Technical Forecasts

US Dollar Forecast – A Risk Response is Clear, But How Does the Dollar React to Election?
There is little doubt that the US Presidential Election next week is the global market’s top event risk. The implications for risk trends is clear with the longest slide for the benchmark S&P 500 in 36 years (9-day) through Friday.

Euro Forecast - Let's Not Pretend Otherwise: Only One Thing Matters for EUR/USD This Week
EUR/USD has been moving steadily higher, but it has nothing to do with improved European economic data, higher inflation expectations, or receding Fed rate hike expectations. Instead, the only legitimate reason one can point to EUR/USD’s rally – and the decline in the US Dollar generally – is the risking political risk premium thanks to US elections.

Japanese Yen Forecast - The New, Gentler Bank of Japan
The Bank of Japan has become known as having a penchant for surprises. On the night of Halloween in 2014, the bank announced that a portion of their QE efforts would be directed towards stock purchases via ETF’s (both domestic Japanese issues as well as international ETF’s), and this caught pretty much the entire world by surprise.

British Pound Forecast - British Pound Shows Signs of Life - Watch for Further Volatility
The British Pound surged on huge week for ongoing “Brexit” negotiations and a surprise shift in Bank of England interest rate policy.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar Locked in Limbo as US Election Looms Large
The Australian Dollar continues tread water in a narrowing range below the 0.78 figure against its US counterpart despite a seemingly ample stock of trend-defining catalysts.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - NZD: Is the RBNZ Approaching the End of its Easing-Cycle?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) last 2016 interest rate-decision on November 10 may heavily impact the near-term outlook for NZD/USD as Governor Graeme Wheeler and Co. are widely anticipated to cut the official cash rate to a fresh record-low of 1.75%.

Chinese Yuan Forecast - Yuan Bounces Likely to Be Short-lived As December Rate Hike Looms
The Chinese Yuan launched a recovery this week, after it lost against the U.S. Dollar for four consecutive weeks. The USD/CNH found resistance along the top side of a parallel extending off the August high.

Gold Forecast - Gold Prices Brace for Volatility as Election Day Looms
Gold prices are decisively higher this week with the precious metal up more than 2.2% to trade at 1303 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

more...

US Dollar Forecast - Can Dollar Extend its Best Week’s Rally in a Year Post Trump Win?
The trade-weighted ICE Dollar Index posted its strongest weekly advance in 12 months with this past Friday’s close.

British Pound Forecast - British Pound to Extend Relief Rally on Hawkish BoE Testimony
TheBritish Pound may stage a larger relief rally over the days ahead should the key developments coming out of the U.K. raise the outlook for inflation and dampen market expectations for another round of monetary support.

Canadian Dollar Forecast - Canadian Dollar Has Asymmetric Risk with Trump’s Reflationary Views
The Canadian Dollar traded as low as 1.3547 on Friday, hitting its lowest levels since March. This week brought the improbable event of the non-politician Real Estate Magnate, Donald Trumpbeing electedPresident of the United States.

Australian Dollar Forecast -Aussie Dollar at Risk as Trump Platform Feeds Fed vs. RBA Divergence
Breakneck volatility in the wake of the US presidential election may have finally set direction for the Australian Dollar after three months of aimless drift.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast- RBNZ’s Mixed Signals Bring Bearish Drive to NZD/USD
In the Post-Financial Collapse economic environment, Central Banks have taken on a key and critical role in the management of most major economies on Earth.

Chinese Yuan Forecast- Yuan Bounces Likely to Be Short-lived As December Rate Hike Looms
The Yuan resumed losses against the U.S. Dollar this week following bounces in the last week. Both the offshore and onshore Yuan have hit fresh records: the USD/CNH touched 6.8495 on Friday, setting a new all-time low for the offshore Yuan.

Gold Forecast - Gold Prices Plummet 6% as Trump Win Fuels Risk
Gold prices plummeted this week with the precious metal down more than 6.2% to trade at 1222 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The losses come on the back of a stunning victory by president-elect Donald Trump with all three major U.S. stock indices closing markedly higher as yields on 10-year Treasuries surged to levels not seen since January.

more...

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar at Risk on US Data, Trump Cabinet Appointments
The Australian Dollar may face renewed selling pressure as US data boosts Fed tightening expectations and Trump cabinet appointments continue to pour in.

British Pound Forecast – British Pound May Weaken on Profit-Taking, Year-End Flows
The British Pound may weaken amid a lull in top-tier news flow amid profit-taking following six weeks of consecutive gains and year-end portfolio readjustment.

more...

US Dollar Forecast: Has the US Dollar Rally Gone Too Far?
The US Dollar may retreat after surging to a 14-year high last week as traders mull a still-uncertain fiscal outlook at the heart of the narrative driving the currency upward.

Japanese Yen Forecast: The BoJ’s Pain has Quickly Reversed. But Will They?
The Bank of Japan and the Japanese economy have received a fairly pronounced gift after the election of Donald Trump.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Could Be Vulnerable to Holiday Blues
The Australian Dollar can probably look forward to a quieter week in the run-up to the holiday break, and battered bulls would probably welcome it after a tumultuous few sessions. That doesn’t mean the weakened Aussie currency will rise far, however and it may yet slide further.

Canadian Dollar Forecast: Canadian Dollar May Hang Tough Against a Hawkish Fed
The Canadian Dollar weakened against the USD as did the rest of G10FX when the Federal Reserve signaled a more hawkish/ steeper dot plot than expected.

Gold Forecast: Gold Tumbles as FOMC Stokes Rate Expectations- Price at Key Support
Gold prices fell for the 6thconsecutive week with the precious metal down 1.8% to trade at 1137 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

more...

US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar May Turn Defensive Anew on Cautious Fed Comments
The US Dollar found a lifeline in upbeat wage growth data having been battered by the unwinding of the “Trump trade”. Upcoming Fed-speak may put it back on the defensive.

British Pound Forecast: BOE: Economic Forecasting in a World ’Tipped Upside Down’
This week, the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Mr. Andy Haldane issued a mea culpa around the bank’s forecasts and expectations around Brexit, saying ‘it’s a fair cop to say the profession is to some degree in crisis.’

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Uptrend Should Survive Light-Data Week
The nascent Australian Dollar uptrend should remain intact through a relatively light week for scheduled economic data on both sides of the Pacific.

Chinese Yuan Forecast: USD/CNH Eyes on HIBOR, Onshore Policy
The Chinese Yuan was on a roller-coaster ride this week: the offshore CNH gained over 1% against the U.S. Dollar on both Wednesday and Thursday, and then lost -0.6% as of 11:00am EST on Friday. The offshore Yuan also traded higher than the onshore Yuan, which was uncommon.

Gold Forecast: Gold Recovery Faces First Hurdle Ahead of Fed Speak; Retail Sales
Gold prices continued to march higher for a second consecutive week with the precious metal rallying more than 3% to trade at 1176 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The advance comes amid weakness in the greenback and alongside continued gains in global equity markets.

more...

US Dollar May Fall Further as Trump Inauguration Nears
The US Dollar may continue to weaken as disillusioned traders continue to scale back exposure to the so-called “Trump trade” ahead of the nearing Presidential inauguration.

Rising U.S. CPI, Hawkish Fed Rhetoric to Tame USD/JPY Pullback
The failed run at the December high (118.66) keeps the near-term outlook for USD/JPY tilted to the downside, but the key developments coming out of the U.S. economy may prop up the exchange rate next.

GBP Clings to Support Ahead of Inflation, May’s Brexit Speech
Ever since the Brexit referendum in June, markets have volleyed the various prospects that might come from the actual execution of the split from the European Union.

Canadian Dollar Looks to Poloz for Further Strength
The Canadian Dollar has been a resilient currency at the start of the year. Much of the strength is due in part to Oil’s consistency above a long-term focal point on the chart.

Gold Weakness to be Viewed as Opportunity- US CPI on Tap
Gold prices are higher for a third consecutive week with the precious metal up 1.8% to trade at 1194 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

Yuan Eyes on China 4Q GDP, Davos Forum
This week, the offshore Yuan remained stronger than the onshore Yuan and the PBOC’s guidance. On Friday, the USD/CNY closed at 6.8984, slightly weaker than the Yuan fix set on Friday of 6.8909.

more...

US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar at Risk as Traders Cut Exposure Amid Information Vacuum
The US Dollar may decline for a third straight week as lingering fiscal policy uncertainty encourages investors to scale back net-long exposure.

British Pound Forecast - British Pound Clings to ’Flash Crash’ Range Ahead of UK/US GDP Report
GBP/USD may continue to face range-bound conditions ahead of the ‘Brexit’ deadline as Prime Minister Theresa May pushes for a clean break from the European Union (EU), but the bearish sentiment surrounding the British Pound may subside over the near-term as the Bank of England (BoE) changes its tune for monetary policy.

Gold Forecast - Gold Off Key Resistance- Trump, US GDP to Determine Depth of Correction
Gold prices marched higher for a fourth consecutive week with the precious metal up 0.86% to trade at 1207 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

Oil Forecast - US Rig Count Jumps Most Week-on-Week Since Q2 2013, Yet Oil Supported
Oil Traders could have taken the first three weeks of the trading year off given the lack of volatility, but for multiple reasons, we do not expect this quiet price action to continue.

more...

US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar Still in Trump Watch Mode as FOMC, Key Data Loom
The US Dollar might have been encouraged to rise by supportive data flow and an optimistic Fed but lingering fiscal policy uncertainty severely complicates things.

British Pound Forecast:GBP/USD to Take Cues From FOMC/BoE Interest Rate Outlook
The Bank of England’s (BoE) ‘Super Thursday’ event may shake up the near-term outlook for GBP/USD should Governor Mark Carney and Co. show a greater willingness to gradually move away from its easing-cycle.

Japanese Yen Forecast: How Much Confidence Does the BoJ Have in the Trump Trade?
Next week brings the Bank of Japan to global markets, and while little by way of ‘new information’ is expected, the context with which the bank is communicating to markets makes for an extremely interesting opportunity to gauge what the BoJ might be looking to do in the remainder of the year.

Canadian Dollar Forecast: Canada May Win the Trump Trade Game At Other’s Expense
The Canadian Dollar has almost completely retraced the jawboning on January 18 from BoC Governor, Stephen Poloz against the US Dollar.

Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Faces Major Event Risks Despite Holiday
China will release the Caixin PMI manufacturing print for January on Thursday, which is expected to drop slightly to 51.8 from 51.9, yet still in the expansion territory.

Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Post First 2017 Weekly Loss- Fed, NFP to Challenge Support
Gold prices snapped a month long winning streak this week with the precious metal down 1.78% to trade at 1188 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The pullback marks the first down week for gold this year and heading into the close of January trade, the focus shifts to key event risk on tap next week.

more...

US Dollar Forecast: FOMC Fails to Re-Fire the Dollar Drive; but the Attention is on Trump
This week saw a heavy inclusion of U.S. drivers, which was somewhat to be expected for a week that had both the FOMC and Non-Farm Payrolls on the calendar.

Japanese Yen Forecast: Japanese Yen Volatility Ahead as the BOJ, Financial Markets Clash
Japanese Yen price action is likely to become increasingly erratic and volatile as financial markets test the Bank of Japan’s resolve to stick with its policy platform.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Might Find Itself Stuck
The Australian Dollar is certainly underpinned, not least by those blockbuster export figures. But where is the impetus for it to push yet higher

New Zealand Dollar Forecast: New Zealand Dollar Resilience Vulnerable to Dovish RBNZ
NZD/USD may consolidate ahead of the RBNZ’s policy meeting as it remains stuck within the narrow range carried over from the end of January, but the pair may continue to threaten the descending channel carried over from the previous year.

Canadian Dollar Forecast: The Canadian Dollar Puts BoC Against Traders, Who Will Win?
The climate continues to be ripe for Canadian Dollar appreciation despite Stephen Poloz’s speech that seemed to over-mention the “uncertainty” in the current environment.

Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan to Take Clues from the PBOC, Key Data
The offshore Yuan strengthened to 6.7919 against the U.S. Dollar as of 12pm EST on Friday, the strongest level in two weeks.

Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Vulnerable into February Open- Outlook Constructive Above 1200
Gold prices charged higher this week, recovering all the losses sustained in the previous session with the yellow metal rallying 2.3% to trade at 1219 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

more...

US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar Rise on Fed Rate Hike Bets at the Mercy of Team Trump
The US Dollar may find renewed support from a hawkish Federal Reserve in the week ahead but worrisome headlines from Washington, DC remain a potent threat.



Japanese yen Forecast: USD/JPY to Track Risk Trends as Yellen Fails to Shift Rate Outlook
Headlines coming out of the G20 meeting may yield a limited reaction in USD/JPY as the group of global finance ministers strive to avert a currency war.



Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar May Languish If Only For Lack of Clues
The Australian Dollar dodged a couple of bullets as local sentiment indicators soared, stealing some of the limelight from the US Fed as they did so. That will not happen again.



Chinese Yuan Forecast: Offshore Yuan Exposed to Onshore Risks as Spread Narrows
The two Dollar/Yuan pairs have been driven by different themes of recent: The Dollar’s strength weighted more on the offshore pair, while the onshore Yuan eyed more on moves from China’s Central Bank.



Crude Oil Forecast: Low Volatility At New And Higher Price Floor Favors Upside
Crude Oil looks poised to end the week lower for the first time in five weeks. However, there is a silver lining. As of Friday morning, the weekly price range in Crude Oil is the smallest in 13-years.



Global Equities Forecast: Global Equity Indices Buoyed, but Risk Quickly Rising for the S&P 500
Last week was a generally bullish one for equity indices outside of Japan, with U.S. and European markets showing modest to strong gains. Volatility was muted, something which traders are hoping will soon change.



Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Flirt with 1250 Hurdle Ahead of FOMC Minutes
Gold prices pressed higher for a third consecutive week with the precious metal up 0.39% to trade at 1238 ahead of the New York close on Friday.



more...