Forex Strategies

USDCAD moved nicely lower beneath wave A support in the last few sessions in wave C, which we highlighted yesterday. Notice that from that latest 1.0260 low market reversed sharply and in impulsive fashion with current prices approaching upper trend-line of a corrective channel. Break through that line will put USD bulls back in play, back to 1.0420 and possible even send them to 1.0450 in the rest of the week against the CAD.






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AUDUSD: Declines, Eyes Key Support.

AUDUSD - The pair has ended its correction following a reversal of its gains on Tuesday and a follow through on Tuesday. This development leaves AUDUSD threatening g further declines towards the 0.9527/00 level. A break will target the 0.9450 level. Other supports are located at the 0.9400 level and the 0.9350 level. On the other hand, to reverse its weakness, it will have to return above the 0.9791 level. Resistance lies at the 0.9800 level and then the 0.9851 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9900 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside medium term.



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The Stronger USA Data could put a halt on the QE… may be not but Traders will react and will move is possible we are expecting the Bear trend in the stock indices and dollar along with metals Earlier AUD has weakened following softer than expected Australian GDP.A major event today is the May ADP Private Employment report. It is designed to predict the Private Payrolls component of NFP data due on Friday, but its track record has been uneven. Street estimates are for a gain of +170K vs. +119K in May.
Have a nice trading day ahead of you !
Cheers !
EUR/USD (last 1.3062)

Support:
1.2992 (S1)
1.2930 (S2)
1.2870 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
1.3138 (R1)
1.3238 (RR)
1.3385 (RRR)
RANGE – 13138---12970—13296
STRATEGY
Wait and watch for the euro can go higher towards 13230
Trend
Bull as long as 12955 holds on any correction
Mid term Trade
Long @1.2990 Stop@ 1.2941 Tgt 13208
Short@1.3324 Stop@13359 tgt 1.3147 (parked)
Intraday
Trad#1 Long@12982 stop@12943 tgt 13156 (New parked orders)
Trade#2 Day trade short@13254 Stop@13278 tgt 13124
GBP USD (CABLE) (15346)

Support:
1.5270 (S1)
1.5180 (SS2)
1.4970 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
1.5405 ®
1.5483 (Res)
15572 (**Major Resistance)
Range 15478---15575—15160
STRATEGY SOS (short on strength)
Trend is on the higher side near 15570 to go short on MOC on Thursday we will update on that day When it hit 15570 area ----
Day Traders
PARKED ORDERS
Mid term
Mid term or for the week
Trade #1 Long@1.5092 stop@15019 tgt 15520
Trade #2 short@15570 stop@15623 tgt 15375
Intra day trade
Trade#1 Long@15248 stop@15216 tgt 15408
Trade#2 Short@15571 stop@15614 tgt 15385
(Plz note on all the intra day of not filled By the same Day till MOC then Cancel the Trade)
USD/JPY (Yen) (99.54)

Support:
9865 (S1)
9805 (S2)
9735 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
10086** (R1)
10172 (RR)
10355 (RRR3)
Range -10172----9733—982
MID term
Long@98.45 stop@9767 tgt 10251
Short term
Short@10547 stop@ 10579 tgt 9988 (New parked order)
June Swiss (10553)

Support:
10485 (S1)
10425 (SS2.)
10296 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
10614 (Res1)
10716 (RR2)
10840 (RES3)
Range of the day 10116----10596--10326
Strategy SOS
long@10316 stop@10295 tgt 10466
Trade #1 Short@10693 stop@10718 tgt 10443
June Futures Cad $ (9653)

Flat
Support:
9617 (S1)
.9538 (Sup2.)
.9475 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
9763 (R)
9791 (Res2)
9866 (Res3)
Range of the Day 9575---9928---9724
MID TERM TRADE
Trade #1 long@ 9623 add 9592 stop@9568 tgt 9788
Short@9864 stop@9886 tgt 9718
Ausie $ June (9549)

Support:
.9520 (S1)
9470 (Sup2.)
9390 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
9643 (Res1)
9714 (Res2)
9827 (Res3)
Range for the Day -- 9366---9721---9504
Trend – wait for 9400 area t go long
MID Term
Short 10264 stop@10316 tgt 9856
Day trade
Trade#1 Short @9918 stop@9967 tgt 9700 first
Trade#2 long@9393 stop @9357 tgt 9708 (Parked new order)
XAUUSD (GOLD) (1398)

Strategy SoS From 1440 ish area
Support:
1385.60 (S1)
1365.5 (S2)
1326 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
1417 (Res1)
1426.7* (Res2)
1443.6*** (Res3)
Range of the Day 1371---1408- 1441
MiD Term
Short@1505 Stop@1528.75 Tgt 1265 (new parked order)
Long @1202.2 stop@1188. tgt 1415 (Parked and waiting)
Day Trade
Very RISKy stay on the side line
Short@1441.8 stop@1448.8 tgt 1408
#2 Short @1407 stop@1414.6 tgt 1382
#3 long@1308 stop@1302 tgt 1338 (New parked orders)
# 4 Long@1385 stop @1378 tgt 1416
XAGUSD (SILVER May) (22.41)

Flat
Support:
22.05 (S1)
21.30 (s2)
1940 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
2314 (Res)
2406 (RR)
2514 (Major resistance)
2120---24.34—19.07
Strategy
MiD TERM
Wait for Long @19.02 stop@18.87 tgt 23.55
High risk day Trade
#1 Short@2415 Stop@2447 tgt 2245
# 2 long@2145 stop@2117 tgt 2312 (New parked)
#3 Short@2337 stp @2364 tgt 2204
June ES (MINI Sp500) (1622 )

Strategy (Sos) Short on strength
Pattern
Support:
1614 (S1)
1606 (s2)
1581 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
1635.7 (R)
1658 (Major resistance)
1682 **********
Range for the day
1606.---1642---1587.
Strategy
Short@1650 stp @1656 tgt 1616 (New parked order)
July oil (93.55)

Strategy

Support:
9218 (S1)
9158 (S2)
9080 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
93.98 (Res)
9465 (Res2)
9570 (Major resistance)
Range of the day 94.78---90.27—9178
Strategy
Mid Term
Long@85.88 stop@84.75 tgt 89.40 (parked)
High Risk Day Trade
Trade#1 Short@9445 Stop@ 9472 tgt 9148 (New Parked orders)
Trade#2 long@9108 stop@9062 tgt 9215
Ranges for the other market
DJ
Nq
Time line For short term cyclical projections
GMT
---GMT
For ---
---- is minor turn cycle for the day
For the Fellow Traders plz do place the stops and intraday Trade means if not filled by MOC cancel the Trades


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Pound continues to surge on the back of positive UK data, this time thanks to the service sector that grew much faster than expected in May, surging to 54.9 from previous 52.9. The GBP/USD advanced again towards the weekly high around 1.5370, where the pair has the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily fall from 1.5601 to 1.5007. The upward momentum seen over previous updates remains intact, with indicators heading north in positive territory, and 20 SMA now crossing to the upside 200 EMA, although now a break above the Fibonacci is required to confirm a continued advance: an acceleration trough 1.5370 should lead to a test of the 1.5410/20 area, next short term resistance, while steady gains above this last may see the pair surging up to 1.5470.As for the downside, the pair has some short term support around 1.5300/10 but only below 1.5260 current trend can reverse. Selling is not an option right now.




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Dow Jones :
Resistance(daily close) : 14855.63, 15021.70, 15159.38 and 15404.28. Breaking of the latter would give 15643.13, 15845.63, 16022.80

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GBP/USD 1H chart 6/4/2013 9:40AM EDT



61.8% retracement: The GBP/USD is in a short-term bullish trend after a double bottom from around 1.5010. The rally is now cracking the 61.8% retracement at 1.3777 and a resistance pivot at 1.3785. The market is basically testing the 1.54 psychological level as resistance, which is so far holding in early 6/5 US session.

Moving averages, RSI: The 200-4H SMA is flat, reflecting a sideways market since retreating from the 1.5605 high. You might argue there is a slight bearish bias as most of the moving averages are still under the 200. With this sideways to bearish bias, we might expect a possible bearish divergence with the RSI to be followed by an intra-day downswing especially if the market shows resistance at 1.54.

Then, after the overbought condition is resolved, the upside in the near-term is up to the 1.5475-1.5480 area, which contains previous support area and the 78.6% retracement, unless GBP/USD breaks below a rising trendline that goes back to the 5/29 low of 1.5007.
The BoE is meeting and will conclude tomorrow. The US NFP on Friday will also be key.


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EUR/GBP 1H chart 9:25AM EDT 6/6/2013



Reactions after central banks: The BoE held its benchmark interest rate at 0.50% and left the asset purchase program at 375B pounds. The ECB also left it’s key rate at 0.50% after a cut in the last meeting. The EUR/GBP entereted the session bearish in the 1H chart, but found support at 0.8478 after the central bank event risks.

Falling channel: The bullish reaction in EUR/GBP is still in an early stage and has yet to change the short-term structure, which is a falling channel seen in the 1H chart. The 1H RSI is still under 60, showing bearish momentum bias. A break above 0.85 and the falling channel resistance will be needed to open up a bullish outlook, which first has the 0.8590-0.86 highs in sight.


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EUR/USD 1H chart 6/6/2013 8:55AM EDT



Breakout, ECB: The EUR/USD broke above the 1.3106 range resistance during the 6/6 Asian-European session. Ahead of the ECB meeting, there was a brief throwback. After the ECB released its statement, Mario Draghi had a press conference where he answered questions regarding policy.
Bullish Reaction: The EUR/USD shook a bit to the downside and then extended the breakout higher, pushing above 1.3150 in the immediate reaction. The rejection from below 1.31 shows that above 1.31, there is bullish bias. Note also that the break is clearing a falling trendline that goes back to the 2013-high of 1.3709.

1.32-1.3240: The current breakout opens up the 1.32 handle, up to the 1.3240 May high, as seen in the 4H chart. This area should provide resistance ahead of Friday’s US Non-Farm Payroll event risk. The bullish bias remains until a break below 1.31 and/or a break below a rising trendline from 1.2837 5/29-low.

NFP: The current reaction is likely limited ahead of the US NFP on Friday. But if EUR/USD breaks above 1.3240 after the event risk, then we have a bullish outlook in EUR/USD, with the 2013 highs near 1.37 opened up again. Otherwise, if the NFP prevents EUR/USD from breaking above 1.3240, reversion back to 1.31 handle down to 1.30 handle is possible. A break below 1.2950 will be needed to open up the 1.2837 low down to the 1.2744, 2013-low.
EUR/USD 4H chart 6/6/2013 9:03AM EDT




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EURUSD: Bullish, Extends Gain.

EURUSD: More bullish offensive is now building up as EUR continues to hold on to its bull pressure. Resistance resides at the 1.3150 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3242 level. A break through here will resume its medium term uptrend. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at the 1.2932 level followed by the 1.2795/35 levels, its key support levels. Below here will push it further lower towards the 1.2650 level and then the 1.2600 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its medium term downside bias.



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The EUR/USD has managed to recover ground, and approaches the end of the week holding around key 1.3200 mark, that caped the upside several times since early March, developing a bullish set up that may need of further upward momentum this upcoming week to be complete. While the ECB provided a positive outlook regardless the crisis is still going on, the fact that US QE tapering this summer is no longer likely, has sent dollar down particularly against its European rivals.*As for the technical picture, the daily chart shows indicators still in positive territory losing some momentum near overbought territory but far from signaling a reversal. The fact that short term buyers are surging in current 1.3200 area is pretty significant in a post Payroll Friday, and risk to the downside will only surge below the 1.3050 area, too far away right now.

With a significant high at 1.3240 and another at this week high of 1.3305, expect stops to gather above those levels, larger ones in the latest:, if triggered, a run towards *1.3420/50 price zone seems more than likely this week, and even an extension towards 1.3500. Further gains above this last however, seem not as likely at the time being: the EU is not ready to deal with an expensive currency and runs above the level should remain short lived.




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