Forex Strategies

GBPUSD: 1.5196
Short-Term Trend: downtrend
Outlook:

The expected recovery did occur and GBP rallied to 1.5240 last week. Now, it seems the larger-degree downtrend has resumed, but to confirm we need a move below 1.5000. I expect this to hapen early this week. Below 1.5000 we can expect a downside acceleratio and quick losses twd 1.4560 level.
On the upside, only a move abv 1.5320/30 negates and risks larger recovery twd 1.5600 before the bears take control again...
Strategy: Holding short from1.5180 is favored. Stop=1.5330.


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Market Commentary

Greenback traded strong against most of the FX majors on the event of profit taking witnessed in most of the asset classes especially in the benchmark equity index of Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA). The Dollar Index (DX) after trading sideways between 84.50 and 83.50 for couple of weeks closed below the support of 83.50 ranges to slip to interim support of 83.00 ranges; consistently trading below 83.50 would drag the index further to 82.45 ranges.
The benchmark equity index of the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) seems to be over stretched though the major trend is still intact till DJIA manages to trade above 14860 ranges. Historic correlation between DX Vs DJIA the long term trend is still Dollar bearish till the Dollar Index is not closing above 88.40 with 84.50 ranges acting as intermediate resistance.

Sideways-Up	1.3110	1.3060	1.2960	1.2940
Sideways-Down	102.20	101.20	99.80	99.50
Sideways	1.5280	1.5250	1.5150	1.5120
Sideways-Down	0.9660	1.5250	0.9500	0.9480
Sideways	132.80	131.40	129.90	127.50
Sideways	0.9730	0.9660	0.9575	0.9520

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Scanning for chart patterns

Automatically identify trading opportunities by analyzing chart and Fibonacci patterns real time. Save up to $99.75!

As can be seen from the following trade opportunity alert for EUR/CHF, the pair recently broke the 30-minute Key Support Level 1.242 identified by Autochartist. The price is set to reach the target level 1.2355 in 2 trading days.

The stop-level for this bearish forecast is set at 1.2517. The breakout of this support level continues the preceding downward price thrust from the major resistance level 1.2570 (A), which previously reversed the pair sharply down at the start of 2013 (as can be seen on the third chart below). The following Volatility Analysis confirms this bearish forecast.



As is visible from the following Volatility Analysis chart for EUR/CHF, the lower boundary of the daily Expected Price Range calculated by Autochartist for this pair (1.2353) stands within 2 pip’s distance of the target level given in the above trade opportunity alert (1.2355) – which adds to the likelihood the price will soon fall to 1.2355.



The daily EUR/CHF chart below demonstrates the earlier price action near the resistance level 1.2570:





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Dow Jones :
Resistance(daily close) : 14855.63, 15021.70, 15159.38 and 15404.28. Breaking of the latter would give 15643.13, 15845.63, 16022.80

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USD/JPY 4H chart 9:07AM EDT 6/3/2013



Correction structure: The USD/JPY has been in a correction since hitting the 103.72, 2013-high. The first correction wave came down to 100.66, and was in an abc manner. Then from the 102.55 pivot, another corrective wave pushed prices down to about 100.00 handle, which is holding so far in the 6/3 US session. You can see that the second wave down was in a falling wedge structure with price nearing the apex.

It’s not clear what the entire correction structure will be, but it appears to be also a larger wedge forming, though I think another hold of falling resistance will be needed to qualify as a wedge.

Below the 99.90 pivot, the next key support will be the rising trendline seen in the daily chart, going back to Nov. 2012 when the USD/JPY started to take off.

Momentum: The 4H RSI shows that the bullish momentum is still maintained, or at least that the recent bearish price action does not have bearish momentum in this time-frame.

The US NFP data scheduled for release this Friday will likely be the key event risk this week, and I like the chances the market will hold at or above the 99.90-100.00 area. On the other hand, the USD/JPY might have difficulty reaching back to the 2013-high ahead of the Friday even risk as well and the 102.55 local resistance pivot should be monitored as a limit to the upside risk until after we get the jobs data.

USD/JPY daily chart 6/3/2013




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GBP/USD 4H chart 6/3/2013 6:55AM EDT



Double bottom target: After completing a double bottom, GBP/USD continued higher, retreated from 38.2% retracement, and then respected the double bottom as a bottom. The double bottom breakout target using its width projects to just under 1.53. There was also a resistance pivot at 1.5280, and 50% retracement at 1.5306. The 1.5280-1.5306 area therefore should be monitored, and if there is no uptrend yet, we could see some resistance here.

Topping clues: When looking at the 1H chart, we see that price action has been bullish, and the RSI pushed above 70. Maybe, we should see if a bearish divergence can form. Then, it would be more reason to believe that this 1.52890-1.5306 area can provide resistance for a bearish swing at least in the very short-term. A break of a projected short-term TL should also improve likelihood of the pair falling back into the bottom area around 1.5010.

We have the BoE interest rate policy meeting on Thursday, so bullish or bearish anticipation should be limited to the intra-day basis.




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GBP/USD soared this Monday on better than expected UK Manufacturing PMI, reaching 1.5287 and holding onto its gains, despite local share markets can’t made it to the green. The dollar is mostly bearish across the board, although little action has been seen so far in other major crosses. The 4 hours chart shows price managed to break above 200 EMA which now offers dynamic support around 1.5250, while indicators head north in positive territory, with a strong upward momentum, and 20 SMA also gaining bullish slope. Overall, the pair will maintain the bullish tone as long as above 1.5240, former highs, with a break above 1.5290 signaling a short term continuation towards the 1.5330 price zone.Steady losses below 1.5240 will deny the possibility of an advance today, and probably see price retracing towards 1.5190 area.




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Thursday sees Central bank policy decisions by the ECB and Bank of England. Both are expected to hold key rates steady, but are thought to be looking for creative means for promoting economic growth . Dollar falls broadly due to weak U.S. ISM data The greenback fell sharply against others peers on Monday as the report showed the manufacturing sector in U.S. contracted for the first time in six months, dampening expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce its stimulus program …wait and watch
Have a nice trading day ahead of you !
EUR/USD (last 1.3062)

Support
1.2992 (S1)
1.2930 (S2)
1.2870 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
1.3138 (R1)
1.3238 (RR)
1.3385 (RRR)
RANGE – 13138---12970—13266
STRATEGY
Wait and watch for the euro can go higher towards 13230
Trend
Bull as long as 12955 holds on any correction
Mid term Trade
Long @1.2990 Stop@ 1.2941 Tgt 13208
Short@1.3324 Stop@13359 tgt 1.3147 (parked)
Intraday
Trad#1 Long@12982 stop@12943 tgt 13156 (New parked orders)
Trade#2 Day trade short@13254 Stop@13278 tgt 13124
GBP USD (CABLE) (15286)

Support:
1.5220 (S1)
1.5100 (SS2)
1.4970 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
1.5355 ®
1.5483 (Res)
15572 (**Major Resistance)
Range 15478---15575—15160
STRATEGY SOS (short on strength)
Trend is on the higher side near 15570 to go short on MOC on Thursday we will update on that day When it hit 15570 area ----
Day Traders
PARKED ORDERS
Mid term
Mid term or for the week
Trade #1 Long@1.5092 stop@15019 tgt 15520
Trade #2 short@15570 stop@15623 tgt 15375
Intra day trade
Trade#1 Long@15248 stop@15216 tgt 15488
Trade#2 Short@15571 stop@15614 tgt 15385
(Plz note on all the intra day of not filled By the same Day till MOC then Cancel the Trade)
USD/JPY (Yen) (100.26)

Support:
9915 (S1)
9855 (S2)
9775 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
10146** (R1)
10272 (RR)
10355 (RRR3)
Range -10272----9833—9992
MID term
Long@98.45 stop@9767 tgt 10251
Short term
Short@10547 stop@ 10579 tgt 9988 (New parked order)
June Swiss (10535)

Support:
10455 (S1)
10385 (SS2.)
10296 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
10614(Res1)
10716 (RR2)
10840 (RES3)
Range of the day 10116----10596--10326
Strategy SOS
long@10316 stop@10295 tgt 10466
Trade #1 Short@10693 stop@10718 tgt 10443
June Futures Cad $ (9683)

Flat
Support:
9617 (S1)
.9538 (Sup2.)
.9475 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
9763 (R)
9791 (Res2)
9866 (Res3)
Range of the Day 9575---9928---9724
MID TERM TRADE
Trade #1 long@ 9623 add 9592 stop@9568 tgt 9788
Short@9864 stop@9886 tgt 9718
Ausie $ June (9662)

Support:
.9620 (S1)
9570 (Sup2.)
9490 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
9743 (Res1)
9844 (Res2)
9917 (Res3)
Range for the Day -- 9866---9762---9544
Trend – Short term Bullish
MID Term
Short 10264 stop@10316 tgt 9856
Day trade
Trade#1 Short @9918 stop@9967 tgt 9790 first
Trade#2 long@9633 stop @9597 tgt 9788 (Parked new order)
XAUUSD (GOLD) (1405)

Strategy SoS From 1440 ish area
Support:
1385.60 (S1)
1365.5 (S2)
1326 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
1417 (Res1)
1426.7* (Res2)
1443.6*** (Res3)
Range of the Day 1371---1408- 1441
MiD Term
Short@1505 Stop@1528.75 Tgt 1265 (new parked order)
Long @1202.2 stop@1188. tgt 1415(Parked and waiting)
Day Trade
Very RISKy stay on the side line
Short@1441.8 stop@1448.8 tgt 1408
#2 Short @1467 stop@1478 tgt 1382
#3 long@1308 stop@1302 tgt 1338 (New parked orders)
# 4 Long@1385 stop @1378 tgt 1416
XAGUSD ( SILVER May) (22.54)

Flat
Support:
22.05 (S1)
21.30 (s2)
1940 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
2314 (Res)
2406 (RR)
2514 (Major resistance)
2120---24.34—19.07
Strategy
MiD TERM
Wait for Long @19.02 stop@18.87 tgt 23.55
High risk day Trade
#1 Short@2415 Stop@2447 tgt 2245
# 2 long@2145 stop@2117 tgt 2312 (New parked)
#3 Short@2337 stp @2364 tgt 2204
June ES (MINI Sp500) (1636)

Strategy (Sos) Short on strength
Pattern
Support:
1628 (S1)
1616 (s2)
1587 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
1655.7(R)
1678 (Major resistance)
1692 **********
Range for the day
1616.---1649---1597.
Strategy
Short@1650 stp @1656 tgt 1616 (New parked order)
July oil (9285)

Strategy
Support:
9218 (S1)
9158 (S2)
9080 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
93.18 (Res)
9465 (Res2)
9570 (Major resistance)
Range of the day 95.78---90.27—9178
Strategy
Mid Term
Long@85.88 stop@84.75 tgt 89.40 ( parked )
High Risk Day Trade
Trade#1 Short@9396 Stop@ 9428 tgt 9148 (New Parked orders)
Trade#2 long@9108 stop@9062 tgt 9215
Ranges for the other market
DJ
Nq
Time line For short term cyclical projections
GMT
---GMT
For ---
---- is minor turn cycle for the day
For the Fellow Traders plz do place the stops and intraday Trade means if not filled by MOC cancel the Trades


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USDJPY extended its weakness yesterday towards 100.00 psychological level and even 99.00 that we have been focusing on in our past updates. Well, we anticipated a larger impulsive drop in black wave 3, but notice that pair is now reversing sharply from the lower side of a trading channel. This is usually the first sign that whole pull-back is corrective. With that in mind, its better to stay aside now and wait on possible break through the upper side of a trading channel that would put bullish waves back in play.

USDJPY 4h





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CAD/HKD 1H Chart

Emerging Pattern: Channel Up

After reaching a low of 7.4501 CAD/HKD commenced a rally, forming a channel up. At the moment, however, the currency pair undergoes a bearish correction that may result in a dip down to 7.4992 (200-hour SMA), as it has just encountered an upper boundary of the channel. According to traders’ sentiment, the market also expects softer loonie in the near future.



CHF/SGD 1H Chart

Emerging Pattern: Channel Up

The Swiss Franc started to consistently outperform its counterpart from Singapore already in the mid-May, but the up-trend became more orderly 161 hours ago, being shaped by two parallel lines. While the technical indicators are unable to give a certain answer, there is a strong conviction among traders that CHF/SGD will continue to rise.



AUD/CHF 1H Chart

Emerging Pattern: Channel Down

Recently the pace of Aussie’s debasement has increased, leading to the channel down pattern you may see above, since the price proved to be unable to breach the 200-hour SMA. Technical studies largely give ‘sell’ signals, reinforcing the belief that AUD/CHF will fail to overcome a key resistance at 0.9296/88. On the other hand, 62% of traders hold long positions.




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