Technical Forecasts

EURUSD

EURUSD closed @ 12880 which was UNCHANGED from the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was 5 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Sup Zone 1.

The Hourly Oscillators are MIXED and the Price is Mildly Below the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 13020 holds and Daily Trend is Turning Down while 13245 holds, so expect the Price to be Choppy until the Breakout.

The Daily Closed unchanged and within a range but on a downtrend on the daily. The Hourly is in a downtrend with a Range mode and 13075-13195 are the Bearish Violation Zone . The Patterns on the hourly are suggesting a range with a potential to break lower. The 15min is also in a Range but we feel that there is more selling pressure . The Bearish Violation Zone is 12885-12930 levels and the PT Anchor Low/ High is 12870-12915 levels.

BULLS:*** *12845*** *12805*** *12745
BEARS:*** *12930*** *12975*** *13030

Today's Strategies:*** *Trade @ the Bulls & Bears Levels Only.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD closed @ 15270 which was ABOVE the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was 25 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Sup Zone 1.

The Hourly Oscillators are Bullish but Weak and the Price is Within the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed for the Bulls. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 15425 holds and Daily Trend is Turning Down while 15610 holds, so expect the Price to be Choppy until the Breakout.

EURUSD

EURUSD closed @ 12885 which was ABOVE the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was 5 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 10 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 1.
The Hourly Oscillators are Bullish but Weak and the Price is Within the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed for the Bulls. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 13025 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways Down while 13245 holds, so expect the Price to be Choppy until the Breakout.

The Daily Closed < R1 and within a range but on a downtrend on the daily. The Hourly is in a downtrend with a corrective up mode and 13075-13195 are the Bearish Violation Zone . The Patterns on the hourly are suggesting the upside may be limited to 12930-60 levels. The 15min is in a corrective up and the reverse may be seen at near 12900-30-80 levels . The Bearish Violation Zone is 12870-12930 levels and the PT Anchor Low/ High is 12880-12905 levels. GER PPI is out today.
Bulls 12845 12805 12745 Bears 12900 12930 12985
Today's Strategies SHORT near 12900 12930 with a tight stop with a 35-50 pips price target.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD closed @ 15255 which was ABOVE the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was 5 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 4 and the Low was 25 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 1.

The Hourly Oscillators are Bullish and the Price is Within the MA, so the Bears have to be Sidelined. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 15410 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways Down while 15510 holds, so expect the Price to be Choppy until the Breakout.

The Daily Closed >R2 and is in a Range with downtrend mode on a daily. The Hourly is in a downtrend with a range mode and 15495-15605 are the Bearish Violation Zone . The Patterns on the hourly are suggesting a range with a potential to move on either direction. The 15min is in a wider Range but we are still on the Bears side. The Bearish Violation Zone is 15260-15325 levels and the PT Anchor Low/ High is 15250-85 levels. UK CPI is out today.

USDJPY

USDJPY closed @ 10225 which was BELOW the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was 10 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Sup Zone 5 (U Turn Zone).
The Hourly Oscillators are Bearish and the Price is Within the MA, so the Bulls have to be Sidelined. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 10100 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways Up while 9780 holds, so expect the Price to be Choppy until the Breakout.

The Daily Closed < S4 and it is getting into range with a uptrend mode on the daily . The Hourly is in a range with an uptrend mode and 9820-9730 are the Bullish Violation Zone . The Hourly Patterns are suggesting a range and the high is not seen yet . The 15min is in a wider Range but creeping higher . The Bullish Violation Zone is 10150-10200 levels and the PT Anchor Low/ High is 10200-40 levels.

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EURUSD

EURUSD closed @ 12905 which was ABOVE the open and breached the previous day's high. The High was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 5 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 2.

The Hourly Oscillators are Bullish and the Price is Mildly Above the MA, so the Bears have to be Sidelined. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 13045 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways Down while 13245 holds, so expect the Price to be Choppy until the Breakout.
The Daily Closed < R1 and within a range but on a downtrend on the daily. The Hourly is in a downtrend with a corrective up mode and 13075-13195 are the Bearish Violation Zone . The Patterns on the hourly are suggesting the upside may be limited to 12960/13025 levels. The 15min is in a corrective up and the reverse may be seen at near 12960/13020 levels . The Bullish Violation Zone is 12820-12865 levels and the PT Anchor Low/ High is 12895-12935 levels. FOMC Minutes today.
BULLS:*** *12895*** *12850*** *12795
BEARS:*** *12960*** *13020*** *13045
Today's Strategies:*** *SHORT near 13000 13020 with a tight stop with a 35-50 pips price target.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD closed @ 15155 which was BELOW the open and breached the previous day's low. The High was 5 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Sup Zone 5 (U Turn Zone).
The Hourly Oscillators are Bearish but Weak and the Price is Mildly Below the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed for the Bears. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 15310 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways Down while 15510 holds, so expect the Price to be Choppy until the Breakout.

The Daily Closed < S2 and is in a Range with downtrend mode on a daily. The Hourly is in a downtrend with a potential to have a pullback soon and 15495-15605 are the Bearish Violation Zone. *The Patterns on the hourly are suggesting a range with a potential to push higher. *The 15min is also in a range until the breakout The Bearish Violation Zone is 15220-65 levels and the PT Anchor Low/ High is 15140-95 levels. FOMC and BOE Minutes.

USDJPY

USDJPY closed @ 10250 which was ABOVE the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was 10 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 2 and the Low was 10 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 1.

The Hourly Oscillators are Bearish and the Price is Within the MA, so the Bulls have to be Sidelined. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 10125 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways Up while 9780 holds, so expect the Price to be Choppy until the Breakout.

The Daily Closed < R1 and it is in a range with a uptrend mode on the daily . The Hourly is in a range with an uptrend mode and 9820-9730 are the Bullish Violation Zone . The Hourly Patterns are suggesting a range and we may get a breakout on either side . The 15min is in a wider Range until the breakout . The Bullish Violation Zone is 10150-10200 levels and the PT Anchor Low/ High is 10225-75 levels. BOJ Interest Rate Decision , Monetary Policy statement and FOMC Minutes.

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Market Review - 21/05/2013 21:50 GMT Dollar retreats broadly on Fed Bullard's comments

The greenback pared early gains against majority of its peers ahead of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony in Congress on Wednesday after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard dented hopes that the Fed might taper its bond purchases anytime soon.
Fed's Bullard said 'asset buying is best policy option for central banks when interest rates near zero; Fed should continue QE, adjusting pace of bond buying according of incoming data.'

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback rallied at Asian open and rose to 102.76 in Asian morning after Japan Economy Minister Akira Amari clarified his weekend's comments regarding the yen's recent weakness. Dollar continued to trade with firm undertone and climbed to an intra-day high at 102.89 ahead of New York open. However, dollar pared intra-day gains and tumbled to 102.25 in New York afternoon after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policymakers should continue buying bonds because it's the best available option to boost growth that is slower than expected.

Japan's Amari said 'hope fx market can strike balance between impact on imports n exports; no comment on whether correction in excessive yen strength is over; hope fx market settles at a level in line with economic fundamentals.'

Although the single currency dropped sharply to 1.2863 in early Asian morning, price rebounded to 1.2902 at European open. However, euro met renewed selling there and dropped to session low at 1.2841 ahead of European open before rallying in New York morning on dollar's strength following comments from Fed's Bullard. Price eventually rose to an intra-day high at 1.2934 in New York afternoon before easing.

Although the British pound came under selling pressure at Asian open and dropped to 1.5221 in Asian morning, price recovered to 1.5263 at European open. However, cable met renewed selling there and tumbled in European morning after a government report showed inflation slowed more than economists forecast, giving the central bank more room to boost stimulus that tends to weaken a currency. Price continued to ratchet lower and hit an intra-day low at 1.5113 in New York morning. Later, the pound pared intra-day losses and rebounded strongly to 1.5180 in New York afternoon on dollar's weakness before stabilising.

U.K. CPI in April came in at 0.2% m/m n 2.4% y/y, lower than the forecast of 0.4% n 2.4% respectively.

In other news, ECB's Liikanen said 'ECB measures have helped narrow bond spread; ECB measures have credibility.'

On the data front, German PPI in April came in at -0.2% m/m n 0.1% y/y, vs the expectation of -0.1% n 0.2% respectively.

Data to be released on Wednesday:

Australia consumer confidence, Japan trade balance, export, import, BoJ rate decision, EU current account, UK BoE meeting minutes, PS net borrowing, CBI industrial trend, Canada retail sales and U.S. existing home sales.

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Good morning everyone. Thursdays forecast was in the right direction for the most part.* Today I’m expecting the US Dollar to overall weaken *& Japanese Yen seems to be out of Sync. I’m not adding any pairs to the hedged currency pairs list to offset the trading risk.

Forecasts OutlookUS Dollar : Weak
Today we're expecting the EURUSD to proceed Long above the barrier levels of 1.28812 and 1.29211.

Fundamental Watch- German Ifo Business Climate
- Core Durable Goods Orders




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Resistance:	1.2956	1.2981	1.2994	1.3020-25
Support:	1.2920	1.2900	1.2876	1.2854

BIAS: This looks like moving higher to around 1.3043MAIN ANALYSIS: The break above 1.2915-25 came as a surprise and having reviewed the rally from 1.2796 I see that it developed in a rather skewed impulsive manner that explains yesterday's strength. The rally from yesterday's low is just as skewed so do take care but I feel that while 1.2900-20 supports that we should see further upside progress through to 1.2981 and later 1.2994. Look for a correction of around 60 points before the rally resumes for 1.2994 and later I feel the 1.3043 area (max 1.3077-92.) Above 1.3020-25 observe for any bearish reversal indications.
COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only an earlier break below 1.2875-00 would take us back lower but considering the rather vague structure I wouldn't want to get too bearish. Note the minor pivot support 1.2821 ahead of the 1.2796 low…
For more information regarding the support & resistance and medium term outlook please see the attached PDF file.
Good trading
Ian Copsey




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The FTSE has reached a multi-year high and its profit as a current pin-bar reversal on the weekly time frame gives us a good clue that a medium term sell is imminent as it rejects 6800. All we need to dois wait for the close this afternoon at 4:30pm to see if it does close as a bearish pin bar reversal on the weekly. If it does, we our second clue that this Index is ready for a multi-week sell (using the weekly chart)

What else is in support of a short on the weekly?

• The level/reversal bar overlaps with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension

• *6800 is a round psychological number

• The bounce off a price extremity like a 5 year high presents a great level for profit taking

• RSI divergence seen on the weekly.

We will seek to trade the break the low of this week's bar (if it closes as so) and manage accordingly.

Weekly Chart




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The pair is trading along an uptrend.
The uptrend may be expected to continue while pair is trading above support level 1384, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1403 and then 1418An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1384, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1368.
Supports: 1384, 1368, 1347
Resistances: 1393, 1403, 1418




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WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
27 May 2013 00:20GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.2933
55 HR EMA
1.2919

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Turning down
13 HR RSI
53
14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Initial recovery b4 down

Resistance
1.3085 - May 09 hourly sup
1.3030 - May 14 high
1.2998 - Wed's high
Support
1.2911 - Fri's low
1.2821 - Thur's low
1.2796 - May 17 5-week low.

EUR/USD - 1.2938 ... Euro went through several 'roller-coaster' sessions last week. The single currency rebounded strongly to 1.2998 on Wed b4 retreating swiftly to 1.2834 on hawkish Fed minutes. Price extended to 1.2821 on Thur b4 rebounding strongly to 1.2957. Euro rose to 1.2994 Fri n then dropped to 1.2911.*
. As mentioned earlier, the price action fm 1.2796 (May 17 5-week low) is possibly developing into a 'triangle' with a-leg:1.2796-1.2998; b-leg:1.2821 n c-leg has possibly ended at 1.2994 last Fri, suggesting as long as strg res area at 1.2994/98 holds, consolidation with downside bias remains for another drop to 1.2904/11 sup area (Fri's Asian n NY low respectively), below wud bring further weakness to 1.2887 (61.8% r of 1.2821-1.2994), however, breach of 1.2821 sup

(Thur's low) needed to signal a downside break of 1.2796-1.2998 range has occured n yield resumption of decline fm this month's high of 1.3243 for re-test of said sup n then twds Apr's 4-1/2 month low at 1.2745 later.*
. Today, selling euro on recovery in anticipation of another drop is still favoured with stop abv 1.2998, break wud risk stronger retrace. to 1.3030/33.*




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Bullion Round Up

The latest BOJ press conference further instil confidence that monetary easing that was recently embark is to stay for the long haul. There was concern about Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) where yields have been fluctuating higher. At the moment, questions were raised if Mr Kuroda is able to communicate effectively to investor with regards to his tolerance on JGBs percentage yield. The JPY has strengthened in the last few days and the Nikkei continue to plummet. Mr Kuroda added that target inflation of 2% is to stay and the trickle-down effect from the QE will be felt in the coming months. Exporters cheered at the prospect of a weakening JPY and recent poll suggested that Mr Abe popularity has increased as he plans to open up Japan protected (inefficient) market and pledge to increase wages to reach the inflation goal he has set out. This is truly Abenomics at a massive scale and we hope it works because the consequences of failure will be dire.

US dollar index continue to trade above the $ 83.50 level post Bernanke speech on tapering QE programme as early as June. DYX have enjoyed the strong rally ever since the talk of reducing the money printing programme. Meanwhile, US stock market remains resilient despite the weakening in European and Asian stock markets. Hedge Funds continue to be bearish on the outlook on commodities as China look to change their stance of maintain high growth. Europe continues to struggle with economic growth while US is barely out of the woods.

Most of the traders we approach are placing higher short positions in the range of $ 1405 to $ 1418 area with a tight stop loss at $ 1425. A break above $ 1425 could give the bulls some encouragement to retest $ 1440 at least. Meanwhile, a break below $ 1370 will add selling pressure that the short covering has ended and the downtrend continues. If that was the case, we anticipate a full retest of $ 1325 and possibly a new low. We will not comment on silver as the white metal is far too volatile.

Gold Technical

With a weaker US dollar index, gold should be able to rally and break the psychological level of $ 1400. It has failed on several occasions, thus indicating that there is strong selling pressure. Meanwhile, gold managed to find support at $ 1337 and $ 1357 where buyers pushed the prices higher. We would like to point out however; the increase in price (or rebound) remains questionable. This is because the price increase in a falling volume usually indicates that weak hands are buying. We continue to see weakness in gold as ETFs outflow continues and physical buying will not be sufficient to support the market.

Resistance: $ 1412, $1422, $ 1438 Support: $ 1354, $ 1345, $ 1325

Bearish – target $ 1280

Bullish – target $ 1450

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Silver Technical

To trade the Silver market, one either has a good heart or a very deep pocket to sustain the whipsaw we witnessed yesterday. Prices plunged at the opening by $ 2 dollars per ounce, hitting a low of $ 21.19 before a quick recovery. Bloomberg reports that only 3000 contracts were traded but the thin volume was sufficient to take the price down. We fear that the selling will continue and media report the lack of industrial demand from China and Europe may have decreased the need for the white metal.

Resistance: $ 23.19, $ 23.65, $ 25.59 Support: $ 22.05, $ 19.66, $ 19.00

Bearish – break below $ 23.15 could see a retest of $ 22.00

Bullish – a potential bull run?

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