Forex Strategies

The USD/JPY has finally reached the 103.60 price zone, strong long term resistance: if you watch your monthly chart, you will find several lows around the level, between 2004 and 2008. More important, after reaching the level the pair shed near 300 pips in less than 24 hours: is that the first sign of a top in USD/JPY? Probably not, as the pair has steadily advanced around 670 pips just this May, and price bounced strongly up on an attempt to break below the 38.2% retracement, around 101.20 area. *As long as dips towards that level, or even below it attract buyers, the downside seems limited in the midterm.*A weekly close below that mark will be however a different story, with further downward correction expected towards 99.50/70 price zone, 61.8% retracement of the same rally and past April highs. Daily chart shows indicators heading lower, finally correcting the overbought readings seen for the past two weeks, which supports some probable correction ahead. However, even if the 99.50/70 area is reached, the long term perspective won’t change as a quick recovery should follow on approaches to the 100.00 level.

But the upside seems now not that easy after 8 months of straight rises and 103.60 has proved strong. Investors will need a high dose of convincement to continue buying at current levels, either further BOJ easing or signs of dollar strength, neither quite clear at the time being. Steady gains above 103.60 however, should lead to an extension towards 105.00, this upcoming week, as there’s not much in the middle.



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Chart in Focus: Daily EURUSD

The EURUSD pin bar setup that we discussed earlier this week has seen price move sideways to higher over the last two days. The market did show some rejection of 1.2950 - 1.3000 key resistance today but it's looking more like the market is taking on a neutral tone at this point. That 1.3000 resistance level is really the "line in the sand" for next week, and the market will need to stay contained below that level to have a chance at breaking lower. Otherwise, we could see more consolidation or a possible break out up above 1.3000 resistance. We will keep an eye on the price action near 1.2950 - 1.3000 early next week and update traders as changes develop.

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EURUSD: 1.2928
Short-Term Trend: sideways
Outlook:

A week ago I said the picture in EUR/USD was unclear. And the wave structure of the move up from July 2012 low is still quite unclear. The Short-Term price action since the early April low is also unclear. That being said, the oultook is neutral as long as the prices stay between 1.2670 and 1.3195 levels. We need a move either below 1.2670 or above 1.3195 to confirm the direction of the next significant leg here. My feeling is that a move up will develop, but right now that's just a feeling, nothing more. A sustained move abv 1.2995 however, will be a good sign that the bulls have taken the upper hand here...
Strategy: Stand aside.


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GBP/JPY 4H chart 7:25AM EDT 5/28/2013



Topping action: The 4H GBP/JPY chart shows a market that has put in a top after it broke below a range roughly between 154.90-156.75. It has found support at a support area around 152.65, though we saw some spikes below.

Pullback: As we get started with the 5/28 US trading session, GBP/JPY has already popped up from that support area and is about to test some resistance factors around 154.90-155. Here is a previous support resistance pivot, which will be coincident with a falling trendline.

Momentum: The 4H RSI shows a market trying to establish bearish momentum when the reading was dragged to 30. If the 4H RSI holds below 60 on this pullback, that bearish momentum can still be maintained, but for now the mometnum it has turned from bullish to sideways.

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XAU/USD 1H chart 5/28/2013 6:46AM EDT



1H Range: In the 1H gold chart, you can see a market settling in a range with resistance around 1400, and support around 1355. As we begin the 5/28 US session, gold is trading in the middle of this range, finding some support so far after a dip to 1377.30, a previous support pivot, and central pivot of the range. Basically, below 1377, the focus could turn to the downside of the range toward the 1354.40-1359.55 support area.

4H Range, RSI: When you look at the 4H chart, gold appears to have established a wider a range between 1321.53 and 1488. Above the smaller range, there is a pivot around 1419. Above that we might have some upside toward 1476-1488 resistance area, especially if the RSI breaks above 60 in the 4H chart. Otherwise, if the RSI is held below 60 the bearish momentum is maintained in this time-frame. Instead, if price falls below 1354 and drags the RSI below 40, we will likely focus on pivots near 1336 and 1321.50 with bearish momentum.

Risk events to break range: Thursday’s US Q1 GDP data could help gold shake out of the range in the 1H chart. But if employment data as well as more current data have more importance than the GDP estimate for Q1, then it might take the US NFP report next Friday to break gold out of its larger range in the 4H chart. These two scheduled releases have the best chance to become gold’s range-breakout fuel, but of course there can be unscheduled surprises, but I think these headlines will have to effect the way the market perceives the Fed’s plan in exiting QE.

XAU/USD 4H chart 5/28/2013 6:53AM EDT



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Worry is being expressed about bank losses on their substantial JGB holdings in Japan and a lot of key data in USA would clear the things and direction of the market and help the investor to make decisions
wait and watch
Have a nice trading day ahead of you !
Cheers !
EUR/USD (last 1.2932)

Support:
1.2881 (S1)
1.2814 (S2)
1.2722 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
1.2968 (R1)
1.3086 (RR)
1.3185 (RRR)
RANGE – 13085---12870—12780
STRATEGY
Let the market move higher towards 13084 + area or break below 12860 area to go short and hold for some sharp correction
Trend
Bear Will prevail once break below 12840
Mid term Trade
Long @1.2840 Stop@ 1.2811 Tgt 13035
Short@1.3094 Stop@13149 tgt 1.2947 (parked)
Intraday
Trad#1 Long@12882 stop@12855 tgt 13047 (filled and holding adjust the stop @12883)
Trade#2 Day trade short@13184 Stop@13208 tgt 12994
GBP USD (CABLE) (15110)

Support:
1.5070 (S1)
1.4945 (S2)
1.4883 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
1.5247 ®
1.5373 (Res)
15527 (**Major Resistance)
Range 15378---15017--14920
STRATEGY SOS (short on strength)
Trend Bias intra day Bounce till it reaches around 15500 in next two weeks
Day Traders
PARKED ORDERS
Mid term
Mid term or for the week
Trade #1 Long@1.4926 stop@14892 tgt 15126
Trade #2 short@15520 stop@15553 tgt 15075
Intra day trade
Trade#1 Long@1.4986 stop@14956 tgt 15188
Trade#2 Short@15271 stop@15314 tgt 15085
(Plz note on all the intra day of not filled By the same Day till MOC then Cancel the Trade)
USD/JPY (Yen) (102.26)

Support:
10155 (S1)
10085 (S2)
9750 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
10306** (R1)
10392 (RR)
10485 (RRR3)
Range -10292----10443—9992
MID term
Long@99.45 stop@98.77 tgt 10251.
Short term
Short@10547 stop@ 10579 tgt 9988 (New parked order)
June Swiss (10326)

Support:
10295 (S1)
10245 (S2.)
10066 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
10434 (Res1)
10516 (RR2)
10648 (RES3)
Range of the day 10116----10496--10261
Strategy SOS
long@10221 stop@10204 tgt 10315
Trade #1 Short@10563 add 10643 stop@10688 tgt 10265
June Futures Cad $ (9667)

Flat
Support:
9607 (S1)
.9578 (Sup2.)
.9515 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
9723 (R)
9791 (Res2)
9866 (Res3)
Range of the Day 9575---9928---9724
MID TERM TRADE
Trade #1 long@ 9623 add 9592 stop@9568 tgt 9708 (New parked order)
Short@9844 stop@9866 tgt 9607
Ausie $ June (9672)

Support:
.9590 (S1)
9520 (Sup2.)
9442 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
9743 (Res1)
9844 (Res2)
9917 (Res3)
Range for the Day -- 9866---9762---9544
Trend – Short term Bullish
MID Term
Short 10264 stop@10316 tgt 9856
Day trade
Trade#1 Short @9918 stop@9967 tgt 9790 first
Trade#2 long@9572 add @9548 stop @9517 tgt 9788 (Parked new order)
XAUUSD (GOLD) (1379)

Strategy SoS From 1440 ish area
Support:
1365.60 (S1)
1332.5 (S2)
1226 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
1407 (Res1)
1426.7* (Res2)
1443.6*** (Res3)
Range of the Day 1331---1408- 1441
MiD Term
Short@1505 Stop@1528.75 Tgt 1265 (new parked order)
Long @1202.2 stop@1188. tgt 1415 (Parked and waiting)
Day Trade
Very RISKy stay on the side line
Short@1441.8 stop@1448.8 tgt 1408
#2 Short @1467 stop@1478 tgt 1382
#3 long@1308 stop@1302 tgt 1338 (New parked orders)
# 4 Long@1370 stop @1363 tgt 1406
XAGUSD (SILVER May) (22.28)

Flat
Support:
22.05 (S1)
21.30 (s2)
1940 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
2314 (Res)
2406 (RR)
2514 (Major resistance)
2120---24.34—19.07
Strategy
MiD TERM
Wait for Long @19.02 stop@18.87 tgt 23.55
High risk day Trade
#1 Short@2415 Stop@2447 tgt 2245
# 2 long@2185 stop@2173 tgt 2302 (New parked)
#3 Short@2337 stp @2364 tgt 2244
June ES (MINI Sp500) (1662)

Strategy (Sos) Short on strength
Pattern
Support:
1648 (S1)
1616. (s2)
1587 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
1665.7 (R)
1678 (Major resistance)
1692 **********
Range for the day
1626.---1669---1612.
Strategy
Short@1658 stp @1665 tgt 1618 (Filled and adjust the stop@1669 and one more short @1666)
July oil (9505)

Strategy

Support:
9280 (S1)
9208 (S2)
9080 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
94.98 (Res)
9565 (Res2)
9670 (Major resistance)
Range of the day 95.78---97.27—9178
Strategy
Mid Term
Long@85.88 stop@84.75 tgt 89.40 (parked)
High Risk Day Trade
Trade#1 Short@9596 Stop@ 9628 tgt 9278 (New Parked orders)
Trade#2 long@9280 stop@9248 tgt 9395
Ranges for the other market
DJ
Nq
Time line For short term cyclical projections
GMT
---GMT
For ---
---- is minor turn cycle for the day
For the Fellow Traders plz do place the stops and intraday Trade means if not filled by MOC cancel the Trades



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After a period of tight consolidation below the 38.2% retracement of this May run, the USD/JPY soared to 102.28 today, following Nikkei come back: the index recovered some of its latest losses, closing up 1.2%. As for the USD/JPY, the pair stalled around the 23.6% retracement of the same rally, around 102.15, and the 4 hours chart shows that price is so far unable to firm up above the level, while technical indicators lost upward momentum around their midlines. In the hourly chart, price recovered above 100 SMA, but 200 one offers dynamic resistance around 102.20 also, making of the area, the immediate resistance level to watch, as a break above it should anticipate more recoveries. In the short term, next resistance area stands around 102.60 ahead of 103.00 price zone.*With US Consumer confidence to be released later today, the number could well be the trigger the pair needs to continue advancing, if it exceeds expectations. A really disappointing reading on the other hand, may help the pair regain the downside with 101.20/30 area then at sight.



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EUR/USD 4H chart 5/30/2013 9:17AM EDT



Triangle, consolidation: EUR/USD has been trading in a triangle since May 10, when it established the highest resistance pivot of the triangle at 1.3050. This reflects a market that is consolidating. We know that the consolidation range is even larger than this triangle, between the 2013-low of 1.2744 and the May high of 1.3240.

GDP, Jobless claims, 1.30: I noted in a previous EUR/USD update that some key risk events can push EUR/USD out of its ranges. The GDP was the first one noted, and it indeed was a negative surprise, revising Q1 GDP to 2.4% from the advanced estimate of 2.5%. Jobless claims was higher than forecast and last week’s reading. The USD did not like it, and EUR/USD is now pushing at the 1.30 handle, trying to break the triangle to the upside.

Its not clear what the market has in stall for us. But I think the bullish outlook at the moment should be limited to 1.3050. This is also coincident with a falling trendline from end-of-April, start-of-May and basically the middle of the larger range noted above. Above 1.3050, we might put the focus toward the 1.32-1.3240 resistance area. With the ECB interest rate meeting and US NFP next week, expect some choppiness even if it can move toward 1.32.


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Yen may have strengthened up this week, but not at much as you may think: the USD/JPY is closing the week barely unchanged from past Sunday opening. And while a top may be underway, further confirmation is needed, as the movement may still be just a mere correction: dips below 101.00 found buyers over the past few days, although price is unable to recover strongly above the level.The daily chart shows a strong bearish momentum coming from technical indicators, yet price steadily stubborn above key support around 99.80 area, former highs: as long as above the level, risk of a deeper movement remains limited, and buyers won’t hesitate to add, although maintaining actual rush to take profits out of the table pretty quick. *Steady gains above 102.00 are now required to deny the downside, with scope then for a recovery towards 103.60 area.

On the other hand, a daily close below 99.70 should see a downward continuation, with scope to test 96.60 price zone, where the daily chart presents several daily highs and lows over the past few months. Further falls are unlikely and a strong midterm bounce higher should be expected, if price approaches to this area next week.




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Market players have many questions and luckily, the answer to all will be available next week, with *the ECB Meeting and the US monthly employment data. The EUR/USD has been trading on the back of speculation this week, rising when the US data disappoints, guaranteeing the permanence of QE, and falling on market talks the ECB can bring another rate cut next week or even negative deposit rates.As for the technical picture, the daily chart reflects current market stress and lack of direction, as price is about to close the week pretty much unchanged from its weekly opening of 1.2930. The 1.2800/40 area attracted buyers on dips, 1.3000 sellers on spikes, and that’s have been pretty much it these past week for most of the time. Thursday spike to 1.3060 has been quickly erased, ending up as a false break.

As the consolidation extends, the daily chart shows 20 SMA maintaining a bearish tone while indicators hover around their midlines, with no actual strength. As for the levels to watch, risk to the downside increases below 1.2840, with the 1.2760, a daily ascendant trend line, as immediate support ahead of 1.2660, November 2012 low. A break above this week high of 1.3060 may support a continued advance towards 1.3200 level, where the pair found selling interest for most of past April. At this point, seems pretty unlikely the EUR will gather enough strength to overcome the level and kick start a bullish trend.




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