Technical Forecasts

Dollar Bull Run Longest on Record after Fed Updates Rate Outlook
As lackluster as the volatility and sentiment reaction was to last week’s FOMC decision, the event sustained the Dollar’s incredible run. Now on a 10-week bullish binge, this is the most enduring greenback run on record.

Euro at Potentially Significant Turning Point
The Euro tumbled to fresh lows versus the high-flying US Dollar on a week of bad news for Europe and much better developments out of the US. But why might the Euro/Dollar exchange rate be at risk of an important bounce?

Japanese Yen May Rebound as Risk Aversion Sweeps Financial Markets
The markets navigated through a treacherous succession of high-profile event risk over the past two weeks, leaving investors with much to digest. Investors will have just such an opportunity in the week ahead as a lull in news-flow allows for a period of reflection.

GBP/USD Risks Larger Rebound on Fed Doves; Higher-Lows in Focus
The GBP/USD fell back from a fresh weekly high of 1.6523 even as Scotland voted to stay within the U.K., but fresh commentary coming out of the Federal Reserve may spur a further advance in the exchange rate should the group of central bank doves talk down interest rate expectations.

Fed Sends Gold Sharply Lower- Death Cross Warns of Further Losses
Gold prices are softer this week with the precious metal off by 1.13% to trade at $1215 ahead of the New York close on Friday.





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US Dollar Forecast - Dollar Looks to Close Out Best Quarter Since Great Financial Crisis
We are only a few days from the close of the US Dollar’s best quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2008 – at the height of the financial crisis.

British Pound Forecast - British Pound Goes Back to Basics – Yields Point to GBP Strength
The British Pound traded higher versus all G10 counterparts save the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. Why might it continue higher through the foreseeable future?

Australian Dollar Forecast -AUD Eyes 2014 Low As Yield Appeal Wanes Amid Volatility Swell
The Australian Dollar faced another week of heavy selling pressure as traders likely unwound carry trades amid of a surge in market volatility.

Gold Forecast- Gold Down 5% in September- $1206 Support in Focus Ahead of ECB, NFPs
Gold prices are virtually unchanged this week with the precious metal off just a fraction of a percentage point to trade at $1213 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast - Dollar’s Rally Has Grown Even More Extreme
The Dollar’s rally grows more remarkable with each week…at the same time that it grows more difficult to believe.There is no denying its bullish bearing.

British Pound Forecast - British Pound Selling to Continue on Static BOE, Hawkish FOMC Minutes
The British Pound is vulnerable to continued selling as a status-quo BOE policy announcement and hawkish FOMC minutes erode the UK unit’s yield appeal.

Japanese Yen Forecast – Japanese Yen Likely to Correct Sharply Higher, but When?
The Japanese Yen fell to fresh post-financial crisis lows versus the surging US Dollar, but a clear slowdown the USDJPY rally warns that it’s near an end.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - NZD/USD Holds September Low Ahead of China PMI’s, Fed Doves
The medium-term outlook for the NZD/USD remains bearish as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) sticks to a neutral policy stance and retains the verbal intervention on the New Zealand dollar, but the pair may face a larger correction in the days ahead should the fresh back of central bank rhetoric coming out of the Federal Reserve drag on interest rate expectations.

Australian Dollar Forecast - AUD Hangs Hopes On US Dollar Exhaustion Amid Status-Quo RBA Bets
The Australian Dollar faces an uninspiring fundamental backdrop over the coming week, which leaves recovery hopes to hang on weakness for its US namesake.

Gold Forecast - Gold Eyes 2013 Lows Post NFPs- Fed Minutes in Focus
Gold prices are markedly lower this week with the precious metal off by more than 2.1% to trade at $1191 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast- Dollar’s Rally May Be Just Starting if Risk Aversion Ignites this Week
The Dollar finally took a breather this past week. After 12 consecutive weeks of climb, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar (ticker = USDollar) fell 0.7 percent.

Japanese Yen Forecast – Don’t Sleep on the Japanese Yen - Big Things on the Horizon
The Japanese Yen surged versus all major counterparts as the US S&P 500 saw its worst weekly decline in over two years. There’s little economic event risk out of Japan in the week ahead, but we think big things stand on the horizon for JPY pairs.

British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD to Eye 1.5900 on Slowing U.K. Consumer Price Inflation
The GBP/USD may continue to carve lower-highs & lows in the week ahead should the fundamental developments coming out of the U.K. economy further dampen interest rate expectations.

Australian Dollar Forecast – AUD To Remain Heavy As Elevated Volatility Limits Scope For A Recovery
The Australian Dollar faces another week of uninspiring economic data as heightened volatility expectations threaten to keep pressure on the high-yielding currency.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast- New Zealand Dollar at the Mercy of Market-Wide Sentiment Trends
A quiet economic calendar on the domestic front is likely to see the New Zealand Dollar price action fall in with broad-based risk appetite trends in the week ahead.

Gold Forecast - Gold Eyes 1240 as Fed Takes a Dovish Shift
Gold prices are markedly higher this week with the precious metal rallying more than 2.5% to trade at $1221 ahead of the New York close on Friday.





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US Dollar Forecast- Dollar and the Markets Contemplate Volatility and QE
Amid extreme financial market volatility swings and talk of US stimulus plans, the US Dollar finished out a second consecutive week in the red.

Japanese Yen Forecast – Japanese Yen To Extend Gains on Global Slowdown, Fed Tightening Fears
A lull in homegrown event risk will keep macro-level trends in focus for the Japanese Yen in the week ahead

British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD Rebound Vulnerable to Dovish BoE Minutes, Slowing 3Q U.K. GDP
The British Pound may face additional headwinds in the week ahead should the fundamental developments coming out of the U.K. drag on interest rate expectations.

Australian Dollar Forecast – AUD Faces Further Swings On Market Jitters, Q3 Inflation, & China GDP
The Aussie may be in store for another wild week with shifts in general market sentiment, local CPI figures and top-tier Chinese data to offer the currency guidance.

Gold Forecast - Gold Rally at Risk Amid Sticky US Inflation- $1222 Key Support
Gold prices pushed higher for a second consecutive week with the precious metal rallying 1.27% to trade at $1238 ahead of the New York close on Friday.





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US Dollar Forecast- Dollar and Market Confidence Ride on FOMC Decision
The US Dollar managed to muscle out a modest advance this past week despite favorable winds for investor sentiment (through benchmarks like S&P 500 and volatility indexes) as well as a persistent dovishness in rate forecasts.

Japanese Yen Forecast – USD/JPY to Eye Fresh Highs on Less-Dovish FOMC, More BOJ Easing
The fundamental outlook for USD/JPY remains bullish as Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) moves away from its easing cycle, but the dollar-yen may struggle to press fresh highs next week should the Bank of Japan (BoJ) refrain from further expanding its asset-purchase program.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - New Zealand Dollar at Risk on Dovish RBNZ, Status-Quo FOMC
The New Zealand Dollar may fall if the RBNZ withdraws its promise of future rate hikes while a status-quo FOMC statement sees Fed tightening bets rebuild.

Australian Dollar Forecast – AUD Faces A Potential “Breakout” On US Heavy Event Risk
The Aussie may remain under pressure over the coming week as elevated volatility caps carry demand, while US-centric event risk offers potential “breakout” catalysts.

Gold Forecast - Gold Losses to Accelerate on Less Dovish FOMC- Support Break Eyes 1206
Gold prices are softer this week with the precious metal off by 0.55% to trade at $1231 ahead of the New York close on Friday.





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US Dollar Forecast- Usd Aiming Higher as Upbeat Jobs Data Fuels Fed Hike Bets
US Dollar looks poised to continue to advance for a third week as upbeat payrolls data fuels speculation that a Fed interest rate hike will arrive sooner rather than later.

Great British Pound Forecast - British Pound Holds on by a Thread- What to Watch in Week Ahead
The British pound finished the week notably lower versus the resurgent US Dollar, but a busy week of economic event risk ahead suggests the GBP/USD may see big moves and could very well stage a reversal.

Australian Dollar Forecast – AUD Poised For Intraday Volatility On Torrent Of Top-Tier Data
The Aussie is bracing for a medley of economic releases that may catalyze intraday swings, yet scope for follow-through may be limited amid steadfast RBA bets.

Gold Forecast - Gold Plummets to 4-Year Lows as Fed Ends QE- $1206 Resistance
Gold prices plummeted this week with the precious metal off by more than 5.2% to trade at $1166 ahead of the New York close on Friday.





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US Dollar Forecast- Dollar Climbs to Five Year High as Yields and FX Volatility Rebound
Many of the ‘majors’ pushed multi-month or year extremes in favor of the Greenback, and the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) powered to a five-year high this past week.

British Pound Forecast - GBP/USD to Face Further Losses on Dovish BoE Inflation Report
GBP/USD may face increased volatility next week as U.K. wage growth is projected to uptick in September, while the Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to retain a cautious outlook for the region.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Japanese Yen Eyes Global Growth Trends as Dust Settles on BOJ Action
The Japanese Yen may recover from six-year lows as global slowdown fears fuel risk aversion, triggering liquidation of carry trades funded in the low-yielding unit.

Australian Dollar Forecast – AUD Remains At Risk After Breaching Key Barrier Amid Volatility Spike
The AUD may be exposed to further weakness following a crash through key support as surging expectations for FX market volatility detract from its yield appeal.

Gold Forecast - Gold Posts Outside Reversal- NFP Rebound Mired by Growth Concerns
Gold prices were softer this week with the precious metal off by a mere 0.10% to trade at $1171 ahead of the New York close on Friday.



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US Dollar Forecast– Dollar May Not Have a Quiet Thanksgiving...
From a fundamental perspective, the Dollar’s interest rate backdrop seems to be mired in debate over the timing of the inevitable first hike.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Yen Looks Past Japan Recession and Election Risk, Sentiment Trends Key
The Japanese Yen may rise as markets look past the onset of recession and looming general election risk to focus on the trajectory of sentiment trends.

British Pound Forecast - GBP/USD to Break Out on Less-Dovish BoE, Weak U.S. 3Q GDP
GBP/USD may face a more meaningful rebound in the week ahead as the Bank of England (BoE) highlights the risk of overshooting the 2% target for inflation, while the Federal Reserve remains reluctant to move away from its zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).

Australian Dollar Forecast – AUD To Look Past Local Data Yet Remains At Risk On Elevated Volatility
The Aussie is in for another suspenseful week near its 2014 low as elevated volatility expectations threaten to keep pressure on the high-yielding currency.

Gold Forecast -Gold Rallies on PBOC, ECB Surprise Easing -1207 Key Resistance
Gold prices are higher for a third consecutive week with the yellow metal rallying 0.8% to trade at $1197 ahead of the New York close on Friday.






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US Dollar Forecast– Dollar Ready to Take Advantage of Market Unease But Rates at Risk
Like the US equities, the US Dollar reached to for a fresh high to close out this past week.

Japanese Yen Forecast – Yen May Turn as US Data Outcomes Amplify Year-End Capital Flows
The Japanese Yen may rebound from six-year lows as US economic data outcomes fuel Fed rate hike bets, amplifying risk aversion triggered by year-end capital flows.

British Pound Forecast – British Pound Looks to Key Data as it Nears Significant Low
The British Pound finished lower for the sixth-consecutive trading week versus the US Dollar, and a busy week of economic event risk ahead points to GBP volatility and potential losses.

Australian Dollar Forecast – AUD Exposed To Further Declines As Yield Advantage Erodes
The Australian Dollar plunged to a fresh 2014 low against its US counterpart during the week as volatility levels rose and its yield advantage detiorated.





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