ahead? We are awash in major fundamental catalysts – the type that can generate meaningful trends and not just short-lived bouts of volatility.

Japanese Yen Surge May Offer Attractive Selling Opportunity
The Japanese Yen rallied sharply versus the US Dollar and other major counterparts as the highly-correlated Nikkei 225 posted its worst weekly performance in 9 months.

Gold on 6 Week Streak- $1400 within Striking Distance Ahead of FOMC
Gold rallied for a sixth consecutive week with the precious metal advancing 2.8% to trade at $1378 ahead of the New York close on Friday.




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US Dollar Rally Might Run out of Steam Unless this Changes
The US Dollar finally showed signs of life as a surprisingly-upbeat Federal Reserve sent it sharply higher versus major counterparts. Yet key headwinds remain, and a number of factors suggest that buying USD makes little sense at these levels.

Yen Crosses at Risk of Collapse – Particularly Should Risk Trends Shift
Half of the most liquid Yen crosses closed out this past week in the green. Though, that should provide long-term bulls little relief. So far in 2014, this once high-flying group is under water.

British Pound Risks Further Losses on Slowing U.K. CPI – 1.6400 Remains Critical
The British Pound may face a larger correction in the week ahead as the headline reading for U.K. inflation is expected to narrow to an annualized 1.7% in February.

Gold Reverses March Rally on Upbeat Fed – Bearish Sub $1357
Gold saw the largest weekly decline in four months this week with the precious metal off by more than 3.4% to trade at $1335 ahead of the new York close on Friday.

Australian Dollar Looks for Cues in US Economic Data, Fed-Speak
The Australian Dollar continues to look to external factors for direction cues, with US economic data and a busy Fed-speak docket highlighted in the week ahead.



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US Dollar Prepares for Impact of NFPs Release, S&P 500 Breakout
Over the past weeks, the dollar has generated little strength from its safe haven status while its yield buoyancy following the FOMC’s third Taper lost traction. In periods of complacency and moderation, the greenback is at risk of retracing event-driven short-term gains – just like volatility has quickly deflated swell after swell.

British Pound Lining up for Significant Turn – What Could Warn Us?
The British Pound finally showed signs of life as it finished the week at its longest-consecutive daily rally in two months. Yet the Sterling remains below important price levels, and a number of technical factors favor GBP weakness into a big week for forex markets.

USD/JPY at Risk for Key Break- U.S. NFPs, Japan’s VAT in Focus
Japan’s consumer-tax hike, which takes effect April 2014, certainly clouds the fundamental outlook for the Japanese Yen, while the technical formations highlight the risk for a major move as the USD/JPY remains stuck in the wedge/triangle from the beginning of the year.

Gold Primed to Rip or Dip Ahead of Key Event Risk- $1268 Key Support
Gold was sharply lower with the precious metal off by more than 3% for the second consecutive week to trade at $1293 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The losses have persisted despite continued weakness in the greenback with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) closing the week just above key support at 10,500.



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US Dollar’s Next Run Requires a Much Stronger Push
The US Dollar is a favored safe haven currency. That is a good role to play given the slide in US equities and other ‘risk’ benchmarks to close this past week.

USD/JPY Capped by Former Support – Upbeat BoJ Risks Larger Decline
The USDJPY pulled back from a fresh monthly high of 104.11 as the weaker-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report dragged on the dollar, and the pair may face a larger decline in the week ahead should the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continue to scale back its willingness to further expand its asset-purchase program.

ECB Sets Table for Lower Euro Prices – Here’s How
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) patience with the region’s lackluster recovery may be running out, if one is to believe the rhetoric deployed by President Mario Draghi at the April press conference.

British Pound Will Look for Rate Hopes to Keep 1.6500 Intact
The British pound offered up an unflattering performance this past week. While the currency was unable to mount a meaningful advance, neither would it loose substantial ground against most counterparts.

Gold NFP Rally Likely to be Short Lived - $1327 Key Resistance
Gold prices are firmer on the week with the precious metal rallying 0.5% to trade at $1302 ahead of the New York close on Friday.



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Dollar: A Thunderous Collapse or Slow Revival
The dollar has suffered. A 1.1 percent tumble through the past week marks the currency’s worst performance since October 18 – notably, when the greenback bottomed out a three-month slide.

What’s the Risk of a Much larger Japanese Yen Breakout?
The Japanese Yen surged against major forex counterparts as the S&P 500 and Japanese Nikkei 225 tumbled. A rush to safety favored the JPY, and the fact that it trades at critical resistance (USDJPY support) suggests the week ahead could bring further volatility.

GBP/USD Remains Poised for Higher High on Strong U.K. Recovery
The British Pound struggled to hold above the 1.6800 handle after failing to clear the February high (1.6821), but the fundamental developments coming out next week may generate fresh highs in the GBP/USD as the economic recovery in the U.K. gathers pace.

Gold at Major Inflection Point Ahead of Fed Beige Book - $1327 Key
Gold saw the largest weekly decline in four months this week with the precious metal off by more than 3.4% to trade at $1335 ahead of the new York close on Friday.

Chinese Yuan Risks Drop to 12-Month Lows On Heavy Data
The Chinese Yuan (also called the Renminbi) attempted a recovery in its opening move of this past week, but the currency would ultimately end back up on the cusp of 12-month lows against its US counterpart.


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Dollar Pushed to the Edge with Risk and Yields Raising the Stakes
Though its progress was restrained by the same liquidity drain that reined in risk trends, the dollar managed a broad recovery this past week. Yet, the conviction behind this move comes with a heavy dose of doubt.

Bullish USD/JPY Outlook at Risk as Japanese Inflation Picks Up
A further pickup in market sentiment should continue to fuel the near-term rally in the USD/JPY, but the fundamental developments coming out next week may keep the dollar-yen contained within the wedge/triangle formation as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains upbeat on the economy..

British Pound at Clear Risk as Positions Stretched and Gains Slowing
The British Pound was the only major currency to strengthen against the US Dollar in a holiday-shortened week of trading, but can it continue higher? The high-flying Sterling will need support from the Bank of England to hold near multi-year peaks in the week ahead.

Gold Carves Lower High in April- Bearish Below $1327
Gold is off sharply this week with the precious metal shedding 1.7% to trade at $1298 heading into the weekend. The sell-off comes on the back of the strong performance in US equity markets with all three major stock indices closing higher by 1-1.7% on the week.

Australian Dollar Facing Conflicting Domestic, External Catalysts
The Australian Dollar’s month-long winning streak ran into resistance last week as the build-up in RBA policy expectations stumbled.

New Zealand Dollar: Lots of Room to Disappoint in RBNZ
The market seems pretty certain that the New Zealand central bank will usher in the strongest wave of monetary policy – and thereby carry increase – of the majors.




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Dollar’s IndecisionLikely to End with FOMC, NFPs, 1Q GDP
Stability is one thing, but the quiet that currently hangs over the markets carries the hallmarks of extraordinary complacency and an inevitable reversal to the opposite extreme. Given the markets lean and positioning over the years, the more charged scenario would be one where risk aversion and deleveraging unfold.

Japanese Yen Might Finally See Breakout on BoJ, FOMC, and NFPs
The Japanese Yen finished higher as a noteworthy pullback in the Nikkei 225 pushed the USD/JPY exchange rate to weekly lows. Yet the true fireworks may come on upcoming Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve rate decisions, while US labor market data may likewise spark big moves in the USDJPY.

GBP/USD to Eye Fresh Highs as U.K. GDP Highlights Stronger Recovery
The GBP/USD may continue to mark fresh highs ahead of the next Bank of England (BoE)meeting on May 8 as the stronger recovery in the U.K. puts increased pressure on the central bank to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

Gold Rally At Risk Ahead of Key US Event Risk- Bearish Sub $1327
Gold prices are firmer on the week with the precious metal advancing 0.52% to trade at $1300 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The advance comes on the back of a sell-off in broader risk assets this week with all three major US stock indices closing markedly lower on the session.




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