Weekly Outlook: 2014, July 06 - 13

Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: July 7 - 11

The dollar edged lower against the yen amid profit taking on Friday, but still ended the week higher as a better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for June bolstered the outlook for the wider economic recovery.

USD/JPY was at 102.05 late Friday, off Thursday’s high of 102.25, but still 0.62% higher for the week.

The pair was likely to find support at 101.75, Thursday’s low and resistance at 102.25.

The Labor Department reported that that U.S. economy added 288,000 jobs last month, well above expectations for jobs growth of 212,000. The previous month’s figure was revisedup to a gain of 224,000 from a previously reported increase of 217,000.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.1% from 6.3% in May, the lowest in almost six years. The data was released a day early, ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Friday.

The upbeat data revived speculation over when the Federal Reserve may start to raise interest rates.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was at 80.31 late Friday, recovering from the two-month lows of 79.84 reached earlier in the week.

Elsewhere Friday, the euro slipped lower against the yen, with EUR/JPY down 0.24% to 138.74, off Thursday’s one-month highs of 139.26.

The euro came under pressure after the European Central Bank reiterated that it could use "unconventional measures" to combat persistently low levels of inflation in the euro area.

The ECB left all rates on hold on Thursday, in a widely anticipated decision, after cutting rates to record lows in June.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesdays’ minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, with few other major economic reports on the calendar.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of this and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday and Friday as there are no relevant events on these days.

Tuesday, July 8

• Japan is to release a report on the current account.

Wednesday, July 9

• The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its June meeting.

Thursday, July 10

• Japan is to publish core machinery orders and tertiary industry activity.
• The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

USD/CHF weekly outlook: July 7 - 11

The dollar rose to more than one-week highs against the Swiss franc on Friday a day after a robust U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for June sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve could bring forward its timetable for raising interest rates.

USD/CHF was at 0.8945 late Friday, up from 0.8885 on Thursday and ended the week with gains of 0.38%.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.8920 and resistance at 0.9000.

The greenback was boosted after the Labor Department reported that that U.S. economy added 288,000 jobs last month, well above expectations for jobs growth of 212,000.

The previous month’s figure was revised up to a gain of 224,000 from a previously reported increase of 217,000.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.1% from 6.3% in May, the lowest in almost six years. The data was released a day early, ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Friday.

The upbeat data revived speculation over when the Federal Reserve may start to raise interest rates.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was at 80.31 late Friday, recovering from the two-month lows of 79.84 reached earlier in the week.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesdays’ minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, while Switzerland is to release reports on inflation and retail sales. The Swiss central bank is also to publish its monthly report on currency reserves.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, July 7

• The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size of the bank’s operations in currency markets.

Tuesday, July 8

• Switzerland is to produce reports on consumer price inflation and retail sales.

Wednesday, July 9

• The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its June meeting.

Thursday, July 10

• The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

USD/CAD weekly outlook: July 7 - 11

The U.S. dollar moved higher against the Canadian dollar in holiday thinned trade on Friday, as markets in the U.S. remained closed for the Independence Day holiday.

USD/CAD ended Friday’s session at 1.0651, pulling back from the six month lows of 1.0619 hit in the previous session. For the week, the pair slipped 0.13%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0619 and resistance at 1.0680.

The greenback touched its 2014 lows against the loonie on Thursday after the Labor Department reported that that U.S. economy added 288,000 jobs last month, well above expectations for jobs growth of 212,000.

The previous month’s figure was revised up to a gain of 224,000 from a previously reported increase of 217,000.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.1% from 6.3% in May, the lowest in almost six years. The data was released a day early, ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Friday.

The upbeat data sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve could bring forward its timetable for raising interest rates.

The Canadian dollar continued to remain supported after recent stronger than expected inflation data for May fuelled expectations that the Bank of Canada could shift away from its neutral stance on interest rates. The loonie received an additional boost from rising oil prices in May, amid concerns over the ongoing insurgency in Iraq.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesdays’ minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, while Canada’s latest jobs report will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Tuesday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, July 7

• Canada is to publish data on building starts and the Ivey PMI.

Wednesday, July 9

• Canada is to publish data on housing starts.
• Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its June meeting.

Thursday, July 10

• The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, July 11

• Canada is to round up the week with data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate.

AUD/USD weekly outlook: July 7 - 11

The Australian dollar ended the week at a more than two-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, after a robust U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for June sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve could bring forward its timetable for raising interest rates.

AUD/USD hit 0.9327 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since June 18, before subsequently consolidating at 0.9365 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.2% for the day but 0.61% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9327, the low from July 3 and resistance at 0.9439, the high from July 3.

The U.S. dollar rallied across the board on Thursday after the U.S. Department of Labor said non-farm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 288,000 in June, easily surpassing expectations for an increase of 212,000.

The previous month’s figure was revised up to a gain of 224,000 from a previously reported increase of 217,000.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.1% from 6.3% in May, the lowest in almost six years. The data was released a day early, ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Friday.

The upbeat jobs report bolstered the outlook for the broader economic recovery and revived speculation over when the Fed may start to raise interest rates.

Meanwhile, the Aussie came under additional pressure after Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens said Thursday that the currency was overvalued and added that the central bank had “ammunition” to push interest rates even lower if necessary.

The RBA left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low 2.5% in a widely expected decision earlier in the week.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesdays’ minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, with few other major U.S. economic reports on the calendar. Meanwhile, Australia is to publish its latest jobs report.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, July 8

• Australia is to publish private sector data on business confidence.

Wednesday, July 9

• Australia is to produce a report on consumer sentiment.
• Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its June meeting.

Thursday, July 10

• Australia is to release data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, and a private sector report on inflation expectations.
• Later Thursday, the U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, July 11

• Australia is to publish data on home loans.

NZD/USD weekly outlook: July 7 - 11

The New Zealand dollar ended Friday’s session close to a one-week low against its U.S. counterpart, as a better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for June bolstered the outlook for the wider economic recovery.

NZD/USD hit 0.8716 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since June 25, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8740 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.17% for the day and 0.43% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8716, the low from July 3 and resistance at 0.8776, the high from July 3.

The U.S. dollar was boosted on Thursday after the U.S. Department of Labor said non-farm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 288,000 in June, easily surpassing expectations for an increase of 212,000.

The previous month’s figure was revised up to a gain of 224,000 from a previously reported increase of 217,000.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.1% from 6.3% in May, the lowest in almost six years. The data was released a day early, ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Friday.

The upbeat jobs report bolstered the outlook for the broader economic recovery and revived speculation over when the Fed may start to raise interest rates.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesdays’ minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, with few other major U.S. economic reports on the calendar.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday and Friday as there are no relevant events on these days.

Tuesday, July 8

• New Zealand is to publish private sector data on business confidence.

Wednesday, July 9

• The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its June meeting.

Thursday, July 10

• New Zealand is to release private sector data on manufacturing activity.
• Later Thursday, the U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

USD/GBP weekly outlook: July 7 - 11

The pound was close to its highest in almost six-years against the dollar on Friday, as expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of England this year continued to underpin demand for sterling.

GBP/USD was at 1.7158 late Friday, after touching highs of 1.7178 earlier, the most since October 2008.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.7125 and resistance at 1.8000.

Sterling has strengthened broadly since the start of this year, gaining more than 15% against the dollar amid expectations that the deepening U.K. recovery will prompt the BoE to raise rates before the end of the year.

Data on Thursday showed that activity in the U.K. service sector slowed slightly in June, but growth remained robust with new business growth and payrolls increasing.

The Markit U.K. services purchasing managers’ index slowed to 57.7 in June from 58.6 in May. It was the lowest reading in three months, but remained well above the 50 level separating growth from contraction.

In the U.S., a robust nonfarm payrolls report for June sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve could bring forward its timetable for raising interest rates.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that that U.S. economy added 288,000 jobs last month, well above expectations for jobs growth of 212,000.

The previous month’s figure was revised up to a gain of 224,000 from a previously reported increase of 217,000.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.1% from 6.3% in May, the lowest in almost six years. The data was released a day early, ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Friday.

Elsewhere Friday, the pound rose to almost two-year highs against the euro, with EUR/GBP down 0.14% to 0.7921, the weakest since September 2012.

The euro came under pressure after the European Central Bank reiterated that it could use "unconventional measures" to combat persistently low levels of inflation in the euro area.

The ECB left all rates on hold on Thursday, in a widely anticipated decision, after cutting rates to record lows in June.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesdays’ minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, with few other major U.S. economic reports on the calendar. Meanwhile, the BoE is to hold its monthly rate setting meeting.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday and Friday, as there are no relevant events on these days.

Tuesday, July 8

• The U.K. is to release data on manufacturing and industrial production.

Wednesday, July 9

• The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its June meeting.

Thursday, July 10

• The U.K. is to release data on the trade balance, while the BoE is to announce its benchmark interest rate.
• Later Thursday, the U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

EUR/USD weekly outlook: July 7 - 11

The euro fell to more than one-week lows against the dollar on Friday, one day after a robust U.S. employment report for June eased concerns over the outlook for the economic recovery.

EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3594, down 0.35% for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3550 and resistance at 1.3600.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that that U.S. economy added 288,000 jobs last month, well above expectations for jobs growth of 212,000. The previous month’s figure was revised up to a gain of 224,000 from a previously reported increase of 217,000.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.1% from 6.3% in May, the lowest in almost six years. The data was released a day early, ahead of Friday’s Independence Day holiday.

The upbeat data revived expectations that the Federal Reserve could bring forward its timetable for raising interest rates.

The euro came under pressure after the European Central Bank repeated its forward guidance that rates will remain on hold at present or lower levels for an extended period.

The ECB also reiterated that it could use "unconventional measures" to combat persistently low levels of inflation in the euro area.

The ECB left all rates on hold on Thursday, in a widely anticipated decision, after cutting rates to record lows in June.

The single currency was lower against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY down 0.24% to 138.74, off Thursday’s one-month highs of 139.26.

The euro fell to almost two-year lows against the stronger pound on Friday, with EUR/GBP down 0.14% to 0.7921, the weakest since September 2012.

Demand for sterling continued to be underpinned by expectations that the deepening economic recovery in the U.K. will prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates before the end of this year.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesdays’ minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, with few other major economic reports on the calendar.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of this and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, July 8

• In the euro zone, Germany is to publish data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

Wednesday, July 9

• The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its June meeting.

Thursday, July 10

• France is to publish reports on consumer prices and industrial production, while the ECB is to publish its monthly bulletin.
• Later Thursday, the U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, July 11

• Spain is to publish revised data on consumer inflation.

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