Technical Forecasts

US Dollar Fails to Rally on Great Payrolls Data, Remains a Sell
A sharply better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report wasn’t enough to keep the Dollar from falling versus major FX counterparts, and the Greenback looks at risk of further declines as key fundamental factors favor weakness.

Gold Posts Key Outside Reversal Post NFPs- $1307 Key Resistance
Gold prices are softer on the week with the precious metal off by 0.42% to trade at $1300 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The week was marked by continued weakness in gold prices as equities rallied into fresh record highs.

AUD/USD Threatens 92.00 Support- Need Dovish RBA for Larger Decline
The long-term outlook for the AUD/USD remains bearish as the pair carves a lower high in April, and the Australian dollar remains at risk of facing a larger decline in the week ahead should the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) adopt a more dovish tone for monetary policy.

GBP/USD Climb to New 5 Year Highs Will be Fraught With Danger
The pound has finished out an impressive month and week. Through April, the currency has advanced against all of its major counterparts.




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US Dollar Stands to Gain on Rate Forecast, Surge on Risk Trends
Having started out the period with a painful collapse, the US dollar ended this past week with a strong rally that brought it back to even.

Japanese Yen Remains a Sell Until this Changes
The Japanese Yen trades at critical resistance versus the US Dollar (USDJPY trades at support). Given extremely low volatility expectations it seems unlikely we see a major USDJPY breakdown, but any major surprises out of upcoming Japanese data could force sharp currency swings.

Gold Prices Vulnerable as USD Regains Footing – All Eyes on US CPI
Gold prices are softer for the second consecutive week with the precious metal off by nearly 1% to trade at $1287 ahead of the New York close on Friday.




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US Dollar Rally Will Stall Without a Spark
The US Dollar managed to turn a close call test of 14-month lows into an impressive rebound over the past two weeks.

Bullish USD/JPY Outlook to Deteriorate Further on Less-Dovish BoJ
The USD/JPY extended the decline from earlier this month, with the pair slipping to a fresh low of 101.30, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision may continue to undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the dollar-yen should we see a more material shift in the policy outlook.

Gold at Risk for Major Break Next Week – FOMC Policy Outlook in Focus
Gold prices are marginally higher this week with the precious metal inching up 0.18% to trade at $1291 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

British Pound at Risk Ahead of Key Data, Trades at Critical Support
The British Pound pulled back further from multi-year highs as a drop in UK yields and a broader US Dollar reversal produced the second-consecutive week of GBPUSD declines.

Aussie Dollar at Risk as US Data, FOMC Minutes Hurt Risk Trends
The Australian Dollar may fall as firm US data and an upbeat set of FOMC minutes drive speculation about the end of Fed stimulus, sparking risk aversion.






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US Dollar On the Verge of Serious Reversal – But Can it Make the Turn?
It was a week of contrasts. Through Friday’s close, the S&P 500 surged to a record high. Yet, at the same time as this ‘risk’ benchmark made its move higher, the traditional safe haven US Dollar strong-armed a bullish reversal.

USD/JPY Bearish Setup to Take Shape on Japan CPI, Dismal U.S. 1Q GDP
The USD/JPY pared the decline following the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision, with the pair working its way back towards former support (101.80-102.00), but the economic developments due out next week may instill a more bearish outlook for the dollar-yen should the data prints spark a greater deviation in the policy outlook.

Gold Breakout Imminent – Will US GDP Be the Trigger?
Gold prices are virtually unchanged on the week with prices off by a mere 0.1% to trade at $1291 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

Australia Dollar Vulnerable to Deeper Losses on Fed Policy Bets
The Australian Dollar is expected to continue lower after dropping the most in four months last week as markets come to terms with the looming end of Fed QE



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US Dollar Rally at Clear Risk as Key Events May Disappoint
The US Dollar rally showed signs of slowing as the DJ FXCM Dollar Index failed to hold multi-month highs. Traders look to a critical European Central Bank decision and US Nonfarm Payrolls report to decide direction in Dollar pairs through the week ahead.

Traders Betting Big on Euro Losses, but Caution Warranted Ahead
The Euro showed signs of life as it bounced off of fresh multi-month lows and ended a three-week losing streak. Yet traders await a critical European Central Bank interest rate decision to drive volatility in the week ahead.

GBP/USD Carves High Low in May – BoE Dissent Favors Bullish Outlook
The GBP/USD looks poised to resume the bullish trend carried over from the previous year as the Bank of England (BoE) shows a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

Australian Dollar to Look Past RBA, Focus on Key US Data
On the domestic front, the spotlight is on a policy announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The central bank is expected to keep the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 2.50 percent.

Gold Fun Points to New Lows in June – Bearish Sub 1270
Gold prices are virtually unchanged on the week with prices off by a mere 0.1% to trade at $1291 ahead of the New York close on Friday.




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Japanese Yen to Eyes Range Support on Less-Dovish BoJ
The USD/JPY may continue to consolidate in the week ahead as it retains the wedge/triangle formation from earlier this year, but the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision may heighten the appeal of the Yen.

British Pound at Important Risk of Reversal Ahead of Key Data
The British Pound finished the week almost exactly where it began, but key UK employment data releases on the calendar promise bigger moves in the week ahead.

Gold Bounces Off Range Low Post ECB/NFP- Bearish Sub $1270
Heading into next week, traders will be eyeing data out of the US with retail sales and the preliminary June University of Michigan confidence surveys looking to keep gold rising.

Australian Dollar at Risk as US Data Bolsters Fed Policy Outlook
The Australian Dollar is vulnerable to renewed selling pressure as firming Fed policy bets undermine the currency’s yield advantage and feed risk aversion.





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Article summary: The Dollar continues to trade in a tight range versus the Euro and other counterparts, but a highly-anticipated Fed meeting could spark big moves in USD pairs.

Euro Continues to Offer Range Trading Opportunities
The Euro finished near four-month lows versus the Dollar, but the lack of volatility in recent markets makes it unlikely it breaks significantly lower. We’re watching key event risk for a potential breakdown.

GBP/USD Breaks Out; Eyes Higher-High on BoE Dissent
The Japanese Yen gained ground ahead of the The Sterling may continue to carve a series of higher-highs & higher-lows during the summer months amid the ongoing shift in outlook for the Bank of England.

Australian Dollar May Stumble on Dovish RBA Minutes, Upbeat FOMC
High-profile event risk on the domestic and the external fronts in the week ahead threatens to undermine the recent Australian Dollar rally.

Gold Rally at Risk Heading into FOMC- 1277 Resistance
Building geopolitical tensions in Iraq and Ukraine have offered some much needed support to gold prices which had fallen more than 10% off the March high.

Use the DailyFX-Plus Technical Analyzer to identify possible trade setups.




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Article summary: Widening divergences in interest rate forecasts and the reality that volatility cannot continue to tread levels this low for much longer has traders on edge and looking for opportunity.

US Dollar Will Settle for Euro As Recovery Driver in Absence of Volatility
The most effective means for leveraging a significant rally from the US Dollar is for a shock to resonate through the global financial system. Yet, hoping for volatility is just that – hope.

GBP/USD to Eye Fresh Highs on Hawkish BoE Testimony; 1.7100+ on Tap?
British Pound rallies may gather pace as a growing number of Bank of England officials show a greater willingness to normalize policy sooner than later.

Japanese Yen Looks Primed to Move. When, Where, and How?
The Japanese Yen remains locked in a tight trading range versus the US Dollar. A breakout seems inevitable, but when, where, and how?

Gold Rallies Through Key Resistance Post FOMC- Bullish Above $1286
A gold price surge comes amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a dovish tone from the FOMC. Does this change broader outlook for gold? The answer is simply “yes”.

Australian Dollar at Risk as Markets Rethink Post-FOMC Reaction
A reversal of the risk-positive response to the FOMC decision this past week may set AUDUSD up for a change in bearing moving forward.




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US Dollar: NFPs Versus Fading Volatility
Hope is high amongst traders that the low volatility environment that has forced many to change to a short-term approach or stay sidelined for near-perfect setups will end soon. Volatility is a critical ingredient to the dollar’s performance moving forward.

Japanese Yen Shows Signs of Life, but May be Good Time to Sell
The Japanese Yen showed signs of life as it posted its largest weekly gain versus the US Dollar in two months. But will the coming week produce the long-awaited breakout?

GBP/USD Poised for Higher Highs & Lows in July Amid Policy Disparity
The GBP/USD held within the previous week’s range as the Bank of England (BoE) laid out new measures to stem the risk for an asset-bubble, but the bullish sentiment surrounding the British Pound may gather pace throughout the second-half of the year as the central bank shows a greater willingness to start normalizing monetary policy sooner rather than later.

Australian Dollar May Correct Lower on Eroding Yield Advantage
Domestic policy returns to focus for the Australian Dollar in the week ahead as all eyes turn to the RBA interest rate decision. Economists’ expectations suggest Governor Glenn Stevens and company will leave the baseline lending rate unchanged yet again.




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US Dollar Fails to Break Despite Stellar NFPs. Where are the Trades?
The Dollar tumbled to fresh yearly lows through the past week, but a late week reversal actually left the Dollar Index higher on the week. Is this the start of a more significant Dollar reversal?

Exogenous Threat to Euro Exists as ECB Policy Diverges from BoE, Fed
The ECB’s ‘lower for longer’ stance is prohibitive for the Euro because the British Pound and the US Dollar are being bombarded with strong economic data and rising sovereign yields as a result, as market participants start to price in interest rate hikes from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, respectively.

Bullish GBP/USD Outlook Remains Favorable Going into BoE Meeting
The Bullish sentiment surrounding the British Pound should continue to gather pace through the second half of 2014 as the Bank of England looks to raise rates sooner than later. What are the risks?

AUD Faces Bumpy Week On Local Data Amid Waning Carry Appeal
The Australian Dollarmay be set for another turbulent week on a wealth of domestic economic data, while traders question the appeal of the Aussie carry trade.




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