Technical Forecasts

In the Dollar’s advance to three-year highs, will the safe-haven currency continue this week with Chinese GDP data and Bernanke talking the taper?

Dollar Versus S&P 500 as Bernanke Threatens Another Bolt of Volatility
It was only a matter of time before the synchronized rally by the USDollar and S&P 500 suffered a fatality in the form of a reversal…

Lingering Portuguese Problems Weigh on Euro amid Light Docket
The Euro was the second worst performer last week, as the two sticky issues developing for the single currency…

Japanese Yen Not Done Yet - Potential for Further USDJPY Weakness
US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke ended the Japanese Yen’s losing streak against the US Dollar, sending the USDJPY lower for the first week of the past four and leaving us in favor of further short-term declines…

British Pound Rebound to Accelerate on Faster Inflation, BoE Minutes
The British Pound snapped back from a fresh 2013 low of 1.4812 and the GBPUSD may continue to retrace the decline from earlier this year..

Gold Rally at Risk Ahead of Fed’s Beige Book, Bernanke Testimony

Gold is firmer this week with the precious metal rallying 4.74% to close at $1280 in New York on Friday, its largest weekly gain in nearly 2 years…

Australian Dollar May Rebound Absent Swell in Fed QE Taper Bets
The Australian Dollar may have scope to launch a recovery but the move may be undermined by another heavy well in Fed QE cutback speculation...


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Forex markets have slowed down as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke eased market tensions and sent volatility lower. Here are the trades we think might do well in current markets.

Don’t Fight the Fed - Bernanke's Words Will Drive US Dollar Lower
The US Dollar fell against major currencies except the Japanese Yen as the S&P 500 surged to fresh record-highs…

Euro Stability in the Face of Financial Trouble a Sign of Strength?
Can this benchmark currency exploit its fundamental buoyancy and drive EURUSD above 1.3200 this week?

British Pound Looks Higher Ahead of 2Q GDP as BoE Votes Unanimously
The Euro finished the week mixed overall, sliding another -1.41% against the US Dollar…

Yen Could Weaken as ‘Abenomics’ Affirmed by Japanese Elections
The Japanese Yen will have a difficult time this coming week with elections around the corner.

Australian Dollar Has Room to Recover if CPI Data Cooperates
The Australian Dollar appears increasingly likely to launch a recovery…


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With event risk like US non-farm payrolls, Chinese Manufacturing PMI and rate decisions from the ECB, BoE and Fed, this week is sure to be volatile in FX markets. Here’s what we are looking at.

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) dropped for a third consecutive week through this past Friday as volatility leveled off and ‘Taper’ concerns eased during a lull in the economic docket…

Euro Could be Best Performer if Spanish GDP Beats, ECB Holds

On the back of improved peripheral data, the Euro is set to have a strong finish to July from a fundamental perspective - provided two key events in the coming week break in particular fashions; we're bullish.
Yen on the Verge of Huge Moves ahead of Fed, but Which Direction?

The Japanese Yen surged against the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) and took top spot among all G10 forex counterparts on an important week for Japan’s economic data…

British Pound Rally to Accelerate on Stronger Recovery, Unanimous BoE
The British Pound continued to pare the decline from earlier this year, with the GBPUSD pushing to a fresh monthly high of 1.5433, and the sterling looks poised to appreciate further next week as the Bank of England (BoE) appears to be slowly moving away from its easing cycle…

Australian Dollar Rebound Threatened by Heavy US Event Risk

The AUDUSD pairing has made a tentative shift in momentum but the coast is far from clear for bears as a packed US economic calendar threatens to and pull the currency into the “taper on/off” debate surrounding the direction of Federal Reserve policy.

Gold Rebound Stalls Ahead of Resistance- Forecast Hinges on FOMC, NFP
Gold prices are markedly higher at the close of trade this week with the precious metal rallying 2.87% to trade at $1332 at the close of trade in New York on Friday…

Use the DailyFX-Plus Technical Analyzer to identify possible trade setups.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.


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The USDollar moved lower on Friday with disappointing NFPs, but ended the week higher against all the majors. Will the S&P hold a record 1,700 level or give way and send the Dollar sky high?
Dollar Can’t Hold Gains, but Don’t Call the Rally Over Yet
The US Dollar looked to take out key highs versus the Japanese Yen, Euro, and other counterparts. Yet a disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls reportleft Dollar bulls wanting and yet the S&P 500 finished at record-highs – what might we see in the week ahead?
Euro Targets 1.3250 but Difficult with Risk Trends, Italian GDP
An absence of overriding themes like ‘risk trends’ can open the euro pairs up to influence from the local docket. That can generate fireworks for pairs like EURUSD or EURJPY prone to breakouts as top tier event risk like the Italian 2Q GDP release cross the wires.
British Pound Rebound Vulnerable to BoE Forward-Guidance
The British Pound struggled to hold its ground even as the Bank of England (BoE) retained its current policy in August, and the sterling may face additional headwinds in the week ahead amid growing speculation that the central bank will adopt forward-guidance for monetary policy…
Gold Holds Support as NFPs Disappoint- $1349 Remains Key Resistance
Gold prices were softer at the close of trade this week with the yellow metal sliding 1.5% to close at $1312 in New York on Friday…
Australian Dollar Looks Past RBA Rate Cut to Forward Policy Bets
The Australian Dollar is likely to look past a much-expected RBA rate cut to focus on indicators foreshadowing where policy is heading thereafter.
Use the DailyFX-Plus Technical Analyzer to identify possible trade setups.



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After a six-day tumble - the longest in 18 months - will the US Dollar leverage a slump in risk trends to drive a serious rally this week?

Dollar Could Put in for a Natural Rebound or Explosive Rally

Over the past week, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) suffered its worst weekly decline since December 2011 and its longest string of daily losses since December 2010. Taken without context, that is a strong bearish sign. However, when we consider the fundamental and technical backdrop; this situation looks like a launching point for a dollar rally.

Japanese Yen Surges but We’re Looking for Major Reversal

The Japanese Yen surged against the US Dollar, matching its best weekly performance since its June high (USDJPY low) on an otherwise quiet week for forex markets.

Bullish British Pound Trend to Gather Pace- Broader Range in Focus

The British Pound surged higher following the Bank of England (BoE) inflation report, with the exchange rate climbing to a monthly high of 1.5573, and the upward trending channel in the GBPUSD may continue to take shape next week as the economic docket is expected to highlight an improved outlook for growth.

Australian Dollar Recovery Expected to Continue vs. Majors

The Australian Dollar looks set continue its recovery, looking past a busy US economic calendar and its market-wide implications for Fed “taper” speculation.




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The July FOMC Minutes boosted the US Dollar its highest level in weeks as it appeared QE3 would be tapered in September. However, without the taper, the buck might fall. Expect volatility to pick up as the September 19 FOMC meeting approaches.

Dollar Rebound at Risk if Taper Doesn’t Inspire Risk Aversion
Though we have yet to see the wave of deleveraging wash over US equities – the stronghold of moral hazard – we have nonetheless seen a significant market adjustment to the September Fed Taper.
Why Hasn’t the Euro Broken Higher? Key Elements Worth Watching
The Euro has failed to break higher despite a very recent attempt. What’s stopping it and what could finally force the US Dollar out of its recent range?
Pressure on Yen Could Rise if Inflation Slows amid Weaker Growth Data
A recent downturn in Japanese growth data could provoke further stimulus from the Bank of Japan. A key piece of data this week will offer a potential bearish spark for the Yen.
GBPUSD Preserves Broad Range- Has Pound Carved a Top Ahead of BoE?
The British Pound fell back from a fresh monthly high of 1.5716 even as the preliminary 2Q GDP report showed an upward revision in the U.K. growth rate.
Gold Advances to Eleven Week High- Rally at Risk Amid Taper Talk
For the third consecutive week, gold prices are firmer with the yellow metal advancing more than 1.42% to close at $1396 in New York on Friday.
Australian Dollar Expected to Recover Absent Fed Interference
The Australian Dollar is expected to recover from Augusts’ low absent interference from speculation about the Federal Reserve’s intention to “taper” its QE effort.



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• Smallest Euro/US Dollar monthly range in six years underlines recent forex market indecision
• Huge week with FIVE central bank rate decisions promises a major break in summer lull
• Critical US Nonfarm Payrolls report could determine Dollar trends through year-end

These Key Events Could force the US Dollar Significantly Higher
The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index finished the month of August almost exactly where it started, but a critical week for forex markets almost guarantees that the Greenback will see much larger moves in days and weeks ahead.
Yen Crosses to Collapse if Nikkei 225, S&P 500 Falter
Rather than following the traditional economic measures – even heavy hitting themes like the BoJ rate decision and tax debate – yen traders need to watch the ebb and flow of risk appetite as the market grows more critical of historically low carry yield.
GBPUSD Outlook Hinges on BoE - How to Trade the Policy Meeting
A key Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision may help the British Pound maintain its bullish momentum versus the suddenly-resurgent US Dollar on improved outlook for the domestic economy.
Gold at Risk for Correction Below $1440 - NFPs in Focus
Though gold slipped this past week, the precious metal is still supporting its bull trend. This drive back to $1,400, however, may come into trouble as the NFPs revive speculation in the Fed’s September Taper time frame.
Use the DailyFX-Plus Technical Analyzer to identify possible trade setups.



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US Dollar Risks Breakdown Before the Fed’s Taper Decision
Trading conditions are growing dangerous – not because a particular currency or asset classes is threatening an unfavorable turn; but rather because there are alluring technical setups that are likely to fall apart almost immediately after they trigger. That is particularly true for many of the dollar-based pairings.
Euro Forecast - Huge Event Risk Didn’t Break Euro so What Will?
A sharply disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls report was supposed to be enough to send the US Dollar to fresh lows versus the Euro, but the EURUSD finished the week almost exactly where it began. What gives?
Gold Price Forecast – Gold Traders Eye Fed on Weak NFPs - September Range in Play
With war seemingly on the horizon and an improved US economic outlook, gold remains precariously positioned as investors look to the Fed for guidance.
British Pound Forecast - GBPUSD Preserves Bullish Trend on BoE Policy with Key Resistance Ahead
The British Pound tracked higher during the first full week of September, with the GBPUSD climbing to a high of 1.5680, but the bullish trend may be coming to an end as the pair comes up against key resistance.
How does a Currency War affect your FX trading?
Written by the DailyFX Research Team. To sign up for a weekly e-mail with our currency outlooks, go to our page for forex news delivered to your inbox.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.


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Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Set for Explosive FOMC…But Does it Rally or Collapse?
The event dollar traders – and really investors in all asset classes – have long waited for is finally upon us. Speculation surrounding the FOMC’s Taper decision has run rampant, spurring expectations and fear of an explosive reaction to a big shift in the market’s support structure.
Euro Forecast - It’s Do-or-Die time for the Euro/US Dollar ahead of FOMC Decision
The Euro broke to fresh multi-week highs against the US Dollar, but the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) continues to hold key multi-month lows. All eyes now turn a highly-anticipated US Federal Reserve policy announcement to drive FX moves.
Gold Forecast - Posts Largest Drop Since June Ahead of Fed- Bearish Below $1373
Gold price losses mark the largest single week decline since June and come ahead of next week’s highly anticipated FOMC policy meeting. Bullion remains at risk after breaking below key technical support.
British Pound Forecast - Pound Overbought on Upbeat BoE, MPC Minutes to Prompt Fresh Highs
The Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision may help the sterling to preserve the bullish trend dating back to July should the central bank highlight an improved outlook for the U.K. economy.
Australian Dollar Forecast - Rebound to be Tested by RBA Minutes, FOMC
The Aussie dollar is taking advnatage of an improved news flow out of China and an end to the RBA's rate cut regime. However, macro-level forces come into focus as all eyes turn to the Federal Reserve as the policy-setting FOMC committee convenes for its monthly meeting.



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US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Set for Breakout, Risk and Budget Standoff Decide Magnitude
The USDollar carved out an incredibly restrained 50 point range this past week – directly after the Fed held course on stimulus.
Euro Forecast – Why Might Next Week Finally Bring Big Euro and US Dollar Moves?
The Euro finished just short of 7-month highs versus the US Dollar as the 4th-consecutive week of DJ FXCM Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) weakness left the EURUSD near recent peaks.
British Pound Forecast - Pound Eyes 1.6200 on More Hawkish BoE, Stronger U.K. Recovery
Fresh comments from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney pushed the British Pound to a weekly high of 1.6132, and the GBPUSD may continue to track higher ahead of the next policy meeting on October 10 as the central bank moves away from its easing cycle.
How does a Currency War affect your FX trading?
Written by the DailyFX Research Team. To sign up for a weekly e-mail with our currency outlooks, go to our page for forex news delivered to your inbox.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.


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