Technical Forecasts

US Dollar Forecast– Dollar Faces Speculation, Risk Trends, Central Bank Moves
The Dollar received a jolt of volatility this past week in a rally that followed the CPI inflation report, but the currency was unable to escape the bounds of a month-long range.

Japanese Yen Forecast – US Dollar Likely to Reverse versus Japanese Yen in Week Ahead
The Japanese Yen traded lower versus the US Dollar for the third week in four and left the USDJPY exchange rate near the key ¥120 level. Why might the week ahead finally bring a major breakout?

British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD Stalls at Key Juncture – Outlook Hinges on BoE, NFP
The Bank of England’s (BoE) March 5 interest rate decision may have a limited impact on GBP/USD as the central bank is widely anticipated to retain its current policy, but the fundamental developments coming out of the U.K. may continue to boost the appeal of the sterling should the data prints highlight an improved outlook for growth and inflation.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Looks to RBA Rate Decision to Break Deadlock
The Australian Dollar is looking to the RBA monetary policy announcement to break prices out of congestion following four weeks of deadlock.

Gold Forecast – Gold 1195 Support Remains Paramount Ahead of March Opening Range, NFP
Gold prices snapped a four week losing streak with the precious metal rallying 1.27% to trade at $1216 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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The DAX as you can see broke higher during the course of the week, closing at the very top of the range for that candle. With that being the case, looks like the market should continue to go higher, but at this point time we feel that the market is a little overbought. We would like to see some type of pullback in order to start going long again, and feel a little bit apprehensive of going long at this point, as pullbacks should offer value in one of the most trusted markets.



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The NASDAQ as you can see broke out to the upside during the week, but turned back around to form a little bit of a shooting star. We are just below the 5000 handle, and that of course can be a psychological barrier. If we break down below the bottom of the shooting star, we could see quite a bit of support below. The 4800 level was previously resistive, so it should now be supportive. If we find supportive candles below, we would be willing to buy this market as it should build up enough momentum to break out above that area.



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Gold markets initially fell during the course of the week, but bounced as the $1200 level below offered enough support. With that being the case, the market looks as if there is plenty of support in that area, based upon the horizontal support, as well as the uptrend line. The hammer of course looks very positive, so we can break above the top of the hammer we are buyers but recognize that the $1240 level above probably causes a bit of a headache for the buyers. After that though, we feel that the market ultimately goes to the $1500 level after that.



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The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the week, but slammed into the 120 level to find resistance. With that, we believe the pullbacks continue to offer value as the market should go higher due to the long-term uptrend. With that being the case, we are bullish and have no interest whatsoever in selling this market. We believe that the 115 level is massively supportive, and essentially the “floor” in this marketplace. We do believe ultimately that the uptrend continues going forward, heading to the 125 handle.



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The USD/CAD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, forming a fairly neutral candle. Because of this, we feel that this market should continue to go back and forth in this general vicinity but we were also looking at this chart in thinking that perhaps we could break down and head to the 1.20 and a. If we do, we would love to buy a supportive candle at that area as it is essentially the “floor” in this market. If we break above the 1.27 level, we would be buyers there as well. We don’t really have any interest in selling.



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The New Zealand dollar initially fell against the US dollar during the week, but as you can see found enough support below the 0.75 level to bounce and form a nice-looking hammer. However, if you can imagine this market going above the top of the hammer, it’s difficult to start buying this market at that point anyway. There is a massive amount of resistance all the way to the 0.80 level. With that, we have no interest in buying this market but would sell on a break down below the bottom of the hammer for the week.



the source

The GBP/USD pair initially tried to break out during the course of the week, but found quite a bit of resistance above the 1.55 handle. This is the top of what we recognize as the potential consolidation area in this general vicinity, and as a result we believe that the market is getting ready to go lower. If we break down lower, and clear the bottom of the range from the week, we believe that this market should then head to the 1.53 level next, and then possibly the 1.50 handle. This isn’t much of a surprise though, because of the large, round, psychologically significant number such as this one is. There is a significant amount of resistance all the way to the 1.58 handle, so as a result even if we break above the top of the shooting star, we believe that this market still cannot be bought until we clear the 1.58 level.

We believe that this market will continue to bang around between the 1.55 handle and the 1.50 level. Because of this, we feel that the market is one that will be difficult to hang onto for the longer term, but if you are patient enough and can deal with the volatility, I believe that this market could offer quite a bit in the way of profit. Even if we break above the top of the shooting star, it’s only a matter time before we form another resistive candle as far as we can tell.

If we do break above the 1.58 handle, the more likely pattern will then be to the 1.60 level. At that level we would anticipate quite a bit of resistance as well, so really this point in time we don’t have any interest in buying this pair. The US dollar continues to be the favored currency by most traders, so of course it will be in this particular pair as well. Whether or not we can get down below the 1.50 level is a completely different question, so we aren’t even addressing that at this point.



the source

The EUR/USD pair fell hard during the course of the week, closing towards the bottom of the range. That being the case, looks as if the EUR/USD pair will probably fall from there, heading to the 1.11 handle next, and then the 1.10 level. Any rally this point time should be a nice selling opportunity and we believe that the 1.15 level is massively resistive. We like rallies the show signs of resistance, as it offers value in the US dollar. If we break down below the 1.10 level, this market could very well fall to the parity level next.



the source

US Dollar Forecast – Dollar Exhibits Speculative Frenzy Before FOMC Offers Rate Timetable
The day of reckoning is almost upon us. This Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will deliver its forecasts for economic trends and interest rates.

Japanese Yen Forecast – USD/JPY to Take Cues From FOMC as BoJ Endore Wait-and-See Approach
The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) March 18 meeting may overshadow the fresh commentary coming out of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and heavily influence the near-term outlook for USD/JPY as Chair Janet Yellen and Co.

British Pound Forecast – British Pound Volatility Near-Guaranteed – Which Way Will it Break?
The British Pound tumbled to fresh five-year lows versus the high-flying US Dollar as traders repriced UK interest rate prospectives.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast – New Zealand Dollar Looks to 4Q GDP, FOMC Outcome for Direction
The New Zealand Dollar is looking to fourth-quarter GDP figures and the outcome of the FOMC monetary policy meeting to establish direction cues.

Gold Forecast – Gold Halts After 9 Days Down – Prices at Key Support Ahead of FOMC
Gold prices are off for a second consecutive week as the commodity rout continued with the precious metal off by more than 1% to trade at 1155 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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