Technical Forecasts

The pair is trading along an sideways trend.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.5324, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.5400.An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1.5270, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1.5195 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the pair to reach support level 1.5120.
Supports: 1.5270, 1.5195, 1.5120
Resistances: 1.5324, 1.5400





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Bullion Round Up

Bullion prices continue to be under intense selling pressure after months of ETFs outflows, good economic data, a strong rally in global equities as well as low inflation numbers. The talk of reducing QE programme added more weight to be bullish on the safe haven metals. Prices buckled under these pressures and it left many weak hand investors flushed out of the market. SocGen call the end of the era on gold as great asset reallocation is happening. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs made a bearish bet to cut their long positions and short the yellow metal. We think that the Fed is undergoing an experiment by throwing different mixed signals and scenarios to fully understand how the market digests the word tapering. However, the key remains on the US labour market and how far it has improved. This Friday ADP numbers could set the tone on the dollar index as well as gold prices.

Building up to the second half of 2013, the US Federal Reserve seems ready and determined to cut back the QE programme as they witnessed positive economic data. However, chairman Bernanke remain cautious but very clearly under pressure to cut back on the $ 85 billion programme sooner than later. The continuous rumble and uncertainty only exacerbate holding gold as an inflation hedge or safe haven assets. Outflows in ETFs were an every month occurrence but lately the selling seems to have abated. Physical buying has picked up given the lower prices but investors’ confidence remains at an all-time low. Contrarian investors argued that such setup is optimal for a reversal on gold prices. The increase in negative sentiment could soon be too one sided and short sellers may have to unwind their short positions. Short covering remains to be the only hope to see higher gold prices as long as the situation favours it.

However, the short term outlook on gold remains murky as prices trade in the range of $ 1380 to $ 1420. It is becoming a repetitive ritual that one must short gold if it re-enter or break above $ 1400. The short sellers have interest to do so and this indicates that a break above $ 1425 will encourage more short covering. On the other hand, a break below $ 1380 could spell trouble and selling pressure could increase again. The risk to the downside remains but short term trading favour a higher gold price. If the situation permits, a weaker dollar index, correction in equity, increase uptake on ETFs product and with a decent physical demand may help gold retest resistance at $ 1424 area. However, our long term projection is to see this small rebound to falter and gold to retest previous low at $ 1321 or even lower.

Gold Technical

Market remains choppy as gold has once again faced selling pressure after it broke above $ 1400.00. It is becoming a repetitive ritual as the higher prices above the psychological level is rejected time and time again. The US dollar index rebounded from the low of 82.50 to a high of 82.95 but despite the weakness, gold continue to fail and retain the gains made. An initial break below $ 1405 was enough to send prices lower to break $ 1400.00. Investors are sending a clear message that dip buying will continue if prices dipped below $ 1390 but the short sellers are determined to short those rallies. We are growing sceptical at the rate that gold is going – that the fundamental and technical correlation exists.
Looking forward, a short term rally in a bear market is to be expected. Another bout of short selling opportunities is in the making and we would not be surprise that resistance at $ 1487 will be strong.

Resistance: $ 1416, $1437, $ 1438 Support: $ 1384, $ 1373, $ 1325
Traders Notes: Longs are taking positions at $ 1391, $ 1398, $ 1400, $ 1406 and $ 1414 with a stop loss ranging from $ 1373, $ 1385 and $ 1390 area. Profit target sets at $ 1424, $ 1445 and $ 1460 area.
Shorts are taking positions at $ 1404.50 and $ 1420.00 with a stop loss at $ 1425 area. Profit target is sets at $ 1400 and $ 1395 area.

Bullish – target $ 1460

Bearish – target $ 1280

Silver Technical

It will be a dull market if we do not see wild swings on silver prices. We previously warned that silver prices did not manage to break previous high of $ 23.19 and indicate further bout of weakness. The white metal gave back most of its gain but found support at $ 22.39 area. The hourly chart shows a potential rebound from this support line as the stochastic fast line is pointing higher. However, the MACD continue to trade negatively and that may well mean further consolidation before a change in direction. Technically, it has got rooms to move higher but it could continue to trade in this range of $ 22.00 and $ 23.50. Only a break above $ 23.35 will it encourage the bears to do more short covering.

Resistance: $ 23.19, $ 23.35, $ 25.59 Support: $ 22.37, $ 19.66, $ 19.00
Traders Notes: Longs are taking positions at $ 22.40 area but with a wide stop loss at $ 21.75. Potential profit area comes in at $ 23.20 area and others are targeting higher numbers.

Short Term (1 week)	Medium Term (1-3 weeks)	Long Term (1-6 months)
Bullish – Break $ 23.19	Bullish – Retest $ 24.50	Bullish – a potential bull run?

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The pair is trading along an downtrend.

The downtrend may be expected to continue from current levels, which will be followed by reaching support level 1388 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the pair to reach support level 1380.An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1407, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1418.
Supports: 1388, 1380
Resistances: 1403, 1407, 1418





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The pair is trading along an uptrend.

The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1.5400, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.5480.An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1.5320, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1.5270 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the pair to reach support level 1.5195.
Supports: 1.5320, 1.5270, 1.5195
Resistances: 1.5400, 1.5480





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The U.S. Comex gold future prices rebounded 0.33 percent this week to $1,397.20 on Tuesday and reached almost $1,408 during Wednesday Asian morning. The S&P 500 index is flat this week after falling 1.14 percent last week. The Euro Stoxx 50 index has fallen 0.50 percent this week after rising 0.19 percent last week. The Dollar Index continues to be under pressure, falling 0.73 percent this week after a drop of 0.39 percent last week. The U.S. 10-year government bond yield rose about 2bp week-to-date to 2.147 percent on Tuesday, down 8bp from the one-year high reached on 29 May.
Fed Tapering Debate Continues

Gold prices jumped on Monday in reaction to the unexpected contraction in the U.S. May ISM manufacturing data to 49 from last month’s 50.7, giving the market hopes that the Fed will continue its stimulus. However, recently both the Fed President George and the Fed President Fisher called for a dialing-back of the stimulus as the housing market improves and the low interest rates encourage more risk-taking. According to Bloomberg, the U.S. payrolls rose on average 196,000 per month in the first four months of this year while the unemployment rate dropped to 7.5 percent in April. A rise of above 200,000 on a sustained basis will prompt the Fed to reduce the pace of stimulus. The bullishness towards gold has dropped as the Fed has mentioned the possibility of trimming the bond purchases in the next few meetings depending on the economic outlook. Investors will keenly watch this Friday’s non-farm payroll numbers.
Gold Wagers and Investors Demand

Barclay reported that the net redemptions of gold-backed ETPs reached 454 tonnes this year, 183 tonnes in April and 114 tonnes in May. Barclays estimated that the cash-negative ETP holdings have fallen to 92 tonnes, and the redemptions will slow should gold prices go back above $1500 an ounce or the equity markets correct. As of 28 May, the speculative gross shorts futures positions in gold soared to a record high of 115,686 contracts while the net position as a percentage of open interest touched a record low since June 2005. Physical demand has slowed in Asia as well especially in India as the country has widened the curb on gold imports from banks to nominated agencies and trading houses while seasonal demand has also turned down.


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Good morning everyone. Yesterday’s forecasts went in our direction for the most part, in fact all pairs behaved as predicted. Again as advised market was sidelined for the most of the day. Today we can expect some moves as the market may pic a direction during the course of the day, for the moment market is still sidelined. Leaning more towards a weakening US Dollar but will be taking a mixed stance on this. Expecting Japanese Yen to also weaken. I’m adding three hedged pairs to offset the trading risk today. Happy trading everyone!!

Forecasts OutlookUS Dollar : Mixed Sentiments
Today we're expecting the EURUSD to proceed Long above the barrier levels of 1.30575 and 1.30869.


Fundamental Watch- CPI m/m
- Asset Purchase Facility
- Official Bank Rate
- MPC Rate Statement
- Minimum Bid Rate
- ECB Press Conference
- Unemployment Claims
- BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
- Ivey PMI





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Bullion Round Up

At the beginning of this week, we have highlighted in our previous commentary the importance of the up and coming economic data that could well set the tone of the US dollar index and how it will affect the price development in Gold and Silver. Given the constant coverage of the Federal Reserve clear intention to taper asset purchase programme or QE, investors are keeping a close eye on this week US employment data. Thursday US jobless claim data could provide more clue to the state of the labour market but the key data lies on Friday Nonfarm payrolls data with an expectation of 170k jobs to be created against 165k. Several Fed officials have made clear that as long as more jobs are created or in line with their 200k expectation, they expect the tapering of asset purchase programme to start as early as September this year.

There was a glimmer of hope on this week EU manufacturing data that came in at 48.3 against expectation of 47.8. Yes, the numbers remains under 50.0 and still in contraction but it is one step in the right direction. The recent cut in interest rate by the ECB as well as discussion to implement a negative interest rate certainly helps to weaken the Euro currency. UK manufacturing PMI data also show growth at above 51.3, giving the sterling a boost higher. However, it is not all good news as the US Manufacturing index suffered its first miss and contraction as the data came in at 49.0. We felt that the recent rise in the dollar index could be a factor as it was a lot stronger against many other currencies – thus affecting economic data out from the US.

Our short term outlook remains unchanged at the moment. The next direction on gold and silver remains data orientated and we stand by our previous short term outlook on gold remains murky as prices trade in the range of $ 1380 to $ 1420. It is becoming a repetitive ritual that one must short gold if it re-enter or break above $ 1400. The short sellers have interest to do so and this indicates that a break above $ 1425 will encourage more short covering. On the other hand, a break below $ 1380 could spell trouble and selling pressure could increase again. The risk to the downside remains but short term trading favour a higher gold price. If the situation permits, a weaker dollar index, correction in equity, increase uptake on ETFs product and with a decent physical demand may help gold retest resistance at $ 1424 area. However, our long term projection is to see this small rebound to falter and gold to retest previous low at $ 1321 or even lower.

Gold Technical

Gold started the day on a positive note as prices trade at $ 1408.00 but the same repetitive action got underway as Europe starts trading. Prices retraced lower again and retested the uptrend line (see below chart) at $ 1395.00 before spiked higher to $ 1410.00 on the back of the US ADP job numbers that came lower than expected. Technically, the market shows exhaustion and the bull could be on the last straw as it failed to put in with higher close. Failures to break pass $ 1424 and lower high has set gold prices to trade in a converging trend line. A breakout looks imminent and with the current situation, we favour the downside.

Looking forward, a short term rally in a bear market is to be expected. Another bout of short selling opportunities is in the making and we would not be surprise that resistance at $ 1487 will be strong.
Resistance: $ 1416, $1437, $ 1438 Support: $ 1384, $ 1373, $ 1325
Traders Notes: Longs are taking positions at $ 1391, $ 1398, $ 1400, $ 1406 and $ 1414 with a stop loss ranging from $ 1373, $ 1385 and $ 1390 area. Profit target sets at $ 1410, $ 1424 and $ 1460 area. Shorts are taking positions at $ 1404.50 and $ 1420.00 with a stop loss at $ 1425 area. Profit target is sets at $ 1400 and $ 1395 area.

Bullish – target $ 1460

Bearish – target $ 1280

Silver Technical

The silver market reaction was similar to gold. It managed to find support, creating a higher lower but lower high with two converging trend lines. Breakout is all imminent and we favour the downside at the moment. Technically, it has got rooms to move higher but it could continue to trade in this range of $ 22.00 and $ 23.50. Only a break above $ 23.35 will it encourage the bears to do more short covering.

Resistance: $ 23.19, $ 23.35, $ 25.59 Support: $ 22.37, $ 19.66, $ 19.00
Traders Notes: Longs are taking positions at $ 22.40 area but with a wide stop loss at $ 21.75. Potential profit area comes in at $ 23.20 area and others are targeting higher numbers. Traders Notes: Longs are taking positions at $ 22.40 area but with a wide stop loss at $ 21.75. Potential profit area comes in at $ 23.20 area and others are targeting higher numbers.

Bullish – Retest $ 24.50

Bullish – a potential bull run?

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DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2488

06 Jun 2013 06:41GMT[/B]Despite usd's rebound fm y'day's 2-wk low at 1.24 56 (NY), outlook remains mildly bearish for recent decline fm May's 1.2724 peak to extend twd 1.2418.
Hold short for 1.2438 n only abv 1.2559 confirms temp. low is in place, risk retrace. to 1.2580/90.

STRATEGY : Short at 1.2498
POSITION : Short at 1.2498
OBJECTIVE : 1.2438
STOP-LOSS : 1.2525
RES : 1.2517/1.2559/1.2705
SUP : 1.2456/1.2418/1.2371




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The pair is trading along an downtrend.

The downtrend may be expected to continue while pair is trading below resistance level 1415, which will be followed by reaching support level 1407.An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1418, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1428.
Supports: 1407, 1403
Resistances: 1415, 1418, 1428





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The pair is trading along an downtrend.

The downtrend may be expected to continue while pair is trading below resistance level 1.5585, which will be followed by reaching support level 1.5535 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the pair to reach support level 1.5480.An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.5620, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.5680.
Supports: 1.5535, 1.5480
Resistances: 1.5585, 1.5620, 1.5680





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