Trading News Events

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 weakened as gold prices and the US Dollar gained last week. Will risk aversion pickup in momentum ahead? Eyes turn to the Federal Reserve, European sentiment and US retail...

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The Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar and Euro await the RBA, BoC and ECB respectively. Brexit talks continue, and rising fears of a no-deal could weigh on the British Pound. Will the Dow Jones an...

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The Australian Dollar has soared back to the yearly open highs, seemingly dismissing the imminent onset of Australia’s first recession in 29 years.

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The coming week sees the start of a new month and a new quarter, when portfolio rebalancing could result in turbulent trading in major assets, including EUR/USD and the Euro crosses.

Data in the coming week include inflation and unemployment statistics from several EU countries and the Eurozone as a whole. However, with global markets expected to remain dominated by risk-on/risk-off trades on good news/bad news about the coronavirus, the numbers are not expected to have an impact on EUR/USD, which will likely continue to rise when the Covid-19 news is good and fall when it is bad.

EUR/USD fell back in the days ahead of and after the last quarter end on March 31. This time round, the outperformance of US stocks compared with Eurozone stocks in Q2 could lead to flows out of the US and into Europe, boosting EUR/USD. However, that could be offset by the Euro’s outperformance of the US Dollar over the same period.

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The European Council President is expected to propose a more modest EU budget this week. The Council is hoping EU leaders will agree to it at a summit later this month but wrangling over how best to help the weaker members of the blocrecover from the Covid-19 pandemic will likely continue. Unless the EU governments can sort out their disagreements soon, a drop is likely in EUR/USD in this year’s third quarter.

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If ECB President Christine Lagarde was hoping to curb the strength of EUR/USD last week, she failed. Instead, the pair is now well placed to reach new two-year highs above 1.20.

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Gold prices lack broader direction as the precious metal trends sideways amid conflicting fundamental signals largely due to swings in real yields around fiscal stimulus negations.



Gold prices could spike higher with potential for the US Dollar to weaken further if fiscal stimulus optimism can outshine skepticism. XAU/USD could decline, however, if the US Dollar strengthens as coronavirus concerns take hold and inflation expectations gravitate lower.

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Gold prices in USD-terms have rallied sharply this week, but gold’s gains lagged elsewhere. Thanks in part to US stimulus talks, US Dollar weakness is masking gold’s own bearish underlying fundamen...

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GBP underpinned as BoE downplays negative rates, alongside vaccine rollout.

GBP REJECTS RESISTANCE: In what has been relatively choppy week for FX markets, GBP/USD eked out minor gains of 0.2% (at the time of writing), while EUR/GBP headed towards key multi-month support at 0.8860-70. Back to GBP/USD and for those interested technical levels, the 20DMA resides at 1.3568, in which a close below could mark a double top at 1.37.

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The DXY Index has held onto key technical support, suggesting that bulls may have a bit more fight left yet.

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