Technical Forecasts

US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar in Danger of Further Losses – Here are the Key Risks
The US Dollar tumbled for the second straight week against the Japanese Yen and other major counterparts in a volatile week for global markets.

Japanese Yen Forecast - It’s the Bank of Japan versus the Rest of the World
It’s been quite the week for the Yen, and taking a step back, it’s been quite the two-week stretch for the Japanese currency.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – Canadian Dollar Has Found Life Outside The Price Of Oil
The Canadian Dollar continues to claw back some of the 23% drop since the May 2015 low against the US Dollar.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar at Risk on RBA Outlook, Global Sentiment Trends
The Australian Dollar recoiled sharply higher after hitting a 4-year low but a deteriorating RBA policy outlook and churning sentiment trends may renew selling pressure.

Gold Forecast – Gold Rockets to Fresh Highs as Equity Rout Continues
Gold prices soared for a fourth consecutive week with the precious metal rallying more than 5% to trade at 1247 on Thursday evening in New York.

Chinese Yuan Forecast – China Reopens after Holiday Week, How Will the Yuan Respond?
The offshore Yuan (CNH) rose to the highest level in two months against the US Dollar this week thanks to a smaller-than-expected drop in China’s foreign reserves combined with Chair Yellen’s testimony saying that negative rates are not out of the question for the US economy.

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US Dollar Forecast – Dollar: What Will It Take to Recharge Momentum in the Coming Week?
A retreat through Friday left the USDollar with limited gains on the week. Nevertheless, the Greenback will head into the new trading week with tangible gains against the Euro and Pound – two of its most liquid counterparts.

British Pound Forecast - Brexit Deal Could Bring a Bid to GBP
Dominating the headlines for the foreseeable future in the UK will be the prospect of a ‘Brexit,’ or a British exit from the European Union.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Japanese Yen Poised to Gain Further Unless this Changes
The Japanese Yen finished the week marginally higher despite a clear disappointment in economic growth figures, and two key themes will likely determine whether the JPY resumes its impressive year-to-date uptrend.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – USD/CAD Range Vulnerable to Fresh Fed Rhetoric, Slowing U.S. GDP
The long-term outlook for USD/CAD remains tilted to the upside amid the deviating paths for monetary policy, but signs of a slowing recovery in the world’s largest economy may spur a further correction in the exchange rate especially as the Federal Reserve remains in no rush to implement higher borrowing-costs.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Aussie Dollar at the Mercy of Risk Trends on US, Eurozone Data
The Australian Dollar is set to look past a lackluster domestic data docket to trade with risk sentiment trends on the back of high-profile US and Eurozone event risk.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast – New Zealand Interest Rates Expectations Favor NZD Bears
The New Zealand Dollar remains unable to sustain a push higher as the macroeconomic data continues to prevent a risk-on rally, which NZD benefits from to be sustained.

Gold Forecast – Lackluster US GDP to Help Gold Shine- 1252 Hurdle in View
Gold prices snapped a 4-week winning streak this week with the precious metal off 0.84% to trade at 1227 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast – Dollar Gains as Market Chews Rate Expectations with NFPs Ahead
This past week’s USDollar rally marked the currency’s best performance since November’s dramatic break to 12-year highs – a move that proved a quick exhaustion.

British Pound Forecast – Brexit to Dominate Headlines, GBP Price Action
What a difference a week can make: Near market close last Friday, news had just begun to circulate that Mr. David Cameron had struck a deal with European leadership that could allow for British leadership to lobby for an ‘in’ vote in the upcoming Brexit referendum.

Japanese Yen Forecast -Japanese Yen Forecast to Gain until Status Quo Changes
The Japanese Yen rallied for the fourth-consecutive week versus theEuroandBritish Pound, but a week of strong US economic data and disappointments out of Japan helped the USD/JPY exchange rate break its recent losing streak.

Canadian Dollar Forecast – Bank of Canada Expectations Ushers CAD To Top Spot in G10
Many market participants have been trained to look at Oil any time the Canadian Dollar moves.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Aussie Dollar Faces Perfect Storm of Domestic, External Pressure
The Australian Dollar may succumb to heavy selling pressure as prices face a perfect storm of high-profile domestic and external event risk.

Chinese Yuan Forecast – Yuan a Key Topic at Chinese Annual Conferences
Both onshore Yuan (CNY) and offshore Yuan (CNH) rates moved little this week; both closed slightly lower against the US Dollar on Friday.

Gold Forecast – Gold Consolidation Break to Clear the Way Ahead of NFPs
Gold prices slid for a second consecutive week with the precious metal off just 0.2% to trade at 1224 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD Rebound at Risk as BoE Speaks on U.K. Referendum
After posting the first five-consecutive days of advances since June, GBP/USD stands at risk facing near-term headwinds should Bank of England (BoE) officials endorse a wait-and-see approach ahead of their next interest rate decision on March 17.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Japanese Yen Poised to Gain this week if Big Event Disappoints
A great week for the US S&P 500, Japanese Nikkei 225, and other global financial bellwethers pushed the inversely-correlated Japanese Yen lower against almost all G10 counterparts.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Outlook Hinges on ECB Meeting, China News-Flow
The Australian Dollar will look to the impact of the ECB rate decision on risk appetite trends and news-flow from China’s NPC for fuel to extend the largest rally in four years.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - RBNZ Will Provide Guidance on NZ Dollar’s Recent Flight
The New Zealand Dollar has out-performed every currency aside from its rival Australian Dollar over the last week.

Gold Forecast – All That Glitters is Gold
This title is a line taken from Shakespeare. He actually said ‘all that glisters is not gold,’ but ‘glisters’ was the word for ‘glitters’ in the 17th century, so the saying has held while the English language has evolved.

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All the charts were made by using Metatrader 5 with free indicators from CodeBase.

US Dollar Forecast – Dollar Traders Uneasy Over Federal Reserve’s Market Impact Post-ECB
What was once a straightforward interpretation of monetary policy’s impact on exchange rates and capital markets is now a source of confusion and abject volatility.

British Pound Forecast – British Pound Rally Unlikely to Last for this Key Reason
The British Pound showed further signs of life as it rallied for a second-consecutive week against major FX counterparts.

Japanese Yen Forecast – Will Kuroda and BoJ Respond In Kind to Draghi’s Shock & Awe?
The Japanese Yen finished last week lower against the majority of G10 FX as traders react to ECB & anticipate the BoJ & Fed this week.

Canadian Dollar Forecast - Inflation in Spotlight After CAD Extends Run for 8th Straight Week
This week served as the 8th consecutive week of gains in the Canadian Dollar against its US counterpart.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar May Turn Lower on FOMC Outcome, Jobs Data
The Australian Dollar may turn lower after hitting an 11-month high as the FOMC policy announcement drives risk aversion while home-grown jobs data disappoints.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast – NZD/USD Outlook Mired by Slowing New Zealand GDP, Upbeat FOMC
NZD/USD struggled to hold its ground after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly reduced the official cash rate by 25bp to 2.25% at the March 10 meeting, and the New Zealand dollar stands at risk of facing further losses over the coming week should the key data prints coming out of the region fuel speculation for additional monetary support.

Chinese Yuan (CNH) Forecast – Yuan Outlook Awaiting Bank of Japan, FOMC
Both the offshore (CNH) and onshore Yuan (CNY) rates gained against the US Dollar on Friday as China’s Central Bank set the daily reference rate to the highest level this year at 6.4905. The move in Yuan’s daily fixing reflects euro strength and dollar weakness following the ECB’s rate decision and Draghi’s speech.

Gold Forecast – Gold to Shine on Downbeat FOMC; Dot-Plot Remains Key
Gold prices were traded lower this week with the precious metal off just 0.70% to trade at 1293 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast – Dollar Tumbles Third Straight Week, Is the Long-Term Bull Trend Over?
For data, the coming week is light for influence. Another round of Fed speakers will be on deck with the most influence for rate speculation.

Euro Forecast - Did Draghi Finally Find a Recipe For Strength?
For next week, we adopt a bullish stance on the Euro as positioning remains stretched to the down-side while prices have continued to rise, and this most recent move from the ECB will likely continue to bring strength into the European banking sector which can certainly drive additional capital flows into Europe, the Euro and European Banks. As a supplemental factor, it would appear that Central Banks are trying to avoid ‘beggar thy neighbor,’ weakness-based regimes.

British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD Rebound to Accelerate on Sticky UK CPI, Shift in FX Sentiment
At the same time, the recent weakness in the greenback may contribute to a further appreciation in GBP/USD as the Federal Reserve cuts its growth and inflation forecast, with central bank officials laying out a more gradual path for future interest rates. Even though the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment,’ Fed Chair Janet Yellen may further tame interest-rate expectations and endorse a wait-and-see approach for most of 2016 as the central bank continues to monitor the external risks surrounding the region. As a result, the dollar stands at risk of facing additional headwinds over the near to medium-term as market participants scale back bets for higher borrowing-costs this year.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar May Correct Lower After Hitting 9-Month High
Looking ahead, a lull in high-profile event risk on the domestic and the external fronts offers prices the opportunity to consolidate recent volatility. The upcoming week will also be shortened by closures for the Good Friday holiday across most major exchanges. This is likely to bring ebbing liquidity in the second part of the week. While thin trading conditions may make for even more restrained activity, it could likewise amplify kneejerk price swings in the event that an unexpected headline of significance crosses the wires. With that in mind, traders may look to trim exposure ahead of the drain in the first part of the week. This could bring an unwinding of long-AUD bets, driving a retracement downward.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast – NZD/USD Hits 2016 Highs As Fed Backs Off Aggressive Hike Path
Considering the upcoming data, NZD/USD may continue to advance into the December high (0.6882), and the key developments coming out of New Zealand’s construction, retail spending and business services could make up for the drop in Dairy exports. If the New Zealand economy remains stable at the same time that the U.S. Dollar goes without a bid, we could soon move closer to 0.7000.

Gold Forecast – Gold Rally Capped Post FOMC- Bullish Invalidation 1194
From a technical standpoint, gold is trading at some tricky levels as the pair struggles to solidify a break above a parallel extending off the 2015 October high as momentum continues to hold below the 70-threshold. The risk remains for a pullback in price with interim support eyed at 1246/50 backed by soft support at 1225 & our bullish invalidation level at 1194. We’ll be looking for move lower towards these levels to offer favorable long-entries with a breach of the highs targeting the 2015 high-week close backed at 1294 closely by the 2015 high-day close at 1301. Subsequent topside targets are eyed at the 2014 high week reversal close at 1293.

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British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD to Face Relief Rally on Upbeat U.K. PMI, Dovish Fed Rhetoric
With second-tier data on tap for the week ahead, the British Pound may continue to consolidate ahead of the next Bank of England (BoE) interest-rate decision on April 14, but fresh rhetoric from Fed officials may generate a near-term rebound in GBP/USD as Chair Janet Yellen endorses a more dovish outlook for monetary policy.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Japanese Yen Strength is its Own Undoing – Watch for Weakness
The Japanese Yen finished the week higher versus the fast-falling US Dollar, but key disappointments in domestic economic data and Nikkei 225 losses kept the JPY lower against other major FX counterparts.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar May Overlook RBA, Focus on Fed Meeting Minutes
The Australian Dollar may overlook a status-quo policy announcement from the RBA as the spotlight continues to be dominated by Fed rate hike speculation.

Canadian Dollar Forecast - Canadian Dollar Breaks Away From G10 Data Disappointment Trend
This range represents a fall of ~12.5% on the pair, and a lot of the move can be contributed to the support provided by the Bank of Canada as well as Canadian economic data like inflation.

Gold Forecast – Gold to Remain Supported on Dovish Fed- Bullish Invalidation 1193
Gold prices traded higher this week, with the precious metal advancing 0.58% to trade at 1256 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast – Dollar Seeks Guidance from Fed Speculation, Risk Trends, ECB and Oil
There can be disadvantages to being the world’s most liquid currency. The Dollar’s intrinsic integration into the global financial system makes it particularly vulnerable when its fundamental health is shaken and the world is in a state of flux.

British Pound Forecast – Little Relief Ahead for G10 FX’s Weakest Currency, the British Pound
We’re less than 70 days away from the historic ‘Brexit’ vote on June 23, and preference remains that a status quo ‘Remain’ vote will win out.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Awaiting the Bank of Japan’s Next Move
Matters just haven’t been the same for the Japanese Yen since the BoJ’s surprise move to negative rates at their January meeting.

Chinese Yuan (CNH) Forecast – Yuan at Risk on Further PBOC RRR Cuts
This week the onshore Yuan (CNH) extended losses against the US Dollar from the last week, while the onshore Yuan (CNY) closed at a slightly higher value.

Gold Forecast – Gold Swings Down to Set Higher Low – Key Support 1211
Gold prices pulled back to mark the first weekly loss in three with the precious metal off 0.79% to trade at 1230 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast – Dollar Breaks Higher but Will GDP and FOMC Forecasts Sustain It?
Finally, a bit of a reprieve for the USDollar. Having found itself under moderate but persistent pressure since its recent peak at the beginning of February, the Greenback finally managed a technical feat of strength.

Japanese Yen Forecast - The Alchemy of Turning a Negative into a Positive
The Yen has put in a significant movement so far on the day, weakening against the US Dollar by as much as 2.32%; and this is the largest movement of weakness in the Yen since January 29th, when the currency weakened by 2.7% against the Greenback after the Bank of Japan had, surprisingly, made the move to negative interest rates at the January BoJ meeting.

Chinese Yuan (CNH) Forecast – Yuan Outlook Bearish on Prospect of Increased Liquidity
With a light calendar over the past week, the offshore Yuan rate (CNH) extended losses against the US Dollar for the third consecutive week, testing a key support level at the 38.2% retracement level of the January decline.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - China's Commodity Hunger & Weak USD Support New Zealand
The New Zealand Dollar hit 2016 highs this week as the commodity train continued to roll on the back ofan increasingChina Demand. Unfortunately, spot NZD/USD ended the week on a soft note after falling for three straight days.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Aussie Dollar Eyes Volatile Week on CPI, FOMC and Earnings Flow
The Australian Dollar looks ahead to a volatile week as CPI data shapes RBA policy bets while the FOMC policy announcement and Q1 earnings outcomes drive risk sentiment.

Gold Forecast – Gold Price Consolidates – Will FOMC Deliver a Break?
Gold prices continue to consolidate the gains from the beginning of the year as the yellow metal has traded sideways for 10 weeks.

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US Dollar Forecast – Dollar Struggles as Rate Disbelief Lingers, Euro and Yen Gain Ground
The Dollar dove to end this past week at its lowest level in 11 months. The extension of the currency’s slide from its 13-year high set back in late January (now down over 4.5 percent) was fueled by a distinct loss of traction in rate forecasts.

Euro Forecast - EUR/USD Showing Strength, But Data Still a Mixed Bag
The Euro just capped off a fairly strong week, rising against every major currency not named the Yen; but that had its own story behind it.

British Pound Forecast - GBP/USD to Face Larger Advance on Lackluster Fed Rhetoric
The slew of fundamental developments coming out of the U.S. economy may play a larger role in driving GBP/USD volatility especially as the U.K. docket remains fairly light for the first full week of May.

Chinese Yuan (CNH) Forecast – Yuan at High Risk amid Liquidity, Econ Data and Commodity Volatility
Both the onshore (CNY) and offshore Yuan (CNH) closed at a slightly higher levels against the US Dollar on Friday, following the biggest move in Yuan’s daily reference rate set by China’s Central Bank in over 10 years.

Canadian Dollar Forecast - Canadian Dollar Retains Upside Risk on Consistent Data Beats
A perfect storm has developed for Canadian Dollar bears. In addition to Oil having risen ~70% from the February 11 low and the US Dollar falling to levels not seen since June, the Canadian economy continues to outperform rivals in terms of economic new releases relative to economists’ expectations.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar Volatility to Continue on RBA, US Jobs Data
The Australian Dollar looks set for another week of breakneck volatility as another round of high-profile event risk comes across the wires.

Gold Forecast – Gold Price Surges to Largest Weekly Gain in 11 Weeks
Gold prices surged to the largest weekly gain of the past 11 weeks on the heels of the Fed doing nothing.

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