Technical Forecasts

US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar Survives Yellen Speech, Looks on to Jobs Data
The US Dollar avoided outright breakdown after Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Jobs data is now in focus to inform rate hike speculation.

British Pound Forecast: GBP: Signs of Stability Begin to Emerge
The British Pound fell again last week, as we forecast, but signs of stability were emerging by the week-end, suggesting that its decline may have come to an end, for now.

Japanese Yen Forecast: Japanese Inflation Weak but Stable; Yen Trends Remain Elusive
The four-month range in USD/JPY continued as prices remained pinned-down near support; But will a slew of high-impact releases out of the U.S. drive risk trends that might finally bring a directional move back into the Yen?

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Still Looks Pinioned By Watchful RBA
The Australian Dollar gets yet another neutral fundamental call this week, simply because so many of the factors that have kept it cornered remain in play.

Canadian Dollar Forecast: CAD Running Out of Steam, Bears May Prevail
The Canadian dollar has benefitted from higher rates and the weakness in the US dollar, but has it gone too far, too soon?

Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Outlook Mixed on PBOC's Guidance, Chinese PMI
PBOC’s guidance, Yuan’s funding costs as well as China’s PMI gauges will be top drivers for Yuan rates next week.

Equities Forecast: S&P 500, DAX & FTSE 100 On Soft Footing

more...

US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar Resilience May Foreshadow Gains as Data Flow Slows
The US Dollar has proven resilient in the face of disappointing news flow. A slowdown in top-tier event risk in the week ahead may unleash a pent-up upswing.

British Pound Forecast: Outlook Improves Against Both USD and EUR
Near-term prospects for the British Pound have improved significantly in recent days against both the US Dollar and the Euro.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar: Big Week Looms, But Will it Really Matter?
Australian Dollar watchers have plenty to look forward to, with an RBA policy call and GDP figures both due. But will even they be enough to get AUD/USD moving at last?

Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Outperforms against Majors, Continues to Watch PBOC
The Chinese currency has beaten major currencies this week; whether it can keep the strength largely depends on the PBOC’s guidance.

Equities Forecast: DAX Seeking Boost from ECB; S&P 500 Staring Down New Record
The DAX could make a material move on Thursday’s ECB meeting if the euro reacts strongly; S&P 500 on approach to record highs again, but has one distant bearish possibility.

Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Eye Fresh 2017 Highs Following Lackluster U.S. NFP Report
Gold prices may continue to press to fresh 2017 highs as market participants appear to be moving away from fiat-currencies.

Crude Oil Forecast: Downstream Concerns Continue To Paint Bearish Picture for Crude Oil
As markets get a dim understanding of Harvey’s aftermath, refiners look to be out of the demand picture for longer than first thought.

more...

US Dollar Forecast: Dollar Drop Crosses 12%: Can Inflation Turn the Tide Ahead of the Fed?
The U.S. Dollar has been pulverized by a plethora of factors. But after a rise in July inflation, will another bump help to buck the bearish trend?

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD to Stay Bid Ahead of FOMC as ECB Unveils Post-QE Game Plan
EUR/USD remains bid following the ECB meeting, with the pair at risk for a further advance amid waning expectations for another Fed rate-hike in 2017.

British Pound Forecast: Advance Against USD Set to Continue
The climb in GBP/USD will likely continue in the week ahead though the British Pound is not looking as well placed against either the Euro or the Japanese Yen.

Canadian Dollar Forecast: CAD Rally: Too Much, Too Soon?
The Canadian dollar has gained 12% against its US counter-part in the last four months as the BoC embarks on tightening monetary policy. But is the move too much, too soon or does it have further to run?

more...

US Dollar Forecast: FOMC Set to Start Quantitative Tightening - How Will Bonds, USD Respond?
Next week brings a Pivotal Federal Reserve meeting where the bank may look to begin balance sheet reduction. This is QE in reverse, and questions abound for how it might roll-out.

British Pound Forecast: The Central Bank Clears the Path for Rate Hikes
Sterling has enjoyed a stellar week after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s hawkish rhetoric opened the way for an interest rate hike ahead of market expectations.

Equities Forecast: S&P 500 at Risk of FOMC; DAX Looking Higher, FTSE 100 Lower
FOMC next week to impact risk and S&P 500, DAX looks poised for further gains after last week’s breakout while the FTSE 100 goes its own way on a break of important support.

Gold Forecast: Gold Price Forecast Hinges on Fed Rate Decision, Policy Outlook
Gold prices snapped a three-week winning streak and have carved out a clean monthly opening range. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter.

Crude Oil Forecast: Upgraded Demand Forecasts Gives Crude Best Week Since July
Despite heading for the first weekly gain since July, Crude Oil pushed lower from a strong downward trendline on Hurricane Irma risk.

more...

US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar Will Try To Build on Post-FOMC Gains. Will It Succeed?
The US Dollar snapped a four-week losing streak and looks likely to attempt a larger recovery following a hawkish FOMC policy meeting. It’s success is far from assured.

British Pound Forecast: Likely to Take a Breather as Brexit Talks Resume
GBP/USD will likely pause for breath this week after its steady climb throughout the year so far.

Japanese Yen Forecast: The Bank of Japan Adds a New Dove to the Dole – CPI on Deck
The Bank of Japan may be even more dovish now with the addition of a new board member, but threats from North Korea may continue to restrain the runaway Yen-weakness that’s become commonplace in risk-on environments.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Looks Set To Hang On At The Heights
The Australian Dollar’s 2017 role in life seems to be to hover around its highs, at least against the US version. There seems little chance of a change this week.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast: NZD/USD Bid Ahead of Election- Outlook Hinges on RBNZ Policy
Fresh remarks from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may influence the near-term outlook for NZD/USD with Prime Minister Bill English slated to win the election.

Equities Forecast: Looking ahead to next week markets will try to keep steady footing barring surprises
North Korea, German elections – FTSE rises back into key resistance on May ‘Brexit’ speech.

Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Plunge as Fed Embarks on QT- Support Targets in View
Gold broke below the monthly opening-range lows this week with prices at risk for further losses near-term. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter.

Crude Oil Forecast: Oil Nears 27-Month High But OPEC Extension Needed
The price of a barrel of oil has moved higher in the past three months as the current OPEC production cut agreement crimped output but markets now need to know if these cuts will be extended or not.

more...

US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar Aims to Extend Advance But Politics Threaten Progress
The US Dollar aims to build on recent gains as rising inflation feeds Fed rate hike speculation but politics threaten to spoil the markets’ mood once more.



British Pound Forecast: Further Weakness Likely, But Not Inevitable
The British Pound looks set to slide further in the days ahead on political concerns, the Brexit impasse and weak data. However, it’s also due for a correction, which could come at any time.



Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Outlook Clouded with Mixed Signals Ahead of FOMC Minutes
USD/JPY appears to be on course to test the July-high (114.50) as it clears the monthly opening range ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.



Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Faces Hostile Backdrop, May Well Struggle
The Australian Dollar had a tough week last week and, while the coming one may be kinder, there’s little reason to suspect any change in the current AUD/USD downtrend.



Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Crosses Under $50 as Tropical Storm Nate Bears Down
Oil prices fell back below the vaulted psychological level of $50 as worries about Tropical Storm Nate began to get priced-in. Meanwhile, a key long-term trend-line continues to help shape resistance in WTI.



more...

US Dollar Forecast: Caution Called For As Event Risk Mounts
British Pound trading was confused and disorderly over the past week and is likely to remain so in the coming week as event risk looms.



Japanese Yen Forecast: Kuroda, BoJ Recommit to Ultra-Loose Policy Ahead of Japanese Elections
Policy remains ultra-loose in Japan, and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. But – there are other risks to continued Yen weakness, and these are factors that traders will likely want to keep an eye on.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Should Hold Up As Greenback Loses Some Shine
The Australian Dollar got plenty of support last week and, while this week may not see a repeat, it should be able to at least hold up against its US cousin.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast: Lackluster New Zealand CPI to Undermine NZD/USD Recovery
The near-term rebound in NZD/USD may unravel next week should New Zealand’s 3Q CPI print encourage the RBNZ to carry the record-low cash rate into 2018.

Canadian Dollar Forecast: Canadian Dollar Edgy on NAFTA Fears
The Canadian dollar is looking under pressure as US President Donald Trump continues to threaten to pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Looks to China Q3 GDP, Party Congress for Further Strength
The Chinese Yuan may get some support from China’s Q3 GDP; while, to set a large rally, it needs good news from the Party Congress.

Equities Forecast: S&P 500, DAX & Nikkei Outlook Turns Cautious In Extended Territory
In the week ahead, there aren’t very many significant fundamental points of interest which are likely to sway markets, but technically markets, while strong, are at a point where caution is warranted near-term.



Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Snap Four Week Losing Streak on Dissapointing CPI
Gold has rallied for six consecutive days with the advance taking prices through key technical resistance. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter.



Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Crude Pushes Higher on OPEC Confidence, Deflating Dollar
Crude Oil recovered nicely to end the week and is moving higher in alignment with base metals as global demand appears to be on the rise.



more...

British Pound Forecast: Supported For Now But Politics Hold Sway
The British Pound continues to be held ransom by the ongoing Brexit talks although next month’s central bank policy decision may underpin GBP

Euro Forecast: ECB To Announce Start of Tapering, Will Avoid Any Surprises
Euro trading will be dominated in the coming week by Thursday’s meeting of the European Central Bank, which will signal a tightening of Euro-Zone monetary policy from January.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Faces Bare Data Landscape, CPI Stands Alone
The Australian Dollar might find itself a bit short of domestic drivers in the coming week. Official inflation data are likely to be the crucial release.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast: Slowing U.S. GDP to Temper NZD/USD Sell-Off
Key data prints coming out of the U.S. economy may temper the sell-off in NZD/USD should the figures undermine the Fed’s scope to implement higher borrowing-costs.

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD to Six-Week High as CAD Data Continues to Soften
The Bullish CAD theme that dominated markets during the summer continues to face questions. As CAD data weakens, as NAFTA discussions continue, little by way of optimism is showing around the Canadian Dollar.

Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Clarified by PBOC Governor, Waits for New Party Leaders
The PBOC Governor revealed the most recent updates on what you should know about trading the Yuan at the 19th Party Congress. Over the following days, more officials will talk about the economy and new leaders will be announced at the key meeting.

Equities Forecast: DAX Outlook as ECB Looms, S&P 500 Levitating While FTSE Seeks Resolution
The most influential event of this coming week is likely to be the ECB meeting on Thursday; technical posturing varies among major indices but the benefit of the doubt still lies with the bulls.

Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Retreat from Monthly Highs as USD Mounts Counter-Offensive
Gold is virtually unchanged for October with prices closing the week at the monthly open / technical support. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter.

more...

US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar Rally Sees Risks in Trump Fed Pick, Tax Reform Pace
The US Dollar is posed to continue upward after surging to a three-month high but stalled progress on tax cuts and President Trump’s Fed Chair pick may emerge as roadblocks.

British Pound Forecast: Risk of Weakness After BoE Delivers Expected Rate Rise
There’s little doubt that the Bank of England will double the UK Bank Rate to 0.5% on ‘Super Thursday’ but the British Pound could fall afterwards.

Japanese Yen Forecast: Dovish BoJ to Continue Priming the Pump; Will JPY Respond?
The Japanese Yen showed strength after last week’s election-driven weakness. With the Bank of Japan on the docket ahead of the Fed, might the bank be able to provide another push of weakness into the Yen?

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Pressured But May Have Suffered Enough
The Australian Dollar got an unexpected thump last week from some feeble inflation figures, but its pounding may have been a little overdone.

Canadian Dollar Forecast: FOMC Meeting, BoC Rhetoric to Influence USD/CAD Outlook
The FOMC rate decision along with a fresh batch of BoC rhetoric may fuel the near-term advance in USD/CAD as Chair Yellen and Co. appear to on course to deliver a December rate-hike.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast: Desperately Seeking Support
The New Zealand dollar has fallen sharply since September’s elections and has retraced all of this year’s rally on a combination of political uncertainty and a stronger US dollar complex.

Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan May Face Slower Economic Growth, Await US-China Trade Talks
China’s new Party leaders have revised the economic expansion target, choosing quality over quantity. This could have impacted Yuan’s long-term trend. In the short term, Trump’s talk on trade before his China trip could drive Yuan moves.

Crude Oil Forecast: Brent to 27-month high, Flood of US Crude Fails To Ignite Oil Selling
Crude Oil bounced between fundamental drivers that continue to encourage Bulls and has led to a swelling in Bullish market positions.

Equities Forecast: S&P 500, FTSE Face FOMC, BoE; DAX Looks to Extend ECB-Rally
The week ahead is a busy one, with the FOMC on Wednesday and BoE meeting on Thursday; markets will look to extend their recent runs as one month ends and a new one begins.

Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Preserve October Range- FOMC to Fuel the Break
Gold has continued to hold above technical support with all eyes now fixated on the FOMC next week. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter.

more...

US Dollar Forecast: All Eyes on Washington DC Amid Tax Cut Debate
The US Dollar is likely to find its fortunes linked to the prospects of passing tax cut legislation that markets think might lead to a steeper Fed rate hike cycle in 2018.

British Pound Forecast: Short-Term Weakness May Offer Long-Term Opportunity
The post-Bank of England sell-off in Sterling has pushed it back towards support levels and may offer bullish traders a second bite of the cherry.

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Stalls at July-High; Outlook Unfazed by Powell Appointment
The series of failed attempt to test the July-high (114.50) raises the risk for a near-term correction in USD/JPY as the pair preserves the range from earlier this year.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar May Not Get Much Support From The RBA
Australian Dollar bulls can probably look forward with scant relish to this week’s interest rate decision. Unless the RBA has had a major change of heart it won’t offer them much.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast: The New Zealand Dollar and The Tides of Change Ahead of the RBNZ
Next week’s RBNZ meeting comes amidst a tidal wave of change facing the Central Bank. While caution will likely be the order of the day, will Kiwi sellers remain at bay?

Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Looks to Trump-Xi Meeting, New Yuan Loans
The Chinese currency will embrace risks from both top leaders’ meetings and economic events in the coming week.

Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Crude Oil Trades Intraday to 2017 High As OPEC Breeds Confidence
The price of Crude Oil is set to rise another week, making it the fourth advancement of both WTI Crude and ICE Brent Oil. In late trading on Friday

Equities Forecast: S&P 500, DAX & FTSE All Notch New Record Highs; More to Come?
All three indices closed in record territory last week, will markets keep on keeping in the week ahead?

Gold Forecast: Post-NFP Gold Outlook: Prices Cling to Support into November Open
Prices continue to hold above key technical support with the focus on a break of the October trading range. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter.

more...