Forex Strategies

The Australian dollar is about to close a fifth week down against the greenback, having seen no relief on its selling momentum despite dollar selloff against other rivals. Trading at levels not seen since October 2011, the daily chart shows that indicators corrected most of the extreme oversold reading reached past week, but price continues heading lower, which suggest we have not seen a bottom yet in the pair.A significant support is located at 0.9386, October 2011 monthly low, and several monthly highs a few pips away from late 2009, early 2010, which means the level will be key for the future of the pair: while some bounce should be expected on the first attempt to break below it, a shallow bounce will maintain high the risk of a break lower, looking then for 0.9000 figure as next possible target.

Gains will find buyers waiting around 2 key resistances area, first one around 0.9570, second one at 0.9660. However, a steady recovery above 0.9700 is what it takes to call for an interim bottom and see further recoveries in the pair.




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USDJPY: With USDJPY selling off through its rising trendline on Thursday and following through lower, further corrective weakness is likely. Support comes in at the 95.54 level where a violation will aim at the 95.00 level. Further down, support stands at the 94.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, the pair will have to return above its broken trendline to create scope for more upside towards the 100.54 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 102.00 level where a violation will call for a run at the 103.73 level. On the whole, USDJPY is vulnerable on correction.



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Chart in Focus: Daily EURUSD

The EURUSD surged higher this week and tested the key resistance up near 1.3200 - 1.3250. The market is currently consolidating just below that resistance after stalling out today. Near-term momentum has clearly been bullish, but we could see a rotation back down to support before the upward momentum resumes. Traders can keep an eye out for price action sell signals on the 4 hour or daily chart up near this current 1.3200 - 1.3250 resistance. If the market does move lower we can then look for price action buy signals from support down near 1.3000 area to trade back in-line with the overall bullish momentum in this market right now.


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EURUSD: 1.3216
Short-Term Trend: sideways
Outlook:

EUR/USD moved abv 1.3195 level last week and that solidified our bullish expectations here. Now, the immediate trend is up, though the daily chart remains in a sideways mode (as all moving averages are trading sideways).* And as long as abv 1.3195 we can expect futher gains. Wavewise, the outlook is still a bit uncertain.* If wave D on the chart above ends at April low, then the current upside is considered limited and most likely EUR will form a top near 1.3520 level. If wave D ends at May low, then we can expect a much bigger move up twd 1.3720 and 1.4045.

On the downside, firm and sustained trading below 1.3195 will negate the last week's breakout. And below 1.3045 will shift the focus on the downside for 1.2870...
Strategy: Holding long from 1.3015 is favored against 1.3040 . Target=1.3500.


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Dow Jones :
Resistance(daily close) : 14855.63, 15021.70, 15159.38 and 15404.28. Breaking of the latter would give 15643.13, 15845.63, 16022.80

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GBP/USD 1H chart 6/10/2013 10:05AM EDT



Consolidation, rising trendline: The trendline noted in the title refers to a very short-term one that started from the 1.5007 low on 5/29. 1.5606 was the May high and it was cracked, but GBP/USD is consolidating. It is finding some support near 1.5480 and is trading sideways with low volatility to start the week. As we get int the 6/10 US session, price is nearing the short-term rising trendline.

Direction: There is bullish bias here in the 1H time-frame so a bounce off the rising trendline could be a sign of bullish continuation. Breaking back above 1.56-15610 first opens up the 1.5680 high. Note in the daily chart that this bullish scenario pushes cable above the 200-day SMA, putting GBP/USD in a bullish mode. But, the first challenge to a bullish scenario is the 61.8% retracement at 1.5764.

If the rising trendline fails to hold, the market could be looking to retreat toward the 1.50 psychological levle.

If GBP/USD retreats from around 61.8% retracement and comes falls below 1.56, it would neutralize the bullish outlook, and suggest more of a sideways market in the daily chart.

GBP/USD daily chart 6/10/2013 10:06AM EDT




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EUR/USD 1H chart 6/10/2013 8:25AM EDT



Consolidation: The EUR/USD continues to consolidate after stalling around the 1.33 handle last Friday. It has come down before 1.32, but is basically starting the week oscillating around 1.32. The structure of the consolidation is “flag” like, and looks corrective against the previous upswing. A break above 1.3250 could revive the current short-term uptrend seen in the 1H chart.

Trendline: If price falls below 1.32, it will be challenged by a rising short-term trendline. A break below that will be needed to revive a bearish outlook.

Momentum: The RSI shows a market that recently established bullish momentum and has kept it for the most part. If the RSI reading can hold above 40 and pop back above 60, bullish momentum prevails.

Breakout, targets: A break below the rising trendline with a loss of bullish momentum in the 1H chart can open up the 1.30 psychological handle first, and then a pivot at 1.2950. Below that, we have a more bearish outlook possibly to the May lows around 1.28 and the 2013-lows
around 1.2750.

A break above the flag pattern is actually part of a larger bullish breakout above the April and May highs in the 1.32-1.3240 area. When you look at the daily chart, you see that the break has opened up the 1.3709, 2013-high, but in the near-term, we should monitor the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3340.

EUR/USD 1H chart 6/10/2013 8:33AM EDT





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EURJPY: Halts Decline, Risk Turns To The 131.40 Level & Beyond.

EURJPY - With the cross halting its decline on Friday and following through higher during Monday trading today, there is risk of continued upside recovery. This should open the door for more strength towards the 131.40 level, its Jun 05’2013 high followed by the 132.07 level and ultimately its year-to-date high at the 133.81 level. Its daily RSI has turned higher supporting this view. On further downside, support comes in at the 129.06 level where a violation if seen will turn focus to the 126.15 level. We may see a halt here but if broken expect the cross to weaken further towards the 125.50 level and then the 125.00 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside in the medium term.



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EUR/USD has formed a Channel Up pattern on the 1H chart. The pattern has 54% quality and 74% magnitude in the 162-bar period.

The pattern began on 30th of May when the pair peaked to 1.3062; at the moment it is trading at 1.3260. Trading volume seems to be holding at the same level in the length of the pattern. Technical indicators on aggregate point at appreciation of the pair on 1D horizon suggesting it should continue following patterns, upward sloping, trend. Long traders could focus on the daily pivot (R1)/Bollinger band at 1.3289/98 and daily pivots at 1.3352 (R2) and 1.3381 (R3).

Short traders, who expect that pair might breach pattern’s support, could focus on the 20-bar SMA/pattern’s support/daily pivot (PP) at 1.3249/33, Bollinger band/daily pivot (S1) at 1.3199/97 and daily pivot (S2) at 1.3141.



EUR/NZD 1H Chart

Emerging Pattern: Channel Up

EUR/NZD has been trading within the boundaries of the Channel Up pattern for the last 100 hours and is poised for even more gains, according to the near-term technical studies. However, traders are not confident in bullishness of the currency pair, they are equally divided between the bulls and the bears.



NZD/CAD 1H Chart

Emerging Pattern: Channel Down

The leg down NZD/CAD has been forming for 186 hours is a continuation of a down-trend the pair started late April. There was a protracted bullish correction in the second part of May, but it seems that market participants do not expect something similar to occur in the nearest future—at the moment 72% of them are short.



NZD/CHF 1H Chart

Emerging Pattern: Channel Down

Despite narrowness of the channel—only 100 pips, NZD/CHF has been consistently respecting both falling trend-lines since May 28. Going forward, there is no reason to assume that the downward momentum is exhausted and the pair is going to change direction—technicals are giving ‘sell’ signals and 71% of open positions are short. Still, if the support at 0.7321 is able to prevent development of a dip, there is a risk of a double bottom, a reversal pattern.




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Scanning for chart patterns[/URL][/h]Automatically identify trading opportunities by analyzing chart and Fibonacci patterns real time. Save up to $99.75!

NZD/JPY recently corrected up from the lower trendline of the 4-hour Down Channel chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the charts – as can be seen from the following trade alert for this pair. The price is expected to rise to the target level 83.035 in 4 trading days. The stop-loss for this bullish forecast is set at the close price level 75.805 (point A, the bottom of this chart pattern). This point was formed previously when NZD/JPY reversed up from the powerful support zone set between the support level 75.50 and the 38,2% Fibonacci Correction of the preceding weekly upward thrust from the middle of 2012 (as can be seen on the next chart below).



The weekly NZD/JPY chart below displays the support levels mentioned above:





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