Technical Forecasts

US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar May Struggle as Trump Speech Overshadows Hawkish Fed
The US Dollar may struggle in the week ahead as doubts about the impact of still-uncertain fiscal policy overshadow hawkish pronouncements from Federal Reserve officials.

Japanese Yen Forecast: Kuroda Stokes Bullish Motivation in the Yen; CPI on Deck
One of the biggest beneficiaries of the ‘Trump Bump’ across global markets was Japan. After the BoJ spent more than three years weakening the Yen as part of ‘Abe-nomics. ’

British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Outlook Mired by ’Brexit’ Review, Hawkish Fed Rhetoric
The broader outlook for the British Pound remains tilted to the downside with the U.K. on course to trigger Article 50 in March.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Should Rise If GDP Growth Resumes
The Australian Dollar may gain if fourth-quarter GDP data confirm that the Lucky Country has avoided recession for yet another year. It is very likely that they will.

Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Eyes on Growth Outlook from Top Conferences
Looking forward, there are a bunch of events dotted on both China’s and the U.S’ economic calendar, which could add some volatility to Dollar/Yuan rates.

Gold Forecast: Gold Prices March into Fresh 2017 Highs- Fed Outlook in Focus
The rally in gold prices continued this week with the precious metal up 1.7% to trade at 1255 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

Equities Forecast: S&P 500, DAX & FTSE 100 Could Be Under Pressure This Coming Week
In last week’s forecast, we expressed our concern that risk was rising for the indices, but that the trend still remained upward until we saw a break in the bullish price action.

Oil Forecast: Growing US Supplies Continue to Limit Oil’s Upside from OPEC Cuts
The Oil market finds itself in a unique spot of the commodity landscape of Q117. Two of the largest global suppliers, the United States Shale Oil Producers and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are trending in different directions while the price seems to have stalled near the 2017 Opening Range high.

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US Dollar Forecast: Dollar Fully Primed for March Fed Hike Leses its Motivation?
The Dollar’s posture heading into the new week is bullish on the back of a remarkably decisive outlook for a Fed hike at the next official FOMC meeting.

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Carves Bullish Series Ahead of NFP on Hawkish Fed Rhetoric
USD/JPY may continue to retrace the decline from earlier this year as a growing number of Fed officials highlight a hawkish outlook for monetary policy, with U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) projected to increase another 190K in February.

British Pound Forecast: Eroding Services PMI Stokes Fear of ‘Brexit Permeation’ in the U.K. Economy
This was a brutal week for the British Pound, as the currency put in five consecutive days of losses against the U.S. Dollar to tally a total move of -2.8% from last Friday’s highs down to this Friday’s low.

Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan to Take Clues from New Yuan Loans, NFP
The USD/CNH broke above a key level of resistance at 6.8845 on Friday, driven by the Dollar advance following an increased odds in Fed rate hike.

Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Remain in Bull Trend Despite 2nd Down Week in 10
For only the second time in ten weeks, gold prices finished the week lower. The biggest development of the past week driving gold lower was the Fed’s interest rate expectations.

Equities Forecast: Equity Indices (S&P 500, DAX, FTSE 100) Look to Maintain Bullish Underpinnings

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US Dollar Forecast: Dollar Will Find Less Lift in Next Fed Hike, Policy Promise
Despite a remarkably robust set of economic data – that included strong February payrolls – and a rise in rate expectations to the point of certainty that the Fed will hike Wednesday, the Dollar lost ground this past week.

Japanese Yen Forecast: Narrowing Fed Interest Rate Forecast to Curb Bullish USD/JPY Outlook
USD/JPY stands at risk of facing increased volatility over the coming week as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to deliver a March rate-hike, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to pursue its Quantitative/Qualitative Easing (QQE) Program with Yield-Curve Control.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Likely To Struggle if Fed Delivers
The Australian Dollar seems likely to continue lower if US interest rates rise this week, but the prevalent idea that Australian rates won’t rise this year faces new challenges.

Chinese Yuan Forecast: PBOC, Fed Remain Key Drivers to Yuan
The USD/CNH fell to a major support zone around 6.8845 on Friday after the non-farm payroll report failed to inspire a bullish-run in the Dollar. Earlier in the Asian session, PBOC’s officials’ talks on exchange rates added strength to the Yuan as well.

Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Cling to Support as Markets Await Fed
Gold prices fell for the second consecutive week with the precious metal down 2.67% to trade at 1201 ahead of the New York close on Friday. Bullion is down more than 5% off the yearly high and has been fueled by expectations for higher borrowing costs from the Fed.

Equities Forecast: S&P 500 & Nikkei 225 at Risk with FOMC, BoJ on the Docket
Global equity indices ended neutral to slightly off for the week. The ECB met on Thursday and held on their path for monetary policy as expected, with Mario Draghi saying nothing to spark any significant volatility in European markets.

Oil Forecast: Testing Week Ahead for Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices have broken to the downside over the past few days, finally reflecting the ongoing imbalance between plentiful supply and limited demand.

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US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar May Recover as Fed Speeches Reiterate Rate Hike Intent
The US Dollar may recover after suffering its largest weekly loss in nearly five months as Fed officials reiterate their intention to continue raising rates this year.

British Pound Forecast: CPI the Focal Point as a Shift Begins to Emerge Within the BoE
The Bank of England hosted an interesting rate decision this week. No changes were made, and no rates were changed; but what was different was a dissenting vote within the BoE.

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Eyes 2017-Low as FOMC Tames Interest Rate Expectations
The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) March rate-hike failed to prop up the USD/JPY exchange rate, and the pair appears to be working its way back towards the 2017-low (111.59) as the central bank tames interest-rate expectations.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Looks Short of Clear Direction
A week of relatively scanty economic data on both sides of the Pacific could leave AUD/USD sitting on its gains, but short of reasons to build on them.

Canadian Dollar Forecast: Holding Up Well as Oil Price Drops
The past fortnight could have been a terrible one for the Canadian Dollar, with the price of benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude dropping from above $53 per barrel on March 7 to below $49 now.

Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan at a Crossroads, Risk Trends Next?
The USD/CNH failed to hold a sustainable break below 6.8560 (December low), nor to climb above 6.9088 (61.8% retracement of the January drop). Looking forward, the economic calendar is light.

Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Shine as USD Drops- Post FOMC Rally Eyes Initial Resistance
Gold prices are higher this week with the precious metal up more than 2% to trade at 1229 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

Oil Forecast: Positioning Shift And Sentiment May Pressure Oil As Supply Swells
The Oil market appears to be wholly focused right now on whether or not the OPEC accord to reduce supply so that price stockpiles come in line with the 5-year average will be extended past June.

Equities Forecast: Watch the DAX, It Could Be on the Verge of a Big Move
Last week was a busy one, with the FOMC, BoJ, and BoE all holding monetary policy meetings, however; looking ahead to next week we are left searching for any major catalysts for stocks on the economic calendar. On that note, markets are likely to be technically-driven.

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US Dollar Forecast:US Dollar Left Vulnerable as Trump Trade Narrative Unravels
The US Dollar remains vulnerable after two weeks of losses as the failure of US healthcare reform puts the “Trump trade” case for steep Fed rate hikes into question.

European Euro Forecast: European Political Risks Front-and-Center as ’Green Shoots’ Continue to Show
Data out of the Euro-Zone continues to impress, giving the impression that we may finally be seeing the ‘green shoots’ of a European economic recovery taking place.

British Pound Forecast: Brexit Trigger in Focus for British Pound, More Strength Likely
The formal triggering of Brexit on Wednesday is the main event on the UK calendar in the coming week but the markets have become so used to the idea that the UK will leave the EU in due course that it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the British Pound.

Japanese Yen Forecast:USD/JPY Selloff to Face Fresh Fed Rhetoric; RSI Signal in Focus
After marking the longest stretch of losses since 2011, USD/JPY may stage a near-term recovery going into Japan’s 2016 fiscal year-end as Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak throughout the final week of March.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Retreat Looks Unlikely to Stop
The Australian Dollar has been sliding ever since that US interest rate hike gave it a large and unexpected boost. Even if that slide doesn’t accelerate, its’ hard to see what could stop it.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast: NZD/USD Remains Weak Helped by Central Bank Rhetoric
The New Zealand dollar looks set to resume its downward path, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not stand in its way.

Chinese Yuan Forecast: USD/CNH - The Less Weak Currency Will Take Control
The USD/CNH remained in a consolidation range, despite that the Dollar Index (DXY) has broken below a major support. This hints at both a weak Yuan and a weak Dollar.

Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Recover Entire March Decline – FOMC, US GDP in Focus
Gold prices are rallied for a second consecutive week with the precious metal up more than 1.56% to trade at 1248 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

Oil Forecast: Baker Hughes Rig Count & Tanker Prices Point To More Oil Oversupply
Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Oil - US Crude price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

Equities Forecast: Equity Markets Rattled, but Not Broken (Yet)
The economic calendar for the coming week is light with ‘high’ impact events. We have Advance Goods Trade Balance and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday; Final Q4 GDP on Wednesday; Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on Friday.

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US Dollar Forecast: Trump, Xi Meeting May Derail Data-Driven Trade
The US Dollar is trying to return to more “normal”, data-driven trade but a meeting between US President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping may complicate matters.

British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Unfazed by Brexit Trigger; More Fed Rhetoric, NFP on Tap
Despite all the anticipation surrounding ‘Brexit,’ the British Pound is little changed even as the U.K. officially triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

Japanese Yen Forecast:Bank of Japan Holds the Accommodative Line While Inflation Remains Sub-2%
After a rather consistent run of weakness against the Greenback in the month and a half after the start of the ‘Trump Bump’, USD/JPY combined sideways price action with a slight bearish bias to continue the retracement-lower that started in the first week of this year.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Will Have To Let Its US Cousin Drive
The Australian Dollar remains quite close to its 2017 peaks against its US counterpart, but it’s hard to see what might make it break out either way this week, assuming all goes as forecast.

Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Eyes on US-China Leaders’ First Summit
The offshore Yuan continued to consolidate against the U.S. Dollar this week and remained stronger than PBOC’s guided levels.

Gold Forecast: Gold Hindered by Dollar Rebound
Last week, gold prices rallied for a second consecutive week with the metal up more than 1.56% to amid continued weakness in the Greenback, owing to increasing hesitancy over the so-called ‘Trump trade’

Oil Forecast: OPEC Extension Confidence Gives Oil Best Week of 2017
The beginning of Q2 is setting up to be important for Oil traders to watch given what’s happening behind the price, which could determine if Crude Oil turns lower or much higher over Q2.

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US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar: Rates-Driven Trend Complicated by Geopolitical Jitters
The US Dollar has scope to continue building on a two-week recovery as Fed policy bets turn favorable but geopolitical jitters complicate the outlook.

British Pound Forecast: Sterling to Extend Losses on Slowing UK CPI, Average Weekly Earnings
The British Pound may face further losses in the week ahead as the economic docket is anticipated to show a downtick in U.K. price & wage growth.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Looks Set To Struggle, March Lows In View
The Australian Dollar has been knocked lower by US missile strikes against Syria, and seems likely to remain pressured if this situation escalates.

Chinese Yuan Forecast: USD/CNH at Resistance, Event Risks in Focus
What happened over the past 24 hours have led to the most dramatic moves in the USD/CNH this week. U.S. striking Syria sent the pair higher as investors sought for safe haven; a disappointing Non-Farm Payroll print led to selling in the Dollar, though it was quickly eased and reversed.

Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Set to Consolidate After Sharp Run-Up
US crude oil continues its push higher, hitting a one-month high, as traders fear that supply may be affected after the recent US air strikes on Syria.

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US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar May Rise Trump Jawboning, Geopolitical Fears Recede
The US Dollar may rebound as the impact of President Trump’s jawboning recedes and signs of a political accommodation with Russia and North Korea appear plausible.

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Carves Bearish Series as Risk Sentiment Abates
Concerns surrounding Syria accompanied by the threat posed by North Korea appears to have heighten the appeal of the Japanese Yen especially as the U.S. becomes increasingly involved in foreign affairs.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Set to Suffer if ’Risk-Off’ Theme Returns
Looking ahead, though, the Aussie is generally one of the first currencies to suffer when traders decide to limit their risks by seeking havens such as the Japanese Yen and gold.

Gold Forecast: Gold Rally Flirts with Major Breakout on Trump / Dollar
Gold prices are poised to close higher for the fifth consecutive week with the precious metal up more than 2.6% to trade at 1286 ahead of the New York close on Thursday.

Equities Forecast: S&P 500, DAX & FTSE 100 Could Be in for a Tough Week
In the week ahead, the economic calendar is quite light on ‘high’ impact events, with several ‘medium’ impact releases due out in the U.S. throughout the week.

Oil Forecast: Oil Inventories Remain High Despite OPEC Cut, Extension Expected
Nationwide US Oil Output moved to its highest level since January 2016 per the EIA report on Wednesday despite U.S. Crude stockpiles falling by 2.2m barrels.

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US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar Bracing for French Election, Trump Tax Plan, GDP Data
The US Dollar looks set for a volatile week as the first round of the French presidential election, a White House tax reform proposal and first-quarter GDP data loom ahead.

Japanese Yen Forecast:No End In Sight For Accommodative Monetary Policy
Speaking in Washington Friday, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda had a simple message: the current pace of quantitative and qualitative easing is set to continue indefinitely

Canadian Dollar Forecast: Canadian Dollar Likely to Weaken Further as March Low Nears
The Canadian dollar looks likely to test its recent low against the USD, opening the way for further falls. Price action this week had been driven by a slightly weaker oil complex, pushing the Loonie lower

British Pound Forecast: Are Early Elections Really a ’Game-Changer’ for the British Pound?
The big news out of the U.K. this week came on Tuesday morning from Prime Minister Theresa May, in which she surprised the world by announcing that general elections will be held early, on June the 8th.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Looks Short Of Clear Positives
The Australian Dollar could find itself under pressure again in the coming week. Its home economy is doing quite well, but the international picture looks less bullish.

Equities Forecast:CAC 40 to Move on Presidential Election Results; FTSE 100 at Support, S&P 500 in Limbo
Markets will start out the week with the French presidential election on their minds, but to what impact it will have on U.S. markets likely depends on the magnitude to which Europe moves

Oil Forecast: Oil’s Near-6% Drop May Pave The Path For Improving Fundamentals
You wouldn’t know it by looking at the charts, but there was more encouraging news from OPEC as well as a US Inventory Draw on Wednesday per the EIA weekly release.

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US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar at Risk as Fed Decision-Makers Reconvene
The road ahead may prove challenging for the US Dollar after it enjoyed its best week yet in 2017 as all eyes turn to the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement.

Japanese Yen: Disappointing Data Add to Downside Pressure
As predicted here a week ago, the Japanese Yen declined last week and there’s little sign yet that the trend is about to change.

Canadian Dollar Forecast: The Loonie Lacks Wings
The Canadian dollar is the worst performing G10 currency in April, with USDCAD at its highest since February 22 2016.

British Pound Forecast: Hawkish Fed, Strong NFP to Tame GBP/USD Recovery
The relief rally in the GBP/USD exchange rate may gather over the days ahead as it breaks out of a near-term holding pattern.

Australian Dollar Forecast:Australian Dollar Faces Nervy Week Despite Central Bank Inertia
The Australian Dollar has been weakening against its US counterpart since mid-March. That trend will probably endure this week, but may not worsen.

Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Slide as Market Jitters Subside- FED / NFPs to Steer
Bullion looks to close the month higher by nearly 1.4% as weakness in the greenback and renewed geo-political tensions fueled demand.

Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Eyes on Chinese PMI, More Weakness Likely
The USD/CNH continued to consolidate in a range this week; it failed to set a lower low or a higher high. Looking forward, event risks could add volatility to the pair.

Equities Forecast: S&P 500 Has Eyes for New Highs, DAX Too
Looking ahead, Monday may be relatively quiet with major financial centers in Europe closed for holiday.

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